Intrinsic value of Care Capital Properties - CCP

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$27.58

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CCP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.10
  11.00
  10.40
  9.86
  9.37
  8.94
  8.54
  8.19
  7.87
  7.58
  7.32
  7.09
  6.88
  6.69
  6.53
  6.37
  6.24
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
Revenue, $m
  348
  360
  397
  436
  477
  520
  564
  610
  658
  708
  760
  814
  870
  928
  989
  1,052
  1,118
  1,186
  1,257
  1,331
  1,408
  1,489
  1,573
  1,661
  1,753
  1,849
  1,950
  2,055
  2,165
  2,280
  2,400
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  168
  184
  201
  218
  237
  256
  275
  296
  317
  339
  348
  372
  397
  423
  449
  477
  507
  537
  569
  602
  636
  672
  710
  749
  790
  833
  878
  925
  974
  1,025
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  177
  168
  184
  201
  218
  237
  256
  275
  296
  317
  339
  348
  372
  397
  423
  449
  477
  507
  537
  569
  602
  636
  672
  710
  749
  790
  833
  878
  925
  974
  1,025
Operating income, $m
  171
  191
  213
  235
  259
  283
  309
  335
  363
  391
  421
  466
  498
  532
  566
  602
  640
  679
  720
  762
  807
  853
  901
  952
  1,004
  1,059
  1,117
  1,177
  1,240
  1,306
  1,375
EBITDA, $m
  301
  349
  385
  423
  463
  504
  547
  592
  639
  687
  738
  790
  844
  901
  959
  1,021
  1,084
  1,150
  1,220
  1,291
  1,367
  1,445
  1,527
  1,612
  1,701
  1,794
  1,892
  1,994
  2,100
  2,212
  2,329
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  53
  60
  67
  75
  82
  91
  99
  108
  117
  126
  136
  146
  157
  168
  179
  191
  203
  216
  230
  244
  258
  273
  289
  306
  323
  341
  360
  380
  401
  423
Earnings before tax, $m
  124
  138
  153
  168
  184
  201
  218
  236
  255
  274
  295
  330
  352
  375
  399
  423
  449
  476
  504
  533
  563
  595
  628
  662
  698
  736
  775
  817
  860
  905
  952
Tax expense, $m
  1
  37
  41
  45
  50
  54
  59
  64
  69
  74
  80
  89
  95
  101
  108
  114
  121
  128
  136
  144
  152
  161
  169
  179
  189
  199
  209
  220
  232
  244
  257
Net income, $m
  123
  101
  111
  123
  134
  147
  159
  172
  186
  200
  215
  241
  257
  274
  291
  309
  328
  347
  368
  389
  411
  434
  458
  483
  510
  537
  566
  596
  628
  661
  695

