Intrinsic value of Cameco - CCJ

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$9.86

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$9.86

 
Intrinsic value

$2.44

 
Up/down potential

-75%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CCJ stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -11.72
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,800
  1,836
  1,878
  1,926
  1,981
  2,041
  2,107
  2,178
  2,256
  2,340
  2,429
  2,526
  2,628
  2,737
  2,853
  2,976
  3,107
  3,245
  3,391
  3,545
  3,708
  3,880
  4,061
  4,252
  4,453
  4,665
  4,889
  5,124
  5,371
  5,631
  5,905
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,672
  1,711
  1,754
  1,804
  1,858
  1,918
  1,983
  2,053
  2,129
  2,210
  2,288
  2,381
  2,480
  2,585
  2,697
  2,815
  2,940
  3,072
  3,212
  3,360
  3,516
  3,680
  3,853
  4,035
  4,227
  4,430
  4,643
  4,867
  5,102
  5,350
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,905
  1,672
  1,711
  1,754
  1,804
  1,858
  1,918
  1,983
  2,053
  2,129
  2,210
  2,288
  2,381
  2,480
  2,585
  2,697
  2,815
  2,940
  3,072
  3,212
  3,360
  3,516
  3,680
  3,853
  4,035
  4,227
  4,430
  4,643
  4,867
  5,102
  5,350
Operating income, $m
  -105
  164
  168
  172
  177
  183
  189
  196
  203
  211
  219
  237
  247
  257
  268
  279
  292
  305
  318
  333
  348
  364
  381
  399
  418
  438
  459
  481
  504
  529
  554
EBITDA, $m
  170
  446
  456
  468
  481
  495
  511
  529
  548
  568
  590
  613
  638
  664
  693
  722
  754
  788
  823
  861
  900
  942
  986
  1,032
  1,081
  1,132
  1,187
  1,244
  1,304
  1,367
  1,433
Interest expense (income), $m
  52
  52
  54
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  74
  78
  83
  88
  94
  100
  106
  113
  120
  127
  135
  144
  152
  162
  172
  182
  193
  205
  217
  230
  244
  258
  273
Earnings before tax, $m
  -114
  112
  114
  116
  118
  121
  123
  126
  129
  133
  136
  149
  153
  157
  162
  167
  172
  177
  183
  189
  196
  202
  209
  217
  225
  233
  242
  251
  261
  271
  281
Tax expense, $m
  -70
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  40
  41
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
Net income, $m
  -46
  82
  83
  85
  86
  88
  90
  92
  94
  97
  100
  109
  112
  115
  118
  122
  126
  130
  134
  138
  143
  148
  153
  158
  164
  170
  177
  183
  190
  198
  205

