Intrinsic value of Cabot Microelectronics - CCMP

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$73.77

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$73.77

 
Intrinsic value

$99.82

 
Up/down potential

+35%

 
Rating

buy

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CCMP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.86
  23.00
  21.20
  19.58
  18.12
  16.81
  15.63
  14.57
  13.61
  12.75
  11.97
  11.28
  10.65
  10.08
  9.58
  9.12
  8.71
  8.34
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.60
  6.44
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
Revenue, $m
  430
  529
  641
  767
  905
  1,058
  1,223
  1,401
  1,592
  1,795
  2,010
  2,236
  2,474
  2,724
  2,985
  3,257
  3,540
  3,835
  4,142
  4,461
  4,793
  5,137
  5,495
  5,868
  6,255
  6,657
  7,076
  7,512
  7,966
  8,440
  8,933
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  431
  520
  620
  730
  851
  983
  1,125
  1,276
  1,438
  1,609
  1,779
  1,968
  2,167
  2,374
  2,591
  2,816
  3,051
  3,295
  3,549
  3,813
  4,087
  4,372
  4,668
  4,976
  5,296
  5,629
  5,976
  6,337
  6,714
  7,107
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  356
  431
  520
  620
  730
  851
  983
  1,125
  1,276
  1,438
  1,609
  1,779
  1,968
  2,167
  2,374
  2,591
  2,816
  3,051
  3,295
  3,549
  3,813
  4,087
  4,372
  4,668
  4,976
  5,296
  5,629
  5,976
  6,337
  6,714
  7,107
Operating income, $m
  75
  98
  121
  147
  175
  206
  240
  276
  315
  357
  401
  457
  506
  557
  610
  666
  724
  784
  847
  912
  980
  1,051
  1,124
  1,200
  1,279
  1,361
  1,447
  1,536
  1,629
  1,726
  1,827
EBITDA, $m
  101
  115
  139
  167
  197
  230
  266
  304
  346
  390
  437
  486
  538
  592
  649
  708
  769
  833
  900
  969
  1,041
  1,116
  1,194
  1,275
  1,359
  1,447
  1,538
  1,632
  1,731
  1,834
  1,941
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  5
  7
  9
  11
  14
  16
  19
  23
  26
  30
  34
  38
  42
  46
  51
  56
  61
  66
  72
  78
  84
  90
  96
  103
  110
  117
  125
  133
  141
  149
Earnings before tax, $m
  70
  93
  114
  138
  164
  192
  224
  257
  293
  331
  371
  424
  468
  515
  564
  615
  668
  723
  781
  840
  902
  967
  1,034
  1,104
  1,176
  1,251
  1,330
  1,411
  1,497
  1,585
  1,678
Tax expense, $m
  10
  25
  31
  37
  44
  52
  60
  69
  79
  89
  100
  114
  126
  139
  152
  166
  180
  195
  211
  227
  244
  261
  279
  298
  318
  338
  359
  381
  404
  428
  453
Net income, $m
  60
  68
  83
  101
  120
  141
  163
  188
  214
  242
  271
  309
  342
  376
  412
  449
  488
  528
  570
  613
  659
  706
  755
  806
  859
  914
  971
  1,030
  1,092
  1,157
  1,225

