Intrinsic value of CDI - CDI

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$6.20

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$6.20

 
Intrinsic value

$1.99

 
Up/down potential

-68%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CDI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -12.28
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  864
  881
  902
  925
  951
  980
  1,011
  1,046
  1,083
  1,123
  1,166
  1,212
  1,261
  1,314
  1,370
  1,429
  1,491
  1,557
  1,628
  1,702
  1,780
  1,862
  1,949
  2,041
  2,138
  2,239
  2,347
  2,459
  2,578
  2,703
  2,834
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  867
  887
  910
  935
  963
  994
  1,028
  1,064
  1,104
  1,146
  1,187
  1,235
  1,286
  1,340
  1,398
  1,460
  1,524
  1,593
  1,666
  1,742
  1,823
  1,908
  1,998
  2,092
  2,192
  2,297
  2,407
  2,523
  2,646
  2,774
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  47
  48
  50
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  57
  59
  60
  62
  63
  65
  67
  68
  70
  72
  74
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  87
  90
  92
  94
  96
Total operating expenses, $m
  895
  914
  935
  960
  986
  1,015
  1,047
  1,083
  1,120
  1,161
  1,205
  1,247
  1,297
  1,349
  1,405
  1,465
  1,528
  1,594
  1,665
  1,740
  1,817
  1,900
  1,987
  2,079
  2,175
  2,277
  2,384
  2,497
  2,615
  2,740
  2,870
Operating income, $m
  -30
  -33
  -34
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -38
  -39
  -35
  -35
  -36
  -36
  -36
  -37
  -37
  -37
  -37
  -38
  -38
  -38
  -38
  -38
  -38
  -38
  -37
  -37
  -37
  -36
EBITDA, $m
  -20
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -29
  -29
  -29
  -29
  -29
  -29
  -29
  -29
  -28
  -28
  -27
  -27
  -26
  -26
  -25
  -24
  -23
  -22
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
Earnings before tax, $m
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -49
  -50
  -51
  -52
  -53
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -59
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -49
  -50
  -51
  -52
  -53
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -59

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  289
  292
  298
  306
  315
  324
  335
  346
  358
  372
  386
  401
  418
  435
  453
  473
  494
  516
  539
  563
  589
  616
  645
  676
  708
  741
  777
  814
  853
  895
  938
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  286
  292
  298
  306
  315
  324
  335
  346
  358
  372
  386
  401
  418
  435
  453
  473
  494
  516
  539
  563
  589
  616
  645
  676
  708
  741
  777
  814
  853
  895
  938
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.021
  3.017
  3.027
  3.023
  3.019
  3.025
  3.018
  3.023
  3.025
  3.019
  3.021
  3.022
  3.017
  3.021
  3.024
  3.021
  3.018
  3.017
  3.020
  3.023
  3.022
  3.023
  3.022
  3.019
  3.020
  3.022
  3.021
  3.021
  3.022
  3.020
  3.021
Average production assets, $m
  37
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  114
  119
Working capital, $m
  115
  115
  117
  120
  124
  127
  131
  136
  141
  146
  152
  158
  164
  171
  178
  186
  194
  202
  212
  221
  231
  242
  253
  265
  278
  291
  305
  320
  335
  351
  368
Total debt, $m
  0
  2
  4
  7
  10
  13
  17
  21
  25
  30
  35
  40
  46
  52
  59
  66
  73
  80
  89
  97
  106
  116
  126
  136
  148
  159
  172
  185
  199
  213
  228
Total liabilities, $m
  100
  102
  104
  107
  110
  113
  117
  121
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  173
  180
  189
  197
  206
  216
  226
  236
  248
  259
  272
  285
  299
  313
  328
Total equity, $m
  189
  190
  194
  199
  205
  211
  218
  225
  233
  242
  251
  261
  271
  283
  295
  307
  321
  335
  350
  366
  383
  401
  419
  439
  460
  482
  505
  529
  555
  582
  610
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  289
  292
  298
  306
  315
  324
  335
  346
  358
  372
  386
  401
  417
  435
  454
  473
  494
  515
  539
  563
  589
  617
  645
  675
  708
  741
  777
  814
  854
  895
  938
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.010
  0.020
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.080
  0.090
  0.110
  0.120
  0.140
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.200
  0.210
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.370
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -49
  -50
  -51
  -52
  -53
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -59
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  10
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
Funds from operations, $m
  30
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -41
  -42
  -42
  -43
  -43
  -44
  -44
Change in working capital, $m
  17
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
Cash from operations, $m
  13
  -29
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -50
  -51
  -53
  -54
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -59
  -60
  -61
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
New CAPEX, $m
  -8
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -20
Free cash flow, $m
  9
  -34
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -79
  -81
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -16
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -7
  32
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  69
  71
  73
  76
  78
  80
  83
  86
  88
  91
  94
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -23
  34
  37
  40
  41
  43
  46
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  72
  75
  78
  81
  83
  87
  89
  92
  95
  99
  102
  105
  109
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -14
  -32
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -52
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -64
  -65
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  32
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  80.2
  63.5
  50.0
  39.3
  30.7
  23.9
  18.6
  14.5
  11.2
  8.7
  6.8
  5.3
  4.1
  3.2
  2.5
  1.9
  1.5
  1.2
  0.9
  0.7
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1