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,812
  3,269
  3,609
  3,965
  4,337
  4,725
  5,128
  5,548
  5,985
  6,439
  6,910
  7,400
  7,910
  8,439
  8,990
  9,563
  10,159
  10,780
  11,427
  12,101
  12,804
  13,538
  14,304
  15,103
  15,939
  16,812
  17,725
  18,680
  19,679
  20,725
  21,820
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,796
  3,269
  3,609
  3,965
  4,337
  4,725
  5,128
  5,548
  5,985
  6,439
  6,910
  7,400
  7,910
  8,439
  8,990
  9,563
  10,159
  10,780
  11,427
  12,101
  12,804
  13,538
  14,304
  15,103
  15,939
  16,812
  17,725
  18,680
  19,679
  20,725
  21,820
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.124
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
Average production assets, $m
  2,593
  2,716
  2,998
  3,294
  3,603
  3,925
  4,260
  4,609
  4,972
  5,349
  5,741
  6,148
  6,571
  7,011
  7,468
  7,944
  8,439
  8,955
  9,493
  10,053
  10,637
  11,246
  11,882
  12,547
  13,241
  13,966
  14,725
  15,518
  16,348
  17,217
  18,126
Working capital, $m
  0
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
Total debt, $m
  1,415
  1,723
  1,924
  2,135
  2,356
  2,586
  2,825
  3,074
  3,333
  3,602
  3,882
  4,172
  4,474
  4,788
  5,115
  5,455
  5,808
  6,177
  6,560
  6,960
  7,377
  7,812
  8,266
  8,740
  9,236
  9,754
  10,295
  10,861
  11,454
  12,074
  12,723
Total liabilities, $m
  1,648
  1,939
  2,140
  2,351
  2,572
  2,802
  3,041
  3,290
  3,549
  3,818
  4,098
  4,388
  4,690
  5,004
  5,331
  5,671
  6,024
  6,393
  6,776
  7,176
  7,593
  8,028
  8,482
  8,956
  9,452
  9,970
  10,511
  11,077
  11,670
  12,290
  12,939
Total equity, $m
  1,164
  1,331
  1,469
  1,614
  1,765
  1,923
  2,087
  2,258
  2,436
  2,621
  2,812
  3,012
  3,219
  3,435
  3,659
  3,892
  4,135
  4,387
  4,651
  4,925
  5,211
  5,510
  5,822
  6,147
  6,487
  6,843
  7,214
  7,603
  8,009
  8,435
  8,881
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,812
  3,270
  3,609
  3,965
  4,337
  4,725
  5,128
  5,548
  5,985
  6,439
  6,910
  7,400
  7,909
  8,439
  8,990
  9,563
  10,159
  10,780
  11,427
  12,101
  12,804
  13,538
  14,304
  15,103
  15,939
  16,813
  17,725
  18,680
  19,679
  20,725
  21,820
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.216
  1.290
  1.310
  1.320
  1.330
  1.340
  1.350
  1.360
  1.370
  1.370
  1.380
  1.390
  1.390
  1.390
  1.400
  1.400
  1.400
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.420
  1.420
  1.420
  1.420
  1.420
  1.430
  1.430
  1.430
  1.430
  1.430
  1.430
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.411
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  123
  101
  111
  123
  134
  147
  159
  172
  186
  200
  215
  241
  257
  274
  291
  309
  328
  347
  368
  389
  411
  434
  458
  483
  510
  537
  566
  596
  628
  661
  695
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  130
  157
  172
  188
  204
  221
  239
  257
  276
  296
  317
  324
  346
  369
  393
  418
  444
  471
  500
  529
  560
  592
  625
  660
  697
  735
  775
  817
  860
  906
  954
Funds from operations, $m
  246
  258
  284
  310
  338
  368
  398
  429
  462
  496
  532
  565
  603
  643
  684
  727
  772
  819
  867
  918
  971
  1,026
  1,084
  1,144
  1,207
  1,272
  1,341
  1,413
  1,488
  1,567
  1,649
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
Cash from operations, $m
  249
  516
  286
  313
  341
  370
  400
  432
  465
  499
  535
  568
  606
  646
  687
  731
  775
  822
  871
  922
  975
  1,030
  1,088
  1,148
  1,211
  1,277
  1,346
  1,418
  1,494
  1,573
  1,655
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -129
  -143
  -158
  -173
  -190
  -207
  -224
  -243
  -262
  -282
  -302
  -324
  -346
  -369
  -393
  -418
  -444
  -471
  -500
  -529
  -560
  -592
  -625
  -660
  -697
  -735
  -775
  -817
  -860
  -906
New CAPEX, $m
  -78
  -269
  -282
  -296
  -309
  -322
  -335
  -349
  -363
  -377
  -392
  -407
  -423
  -440
  -457
  -476
  -495
  -516
  -537
  -560
  -584
  -609
  -636
  -664
  -694
  -725
  -758
  -793
  -830
  -869
  -909
Cash from investing activities, $m
  15
  -398
  -425
  -454
  -482
  -512
  -542
  -573
  -606
  -639
  -674
  -709
  -747
  -786
  -826
  -869
  -913
  -960
  -1,008
  -1,060
  -1,113
  -1,169
  -1,228
  -1,289
  -1,354
  -1,422
  -1,493
  -1,568
  -1,647
  -1,729
  -1,815
Free cash flow, $m
  264
  118
  -140
  -141
  -142
  -142
  -142
  -141
  -141
  -140
  -139
  -142
  -141
  -140
  -139
  -138
  -138
  -138
  -138
  -138
  -138
  -139
  -140
  -141
  -143
  -145
  -147
  -150
  -153
  -156
  -160
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -110
  198
  202
  211
  220
  230
  239
  249
  259
  269
  280
  291
  302
  314
  327
  340
  354
  368
  384
  400
  417
  435
  454
  474
  495
  518
  541
  566
  593
  620
  649
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  0
  77
  75
  72
  70
  67
  63
  59
  55
  51
  51
  46
  41
  37
  32
  27
  22
  17
  12
  7
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -121
  198
  279
  286
  292
  300
  306
  312
  318
  324
  331
  342
  348
  355
  364
  372
  381
  390
  401
  412
  424
  438
  454
  474
  495
  518
  541
  566
  593
  620
  649
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  143
  316
  62
  70
  79
  88
  98
  108
  118
  129
  141
  149
  161
  174
  187
  201
  216
  230
  246
  262
  279
  296
  314
  333
  352
  373
  394
  416
  439
  464
  489
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  50
  -134
  -138
  -145
  -151
  -158
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -192
  -199
  -207
  -216
  -224
  -233
  -243
  -253
  -263
  -274
  -286
  -299
  -312
  -325
  -340
  -355
  -372
  -389
  -407
  -426
  -446
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  17
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  199
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  2
  7
  12
  17
  23
  28
  33
  38
  43
Discount rate, %
 