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  287
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  727
  541
  656
  785
  927
  1,083
  1,252
  1,434
  1,629
  1,837
  2,057
  2,289
  2,533
  2,788
  3,055
  3,333
  3,624
  3,926
  4,240
  4,566
  4,906
  5,258
  5,625
  6,006
  6,402
  6,814
  7,243
  7,689
  8,154
  8,638
  9,144
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  440
  541
  656
  785
  927
  1,083
  1,252
  1,434
  1,629
  1,837
  2,057
  2,289
  2,533
  2,788
  3,055
  3,333
  3,624
  3,926
  4,240
  4,566
  4,906
  5,258
  5,625
  6,006
  6,402
  6,814
  7,243
  7,689
  8,154
  8,638
  9,144
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.977
  0.978
  0.977
  0.977
  0.976
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
Average production assets, $m
  28
  34
  41
  49
  58
  68
  78
  90
  102
  115
  129
  143
  158
  174
  191
  208
  227
  245
  265
  286
  307
  329
  352
  376
  400
  426
  453
  481
  510
  540
  572
Working capital, $m
  371
  113
  137
  164
  194
  226
  262
  300
  341
  384
  430
  479
  530
  583
  639
  697
  758
  821
  886
  955
  1,026
  1,099
  1,176
  1,256
  1,338
  1,425
  1,514
  1,608
  1,705
  1,806
  1,912
Total debt, $m
  155
  198
  255
  320
  391
  469
  554
  646
  744
  848
  959
  1,075
  1,197
  1,326
  1,460
  1,599
  1,745
  1,897
  2,054
  2,218
  2,389
  2,566
  2,750
  2,941
  3,140
  3,347
  3,562
  3,786
  4,019
  4,262
  4,516
Total liabilities, $m
  230
  272
  329
  394
  465
  543
  628
  720
  818
  922
  1,033
  1,149
  1,271
  1,400
  1,534
  1,673
  1,819
  1,971
  2,128
  2,292
  2,463
  2,640
  2,824
  3,015
  3,214
  3,421
  3,636
  3,860
  4,093
  4,336
  4,590
Total equity, $m
  498
  270
  327
  391
  462
  539
  623
  714
  811
  915
  1,024
  1,140
  1,261
  1,388
  1,521
  1,660
  1,805
  1,955
  2,111
  2,274
  2,443
  2,619
  2,801
  2,991
  3,188
  3,393
  3,607
  3,829
  4,061
  4,302
  4,554
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  728
  542
  656
  785
  927
  1,082
  1,251
  1,434
  1,629
  1,837
  2,057
  2,289
  2,532
  2,788
  3,055
  3,333
  3,624
  3,926
  4,239
  4,566
  4,906
  5,259
  5,625
  6,006
  6,402
  6,814
  7,243
  7,689
  8,154
  8,638
  9,144
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.311
  0.730
  0.780
  0.820
  0.850
  0.870
  0.890
  0.900
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.940
  0.950
  0.950
  0.960
  0.960
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.980
  0.980
  0.980
  0.980
  0.980
  0.980
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.480
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  60
  68
  83
  101
  120
  141
  163
  188
  214
  242
  271
  309
  342
  376
  412
  449
  488
  528
  570
  613
  659
  706
  755
  806
  859
  914
  971
  1,030
  1,092
  1,157
  1,225
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  26
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  36
  29
  32
  35
  38
  42
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  66
  70
  75
  80
  85
  91
  96
  102
  108
  114
Funds from operations, $m
  91
  85
  102
  120
  141
  164
  189
  216
  244
  275
  307
  338
  374
  411
  450
  491
  533
  577
  623
  671
  720
  772
  825
  881
  939
  999
  1,061
  1,127
  1,194
  1,265
  1,339
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  106
Cash from operations, $m
  95
  86
  78
  94
  112
  132
  154
  178
  203
  231
  261
  289
  323
  357
  394
  432
  472
  514
  557
  602
  649
  698
  749
  801
  856
  913
  972
  1,033
  1,097
  1,164
  1,233
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -108
New CAPEX, $m
  -18
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -144
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -37
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -55
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -140
Free cash flow, $m
  -49
  74
  64
  77
  93
  110
  129
  150
  173
  198
  224
  249
  279
  310
  342
  377
  412
  450
  488
  529
  571
  614
  660
  707
  756
  807
  860
  915
  972
  1,032
  1,094
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -9
  51
  58
  64
  71
  78
  85
  92
  98
  104
  110
  116
  122
  128
  134
  140
  146
  152
  158
  164
  170
  177
  184
  191
  199
  207
  215
  224
  233
  243
  254
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -15
  51
  58
  64
  71
  78
  85
  92
  98
  104
  110
  116
  122
  128
  134
  140
  146
  152
  158
  164
  170
  177
  184
  191
  199
  207
  215
  224
  233
  243
  254
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -58
  125
  121
  142
  164
  188
  214
  242
  271
  302
  334
  366
  401
  438
  477
  517
  558
  601
  646
  693
  741
  792
  844
  898
  955
  1,014
  1,075
  1,139
  1,205
  1,275
  1,347
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -69
  -51
  -57
  -64
  -71
  -78
  -84
  -91
  -97
  -103
  -110
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -150
  -156
  -163
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -190
  -197
  -205
  -214
  -222
  -232
  -241
  -252
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  279
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  353
  64
  78
  93
  111
  130
  151
  174
  199
  225
  250
  280
  311
  344
  378
