Intrinsic value of Central Garden&Pet - CENT

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$30.52

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$30.52

 
Intrinsic value

$31.53

 
Up/down potential

+3%

 
Rating

hold

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CENT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.78
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.13
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.07
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
Revenue, $m
  1,829
  1,928
  2,031
  2,139
  2,252
  2,371
  2,495
  2,625
  2,761
  2,904
  3,054
  3,211
  3,376
  3,548
  3,729
  3,919
  4,118
  4,327
  4,546
  4,776
  5,018
  5,271
  5,537
  5,816
  6,109
  6,416
  6,739
  7,078
  7,433
  7,806
  8,198
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,526
  1,606
  1,690
  1,779
  1,871
  1,968
  2,069
  2,175
  2,287
  2,403
  2,503
  2,631
  2,765
  2,906
  3,054
  3,210
  3,372
  3,543
  3,723
  3,911
  4,108
  4,315
  4,533
  4,761
  5,001
  5,252
  5,516
  5,793
  6,084
  6,389
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  263
  270
  277
  284
  291
  298
  305
  313
  321
  329
  337
  346
  354
  363
  372
  382
  391
  401
  411
  421
  432
  442
  454
  465
  476
  488
  501
  513
  526
  539
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,700
  1,789
  1,876
  1,967
  2,063
  2,162
  2,266
  2,374
  2,488
  2,608
  2,732
  2,840
  2,977
  3,119
  3,269
  3,426
  3,592
  3,763
  3,944
  4,134
  4,332
  4,540
  4,757
  4,987
  5,226
  5,477
  5,740
  6,017
  6,306
  6,610
  6,928
Operating income, $m
  129
  139
  155
  172
  190
  209
  229
  251
  273
  297
  322
  371
  399
  429
  460
  492
  527
  564
  602
  643
  686
  731
  779
  830
  883
  939
  998
  1,061
  1,127
  1,196
  1,270
EBITDA, $m
  169
  180
  197
  215
  234
  255
  276
  298
  322
  347
  373
  401
  431
  462
  495
  529
  566
  604
  645
  688
  733
  781
  831
  884
  940
  999
  1,062
  1,127
  1,197
  1,270
  1,347
Interest expense (income), $m
  33
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  74
  79
  84
  90
  95
  101
  108
  114
  121
  128
  136
  144
  152
  161
  170
  180
  190
  200
  212
Earnings before tax, $m
  70
  106
  119
  133
  148
  164
  180
  198
  216
  236
  257
  302
  325
  349
  375
  403
  432
  462
  495
  529
  565
  603
  643
  686
  731
  778
  828
  881
  937
  996
  1,058
Tax expense, $m
  24
  29
  32
  36
  40
  44
  49
  53
  58
  64
  69
  81
  88
  94
  101
  109
  117
  125
  134
  143
  153
  163
  174
  185
  197
  210
  224
  238
  253
  269
  286
Net income, $m
  45
  77
  87
  97
  108
  120
  132
  144
  158
  172
  187
  220
  237
  255
  274
  294
  315
  338
  361
  386
  412
  440
  470
  501
  534
  568
  605
  643
  684
  727
  772

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  93
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,212
  1,180
  1,243
  1,309
  1,378
  1,451
  1,527
  1,607
  1,690
  1,777
  1,869
  1,965
  2,066
  2,171
  2,282
  2,398
  2,520
  2,648
  2,782
  2,923
  3,071
  3,226
  3,389
  3,559
  3,739
  3,927
  4,124
  4,332
  4,549
  4,777
  5,017
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,119
  1,180
  1,243
  1,309
  1,378
  1,451
  1,527
  1,607
  1,690
  1,777
  1,869
  1,965
  2,066
  2,171
  2,282
  2,398
  2,520
  2,648
  2,782
  2,923
  3,071
  3,226
  3,389
  3,559
  3,739
  3,927
  4,124
  4,332
  4,549
  4,777
  5,017
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.633
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
Average production assets, $m
  165
  173
  183
  193
  203
  213
  225
  236
  249
  261
  275
  289
  304
  319
  336
  353
  371
  389
  409
  430
  452
  474
  498
  523
  550
  577
  607
  637
  669
  703
  738
Working capital, $m
  513
  443
  467
  492
  518
  545
  574
  604
  635
  668
  702
  739
  776
  816
  858
  901
  947
  995
  1,046
  1,099
  1,154
  1,212
  1,274
  1,338
  1,405
  1,476
  1,550
  1,628
  1,710
  1,795
  1,886
Total debt, $m
  395
  431
  468
  507
  548
  591
  635
  682
  731
  783
  837
  893
  953
  1,015
  1,080
  1,149
  1,220
  1,296
  1,375
  1,458
  1,545
  1,636
  1,732
  1,832
  1,938
  2,049
  2,165
  2,287
  2,415
  2,550
  2,691
Total liabilities, $m
  659
  695
  732
  771
  812
  855
  899
  946
  995
  1,047
  1,101
  1,157
  1,217
  1,279
  1,344
  1,413
  1,484
  1,560
  1,639
  1,722
  1,809
  1,900
  1,996
  2,096
  2,202
  2,313
  2,429
  2,551
  2,679
  2,814
  2,955
Total equity, $m
  553
  485
  511
  538
  567
  596
  628
  660
  695
  731
  768
  808
  849
  892
  938
  986
  1,036
  1,088
  1,144
  1,201
  1,262
  1,326
  1,393
  1,463
  1,537
  1,614
  1,695
  1,780
  1,870
  1,964
  2,062
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,212
  1,180
  1,243
  1,309
  1,379
  1,451
  1,527
  1,606
  1,690
  1,778
  1,869
  1,965
  2,066
  2,171
  2,282
  2,399
  2,520
  2,648
  2,783
  2,923
  3,071
  3,226
  3,389
  3,559
  3,739
  3,927
  4,124
  4,331
  4,549
  4,778
  5,017
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.714
  0.890
  0.920
  0.940
  0.970
  0.990
  1.010
  1.030
  1.050
  1.070
  1.090
  1.110
  1.120
  1.140
  1.150
  1.170
  1.180
  1.190
  1.200
  1.210
  1.220
  1.230
  1.240
  1.250
  1.260
  1.270
  1.280
  1.280
  1.290
  1.300
  1.310
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  45
  77
  87
  97
  108
  120
  132
  144
  158
  172
  187
  220
  237
  255
  274
  294
  315
  338
  361
  386
  412
  440
  470
  501
  534
  568
  605
  643
  684
  727
  772
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  50
  52
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
Funds from operations, $m
  188
  119
  129
  140
  152
  165
  178
  192
  207
  223
  239
  250
  269
  288
  309
  331
  354
  378
  404
  431
  459
  490
  522
  555
  591
  628
  668
  710
  754
  800
  849
Change in working capital, $m
  37
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
Cash from operations, $m
  151
  185
  105
  116
  126
  138
  150
  162
  176
  190
  205
  214
  231
  249
  267
  287
  308
  330
  353
  378
  404
  431
  460
  491
  523
  558
  594
  632
  672
  714
  759
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
New CAPEX, $m
  -28
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -91
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -108
Free cash flow, $m
  60
  159
  78
  87
  96
  106
  116
  127
  139
  151
  164
  172
  186
  201
  218
  235
  253
  273
  293
  315
  337
  362
  387
  414
  443
  473
  504
  538
  574
  611
  651
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  135
  141
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -14
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  135
  141
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  45
  195
  115
  126
  137
  149
  161
  174
  188
  203
  218
  228
  245
  264
  283
  303
  325
  348
  372
  398
  424
  453
  483
  515
  548
  583
  621
  660
  702
  746
  792
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -48
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  93
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  263
  89
  99
  108
  119
  130
  141
  154
  167
  180
  189
  204
  220
  238
  256
  275
  295
  317
  340
  364
  389
  416
  444
  474
  506
  540
  575
  612
  652
  693
Discount rate, %
 
