Intrinsic value of Century Aluminum - CENX

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$13.62

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$13.62

 
Intrinsic value

$2.16

 
Up/down potential

-84%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CENX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -32.36
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,319
  1,345
  1,376
  1,412
  1,451
  1,495
  1,544
  1,596
  1,653
  1,714
  1,780
  1,851
  1,926
  2,006
  2,091
  2,181
  2,277
  2,378
  2,485
  2,598
  2,717
  2,843
  2,976
  3,116
  3,263
  3,419
  3,582
  3,754
  3,936
  4,126
  4,327
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  930
  951
  975
  1,003
  1,033
  1,067
  1,103
  1,142
  1,185
  1,230
  1,279
  1,331
  1,386
  1,445
  1,507
  1,573
  1,643
  1,717
  1,795
  1,877
  1,965
  2,056
  2,153
  2,255
  2,362
  2,475
  2,594
  2,720
  2,851
  2,990
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  674
  691
  709
  726
  744
  763
  782
  802
  822
  842
  863
  885
  907
  930
  953
  977
  1,001
  1,026
  1,052
  1,078
  1,105
  1,133
  1,161
  1,190
  1,220
  1,250
  1,282
  1,314
  1,347
  1,380
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,553
  1,604
  1,642
  1,684
  1,729
  1,777
  1,830
  1,885
  1,944
  2,007
  2,072
  2,142
  2,216
  2,293
  2,375
  2,460
  2,550
  2,644
  2,743
  2,847
  2,955
  3,070
  3,189
  3,314
  3,445
  3,582
  3,725
  3,876
  4,034
  4,198
  4,370
Operating income, $m
  -234
  -259
  -266
  -272
  -278
  -282
  -286
  -289
  -291
  -292
  -292
  -291
  -290
  -287
  -284
  -279
  -273
  -267
  -258
  -249
  -239
  -227
  -213
  -198
  -182
  -164
  -143
  -122
  -98
  -72
  -43
EBITDA, $m
  -149
  -172
  -177
  -182
  -184
  -186
  -187
  -186
  -184
  -182
  -178
  -172
  -166
  -158
  -149
  -139
  -127
  -113
  -99
  -82
  -64
  -44
  -22
  2
  28
  57
  87
  120
  156
  194
  235
Interest expense (income), $m
  20
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  44
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  68
  73
  78
  83
  89
  95
  102
  108
  115
  123
  131
  139
  148
Earnings before tax, $m
  -251
  -278
  -287
  -294
  -301
  -308
  -313
  -318
  -323
  -327
  -330
  -332
  -333
  -334
  -334
  -334
  -332
  -330
  -326
  -322
  -316
  -310
  -302
  -293
  -283
  -272
  -259
  -244
  -228
  -211
  -191
Tax expense, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -252
  -278
  -287
  -294
  -301
  -308
  -313
  -318
  -323
  -327
  -330
  -332
  -333
  -334
  -334
  -334
  -332
  -330
  -326
  -322
  -316
  -310
  -302
  -293
  -283
  -272
  -259
  -244
  -228
  -211
  -191

