Intrinsic value of Cameco - CCJ

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$9.55

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CCJ stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -11.72
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,800
  2,480
  2,537
  2,602
  2,675
  2,756
  2,845
  2,942
  3,047
  3,160
  3,281
  3,411
  3,549
  3,697
  3,853
  4,020
  4,196
  4,382
  4,579
  4,788
  5,008
  5,240
  5,485
  5,743
  6,015
  6,301
  6,602
  6,920
  7,254
  7,605
  7,974
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,259
  2,310
  2,369
  2,436
  2,509
  2,590
  2,678
  2,773
  2,875
  2,985
  3,091
  3,216
  3,350
  3,492
  3,642
  3,802
  3,971
  4,149
  4,338
  4,538
  4,748
  4,970
  5,203
  5,450
  5,709
  5,982
  6,270
  6,572
  6,891
  7,226
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,905
  2,259
  2,310
  2,369
  2,436
  2,509
  2,590
  2,678
  2,773
  2,875
  2,985
  3,091
  3,216
  3,350
  3,492
  3,642
  3,802
  3,971
  4,149
  4,338
  4,538
  4,748
  4,970
  5,203
  5,450
  5,709
  5,982
  6,270
  6,572
  6,891
  7,226
Operating income, $m
  -105
  221
  226
  232
  239
  247
  255
  264
  274
  285
  296
  320
  333
  347
  362
  377
  394
  411
  430
  450
  470
  492
  515
  539
  565
  592
  620
  650
  681
  714
  749
EBITDA, $m
  170
  605
  619
  635
  652
  672
  694
  718
  743
  771
  800
  832
  866
  902
  940
  980
  1,023
  1,069
  1,117
  1,168
  1,221
  1,278
  1,338
  1,401
  1,467
  1,537
  1,610
  1,688
  1,769
  1,855
  1,945
Interest expense (income), $m
  52
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  89
  94
  99
  105
  112
  119
  126
  134
  143
  152
  162
  172
  183
  194
  206
  219
  232
  246
  261
  277
  293
  311
  329
  348
  369
Earnings before tax, $m
  -114
  151
  154
  156
  160
  163
  167
  171
  175
  179
  184
  201
  207
  213
  219
  225
  232
  240
  247
  256
  264
  273
  283
  293
  304
  315
  327
  339
  352
  366
  380
Tax expense, $m
  -70
  41
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  50
  54
  56
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
  74
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
Net income, $m
  -46
  110
  112
  114
  116
  119
  122
  124
  128
  131
  134
  147
  151
  155
  160
  165
  170
  175
  181
  187
  193
  200
  207
  214
  222
  230
  238
  248
  257
  267
  278

