Intrinsic value of Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR - CCU

Previous Close

$27.87

  Intrinsic Value

$9.49

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-66%

  Value-price divergence*

-126%

Previous close

$27.87

 
Intrinsic value

$9.49

 
Up/down potential

-66%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-126%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CCU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.03
  8.30
  7.97
  7.67
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.75
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.93
  5.84
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.16
Revenue, $m
  2,350
  2,545
  2,748
  2,959
  3,178
  3,406
  3,642
  3,888
  4,144
  4,410
  4,687
  4,975
  5,275
  5,588
  5,915
  6,255
  6,610
  6,981
  7,369
  7,774
  8,197
  8,640
  9,103
  9,588
  10,095
  10,626
  11,183
  11,766
  12,377
  13,017
  13,688
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,180
  2,352
  2,532
  2,718
  2,912
  3,113
  3,323
  3,540
  3,767
  4,002
  4,233
  4,488
  4,755
  5,032
  5,322
  5,624
  5,940
  6,269
  6,614
  6,974
  7,351
  7,745
  8,157
  8,589
  9,041
  9,514
  10,010
  10,530
  11,075
  11,646
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,060
  2,180
  2,352
  2,532
  2,718
  2,912
  3,113
  3,323
  3,540
  3,767
  4,002
  4,233
  4,488
  4,755
  5,032
  5,322
  5,624
  5,940
  6,269
  6,614
  6,974
  7,351
  7,745
  8,157
  8,589
  9,041
  9,514
  10,010
  10,530
  11,075
  11,646
Operating income, $m
  290
  365
  395
  427
  460
  494
  529
  566
  604
  643
  685
  742
  787
  834
  883
  933
  986
  1,042
  1,100
  1,160
  1,223
  1,289
  1,358
  1,431
  1,506
  1,586
  1,669
  1,756
  1,847
  1,942
  2,042
EBITDA, $m
  290
  526
  568
  612
  657
  704
  753
  804
  857
  912
  969
  1,029
  1,091
  1,156
  1,223
  1,294
  1,367
  1,444
  1,524
  1,608
  1,695
  1,787
  1,883
  1,983
  2,088
  2,198
  2,313
  2,433
  2,560
  2,692
  2,831
Interest expense (income), $m
  26
  17
  26
  36
  45
  55
  66
  77
  88
  100
  112
  125
  138
  152
  166
  181
  197
  213
  230
  248
  267
  286
  306
  328
  350
  373
  398
  423
  450
  478
  508
Earnings before tax, $m
  257
  348
  369
  391
  414
  438
  463
  489
  516
  544
  573
  618
  649
  682
  716
  752
  790
  829
  869
  912
  957
  1,003
  1,052
  1,103
  1,156
  1,212
  1,271
  1,332
  1,397
  1,464
  1,535
Tax expense, $m
  46
  94
  100
  106
  112
  118
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
  167
  175
  184
  193
  203
  213
  224
  235
  246
  258
  271
  284
  298
  312
  327
  343
  360
  377
  395
  414
Net income, $m
  179
  254
  270
  286
  302
  320
  338
  357
  377
  397
  418
  451
  474
  498
  523
  549
  576
  605
  635
  666
  698
  732
  768
  805
  844
  885
  928
  973
  1,020
  1,069
  1,120

