Intrinsic value of CareDx - CDNA

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$0.79

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$0.79

 
Intrinsic value

$61.49

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CDNA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2015), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2015(a)
   2016
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.70
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  28
  45
  69
  104
  150
  212
  291
  391
  513
  661
  834
  1,036
  1,267
  1,527
  1,817
  2,136
  2,485
  2,863
  3,268
  3,702
  4,162
  4,648
  5,160
  5,698
  6,260
  6,848
  7,461
  8,099
  8,763
  9,453
  10,171
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  42
  65
  97
  140
  196
  270
  361
  474
  610
  770
  955
  1,167
  1,407
  1,674
  1,968
  2,289
  2,637
  3,011
  3,410
  3,833
  4,281
  4,753
  5,248
  5,766
  6,308
  6,872
  7,460
  8,072
  8,708
  9,369
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  40
  42
  65
  97
  140
  196
  270
  361
  474
  610
  770
  955
  1,167
  1,407
  1,674
  1,968
  2,289
  2,637
  3,011
  3,410
  3,833
  4,281
  4,753
  5,248
  5,766
  6,308
  6,872
  7,460
  8,072
  8,708
  9,369
Operating income, $m
  -12
  2
  4
  7
  11
  16
  22
  30
  39
  51
  65
  82
  100
  120
  143
  168
  196
  226
  258
  292
  328
  367
  407
  449
  494
  540
  588
  639
  691
  745
  802
EBITDA, $m
  -11
  4
  6
  10
  14
  20
  27
  36
  48
  62
  78
  97
  118
  142
  169
  199
  232
  267
  304
  345
  388
  433
  481
  531
  583
  638
  695
  754
  816
  881
  947
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  2
  3
  6
  8
  12
  17
  23
  31
  40
  51
  63
  78
  94
  112
  131
  153
  176
  201
  228
  257
  287
  318
  352
  386
  423
  461
  500
  541
  584
Earnings before tax, $m
  -14
  1
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  12
  16
  20
  25
  31
  37
  43
  50
  57
  65
  73
  82
  91
  100
  110
  120
  131
  142
  154
  166
  178
  191
  204
  218
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  24
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
Net income, $m
  -14
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  9
  12
  15
  18
  23
  27
  31
  36
  42
  47
  53
  60
  66
  73
  80
  88
  96
  104
  112
  121
  130
  139
  149
  159

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  30
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  56
  42
  64
  96
  139
  197
  270
  363
  477
  613
  775
  962
  1,176
  1,418
  1,687
  1,984
  2,307
  2,658
  3,035
  3,437
  3,864
  4,316
  4,791
  5,290
  5,813
  6,358
  6,927
  7,520
  8,136
  8,777
  9,443
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  26
  42
  64
  96
  139
  197
  270
  363
  477
  613
  775
  962
  1,176
  1,418
  1,687
  1,984
  2,307
  2,658
  3,035
  3,437
  3,864
  4,316
  4,791
  5,290
  5,813
  6,358
  6,927
  7,520
  8,136
  8,777
  9,443
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.077
  1.071
  1.078
  1.083
  1.079
  1.076
  1.078
  1.077
  1.075
  1.078
  1.076
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
Average production assets, $m
  8
  13
  20
  30
  43
  61
  83
  112
  147
  189
  239
  296
  362
  437
  520
  611
  711
  819
  935
  1,059
  1,190
  1,329
  1,476
  1,629
  1,790
  1,958
  2,134
  2,316
  2,506
  2,704
  2,909
Working capital, $m
  24
  -5
  -7
  -11
  -16
  -23
  -31
  -42
  -55
  -71
  -89
  -111
  -136
  -163
  -194
  -229
  -266
  -306
  -350
  -396
  -445
  -497
  -552
  -610
  -670
  -733
  -798
  -867
  -938
  -1,011
  -1,088
Total debt, $m
  16
  26
  47
  76
  115
  166
  232
  316
  418
  541
  686
  855
  1,048
  1,265
  1,507
  1,774
  2,066
  2,381
  2,720
  3,082
  3,467
  3,873
  4,301
  4,750
  5,220
  5,711
  6,223
  6,757
  7,312
  7,888
  8,488
Total liabilities, $m
  26
  37
  58
  87
  126
  177
  243
  327
  429
  552
  697
  866
  1,059
  1,276
  1,518
  1,785
  2,077
  2,392
  2,731
  3,093
  3,478
  3,884
  4,312
  4,761
  5,231
  5,722
  6,234
  6,768
  7,323
  7,899
  8,499
Total equity, $m
  29
  4
  6
  10
  14
  20
  27
  36
  48
  61
  77
  96
  118
  142
  169
  198
  231
  266
  303
  344
  386
  432
  479
  529
  581
  636
  693
  752
  814
  878
  944
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  55
  41
  64
  97
  140
  197
  270
  363
  477
  613
  774
  962
  1,177
  1,418
  1,687
  1,983
  2,308
  2,658
  3,034
  3,437
  3,864
  4,316
  4,791
  5,290
  5,812
  6,358
  6,927
  7,520
  8,137
  8,777
  9,443
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.552
  6.360
  7.290
  7.860
  8.210
  8.440
  8.590
  8.700
  8.770
  8.820
  8.860
  8.890
  8.910
  8.920
  8.930
  8.940
  8.950
  8.960
  8.960
  8.970
  8.970
  8.970
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.990
  8.990
  8.990
  8.990
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.038
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -14
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  9
  12
  15
  18
  23
  27
  31
  36
  42
  47
  53
  60
  66
  73
  80
  88
  96
  104
  112
  121
  130
  139
  149
  159
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  18
  22
  26
  31
  36
  41
  47
  53
  60
  66
  74
  81
  90
  98
  107
  116
  125
  135
  145
Funds from operations, $m
  -8
  3
  4
  5
  7
  9
  12
  16
  20
  25
  31
  37
  45
  53
  62
  72
  83
  94
  106
  119
  133
  147
  162
  177
  193
  210
  228
  246
  265
  284
  305
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
Cash from operations, $m
  -10
  4
  6
  9
  12
  16
  21
  27
  33
  41
  50
  59
  70
  81
  93
  106
  120
  135
  150
  165
  182
  199
  216
  235
  253
  273
  293
  314
  336
  358
  382
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -12
  -15
  -18
  -22
  -26
  -31
  -36
  -41
  -47
  -53
  -60
  -66
  -74
  -81
  -90
  -98
  -107
  -116
  -125
  -135
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -5
  -7
  -10
  -13
  -18
  -23
  -29
  -35
  -42
  -50
  -58
  -66
  -74
  -83
  -91
  -100
  -108
  -116
  -124
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -175
  -183
  -190
  -197
  -205
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -5
  -8
  -11
  -14
  -20
  -26
  -33
  -41
  -49
  -59
  -70
  -81
  -92
  -105
  -117
  -131
  -144
  -157
  -171
  -185
  -199
  -212
  -228
  -242
  -258
  -273
  -290
  -306
  -322
  -340
Free cash flow, $m
  -11
  -2
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -3
  0
  3
  7
  11
  15
  20
  25
  30
  35
  41
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  4
  13
  20
  29
  39
  52
  66
  83
  102
  123
  145
  169
  193
  217
  242
  267
  291
  315
  339
  362
  384
  406
  428
  449
  470
  491
  512
  533
  555
  577
  600
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  4
  13
  20
  29
  39
  52
  66
  83
  102
  123
  145
  169
  193
  217
  242
  267
  291
  315
  339
  362
  384
  406
  428
  449
  470
  491
  512
  533
  555
  577
  600
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -7
  12
  19
  27
  36
  48
  61
  77
  95
  115
  136
  158
  182
  206
  231
  256
  281
  306
  332
  357
  382
  407
  431
  456
  481
  506
  532
  558
  585
  612
  641
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  12
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -14
  -16
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  27
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  37
  17
  24
  32
  42
  54
  68
  84
  101
  120
  139
  160
  182
  204
  226
  249
  271
  294
  317
  339
  361
  384
  406
  429
  452
  475
  499
  523
  548
  574
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  35
  16
  21
  26
  33
  39
  46
  52
  58
  63
  66
  68
  69
  68
  66
  63
  59
  54
  49
  43
  37
  32
  27
  22
  18
  14
  11
  8
  6
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