  5.60
  5.88
  6.17
  6.48
  6.81
  7.15
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.69
  9.12
  9.58
  10.06
  10.56
  11.09
  11.64
  12.22
  12.84
  13.48
  14.15
  14.86
  15.60
  16.38
  17.20
  18.06
  18.96
  19.91
  20.91
  21.95
  23.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  249
  80
  82
  84
  85
  86
  85
  84
  81
  78
  72
  68
  63
  58
  53
  47
  42
  36
  31
  26
  21
  17
  14
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Central Garden & Pet Company, together with its subsidiaries, produces and markets products for the pet, and lawn and garden supplies industries in the United States. It operates through two segments, Pet and Garden. The Pet segment supplies products for dogs and cats comprising edible bones, edible and non-edible chews, rawhide, dog and cat food and treats, toys, pet carriers, grooming supplies, and other accessories; and food, cages and habitats, toys, chews, and related accessories for birds, small animals, and specialty pets. It also offers animal and household health, and insect control products; aquariums, furniture and lighting fixtures, pumps, filters, water conditioners, food and supplements, and information and knowledge resources for fish, reptiles, and other aquarium-based pets; and products for horses and livestock. This segment sells its products to independent pet distributors, retail chains, grocery stores, mass merchants, and bookstores under the Adams, Aqueon, Avoderm, Bio Spot Active Care, Cadet, Farnam, Four Paws, Kaytee, Nylabone, Pinnacle, TFH, Zilla, Altosid, Comfort Zone, Coralife, Interpet, Kent Marine, Pet Select, Super Pet, and Zodiac brands. The Garden segment provides grass seeds; wild bird feed, bird feeders, insect control products, bird houses, and other birding accessories; weed, grass, ant and other herbicide, insecticide, and pesticide products; and decorative outdoor lifestyle products, such as pottery, trellises, and other wood products. This segment sells its products to retail chains, independent garden distributors, grocery stores, nurseries, and garden supply retailers under the AMDRO, Ironite, Pennington, Sevin, Lilly Miller, Over-N-Out, Smart Seed, and The Rebels brands. The company is also involved in the distribution of third party pet, and lawn and garden products. Central Garden & Pet Company was founded in 1955 and is based in Walnut Creek, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Central Garden&Pet (CENT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 34.6
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 27.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 71.4%
Total Debt to Equity 71.4%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Return On Total Capital 4.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Return On Equity 8.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Asset Turnover 1.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.4%
EBITDA Margin 7.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Operating Margin 7.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Net Profit Margin 2.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Effective Tax Rate 34.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

CENT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CENT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1829 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Central Garden&Pet. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Central Garden&Pet. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CENT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.6%, whose default value for CENT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Central Garden&Pet, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Central Garden&Pet.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CENT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 79.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $257 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CENT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.3% for Central Garden&Pet.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Central Garden&Pet. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CENT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CENT are equal to 9%.

Life of production assets of 9.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Central Garden&Pet operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CENT is equal to 23%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $553 million for Central Garden&Pet - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 50.131 million for Central Garden&Pet is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Central Garden&Pet at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Central Garden & Pet Announces Executive Appointment   [May-22-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Central Garden tops Street 2Q forecasts   [May-03-17 05:16PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Central Garden & Pet Buys K&H Manufacturing   [May-01-17 01:21PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ 3 Stocks That Could Have Doubled Your Money   [Apr-27-17 12:12PM  Motley Fool]
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Stock chart of CENT Financial statements of CENT Annual reports of CENT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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