  8.60
  9.03
  9.48
  9.96
  10.45
  10.98
  11.52
  12.10
  12.71
  13.34
  14.01
  14.71
  15.44
  16.22
  17.03
  17.88
  18.77
  19.71
  20.70
  21.73
  22.82
  23.96
  25.16
  26.42
  27.74
  29.12
  30.58
  32.11
  33.71
  35.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  184
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  97.1
  94.6
  92.5
  90.7
  89.1
  87.7
  86.5
  85.5
  84.7
  83.9
  83.3
  82.7
  82.3
  81.9
  81.6
  81.4
  81.2
  81.1
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0

Care Capital Properties, Inc. focuses on owning, acquiring, and leasing skilled nursing facilities and other healthcare assets operated by private regional and local care providers in the United States. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is based in Chicago, Illinois. Care Capital Properties, Inc. operates independently of Ventas, Inc. as of August 18, 2015.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Care Capital Properties (CCP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18.8
Price to Sales 6.7
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 13.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -84.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 28.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 121.6%
Total Debt to Equity 121.6%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Return On Total Capital 4.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Return On Equity 10.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 98.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 97.9%
EBITDA Margin 73%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 81.8%
Operating Margin 49.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 50%
Pre-Tax Margin 35.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.4%
Net Profit Margin 35.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Payout Ratio 117.1%

CCP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CCP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $324 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Care Capital Properties. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Care Capital Properties. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CCP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.6%, whose default value for CCP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Care Capital Properties, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Care Capital Properties.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CCP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 47.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CCP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Care Capital Properties.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Care Capital Properties. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CCP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CCP are equal to 755.2%.

Life of production assets of 19 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Care Capital Properties operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CCP is equal to -5.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1214 million for Care Capital Properties - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 85.473 million for Care Capital Properties is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Care Capital Properties at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.4 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 3 Top Dividend Stocks in Assisted Living   [Jun-01-17 10:41AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Care Capital Properties reports 1Q results   [08:15AM  Associated Press]
▶ Sabra Health Care, Care Capital Properties merge in $7.4 billion deal   [03:55PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ [$$] Property Investors Venture Into Behavioral Health Facilities   [Apr-11-17 12:52PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Care Capital Properties reports 4Q results   [07:51AM  Associated Press]
▶ REIT Pivots That Paid Off   [Jan-16-17 07:00AM  at Forbes]
▶ 3 High-Yield Dividend Stocks With Plenty Left To Give   [Dec-24-16 08:14AM  at Forbes]
▶ How Care Capital Properties Inc (CCP) Stacks Up Against Its Peers   [Dec-10-16 03:59PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Fed Jawboning Is Good For Healthcare REITs   [Sep-07-16 04:00PM  at Forbes]
▶ When Interest Rates Rise, REITs Are Safer Than Bonds   [Aug-26-16 09:00AM  at Forbes]
▶ Better Buy: HCP, Inc. vs. Ventas   [Aug-25-16 12:34PM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of CCP Financial statements of CCP Annual reports of CCP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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