Intrinsic value of Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR - CCU

Previous Close

$28.63

  Intrinsic Value

$7.90

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-72%

Previous close

$28.63

 
Intrinsic value

$7.90

 
Up/down potential

-72%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CCU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.03
  10.60
  10.04
  9.54
  9.08
  8.67
  8.31
  7.98
  7.68
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.76
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.93
  5.84
  5.76
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.33
  5.29
  5.26
Revenue, $m
  2,350
  2,599
  2,860
  3,133
  3,417
  3,714
  4,022
  4,343
  4,677
  5,023
  5,383
  5,757
  6,147
  6,551
  6,972
  7,410
  7,866
  8,341
  8,836
  9,352
  9,890
  10,452
  11,038
  11,651
  12,292
  12,961
  13,661
  14,394
  15,160
  15,963
  16,803
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,226
  2,448
  2,680
  2,922
  3,174
  3,437
  3,710
  3,993
  4,288
  4,595
  4,898
  5,229
  5,574
  5,932
  6,304
  6,692
  7,096
  7,517
  7,956
  8,414
  8,892
  9,391
  9,913
  10,458
  11,027
  11,623
  12,246
  12,898
  13,581
  14,296
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,060
  2,226
  2,448
  2,680
  2,922
  3,174
  3,437
  3,710
  3,993
  4,288
  4,595
  4,898
  5,229
  5,574
  5,932
  6,304
  6,692
  7,096
  7,517
  7,956
  8,414
  8,892
  9,391
  9,913
  10,458
  11,027
  11,623
  12,246
  12,898
  13,581
  14,296
Operating income, $m
  290
  373
  412
  453
  495
  540
  586
  633
  683
  735
  789
  859
  917
  978
  1,040
  1,106
  1,174
  1,245
  1,318
  1,395
  1,476
  1,560
  1,647
  1,739
  1,834
  1,934
  2,038
  2,148
  2,262
  2,382
  2,507
EBITDA, $m
  290
  549
  604
  662
  722
  784
  850
  917
  988
  1,061
  1,137
  1,216
  1,298
  1,384
  1,473
  1,565
  1,661
  1,762
  1,866
  1,975
  2,089
  2,208
  2,331
  2,461
  2,596
  2,738
  2,885
  3,040
  3,202
  3,372
  3,549
Interest expense (income), $m
  26
  17
  29
  41
  53
  67
  80
  94
  109
  125
  141
  157
  174
  192
  211
  230
  251
  272
  293
  316
  340
  365
  391
  418
  446
  475
  506
  539
  572
  608
  645
Earnings before tax, $m
  257
  356
  383
  412
  442
  473
  505
  539
  574
  610
  648
  702
  743
  785
  829
  875
  923
  973
  1,025
  1,079
  1,136
  1,195
  1,256
  1,321
  1,388
  1,458
  1,532
  1,609
  1,690
  1,774
  1,863
Tax expense, $m
  46
  96
  103
  111
  119
  128
  136
  146
  155
  165
  175
  190
  201
  212
  224
  236
  249
  263
  277
  291
  307
  323
  339
  357
  375
  394
  414
  434
  456
  479
  503
Net income, $m
  179
  260
  280
  301
  323
  345
  369
  393
  419
  446
  473
  512
  542
  573
  605
  639
  674
  710
  748
  788
  829
  872
  917
  964
  1,013
  1,065
  1,118
  1,175
  1,234
  1,295
  1,360