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  237
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,106
  8,077
  8,263
  8,475
  8,713
  8,978
  9,267
  9,583
  9,925
  10,293
  10,688
  11,110
  11,561
  12,041
  12,552
  13,093
  13,667
  14,274
  14,917
  15,595
  16,312
  17,068
  17,865
  18,706
  19,591
  20,524
  21,506
  22,540
  23,627
  24,772
  25,975
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,869
  8,077
  8,263
  8,475
  8,713
  8,978
  9,267
  9,583
  9,925
  10,293
  10,688
  11,110
  11,561
  12,041
  12,552
  13,093
  13,667
  14,274
  14,917
  15,595
  16,312
  17,068
  17,865
  18,706
  19,591
  20,524
  21,506
  22,540
  23,627
  24,772
  25,975
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
Average production assets, $m
  3,724
  5,133
  5,251
  5,386
  5,537
  5,705
  5,889
  6,090
  6,307
  6,541
  6,792
  7,061
  7,347
  7,652
  7,976
  8,321
  8,685
  9,071
  9,479
  9,911
  10,366
  10,846
  11,353
  11,887
  12,450
  13,043
  13,667
  14,324
  15,015
  15,742
  16,507
Working capital, $m
  1,164
  1,240
  1,268
  1,301
  1,338
  1,378
  1,423
  1,471
  1,523
  1,580
  1,641
  1,705
  1,775
  1,848
  1,927
  2,010
  2,098
  2,191
  2,290
  2,394
  2,504
  2,620
  2,742
  2,871
  3,007
  3,150
  3,301
  3,460
  3,627
  3,802
  3,987
Total debt, $m
  1,105
  1,547
  1,617
  1,697
  1,787
  1,887
  1,996
  2,115
  2,244
  2,382
  2,531
  2,691
  2,861
  3,042
  3,234
  3,438
  3,654
  3,883
  4,126
  4,381
  4,652
  4,937
  5,237
  5,554
  5,888
  6,240
  6,610
  6,999
  7,409
  7,841
  8,295
Total liabilities, $m
  2,214
  3,045
  3,115
  3,195
  3,285
  3,385
  3,494
  3,613
  3,742
  3,880
  4,029
  4,189
  4,359
  4,540
  4,732
  4,936
  5,152
  5,381
  5,624
  5,879
  6,150
  6,435
  6,735
  7,052
  7,386
  7,738
  8,108
  8,497
  8,907
  9,339
  9,793
Total equity, $m
  3,892
  5,032
  5,148
  5,280
  5,428
  5,593
  5,774
  5,970
  6,183
  6,412
  6,659
  6,922
  7,203
  7,502
  7,820
  8,157
  8,514
  8,893
  9,293
  9,716
  10,162
  10,633
  11,130
  11,654
  12,205
  12,786
  13,398
  14,042
  14,720
  15,433
  16,182
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,106
  8,077
  8,263
  8,475
  8,713
  8,978
  9,268
  9,583
  9,925
  10,292
  10,688
  11,111
  11,562
  12,042
  12,552
  13,093
  13,666
  14,274
  14,917
  15,595
  16,312
  17,068
  17,865
  18,706
  19,591
  20,524
  21,506
  22,539
  23,627
  24,772
  25,975
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.284
  0.310
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -46
  110
  112
  114
  116
  119
  122
  124
  128
  131
  134
  147
  151
  155
  160
  165
  170
  175
  181
  187
  193
  200
  207
  214
  222
  230
  238
  248
  257
  267
  278
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  275
  384
  392
  402
  413
  425
  439
  453
  469
  486
  504
  512
  532
  555
  578
  603
  629
  657
  687
  718
  751
  786
  823
  861
  902
  945
  990
  1,038
  1,088
  1,141
  1,196
Funds from operations, $m
  105
  494
  505
  516
  530
  544
  560
  578
  597
  617
  639
  659
  683
  710
  738
  767
  799
  832
  868
  905
  944
  986
  1,029
  1,075
  1,124
  1,175
  1,229
  1,285
  1,345
  1,408
  1,474
Change in working capital, $m
  -126
  24
  29
  33
  37
  41
  44
  48
  52
  56
  61
  65
  69
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  136
  143
  151
  159
  167
  176
  185
Cash from operations, $m
  231
  178
  476
  484
  493
  504
  516
  529
  544
  560
  578
  594
  614
  636
  659
  684
  711
  739
  769
  801
  834
  869
  907
  946
  988
  1,032
  1,078
  1,127
  1,178
  1,232
  1,289
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -365
  -372
  -380
  -390
  -401
  -413
  -427
  -441
  -457
  -474
  -492
  -512
  -532
  -555
  -578
  -603
  -629
  -657
  -687
  -718
  -751
  -786
  -823
  -861
  -902
  -945
  -990
  -1,038
  -1,088
  -1,141
New CAPEX, $m
  -161
  -101
  -118
  -135
  -152
  -168
  -184
  -201
  -217
  -234
  -251
  -269
  -287
  -305
  -324
  -344
  -365
  -386
  -408
  -431
  -455
  -480
  -507
  -534
  -563
  -593
  -624
  -657
  -691
  -727
  -765
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -161
  -466
  -490
  -515
  -542
  -569
  -597
  -628
  -658
  -691
  -725
  -761
  -799
  -837
  -879
  -922
  -968
  -1,015
  -1,065
  -1,118
  -1,173
  -1,231
  -1,293
  -1,357
  -1,424
  -1,495
  -1,569
  -1,647
  -1,729
  -1,815
  -1,906
Free cash flow, $m
  70
  -288
  -14
  -32
  -49
  -65
  -82
  -98
  -114
  -131
  -147
  -167
  -184
  -201
  -219
  -238
  -257
  -276
  -297
  -318
  -339
  -362
  -386
  -410
  -436
  -463
  -491
  -520
  -551
  -583
  -617
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  54
  70
  80
  90
  100
  109
  119
  129
  139
  149
  159
  170
  181
  192
  204
  216
  229
  242
  256
  270
  285
  301
  317
  334
  352
  370
  390
  410
  431
  454
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  8
  60
  84
  107
  130
  153
  176
  198
  221
  244
  271
  295
  320
  345
  371
  398
  426
  455
  485
  516
  548
  582
  617
  654
  693
  733
  775
  819
  865
  913
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -52
  62
  130
  164
  197
  230
  262
  295
  327
  360
  393
  430
  465
  501
  537
  575
  614
  655
  697
  741
  786
  833
  883
  934
  988
  1,045
  1,103
  1,165
  1,229
  1,296
  1,367
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  15
  -234
  56
  48
  41
  34
  27
  21
  14
  8
  2
  -8
  -14
  -20
  -27
  -34
  -40
  -47
  -54
  -62
  -69
  -77
  -85
  -94
  -102
  -111
  -121
  -131
  -141
  -152
  -163
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  214
  -94
  -116
  -132
  -149
  -165
  -181
  -197
  -213
  -229
  -246
  -263
  -281
  -299
  -318
  -337
  -357
  -378
  -400
  -423
  -446
  -471
  -497
  -524
  -552
  -581
  -612
  -644
  -678
  -713
  -750
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  320
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  4.70
  4.94
  5.18
  5.44
  5.71
  6.00
  6.30
  6.61
  6.94
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.77
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.09
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.71
  17.55
  18.42
  19.35
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.8
  98.1
  95.9
  93.2
  90.1
  86.8
  83.2
  79.4
  75.6
  71.7
  67.8
  63.9
  60.1
  56.4
  52.9
  49.5
  46.2
  43.1
  40.1
  37.3
  34.6
  32.1
  29.8
  27.6
  25.5
  23.6
  21.8
  20.1
  18.6
  17.2