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  132
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,540
  1,436
  1,469
  1,507
  1,549
  1,596
  1,647
  1,704
  1,764
  1,830
  1,900
  1,975
  2,055
  2,141
  2,231
  2,328
  2,430
  2,538
  2,652
  2,772
  2,900
  3,034
  3,176
  3,325
  3,483
  3,649
  3,823
  4,007
  4,200
  4,404
  4,618
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,408
  1,436
  1,469
  1,507
  1,549
  1,596
  1,647
  1,704
  1,764
  1,830
  1,900
  1,975
  2,055
  2,141
  2,231
  2,328
  2,430
  2,538
  2,652
  2,772
  2,900
  3,034
  3,176
  3,325
  3,483
  3,649
  3,823
  4,007
  4,200
  4,404
  4,618
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
Average production assets, $m
  1,130
  1,152
  1,178
  1,208
  1,242
  1,280
  1,321
  1,366
  1,415
  1,468
  1,524
  1,584
  1,648
  1,717
  1,790
  1,867
  1,949
  2,035
  2,127
  2,224
  2,326
  2,434
  2,547
  2,667
  2,793
  2,926
  3,066
  3,214
  3,369
  3,532
  3,704
Working capital, $m
  262
  141
  145
  148
  152
  157
  162
  168
  174
  180
  187
  194
  202
  211
  220
  229
  239
  250
  261
  273
  285
  299
  312
  327
  343
  359
  376
  394
  413
  433
  454
Total debt, $m
  256
  263
  281
  302
  325
  351
  379
  410
  443
  479
  518
  559
  603
  650
  700
  753
  809
  869
  931
  998
  1,068
  1,142
  1,220
  1,302
  1,389
  1,480
  1,576
  1,677
  1,783
  1,895
  2,013
Total liabilities, $m
  784
  790
  808
  829
  852
  878
  906
  937
  970
  1,006
  1,045
  1,086
  1,130
  1,177
  1,227
  1,280
  1,336
  1,396
  1,458
  1,525
  1,595
  1,669
  1,747
  1,829
  1,916
  2,007
  2,103
  2,204
  2,310
  2,422
  2,540
Total equity, $m
  757
  646
  661
  678
  697
  718
  741
  767
  794
  823
  855
  889
  925
  963
  1,004
  1,047
  1,093
  1,142
  1,193
  1,248
  1,305
  1,365
  1,429
  1,496
  1,567
  1,642
  1,720
  1,803
  1,890
  1,982
  2,078
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,541
  1,436
  1,469
  1,507
  1,549
  1,596
  1,647
  1,704
  1,764
  1,829
  1,900
  1,975
  2,055
  2,140
  2,231
  2,327
  2,429
  2,538
  2,651
  2,773
  2,900
  3,034
  3,176
  3,325
  3,483
  3,649
  3,823
  4,007
  4,200
  4,404
  4,618
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.338
  0.410
  0.420
  0.440
  0.470
  0.490
  0.510
  0.530
  0.560
  0.580
  0.610
  0.630
  0.650
  0.680
  0.700
  0.720
  0.740
  0.760
  0.780
  0.800
  0.820
  0.840
  0.850
  0.870
  0.890
  0.900
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.960
  0.970
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.444
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -252
  -278
  -287
  -294
  -301
  -308
  -313
  -318
  -323
  -327
  -330
  -332
  -333
  -334
  -334
  -334
  -332
  -330
  -326
  -322
  -316
  -310
  -302
  -293
  -283
  -272
  -259
  -244
  -228
  -211
  -191
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  85
  87
  89
  91
  93
  96
  99
  103
  106
  110
  115
  119
  124
  129
  135
  140
  147
  153
  160
  167
  175
  183
  192
  201
  210
  220
  231
  242
  253
  266
  278
Funds from operations, $m
  84
  -191
  -198
  -203
  -208
  -211
  -214
  -216
  -216
  -216
  -215
  -213
  -210
  -205
  -200
  -193
  -186
  -177
  -166
  -155
  -142
  -127
  -111
  -93
  -73
  -52
  -28
  -3
  25
  55
  87
Change in working capital, $m
  46
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Cash from operations, $m
  38
  -297
  -201
  -207
  -212
  -216
  -219
  -221
  -222
  -223
  -222
  -220
  -217
  -214
  -209
  -203
  -196
  -187
  -178
  -167
  -154
  -140
  -125
  -108
  -89
  -68
  -46
  -21
  6
  35
  66
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -85
  -87
  -89
  -91
  -93
  -96
  -99
  -103
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -140
  -147
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -175
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -210
  -220
  -231
  -242
  -253
  -266
New CAPEX, $m
  -22
  -22
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -172
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -21
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -212
  -222
  -234
  -245
  -257
  -269
  -283
  -297
  -312
  -327
  -343
  -360
  -378
  -397
  -416
  -438
Free cash flow, $m
  17
  -404
  -314
  -326
  -337
  -347
  -357
  -366
  -374
  -382
  -389
  -395
  -401
  -406
  -411
  -415
  -418
  -420
  -422
  -423
  -423
  -423
  -421
  -419
  -416
  -411
  -406
  -399
  -391
  -382
  -371
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  15
  18
  21
  23
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  278
  311
  322
  333
  342
  352
  360
  368
  375
  382
  388
  393
  398
  402
  405
  408
  410
  411
  411
  411
  409
  407
  404
  400
  395
  388
  380
  371
  361
  349
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  293
  329
  343
  356
  368
  380
  391
  401
  411
  421
  429
  437
  445
  452
  458
  464
  469
  474
  477
  481
  483
  485
  486
  487
  486
  484
  481
  477
  473
  467
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  17
  -389
  -296
  -305
  -314
  -321
  -328
  -335
  -340
  -346
  -350
  -354
  -357
  -359
  -361
  -362
  -362
  -361
  -359
  -357
  -353
  -349
  -343
  -337
  -329
  -320
  -310
  -298
  -284
  -270
  -253
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  252
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  124
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  6.70
  7.04
  7.39
  7.76
  8.14
  8.55
  8.98
  9.43
  9.90
  10.39
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.63
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.12
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
  21.61
  22.69
  23.82
  25.01
  26.26
  27.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  78.2
  59.9
  45.7
  34.8
  26.6
  20.3
  15.5
  11.9
  9.1
  7.0
  5.5
  4.3
  3.4
  2.7
  2.1
  1.7
  1.4
  1.1
  0.9
  0.8
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4
  0.4
  0.3
  0.3
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2