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  215
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,823
  2,885
  3,174
  3,477
  3,793
  4,122
  4,464
  4,820
  5,190
  5,575
  5,975
  6,390
  6,822
  7,271
  7,738
  8,224
  8,730
  9,257
  9,806
  10,379
  10,977
  11,600
  12,251
  12,931
  13,642
  14,385
  15,162
  15,975
  16,826
  17,717
  18,649
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,608
  2,885
  3,174
  3,477
  3,793
  4,122
  4,464
  4,820
  5,190
  5,575
  5,975
  6,390
  6,822
  7,271
  7,738
  8,224
  8,730
  9,257
  9,806
  10,379
  10,977
  11,600
  12,251
  12,931
  13,642
  14,385
  15,162
  15,975
  16,826
  17,717
  18,649
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
Average production assets, $m
  1,457
  1,611
  1,773
  1,942
  2,119
  2,303
  2,494
  2,693
  2,899
  3,114
  3,338
  3,570
  3,811
  4,062
  4,323
  4,594
  4,877
  5,171
  5,478
  5,798
  6,132
  6,480
  6,844
  7,224
  7,621
  8,036
  8,470
  8,924
  9,399
  9,897
  10,418
Working capital, $m
  361
  255
  280
  307
  335
  364
  394
  426
  458
  492
  528
  564
  602
  642
  683
  726
  771
  817
  866
  916
  969
  1,024
  1,082
  1,142
  1,205
  1,270
  1,339
  1,411
  1,486
  1,564
  1,647
Total debt, $m
  262
  298
  422
  551
  686
  827
  974
  1,126
  1,284
  1,449
  1,620
  1,798
  1,983
  2,175
  2,375
  2,583
  2,799
  3,025
  3,260
  3,505
  3,761
  4,028
  4,307
  4,598
  4,902
  5,220
  5,552
  5,900
  6,265
  6,646
  7,045
Total liabilities, $m
  1,198
  1,235
  1,359
  1,488
  1,623
  1,764
  1,911
  2,063
  2,221
  2,386
  2,557
  2,735
  2,920
  3,112
  3,312
  3,520
  3,736
  3,962
  4,197
  4,442
  4,698
  4,965
  5,244
  5,535
  5,839
  6,157
  6,489
  6,837
  7,202
  7,583
  7,982
Total equity, $m
  1,624
  1,650
  1,816
  1,989
  2,169
  2,358
  2,554
  2,757
  2,969
  3,189
  3,418
  3,655
  3,902
  4,159
  4,426
  4,704
  4,994
  5,295
  5,609
  5,937
  6,279
  6,635
  7,008
  7,397
  7,803
  8,228
  8,673
  9,138
  9,624
  10,134
  10,667
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,822
  2,885
  3,175
  3,477
  3,792
  4,122
  4,465
  4,820
  5,190
  5,575
  5,975
  6,390
  6,822
  7,271
  7,738
  8,224
  8,730
  9,257
  9,806
  10,379
  10,977
  11,600
  12,252
  12,932
  13,642
  14,385
  15,162
  15,975
  16,826
  17,717
  18,649
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.161
  0.180
  0.230
  0.280
  0.320
  0.350
  0.380
  0.410
  0.430
  0.450
  0.470
  0.490
  0.510
  0.520
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.650
  0.660
  0.660
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.548
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572
  0.572

