Intrinsic value of CSI Compressco - CCLP

Previous Close

$5.40

  Intrinsic Value

$1.01

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-81%

  Value-price divergence*

+11%

Previous close

$5.40

 
Intrinsic value

$1.01

 
Up/down potential

-81%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+11%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CCLP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -32.10
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  311
  317
  325
  333
  342
  353
  364
  376
  390
  404
  420
  436
  454
  473
  493
  514
  537
  561
  586
  613
  641
  670
  702
  735
  769
  806
  845
  885
  928
  973
  1,020
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  360
  368
  378
  388
  400
  413
  427
  442
  459
  476
  495
  515
  537
  560
  584
  609
  636
  665
  695
  727
  761
  796
  834
  873
  915
  959
  1,005
  1,053
  1,104
  1,158
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  54
  56
  57
  59
  60
  61
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  87
  89
  91
  94
  96
  98
  101
  103
  106
  108
  111
Total operating expenses, $m
  405
  414
  424
  435
  447
  460
  474
  490
  507
  525
  544
  565
  586
  610
  635
  661
  688
  717
  748
  780
  814
  850
  887
  928
  969
  1,013
  1,060
  1,108
  1,159
  1,212
  1,269
Operating income, $m
  -93
  -97
  -99
  -102
  -105
  -108
  -111
  -114
  -117
  -121
  -125
  -128
  -133
  -137
  -141
  -146
  -151
  -156
  -162
  -167
  -173
  -180
  -186
  -193
  -200
  -207
  -215
  -223
  -231
  -240
  -249
EBITDA, $m
  -21
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -32
  -33
  -33
  -33
  -34
  -34
  -34
  -34
  -35
  -35
  -35
  -35
  -34
  -34
  -34
  -34
  -33
  -33
  -32
  -31
  -30
  -30
  -29
  -27
Interest expense (income), $m
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  48
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  112
Earnings before tax, $m
  -136
  -131
  -134
  -137
  -141
  -145
  -149
  -154
  -159
  -164
  -169
  -175
  -181
  -187
  -194
  -201
  -209
  -217
  -225
  -234
  -243
  -252
  -262
  -272
  -283
  -295
  -307
  -319
  -332
  -346
  -361
Tax expense, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -138
  -131
  -134
  -137
  -141
  -145
  -149
  -154
  -159
  -164
  -169
  -175
  -181
  -187
  -194
  -201
  -209
  -217
  -225
  -234
  -243
  -252
  -262
  -272
  -283
  -295
  -307
  -319
  -332
  -346
  -361