CareDx, Inc., a molecular diagnostics company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of diagnostic surveillance solutions for transplant patients in the United States and internationally. The company’s commercialized testing solution includes the AlloMap heart transplant molecular test (AlloMap), a gene expression test that helps clinicians monitor and identify heart transplant recipients with stable graft function who have a low probability of moderate/severe acute cellular rejection. It is also developing AlloSure, a next-generation sequencing-based test to detect donor-derived cell-free DNA after transplantation. The company markets its AlloMap solution to healthcare providers through its direct sales force that targets transplant centers and their physicians, coordinators, and nurse practitioners. The company was formerly known as XDx, Inc. and changed its name to CareDx, Inc. in March 2014. CareDx, Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Brisbane, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CareDx (CDNA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.7
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 0.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -0.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -0.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 10
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 44.8%
Total Debt to Equity 55.2%
Interest Coverage -13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -22.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.1%
Return On Total Capital -28.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -75%
Return On Equity -40%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.9%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 64.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 64.6%
EBITDA Margin -42.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.6%
Operating Margin -42.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -50%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -24%
Net Profit Margin -50%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -21.5%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 66.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

CDNA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CDNA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $28 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CareDx. The default revenue input number comes from 2015 income statement of CareDx. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CDNA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CDNA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CareDx, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CareDx.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CDNA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CDNA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.4% for CareDx.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CareDx. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CDNA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CDNA are equal to 28.6%.

Life of production assets of 20 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CareDx operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CDNA is equal to -10.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $29 million for CareDx - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 19.221 million for CareDx is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CareDx at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ CareDx reports 4Q loss   [Apr-21-17 05:52PM  Associated Press]
▶ CareDx to Present New Data on AlloMap and AlloSure at ISHLT   [Apr-03-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CareDx Closes New $25 Million Debt Facility   [04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ AlloSure Featured in Journal of Applied Laboratory Medicine   [Mar-14-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CareDx, Inc. : December 8, 2016   [Dec-08-16 02:24PM  Capital Cube]
▶ CareDx to Participate in Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Nov-08-16 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CareDx to present AlloSure® data at AMP in Charlotte, NC   [Nov-03-16 04:02PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CareDx Announces First Commercial Sale of Olerup QTYPE   [Oct-24-16 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CareDx Launches Olerup QTYPE® at ASHI   [Sep-28-16 05:06PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CareDx Announces Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock   [Sep-20-16 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CareDx Reports Status of Form 10-Q   [08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CareDx Appoints Douglas Miller to Its Board of Directors   [Jul-15-16 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 9 Analyst Stocks Under $10 With Massive Upside Calls   [Jun-18-16 11:25AM  at 24/7 Wall St.]
▶ CareDx to Present at 2016 Jefferies Healthcare Conference   [May-31-16 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CareDx Completes Allenex Acquisition   [04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CareDx Announces New Chief Commercial Officer Todd Whitson   [Mar-29-16 01:04PM  GlobeNewswire]
Stock chart of CDNA Financial statements of CDNA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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