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  237
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,106
  5,980
  6,118
  6,275
  6,452
  6,647
  6,862
  7,096
  7,349
  7,621
  7,914
  8,227
  8,560
  8,916
  9,294
  9,695
  10,119
  10,569
  11,045
  11,547
  12,078
  12,638
  13,228
  13,850
  14,506
  15,197
  15,924
  16,689
  17,494
  18,342
  19,233
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,869
  5,980
  6,118
  6,275
  6,452
  6,647
  6,862
  7,096
  7,349
  7,621
  7,914
  8,227
  8,560
  8,916
  9,294
  9,695
  10,119
  10,569
  11,045
  11,547
  12,078
  12,638
  13,228
  13,850
  14,506
  15,197
  15,924
  16,689
  17,494
  18,342
  19,233
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
Average production assets, $m
  3,724
  3,799
  3,886
  3,986
  4,098
  4,222
  4,359
  4,507
  4,668
  4,841
  5,027
  5,225
  5,437
  5,663
  5,903
  6,158
  6,428
  6,713
  7,015
  7,335
  7,672
  8,027
  8,402
  8,798
  9,214
  9,653
  10,115
  10,601
  11,112
  11,650
  12,216
Working capital, $m
  1,164
  918
  939
  963
  990
  1,020
  1,053
  1,089
  1,128
  1,170
  1,215
  1,263
  1,314
  1,369
  1,427
  1,488
  1,553
  1,622
  1,695
  1,773
  1,854
  1,940
  2,031
  2,126
  2,227
  2,333
  2,444
  2,562
  2,685
  2,815
  2,952
Total debt, $m
  1,105
  1,146
  1,197
  1,257
  1,323
  1,397
  1,478
  1,566
  1,661
  1,764
  1,874
  1,992
  2,118
  2,252
  2,395
  2,546
  2,706
  2,876
  3,055
  3,244
  3,444
  3,655
  3,878
  4,113
  4,360
  4,620
  4,894
  5,183
  5,486
  5,806
  6,142
Total liabilities, $m
  2,214
  2,255
  2,306
  2,366
  2,432
  2,506
  2,587
  2,675
  2,770
  2,873
  2,983
  3,101
  3,227
  3,361
  3,504
  3,655
  3,815
  3,985
  4,164
  4,353
  4,553
  4,764
  4,987
  5,222
  5,469
  5,729
  6,003
  6,292
  6,595
  6,915
  7,251
Total equity, $m
  3,892
  3,726
  3,812
  3,909
  4,019
  4,141
  4,275
  4,421
  4,578
  4,748
  4,930
  5,125
  5,333
  5,555
  5,790
  6,040
  6,304
  6,585
  6,881
  7,194
  7,525
  7,873
  8,241
  8,629
  9,037
  9,468
  9,921
  10,397
  10,899
  11,427
  11,982
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,106
  5,981
  6,118
  6,275
  6,451
  6,647
  6,862
  7,096
  7,348
  7,621
  7,913
  8,226
  8,560
  8,916
  9,294
  9,695
  10,119
  10,570
  11,045
  11,547
  12,078
  12,637
  13,228
  13,851
  14,506
  15,197
  15,924
  16,689
  17,494
  18,342
  19,233
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.284
  0.310
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -46
  82
  83
  85
  86
  88
  90
  92
  94
  97
  100
  109
  112
  115
  118
  122
  126
  130
  134
  138
  143
  148
  153
  158
  164
  170
  177
  183
  190
  198
  205
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  275
  282
  288
  296
  304
  313
  322
  333
  345
  357
  370
  376
  391
  407
  425
  443
  462
  483
  505
  528
  552
  578
  604
  633
  663
  694
  728
  763
  799
  838
  879
Funds from operations, $m
  105
  364
  371
  380
  390
  401
  412
  425
  439
  454
  470
  485
  503
  522
  543
  565
  588
  613
  638
  666
  695
  725
  757
  791
  827
  865
  904
  946
  990
  1,036
  1,084
Change in working capital, $m
  -126
  18
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  117
  124
  130
  137
Cash from operations, $m
  231
  131
  350
  356
  363
  371
  379
  389
  400
  412
  425
  437
  452
  468
  485
  503
  523
  543
  565
  589
  613
  639
  667
  696
  726
  759
  793
  828
  866
  906
  948
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -268
  -273
  -280
  -287
  -295
  -304
  -314
  -324
  -336
  -348
  -362
  -376
  -391
  -407
  -425
  -443
  -462
  -483
  -505
  -528
  -552
  -578
  -604
  -633
  -663
  -694
  -728
  -763
  -799
  -838
New CAPEX, $m
  -161
  -75
  -87
  -100
  -112
  -124
  -136
  -148
  -161
  -173
  -186
  -199
  -212
  -226
  -240
  -255
  -270
  -286
  -302
  -319
  -337
  -356
  -375
  -395
  -416
  -439
  -462
  -486
  -512
  -538
  -566
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -161
  -343
  -360
  -380
  -399
  -419
  -440
  -462
  -485
  -509
  -534
  -561
  -588
  -617
  -647
  -680
  -713
  -748
  -785
  -824
  -865
  -908
  -953
  -999
  -1,049
  -1,102
  -1,156
  -1,214
  -1,275
  -1,337
  -1,404
Free cash flow, $m
  70
  -212
  -10
  -23
  -36
  -48
  -61
  -73
  -85
  -97
  -109
  -124
  -136
  -149
  -162
  -176
  -190
  -205
  -220
  -235
  -251
  -268
  -286
  -304
  -323
  -343
  -364
  -385
  -408
  -432
  -457
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  41
  52
  59
  67
  74
  81
  88
  95
  103
  110
  118
  126
  134
  142
  151
  160
  170
  179
  189
  200
  211
  223
  235
  247
  260
  274
  289
  304
  319
  336
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  5
  44
  62
  80
  97
  113
  130
  147
  164
  181
  201
  218
  237
  255
  275
  295
  315
  337
  359
  382
  406
  431
  457
  484
  513
  543
  574
  606
  640
  676
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -52
  46
  96
  121
  147
  171
  194
  218
  242
  267
  291
  319
  344
  371
  397
  426
  455
  485
  516
  548
  582
  617
  654
  692
  731
  773
  817
  863
  910
  959
  1,012
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  15
  -171
  41
  36
  30
  25
  20
  15
  11
  6
  1
  -6
  -10
  -15
  -20
  -25
  -30
  -35
  -40
  -46
  -51
  -57
  -63
  -69
  -76
  -83
  -90
  -97
  -104
  -112
  -121
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  214
  -71
  -86
  -98
  -110
  -122
  -134
  -146
  -158
  -170
  -182
  -195
  -208
  -221
  -235
  -250
  -265
  -280
  -296
  -313
  -331
  -349
  -368
  -388
  -408
  -430
  -453
  -477
  -502
  -528
  -555
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  237
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  4.70
  4.94
  5.18
  5.44
  5.71
  6.00
  6.30
  6.61
  6.94
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.77
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.09
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.71
  17.55
  18.42
  19.35
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.9
  98.7
  97.1
  95.1
  92.9
  90.4
  87.7
  84.8
  81.8
  78.8
  75.7
  72.6
  69.4
  66.4
  63.3
  60.3
  57.4
  54.6
  51.9
  49.2
  46.7
  44.2
  41.9
  39.6
  37.5
  35.4
  33.5
  31.6
  29.8
  28.2