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  786
  779
  797
  818
  841
  866
  894
  925
  958
  993
  1,031
  1,072
  1,116
  1,162
  1,211
  1,263
  1,319
  1,377
  1,439
  1,505
  1,574
  1,647
  1,724
  1,805
  1,891
  1,981
  2,075
  2,175
  2,280
  2,390
  2,507
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  765
  779
  797
  818
  841
  866
  894
  925
  958
  993
  1,031
  1,072
  1,116
  1,162
  1,211
  1,263
  1,319
  1,377
  1,439
  1,505
  1,574
  1,647
  1,724
  1,805
  1,891
  1,981
  2,075
  2,175
  2,280
  2,390
  2,507
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.407
  0.407
  0.408
  0.407
  0.407
  0.408
  0.407
  0.406
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
Average production assets, $m
  716
  730
  747
  766
  788
  812
  838
  866
  897
  931
  966
  1,004
  1,045
  1,089
  1,135
  1,184
  1,236
  1,291
  1,349
  1,410
  1,475
  1,543
  1,615
  1,691
  1,771
  1,856
  1,944
  2,038
  2,136
  2,240
  2,348
Working capital, $m
  52
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  81
  84
  89
  93
  97
  102
Total debt, $m
  592
  604
  620
  637
  656
  678
  701
  727
  754
  784
  816
  851
  887
  926
  968
  1,012
  1,058
  1,107
  1,160
  1,215
  1,273
  1,334
  1,399
  1,467
  1,539
  1,615
  1,694
  1,778
  1,866
  1,959
  2,057
Total liabilities, $m
  643
  655
  671
  688
  707
  729
  752
  778
  805
  835
  867
  902
  938
  977
  1,019
  1,063
  1,109
  1,158
  1,211
  1,266
  1,324
  1,385
  1,450
  1,518
  1,590
  1,666
  1,745
  1,829
  1,917
  2,010
  2,108
Total equity, $m
  143
  124
  127
  130
  134
  138
  142
  147
  152
  158
  164
  170
  177
  185
  193
  201
  210
  219
  229
  239
  250
  262
  274
  287
  301
  315
  330
  346
  363
  380
  399
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  786
  779
  798
  818
  841
  867
  894
  925
  957
  993
  1,031
  1,072
  1,115
  1,162
  1,212
  1,264
  1,319
  1,377
  1,440
  1,505
  1,574
  1,647
  1,724
  1,805
  1,891
  1,981
  2,075
  2,175
  2,280
  2,390
  2,507
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.140
  4.880
  4.890
  4.900
  4.910
  4.920
  4.930
  4.940
  4.950
  4.970
  4.980
  4.990
  5.000
  5.010
  5.020
  5.040
  5.050
  5.060
  5.070
  5.080
  5.090
  5.090
  5.100
  5.110
  5.120
  5.130
  5.130
  5.140
  5.150
  5.160
  5.160
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -138
  -131
  -134
  -137
  -141
  -145
  -149
  -154
  -159
  -164
  -169
  -175
  -181
  -187
  -194
  -201
  -209
  -217
  -225
  -234
  -243
  -252
  -262
  -272
  -283
  -295
  -307
  -319
  -332
  -346
  -361
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  72
  69
  70
  72
  74
  77
  79
  82
  85
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  146
  152
  160
  167
  175
  183
  192
  202
  211
  222
Funds from operations, $m
  73
  -62
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -82
  -85
  -87
  -90
  -92
  -95
  -98
  -100
  -103
  -106
  -110
  -113
  -116
  -120
  -123
  -127
  -131
  -135
  -139
Change in working capital, $m
  12
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
Cash from operations, $m
  61
  -63
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -69
  -71
  -73
  -75
  -77
  -80
  -82
  -84
  -87
  -89
  -92
  -94
  -97
  -100
  -103
  -106
  -109
  -113
  -116
  -120
  -123
  -127
  -131
  -135
  -139
  -144
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -68
  -69
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -152
  -160
  -167
  -175
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -211
New CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -14
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -11
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -129
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -188
  -198
  -207
  -218
  -228
  -240
  -251
  -264
  -276
  -290
  -305
  -320
Free cash flow, $m
  50
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -161
  -168
  -174
  -181
  -188
  -195
  -203
  -211
  -220
  -229
  -238
  -248
  -258
  -269
  -280
  -292
  -304
  -317
  -330
  -345
  -359
  -375
  -391
  -408
  -426
  -444
  -464
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  13
  12
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  41
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  98
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  133
  137
  141
  145
  149
  154
  159
  164
  169
  175
  181
  188
  195
  202
  210
  218
  226
  235
  244
  254
  264
  274
  285
  297
  309
  322
  335
  349
  364
  379
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  11
  145
  152
  158
  164
  170
  178
  185
  192
  199
  207
  215
  225
  234
  243
  254
  265
  275
  287
  299
  312
  325
  339
  353
  369
  385
  402
  419
  437
  457
  477
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  61
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  189
  -133
  -137
  -141
  -145
  -149
  -154
  -159
  -164
  -169
  -175
  -181
  -188
  -195
  -202
  -210
  -218
  -226
  -235
  -244
  -254
  -264
  -274
  -285
  -297
  -309
  -322
  -335
  -349
  -364
  -379
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -111
  -135
  -138
  -142
  -146
  -151
  -155
  -160
  -165
  -171
  -177
  -183
  -190
  -197
  -204
  -211
  -219
  -228
  -237
  -246
  -256
  -266
  -276
  -287
  -299
  -311
  -324
  -338
  -352
  -366
Discount rate, %
 