  414
  451
  490
  530
  572
  616
  661
  708
  757
  808
  861
  917
  974
  1,034
  1,096
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  339
  59
  68
  77
  86
  94
  102
  109
  114
  118
  119
  119
  118
  115
  111
  105
  98
  90
  82
  73
  64
  55
  46
  39
  31
  25
  20
  15
  11
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Cabot Microelectronics Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells polishing slurries and pads used in the manufacture of advanced integrated circuit (IC) devices in the semiconductor industry in a process called chemical mechanical planarization (CMP). The CMP technology is a polishing process used by IC device manufacturers to planarize or flatten the multiple layers of material that are deposited upon silicon wafers. The company offers CMP slurries, which are liquid solutions composed of high-purity deionized water, proprietary chemical additives, and engineered abrasives that chemically and mechanically interact with the surface material of the IC device at an atomic level; and CMP pads that are engineered polymeric materials designed to distribute and transport the slurry to the surface of the wafer and distribute it evenly across the wafer. Its CMP slurries are used for polishing various materials that conduct electrical signals, including tungsten, copper, tantalum, and aluminum; and certain materials that are used in the production of rigid disks and magnetic heads for hard disk drives, as well as used in the dielectric insulating materials that separate conductive layers within logic and memory IC devices. The company also designs and produces precision polishing and metrology systems to attain near-perfect shape and surface finish on various optical components, such as mirrors, lenses, and prisms. It serves the producers of logic IC devices or memory IC devices, and providers of IC foundry services directly, as well as through distributors. The company operates in the United States, Asia, and Europe. Cabot Microelectronics Corporation was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Aurora, Illinois.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cabot Microelectronics (CCMP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 30.1
Price to Sales 4.2
Price to Book 3.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19
Price to Free Cash Flow 23.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 28.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 36
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 29.5%
Total Debt to Equity 31.1%
Interest Coverage 19
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Return On Total Capital 9.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Return On Equity 12.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 48.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.3%
EBITDA Margin 23.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.5%
Operating Margin 17.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 16.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.6%
Net Profit Margin 14%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.2%
Effective Tax Rate 14.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.5%
Payout Ratio 15%

CCMP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CCMP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $430 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cabot Microelectronics. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Cabot Microelectronics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CCMP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 23% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CCMP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cabot Microelectronics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cabot Microelectronics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CCMP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CCMP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Cabot Microelectronics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cabot Microelectronics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CCMP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CCMP are equal to 6.4%.

Life of production assets of 3.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cabot Microelectronics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CCMP is equal to 21.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $498 million for Cabot Microelectronics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 25.323 million for Cabot Microelectronics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cabot Microelectronics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Cabot posts 1Q profit   [06:07AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Cabot Microelectronics Corporation (CCMP) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-08-16 10:40AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Cabot posts 3Q profit   [Jul-28-16 10:31AM  AP]
▶ Cabot Microelectronics Trades Ex-Dividend Tuesday (CCMP)   [Jun-21-16 10:53AM  at Investopedia]
▶ Cabot posts 2Q profit   [06:15AM  AP]
Stock chart of CCMP Financial statements of CCMP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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