Cameco Corporation produces and sells uranium worldwide. It operates through three segments: Uranium, Fuel Services, and NUKEM. The Uranium segment is involved in the exploration for, mining, and milling, as well as purchase and sale of uranium concentrates. Its operating uranium properties include the McArthur River/Key Lake, Cigar Lake, and Rabbit Lake properties located in Saskatchewan, Canada; the Inkai property situated in Kazakhstan; the Smith Ranch-Highland property located in Wyoming, the United States; and the Crow Butte property situated in Nebraska, the United States. The Fuel Services segment engages in the refining, conversion, and fabrication of uranium concentrate, as well as the purchase and sale of conversion services. This segment also produces fuel bundles and reactor components for CANDU reactors. The NUKEM segment trades in uranium and uranium-related products. The company sells its uranium and fuel services to nuclear utilities. Cameco Corporation was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Saskatoon, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cameco (CCJ)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -84.8
Price to Sales 2.2
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 55.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -11.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -39.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -19.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 28.4%
Total Debt to Equity 28.4%
Interest Coverage -1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -0.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Return On Total Capital -0.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Return On Equity -1.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 19.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.7%
EBITDA Margin 11.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Operating Margin -5.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -6.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.7%
Net Profit Margin -2.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Effective Tax Rate 61.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 129.6%
Payout Ratio -254.3%

CCJ stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CCJ stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1800 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cameco. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Cameco. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CCJ stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.7%, whose default value for CCJ is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cameco, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cameco.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CCJ stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CCJ stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.7% for Cameco.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cameco. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CCJ stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CCJ are equal to 206.9%.

Life of production assets of 13.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cameco operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CCJ is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3892 million for Cameco - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 390.244 million for Cameco is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cameco at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.8 billion.


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Stock chart of CCJ Financial statements of CCJ
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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