Intrinsic value of Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR - CCU

Previous Close

$25.81

  Intrinsic Value

$3.97

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-85%

Previous close

$25.81

 
Intrinsic value

$3.97

 
Up/down potential

-85%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CCU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.03
  10.20
  9.68
  9.21
  8.79
  8.41
  8.07
  7.76
  7.49
  7.24
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.87
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
Revenue, $m
  2,350
  2,568
  2,816
  3,076
  3,346
  3,627
  3,920
  4,225
  4,541
  4,870
  5,211
  5,566
  5,935
  6,319
  6,719
  7,135
  7,568
  8,019
  8,490
  8,980
  9,492
  10,027
  10,585
  11,169
  11,779
  12,417
  13,084
  13,782
  14,513
  15,278
  16,079
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,213
  2,425
  2,646
  2,876
  3,116
  3,365
  3,625
  3,894
  4,174
  4,465
  4,741
  5,056
  5,383
  5,723
  6,077
  6,446
  6,831
  7,231
  7,649
  8,086
  8,541
  9,017
  9,514
  10,033
  10,576
  11,145
  11,739
  12,362
  13,014
  13,696
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,060
  2,213
  2,425
  2,646
  2,876
  3,116
  3,365
  3,625
  3,894
  4,174
  4,465
  4,741
  5,056
  5,383
  5,723
  6,077
  6,446
  6,831
  7,231
  7,649
  8,086
  8,541
  9,017
  9,514
  10,033
  10,576
  11,145
  11,739
  12,362
  13,014
  13,696
Operating income, $m
  290
  354
  391
  430
  470
  511
  555
  600
  647
  696
  746
  825
  880
  937
  996
  1,057
  1,122
  1,188
  1,258
  1,331
  1,407
  1,486
  1,569
  1,655
  1,746
  1,840
  1,939
  2,043
  2,151
  2,264
  2,383
EBITDA, $m
  290
  551
  604
  659
  717
  778
  841
  906
  974
  1,044
  1,117
  1,193
  1,273
  1,355
  1,441
  1,530
  1,623
  1,719
  1,820
  1,925
  2,035
  2,150
  2,270
  2,395
  2,525
  2,662
  2,805
  2,955
  3,112
  3,276
  3,447
Interest expense (income), $m
  26
  31
  43
  55
  68
  81
  95
  110
  125
  140
  156
  173
  191
  209
  228
  247
  268
  289
  311
  334
  358
  383
  410
  437
  466
  496
  527
  560
  594
  630
  668
Earnings before tax, $m
  257
  323
  348
  374
  402
  430
  460
  490
  522
  555
  590
  652
  689
  728
  768
  810
  854
  900
  947
  997
  1,048
  1,103
  1,159
  1,218
  1,280
  1,344
  1,412
  1,483
  1,557
  1,634
  1,715
Tax expense, $m
  46
  87
  94
  101
  108
  116
  124
  132
  141
  150
  159
  176
  186
  197
  207
  219
  231
  243
  256
  269
  283
  298
  313
  329
  346
  363
  381
  400
  420
  441
  463
Net income, $m
  179
  236
  254
  273
  293
  314
  335
  358
  381
  405
  431
  476
  503
  531
  561
  591
  623
  657
  691
  728
  765
  805
  846
  889
  934
  981
  1,031
  1,082
  1,136
  1,193
  1,252