Century Aluminum Company, together with its subsidiaries, produces primary aluminum in the United States and Iceland. It produces standard grade and value-added primary aluminum products; and carbon products, such as anodes and cathodes. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Century Aluminum (CENX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4.7
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 31.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 74.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -32.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -60%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -14.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 17
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 32.8%
Total Debt to Equity 33.8%
Interest Coverage -12
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -14.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.8%
Return On Total Capital -22.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.7%
Return On Equity -28.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.4%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin -0.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
EBITDA Margin -11.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Operating Margin -17.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -19%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.6%
Net Profit Margin -19.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.2%
Effective Tax Rate -1.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

CENX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CENX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1319 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Century Aluminum. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Century Aluminum. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CENX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.7%, whose default value for CENX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Century Aluminum, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Century Aluminum.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CENX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 69.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $658 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CENX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.8% for Century Aluminum.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Century Aluminum. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CENX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CENX are equal to 85.6%.

Life of production assets of 13.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Century Aluminum operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CENX is equal to 10.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $757 million for Century Aluminum - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 87.47 million for Century Aluminum is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Century Aluminum at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Century reports 1Q loss   [05:10PM  Associated Press]
▶ Analysts View on Norsk Hydros 1Q17 Earnings   [Apr-11-17 11:05AM  Market Realist]
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▶ [$$] Buy Alcoa Before It Gets Bought   [Apr-10-17 01:00PM  Barrons.com]
▶ Can Century Aluminum Continue Its Rise?   [Mar-23-17 10:36AM  Market Realist]
▶ How Are Analysts Rating Aluminum Stocks in 1Q17?   [Mar-21-17 05:03PM  Market Realist]
▶ Analyzing Aluminum Producers 4Q16 Cash Flows   [11:04AM  Market Realist]
▶ Aluminum Stocks Surge on Reports of a Chinese Output Cut   [Mar-01-17 04:09PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Is Century Aluminum's 76% Stock Surge Deserved?   [Jan-29-17 07:50PM  at Investopedia]
▶ Assessing Century Aluminum After 28% One-Week Rise   [Jan-16-17 12:02PM  at Investopedia]
▶ Why Century Aluminum Stock Surged 15% Thursday   [07:38AM  at Investopedia]
▶ Why Century Aluminum Co's Shares Popped 16% Today   [Jan-12-17 12:24PM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of CENX Financial statements of CENX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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