Cameco Corporation produces and sells uranium worldwide. It operates through three segments: Uranium, Fuel Services, and NUKEM. The Uranium segment is involved in the exploration for, mining, and milling, as well as purchase and sale of uranium concentrates. Its operating uranium properties include the McArthur River/Key Lake, Cigar Lake, and Rabbit Lake properties located in Saskatchewan, Canada; the Inkai property situated in Kazakhstan; the Smith Ranch-Highland property located in Wyoming, the United States; and the Crow Butte property situated in Nebraska, the United States. The Fuel Services segment engages in the refining, conversion, and fabrication of uranium concentrate, as well as the purchase and sale of conversion services. This segment also produces fuel bundles and reactor components for CANDU reactors. The NUKEM segment trades in uranium and uranium-related products. The company sells its uranium and fuel services to nuclear utilities. Cameco Corporation was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Saskatoon, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cameco (CCJ)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -82.2
Price to Sales 2.1
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 54
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -11.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -39.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -19.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 28.4%
Total Debt to Equity 28.4%
Interest Coverage -1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -0.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Return On Total Capital -0.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Return On Equity -1.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 19.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.7%
EBITDA Margin 11.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Operating Margin -5.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -6.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.7%
Net Profit Margin -2.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Effective Tax Rate 61.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 129.6%
Payout Ratio -254.3%

CCJ stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CCJ stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2431 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cameco. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Cameco. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CCJ stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.7%, whose default value for CCJ is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cameco, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cameco.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CCJ stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CCJ stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.7% for Cameco.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cameco. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CCJ stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CCJ are equal to 207%.

Life of production assets of 13.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cameco operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CCJ is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $5258 million for Cameco - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 387.681 million for Cameco is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cameco at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.7 billion.


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Stock chart of CCJ Financial statements of CCJ
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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