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  215
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,823
  3,082
  3,381
  3,692
  4,017
  4,355
  4,706
  5,072
  5,451
  5,846
  6,256
  6,682
  7,125
  7,586
  8,066
  8,565
  9,085
  9,627
  10,192
  10,781
  11,395
  12,037
  12,708
  13,408
  14,140
  14,906
  15,707
  16,545
  17,422
  18,341
  19,303
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,608
  3,082
  3,381
  3,692
  4,017
  4,355
  4,706
  5,072
  5,451
  5,846
  6,256
  6,682
  7,125
  7,586
  8,066
  8,565
  9,085
  9,627
  10,192
  10,781
  11,395
  12,037
  12,708
  13,408
  14,140
  14,906
  15,707
  16,545
  17,422
  18,341
  19,303
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.901
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
Average production assets, $m
  1,457
  1,700
  1,864
  2,036
  2,215
  2,401
  2,595
  2,797
  3,006
  3,224
  3,450
  3,685
  3,929
  4,183
  4,448
  4,723
  5,010
  5,309
  5,620
  5,945
  6,284
  6,638
  7,008
  7,394
  7,798
  8,220
  8,661
  9,124
  9,607
  10,114
  10,644
Working capital, $m
  361
  -118
  -130
  -141
  -154
  -167
  -180
  -194
  -209
  -224
  -240
  -256
  -273
  -291
  -309
  -328
  -348
  -369
  -391
  -413
  -437
  -461
  -487
  -514
  -542
  -571
  -602
  -634
  -668
  -703
  -740
Total debt, $m
  262
  379
  486
  598
  715
  836
  962
  1,093
  1,230
  1,371
  1,519
  1,672
  1,831
  1,996
  2,168
  2,347
  2,534
  2,729
  2,931
  3,143
  3,364
  3,594
  3,835
  4,086
  4,349
  4,624
  4,911
  5,212
  5,527
  5,857
  6,202
Total liabilities, $m
  1,198
  1,107
  1,214
  1,326
  1,442
  1,563
  1,690
  1,821
  1,957
  2,099
  2,246
  2,399
  2,558
  2,723
  2,896
  3,075
  3,261
  3,456
  3,659
  3,870
  4,091
  4,321
  4,562
  4,813
  5,076
  5,351
  5,639
  5,940
  6,255
  6,584
  6,930
Total equity, $m
  1,624
  1,976
  2,167
  2,367
  2,575
  2,791
  3,017
  3,251
  3,494
  3,747
  4,010
  4,283
  4,567
  4,863
  5,170
  5,490
  5,823
  6,171
  6,533
  6,910
  7,304
  7,716
  8,146
  8,595
  9,064
  9,555
  10,068
  10,605
  11,168
  11,756
  12,373
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,822
  3,083
  3,381
  3,693
  4,017
  4,354
  4,707
  5,072
  5,451
  5,846
  6,256
  6,682
  7,125
  7,586
  8,066
  8,565
  9,084
  9,627
  10,192
  10,780
  11,395
  12,037
  12,708
  13,408
  14,140
  14,906
  15,707
  16,545
  17,423
  18,340
  19,303
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.161
  0.190
  0.220
  0.250
  0.280
  0.300
  0.320
  0.340
  0.350
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.548
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  179
  236
  254
  273
  293
  314
  335
  358
  381
  405
  431
  476
  503
  531
  561
  591
  623
  657
  691
  728
  765
  805
  846
  889
  934
  981
  1,031
  1,082
  1,136
  1,193
  1,252
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  196
  213
  230
  248
  266
  286
  306
  327
  348
  371
  368
  393
  418
  445
  472
  501
  531
  562
  594
  628
  664
  701
  739
  780
  822
  866
  912
  961
  1,011
  1,064
Funds from operations, $m
  572
  432
  467
  503
  541
  580
  621
  664
  708
  754
  802
  844
  896
  950
  1,006
  1,064
  1,124
  1,188
  1,253
  1,322
  1,394
  1,469
  1,547
  1,629
  1,714
  1,803
  1,897
  1,995
  2,097
  2,204
  2,317
Change in working capital, $m
  286
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
Cash from operations, $m
  286
  443
  478
  515
  553
  593
  635
  678
  722
  769
  817
  861
  913
  967
  1,024
  1,083
  1,144
  1,208
  1,275
  1,345
  1,417
  1,493
  1,573
  1,655
  1,742
  1,833
  1,928
  2,027
  2,131
  2,239
  2,353
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -154
  -170
  -186
  -204
  -222
  -240
  -260
  -280
  -301
  -322
  -345
  -368
  -393
  -418
  -445
  -472
  -501
  -531
  -562
  -594
  -628
  -664
  -701
  -739
  -780
  -822
  -866
  -912
  -961
  -1,011
New CAPEX, $m
  -194
  -157
  -165
  -172
  -179
  -186
  -194
  -201
  -209
  -218
  -226
  -235
  -244
  -254
  -264
  -275
  -287
  -299
  -311
  -325
  -339
  -354
  -370
  -386
  -404
  -422
  -442
  -462
  -484
  -507
  -530
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -234
  -311
  -335
  -358
  -383
  -408
  -434
  -461
  -489
  -519
  -548
  -580
  -612
  -647
  -682
  -720
  -759
  -800
  -842
  -887
  -933
  -982
  -1,034
  -1,087
  -1,143
  -1,202
  -1,264
  -1,328
  -1,396
  -1,468
  -1,541
Free cash flow, $m
  52
  131
  144
  157
  171
  185
  201
  217
  233
  251
  269
  281
  300
  320