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  214
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,822
  2,825
  3,050
  3,284
  3,527
  3,780
  4,042
  4,315
  4,599
  4,895
  5,202
  5,522
  5,855
  6,202
  6,565
  6,942
  7,337
  7,748
  8,178
  8,628
  9,098
  9,589
  10,103
  10,641
  11,204
  11,794
  12,412
  13,059
  13,737
  14,447
  15,192
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,608
  2,825
  3,050
  3,284
  3,527
  3,780
  4,042
  4,315
  4,599
  4,895
  5,202
  5,522
  5,855
  6,202
  6,565
  6,942
  7,337
  7,748
  8,178
  8,628
  9,098
  9,589
  10,103
  10,641
  11,204
  11,794
  12,412
  13,059
  13,737
  14,447
  15,192
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
Average production assets, $m
  1,353
  1,466
  1,583
  1,704
  1,830
  1,962
  2,098
  2,240
  2,387
  2,540
  2,700
  2,866
  3,039
  3,219
  3,407
  3,603
  3,808
  4,021
  4,244
  4,478
  4,721
  4,977
  5,243
  5,523
  5,815
  6,121
  6,441
  6,777
  7,129
  7,498
  7,884
Working capital, $m
  360
  249
  269
  290
  311
  334
  357
  381
  406
  432
  459
  488
  517
  548
  580
  613
  648
  684
  722
  762
  803
  847
  892
  940
  989
  1,041
  1,096
  1,153
  1,213
  1,276
  1,341
Total debt, $m
  262
  270
  366
  466
  570
  678
  790
  907
  1,028
  1,154
  1,285
  1,422
  1,564
  1,712
  1,867
  2,028
  2,197
  2,373
  2,556
  2,748
  2,949
  3,159
  3,378
  3,608
  3,848
  4,100
  4,364
  4,640
  4,930
  5,233
  5,551
Total liabilities, $m
  1,198
  1,206
  1,302
  1,402
  1,506
  1,614
  1,726
  1,843
  1,964
  2,090
  2,221
  2,358
  2,500
  2,648
  2,803
  2,964
  3,133
  3,309
  3,492
  3,684
  3,885
  4,095
  4,314
  4,544
  4,784
  5,036
  5,300
  5,576
  5,866
  6,169
  6,487
Total equity, $m
  1,624
  1,619
  1,748
  1,882
  2,021
  2,166
  2,316
  2,473
  2,635
  2,805
  2,981
  3,164
  3,355
  3,554
  3,762
  3,978
  4,204
  4,440
  4,686
  4,944
  5,213
  5,495
  5,789
  6,097
  6,420
  6,758
  7,112
  7,483
  7,871
  8,278
  8,705
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,822
  2,825
  3,050
  3,284
  3,527
  3,780
  4,042
  4,316
  4,599
  4,895
  5,202
  5,522
  5,855
  6,202
  6,565
  6,942
  7,337
  7,749
  8,178
  8,628
  9,098
  9,590
  10,103
  10,641
  11,204
  11,794
  12,412
  13,059
  13,737
  14,447
  15,192
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.161
  0.170
  0.210
  0.250
  0.280
  0.310
  0.340
  0.370
  0.390
  0.410
  0.430
  0.450
  0.470
  0.480
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.630
  0.640
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.548
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573
  0.573