  11.90
  12.50
  13.12
  13.78
  14.46
  15.19
  15.95
  16.74
  17.58
  18.46
  19.38
  20.35
  21.37
  22.44
  23.56
  24.74
  25.98
  27.28
  28.64
  30.07
  31.57
  33.15
  34.81
  36.55
  38.38
  40.30
  42.31
  44.43
  46.65
  48.98
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -99
  -107
  -96
  -85
  -74
  -64
  -55
  -46
  -39
  -31
  -25
  -20
  -15
  -12
  -9
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  55.2
  30.3
  16.6
  9.1
  5.0
  2.7
  1.5
  0.8
  0.4
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

CSI Compressco LP is a provider of compression services and equipment for natural gas and oil production, gathering, transportation, processing and storage. The Company sells custom-designed compressor packages and oilfield fluid pump systems, and provides aftermarket services and compressor package parts and components manufactured by third-party suppliers. It provides these compression services and equipment to a base of natural gas and oil exploration and production, midstream and transmission companies operating throughout many of the onshore producing regions of the United States, as well as in a number of foreign countries, including Mexico, Canada and Argentina. It is a service provider of natural gas compression services in the United States, utilizing its fleet of compressor packages that employs a spectrum of low-, medium- and high-horsepower engines. As of December 31, 2016, its fleet included approximately 6,000 compressor packages.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CSI Compressco (CCLP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.3
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 3.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -32.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -88.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -15.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 414%
Total Debt to Equity 414%
Interest Coverage -3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -11.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.9%
Return On Total Capital -16.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -10%
Return On Equity -58.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -29.5%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 38.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.7%
EBITDA Margin -10%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Operating Margin -30.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -43.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -24.1%
Net Profit Margin -44.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -24.2%
Effective Tax Rate -1.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.8%
Payout Ratio -37%

CCLP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CCLP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $311 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CSI Compressco. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of CSI Compressco. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CCLP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11.9%, whose default value for CCLP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CSI Compressco, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CSI Compressco.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CCLP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 113.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $53 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CCLP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.7% for CSI Compressco.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CSI Compressco. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CCLP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CCLP are equal to 230.2%.

Life of production assets of 10.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CSI Compressco operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CCLP is equal to 10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $143 million for CSI Compressco - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 35.572 million for CSI Compressco is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CSI Compressco at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ What Is CSI Compressco LPs (CCLP) Share Price Doing?   [Sep-28-17 02:50PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ These 10 MLPs Offer the Highest Yields   [Sep-21-17 02:09PM  Market Realist]
▶ CSI Compressco reports 2Q loss   [Aug-08-17 10:22PM  Associated Press]
▶ These MLPs Fell More than 5% Last Week   [12:28PM  Market Realist]
▶ CSI Compressco reports 2Q loss   [07:52AM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for July 7th   [Jul-07-17 10:12AM  Zacks]
▶ Chart in Focus: Looking at MLPs amid Market Uncertainties   [Jun-07-17 10:36AM  Market Realist]
▶ CSI Compressco reports 1Q loss   [May-09-17 07:34AM  Associated Press]
▶ Which MLP Stocks Were the Biggest Losers in April 2017?   [May-05-17 04:34PM  Market Realist]
▶ Shares of CSI Compressco Plunge After Distribution Cut   [Apr-24-17 08:30PM  Motley Fool]
▶ CSI Compressco reports 4Q loss   [Feb-28-17 07:33AM  Associated Press]
▶ Stay Away! 3 Dividend Stocks That Are Yield Traps   [Oct-29-16 08:00AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ MLP Debt Check: Midstream Looks Okay, Upstream Not So Much   [Aug-30-16 04:34PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ The 10 Highest Energy Stock Dividends   [Aug-16-16 01:10PM  at Motley Fool]
Financial statements of CCLP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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