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  179
  260
  280
  301
  323
  345
  369
  393
  419
  446
  473
  512
  542
  573
  605
  639
  674
  710
  748
  788
  829
  872
  917
  964
  1,013
  1,065
  1,118
  1,175
  1,234
  1,295
  1,360
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  176
  192
  209
  226
  245
  264
  284
  305
  326
  348
  357
  381
  406
  432
  459
  488
  517
  548
  580
  613
  648
  684
  722
  762
  804
  847
  892
  940
  990
  1,042
Funds from operations, $m
  572
  436
  472
  510
  549
  590
  633
  677
  724
  772
  821
  869
  923
  979
  1,038
  1,098
  1,162
  1,227
  1,296
  1,368
  1,442
  1,520
  1,602
  1,687
  1,775
  1,868
  1,965
  2,067
  2,173
  2,285
  2,401
Change in working capital, $m
  286
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
Cash from operations, $m
  286
  411
  446
  483
  521
  561
  603
  646
  691
  738
  786
  833
  885
  940
  996
  1,055
  1,117
  1,181
  1,248
  1,317
  1,389
  1,465
  1,544
  1,626
  1,713
  1,803
  1,897
  1,995
  2,098
  2,206
  2,319
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -146
  -161
  -177
  -194
  -212
  -230
  -249
  -269
  -290
  -311
  -334
  -357
  -381
  -406
  -432
  -459
  -488
  -517
  -548
  -580
  -613
  -648
  -684
  -722
  -762
  -804
  -847
  -892
  -940
  -990
New CAPEX, $m
  -194
  -154
  -162
  -169
  -176
  -184
  -191
  -199
  -207
  -215
  -223
  -232
  -241
  -251
  -261
  -272
  -283
  -294
  -307
  -320
  -334
  -348
  -364
  -380
  -397
  -415
  -434
  -454
  -475
  -498
  -521
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -234
  -300
  -323
  -346
  -370
  -396
  -421
  -448
  -476
  -505
  -534
  -566
  -598
  -632
  -667
  -704
  -742
  -782
  -824
  -868
  -914
  -961
  -1,012
  -1,064
  -1,119
  -1,177
  -1,238
  -1,301
  -1,367
  -1,438
  -1,511
Free cash flow, $m
  52
  111
  123
  136
  150
  165
  181
  198
  215
  233
  251
  267
  287
  308
  329
  352
  375
  399
  424
  449
  476
  504
  532
  562
  593
  626
  659
  694
  731
  769
  808
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -7
  120
  124
  130
  135
  141
  147
  152
  158
  165
  171
  178
  185
  192
  200
  208
  217
  226
  235
  245
  256
  267
  279
  291
  304
  318
  333
  348
  364
  381
  399
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -39
  120
  124
  130
  135
  141
  147
  152
  158
  165
  171
  178
  185
  192
  200
  208
  217
  226
  235
  245
  256
  267
  279
  291
  304
  318
  333
  348
  364
  381
  399
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  16
  231
  247
  266
  286
  306
  328
  350
  373
  397
  423
  445
  472
  500
  529
  560
  591
  624
  659
  694
  732
  770
  811
  853
  897
  944
  992
  1,042
  1,095
  1,150
  1,208
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -29
  -157
  -166
  -173
  -181
  -188
  -196
  -204
  -212
  -220
  -229
  -238
  -247
  -257
  -267
  -278
  -289
  -301
  -314
  -328
  -342
  -357
  -372
  -389
  -407
  -425
  -444
  -465
  -487
  -509
  -533
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  131
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  205
  82
  93
  105
  118
  132
  146
  162
  177
  194
  207
  225
  243
  262
  282
  302
  323
  344
  367
  390
  414
  439
  464
  491
  519
  547
  577
  608
  640
  674
Discount rate, %
 
  6.00
  6.30
  6.62
  6.95
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.78
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.10
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.72
  17.55
  18.43
  19.35
  20.32
  21.33
  22.40
  23.52
  24.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  193
  72
  77
  80
  83
  85
  85
  84
  83
  80
  74
  70
  64
  58
  52
  46
  40
  34
  28
  23
  19
  15
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Compania Cervecerias Unidas S.A. is a diversified beverage company operating principally in Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia, Paraguay and Uruguay. The Company operates as a brewer, soft drinks producer, water and nectar producer, wine producer and pisco distributor. The Company's segments include Chile, International Business and Wine. The Company carries a portfolio of products, which includes a range of brands of alcoholic and non-alcoholic beer, with Cristal as its primary brand in Chile. In addition, it produces and distributes Heineken beer; distributes Sol beer and Budweiser beer, and distributes and produces Kunstmann and Austral beer in Chile. The International Business segment includes operations in Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay. The Company, through Vina San Pedro Tarapaca S.A. (VSPT), produces and markets a range of wine products for the domestic and mainly the export market.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR (CCU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 59.1
Price to Sales 4.5
Price to Book 6.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 37
Price to Free Cash Flow 115
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -2.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 11%
Total Debt to Equity 16.1%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Return On Total Capital 9.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Return On Equity 11.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 52.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.4%
EBITDA Margin 12%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Operating Margin 12.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Net Profit Margin 7.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Effective Tax Rate 17.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.9%
Payout Ratio 58.7%

CCU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CCU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2350 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CCU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6%, whose default value for CCU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CCU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 85.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CCU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.7% for Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CCU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CCU are equal to 62%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CCU is equal to 9.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1624 million for Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 187.965 million for Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.4 billion.

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Financial statements of CCU
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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