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  179
  254
  270
  286
  302
  320
  338
  357
  377
  397
  418
  451
  474
  498
  523
  549
  576
  605
  635
  666
  698
  732
  768
  805
  844
  885
  928
  973
  1,020
  1,069
  1,120
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  161
  173
  185
  198
  211
  224
  239
  253
  269
  285
  287
  304
  322
  341
  360
  381
  402
  424
  448
  472
  498
  524
  552
  581
  612
  644
  678
  713
  750
  788
Funds from operations, $m
  572
  415
  442
  471
  500
  531
  562
  595
  630
  666
  703
  737
  778
  820
  864
  909
  957
  1,007
  1,059
  1,114
  1,170
  1,230
  1,292
  1,357
  1,426
  1,497
  1,572
  1,650
  1,732
  1,819
  1,909
Change in working capital, $m
  286
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
Cash from operations, $m
  286
  396
  423
  450
  479
  508
  539
  571
  605
  639
  676
  709
  748
  789
  832
  876
  922
  971
  1,021
  1,074
  1,129
  1,187
  1,247
  1,310
  1,376
  1,445
  1,517
  1,593
  1,673
  1,756
  1,843
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -135
  -147
  -158
  -170
  -183
  -196
  -210
  -224
  -239
  -254
  -270
  -287
  -304
  -322
  -341
  -360
  -381
  -402
  -424
  -448
  -472
  -498
  -524
  -552
  -581
  -612
  -644
  -678
  -713
  -750
New CAPEX, $m
  -194
  -113
  -117
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -147
  -153
  -159
  -166
  -173
  -180
  -188
  -196
  -205
  -214
  -223
  -233
  -244
  -255
  -267
  -279
  -292
  -306
  -321
  -336
  -352
  -369
  -387
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -234
  -248
  -264
  -279
  -296
  -314
  -332
  -352
  -371
  -392
  -413
  -436
  -460
  -484
  -510
  -537
  -565
  -595
  -625
  -657
  -692
  -727
  -765
  -803
  -844
  -887
  -933
  -980
  -1,030
  -1,082
  -1,137
Free cash flow, $m
  52
  147
  159
  170
  182
  194
  207
  220
  233
  248
  262
  273
  289
  305
  322
  339
  357
  376
  396
  416
  437
  459
  482
  506
  531
  557
  585
  613
  643
  674
  707
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -7
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  121
  126
  131
  137
  142
  148
  155
  161
  168
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  220
  230
  240
  252
  264
  276
  290
  303
  318
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -39
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  121
  126
  131
  137
  142
  148
  155
  161
  168
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  220
  230
  240
  252
  264
  276
  290
  303
  318
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  16
  239
  255
  270
  286
  302
  319
  336
  355
  374
  393
  410
  431
  453
  477
  501
  526
  552
  579
  608
  638
  669
  702
  736
  772
  809
  848
  890
  933
  978
  1,025
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -29
  -125
  -129
  -134
  -139
  -145
  -150
  -156
  -163
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -191
  -199
  -208
  -216
  -226
  -236
  -246
  -258
  -269
  -282
  -295
  -308
  -323
  -338
  -354
  -371
  -388
  -407
  -427
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  130
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  245
  126
  136
  147
  157
  168
  180
  192
  204
  217
  227
  240
  254
  269
  284
  300
  316
  333
  351
  369
  388
  407
  428
  449
  471
  495
  519
  544
  570
  598
Discount rate, %
 
  6.00
  6.30
  6.62
  6.95
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.78
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.10
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.72
  17.55
  18.43
  19.35
  20.32
  21.33
  22.40
  23.52
  24.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  231
  112
  112
  112
  111
  108
  105
  100
  95
  89
  81
  74
  67
  60
  53
  46
  39
  33
  27
  22
  17
  14
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Compania Cervecerias Unidas S.A. is a diversified beverage company operating principally in Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia, Paraguay and Uruguay. The Company operates as a brewer, soft drinks producer, water and nectar producer, wine producer and pisco distributor. The Company's segments include Chile, International Business and Wine. The Company carries a portfolio of products, which includes a range of brands of alcoholic and non-alcoholic beer, with Cristal as its primary brand in Chile. In addition, it produces and distributes Heineken beer; distributes Sol beer and Budweiser beer, and distributes and produces Kunstmann and Austral beer in Chile. The International Business segment includes operations in Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay. The Company, through Vina San Pedro Tarapaca S.A. (VSPT), produces and markets a range of wine products for the domestic and mainly the export market.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR (CCU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 57.5
Price to Sales 4.4
Price to Book 6.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 36
Price to Free Cash Flow 111.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -2.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 11%
Total Debt to Equity 16.1%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Return On Total Capital 9.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Return On Equity 11.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 52.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.4%
EBITDA Margin 12%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Operating Margin 12.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Net Profit Margin 7.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Effective Tax Rate 17.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.9%
Payout Ratio 58.7%

CCU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CCU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2350 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CCU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6%, whose default value for CCU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CCU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 85.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CCU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.7% for Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CCU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CCU are equal to 57.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CCU is equal to 9.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1624 million for Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 183.858 million for Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Compania Cervecerias Unidas ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.1 billion.

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Financial statements of CCU
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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