CDI Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provides engineering, information technology, and staffing solutions. It operates through three segments: Global Engineering and Technology Solutions, Professional Staffing Services, and Management Recruiters International. The Global Engineering and Technology Solutions segment offers engineering and information technology solutions that include the analysis of a customer's engineering or information technology needs and the development of solutions. The Professional Staffing Services segment provides skilled technical and professional personnel for discrete periods of time; permanent placement services; and professional staffing services, such as managed services and managed staffing programs, and functional staffing outsourcing. The Management Recruiters International segment operates as a franchisor and provides the use of its trademarks, business systems, and training and support services to its franchisees who engage in the search and recruitment of executive, technical, professional, and managerial personnel for employment by their customers. This segment also offers training and support, implementation, and back-office services to enable franchisees to pursue contract staffing opportunities. The company serves corporate, federal, state, and municipal entities in various industries, including oil, gas and chemical, aerospace and industrial equipment, information technology, and other industries. CDI Corp. serves customers through its offices and delivery centers in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. The company was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CDI (CDI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -3.6
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 0.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 23.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -12.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage -30
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -9.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.5%
Return On Total Capital -14.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.4%
Return On Equity -15.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.8%
Asset Turnover 2.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 18.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.7%
EBITDA Margin -2.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.9%
Operating Margin -3.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2%
Pre-Tax Margin -3.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2%
Net Profit Margin -3.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.4%
Effective Tax Rate -3.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

CDI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CDI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $864 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CDI. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of CDI. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CDI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CDI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CDI, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CDI.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CDI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $46 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CDI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 10.5% for CDI.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CDI. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CDI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CDI are equal to 4.2%.

Life of production assets of 8.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CDI operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CDI is equal to 13%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $189 million for CDI - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 18.094 million for CDI is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CDI at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to CDI Corp. : May 15, 2017   [May-15-17 03:24PM  Capital Cube]
▶ CDI reports 1Q loss   [May-10-17 05:16PM  Associated Press]
▶ CDI Corp. To Hold First Quarter 2017 Webcast   [May-02-17 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ A Look at the $13b LVMH-Christian Dior Deal   [Apr-25-17 10:11AM  Investopedia]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CDI Corp. : April 24, 2017   [Apr-24-17 02:20PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CDI Corp. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 04:28PM  Capital Cube]
▶ CDI reports 4Q loss   [05:42PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is 75 Too Old for the Boardroom? It Depends   [12:43PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Is CDI Corp. (CDI) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-15-16 08:37AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ CDI Corp. Reports Third Quarter 2016 Results   [Nov-02-16 06:55PM  PR Newswire]
▶ CDI Corp. Reports Second Quarter 2016 Results   [Aug-03-16 06:45PM  PR Newswire]
▶ CDI Corp. Reports First Quarter 2016 Results   [May-04-16 06:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ 5 Hated Stocks Set to Soar on Bullish Earnings   [Mar-01-16 01:56PM  at TheStreet]
Stock chart of CDI Financial statements of CDI Annual reports of CDI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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