  341
  363
  385
  409
  433
  458
  484
  511
  539
  568
  599
  631
  664
  698
  735
  772
  812
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -7
  103
  107
  112
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  147
  153
  159
  165
  172
  179
  187
  195
  203
  211
  221
  230
  241
  251
  263
  275
  288
  301
  315
  330
  345
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -39
  103
  107
  112
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  147
  153
  159
  165
  172
  179
  187
  195
  203
  211
  221
  230
  241
  251
  263
  275
  288
  301
  315
  330
  345
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  16
  234
  251
  268
  287
  307
  327
  348
  370
  392
  416
  434
  459
  486
  513
  542
  572
  603
  635
  669
  705
  741
  780
  820
  862
  906
  951
  999
  1,049
  1,102
  1,157
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -29
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -208
  -217
  -225
  -234
  -243
  -253
  -263
  -273
  -284
  -295
  -307
  -320
  -333
  -347
  -362
  -378
  -394
  -411
  -430
  -449
  -469
  -491
  -513
  -537
  -562
  -589
  -617
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  53
  59
  69
  79
  90
  102
  114
  126
  140
  153
  160
  175
  190
  206
  222
  239
  256
  273
  292
  310
  330
  350
  371
  392
  415
  438
  462
  487
  513
  540
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  50
  54
  60
  65
  70
  74
  77
  79
  80
  80
  76
  75
  72
  69
  65
  61
  56
  50
  45
  39
  34
  29
  24
  20
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Compania Cervecerias Unidas S.A. is a diversified beverage company operating principally in Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia, Paraguay and Uruguay. The Company operates as a brewer, soft drinks producer, water and nectar producer, wine producer and pisco distributor. The Company's segments include Chile, International Business and Wine. The Company carries a portfolio of products, which includes a range of brands of alcoholic and non-alcoholic beer, with Cristal as its primary brand in Chile. In addition, it produces and distributes Heineken beer; distributes Sol beer and Budweiser beer, and distributes and produces Kunstmann and Austral beer in Chile. The International Business segment includes operations in Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay. The Company, through Vina San Pedro Tarapaca S.A. (VSPT), produces and markets a range of wine products for the domestic and mainly the export market.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR (CCU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 53.3
Price to Sales 4.1
Price to Book 5.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 33.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 103.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -2.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 11%
Total Debt to Equity 16.1%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Return On Total Capital 9.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Return On Equity 11.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 52.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.4%
EBITDA Margin 12%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Operating Margin 12.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Net Profit Margin 7.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Effective Tax Rate 17.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.9%
Payout Ratio 58.7%

CCU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CCU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2330 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CCU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CCU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CCU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CCU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 11.4% for Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CCU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CCU are equal to 66.2%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CCU is equal to -4.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1794 million for Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 370 million for Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $9.5 billion.

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Financial statements of CCU
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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