Intrinsic value of Cerus - CERS

Previous Close

$2.50

  Intrinsic Value

$0.14

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-94%

  Value-price divergence*

+102%

Previous close

$2.50

 
Intrinsic value

$0.14

 
Up/down potential

-94%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+102%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CERS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  14.71
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  127
  133
  140
  147
  154
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  56
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  65
  67
  69
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  92
  95
  97
  99
  102
  105
  107
  110
  113
  115
Total operating expenses, $m
  101
  104
  107
  109
  113
  115
  119
  122
  126
  130
  133
  138
  142
  147
  152
  158
  163
  169
  174
  180
  187
  193
  201
  208
  215
  224
  232
  240
  250
  260
  269
Operating income, $m
  -61
  -65
  -66
  -68
  -69
  -71
  -73
  -75
  -77
  -79
  -81
  -83
  -85
  -88
  -90
  -93
  -95
  -98
  -101
  -103
  -106
  -109
  -112
  -116
  -119
  -122
  -126
  -130
  -133
  -137
  -141
EBITDA, $m
  -59
  -64
  -66
  -67
  -69
  -71
  -73
  -75
  -77
  -79
  -81
  -83
  -85
  -87
  -90
  -92
  -95
  -97
  -100
  -103
  -106
  -109
  -112
  -115
  -118
  -122
  -125
  -129
  -133
  -136
  -140
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
Earnings before tax, $m
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -82
  -85
  -87
  -89
  -92
  -94
  -97
  -100
  -103
  -106
  -109
  -112
  -115
  -119
  -122
  -126
  -130
  -134
  -138
  -142
  -146
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -82
  -85
  -87
  -89
  -92
  -94
  -97
  -100
  -103
  -106
  -109
  -112
  -115
  -119
  -122
  -126
  -130
  -134
  -138
  -142
  -146

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  72
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  103
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
  142
  148
  156
  163
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  31
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
  142
  148
  156
  163
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.258
  0.784
  0.788
  0.792
  0.782
  0.786
  0.793
  0.783
  0.790
  0.785
  0.791
  0.786
  0.781
  0.776
  0.785
  0.780
  0.779
  0.778
  0.777
  0.786
  0.784
  0.785
  0.786
  0.780
  0.780
  0.783
  0.785
  0.782
  0.784
  0.782
  0.785
Average production assets, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
Working capital, $m
  67
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
Total debt, $m
  19
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  73
  77
  82
  87
  93
  99
Total liabilities, $m
  46
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
Total equity, $m
  58
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  104
  51
  52
  54
  55
  56
  58
  60
  63
  64
  67
  69
  72
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  156
  164
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.328
  1.070
  1.110
  1.170
  1.220
  1.280
  1.340
  1.410
  1.470
  1.530
  1.600
  1.660
  1.720
  1.780
  1.840
  1.900
  1.950
  2.010
  2.060
  2.110
  2.160
  2.210
  2.260
  2.300
  2.340
  2.380
  2.420
  2.460
  2.500
  2.530
  2.560
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.452
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -82
  -85
  -87
  -89
  -92
  -94
  -97
  -100
  -103
  -106
  -109
  -112
  -115
  -119
  -122
  -126
  -130
  -134
  -138
  -142
  -146
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Funds from operations, $m
  -51
  -65
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -82
  -84
  -87
  -89
  -91
  -94
  -97
  -99
  -102
  -105
  -108
  -112
  -115
  -118
  -122
  -125
  -129
  -133
  -137
  -141
  -145
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  -54
  -65
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -82
  -84
  -87
  -89
  -92
  -94
  -97
  -100
  -103
  -105
  -109
  -112
  -115
  -118
  -122
  -125
  -129
  -133
  -137
  -141
  -145
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -20
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Free cash flow, $m
  -74
  -65
  -67
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -82
  -85
  -87
  -90
  -92
  -95
  -97
  -100
  -103
  -106
  -109
  -112
  -116
  -119
  -123
  -126
  -130
  -134
  -138
  -142
  -147
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  25
  65
  67
  69
  71
  72
  74
  76
  79
  81
  83
  85
  88
  90
  93
  95
  98
  101
  104
  107
  110
  113
  117
  120
  124
  127
  131
  135
  139
  143
  148
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  25
  66
  68
  70
  72
  73
  75
  78
  81
  83
  85
  87
  90
  92
  95
  98
  101
  104
  107
  110
  113
  117
  121
  124
  128
  131
  136
  140
  144
  148
  154
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -49
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  37
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -71
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -79
  -81
  -83
  -85
  -88
  -90
  -93
  -95
  -98
  -101
  -104
  -107
  -110
  -113
  -117
  -120
  -124
  -127
  -131
  -135
  -139
  -143
  -148
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  46
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -18
  -66
  -67
  -69
  -71
  -73
  -75
  -76
  -78
  -81
  -83
  -85
  -87
  -90
  -92
  -95
  -97
  -100
  -103
  -106
  -109
  -112
  -115
  -118
  -122
  -125
  -129
  -133
  -137
  -141
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -17
  -60
  -59
  -57
  -55
  -53
  -50
  -48
  -45
  -42
  -39
  -36
  -33
  -30
  -27
  -24
  -21
  -18
  -16
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  44.0
  19.3
  8.5
  3.7
  1.6
  0.7
  0.3
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Cerus Corporation, a biomedical products company, focuses on developing and commercializing the INTERCEPT Blood System to enhance blood safety. Its INTERCEPT Blood System is based on its proprietary technology for controlling biological replication; and targets and inactivates blood-borne pathogens, including viruses, bacteria, and parasites, as well as harmful white blood cells, while preserving the therapeutic properties of platelet, plasma, and red blood cell transfusion products. The company’s INTERCEPT Blood System for platelets and plasma is designed to inactivate blood-borne pathogens in platelets and plasma donated for transfusion; and INTERCEPT Blood System for red blood cells that inactivates blood-borne pathogens in red blood cells donated for transfusion. It markets platelet and plasma systems through its direct sales force and distributors in the United States, the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Middle East, Latin America, Europe, and internationally. Cerus Corporation was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Concord, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cerus (CERS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4.1
Price to Sales 6.6
Price to Book 4.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -4.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -4.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 14.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 10
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 20.7%
Total Debt to Equity 32.8%
Interest Coverage -62
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -51.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -49%
Return On Total Capital -65.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -70.8%
Return On Equity -82.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -85.3%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 48.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.9%
EBITDA Margin -153.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -141.4%
Operating Margin -159%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -154.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -161.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -148.8%
Net Profit Margin -161.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -144.9%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

CERS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CERS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $39 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cerus. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Cerus. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CERS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CERS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cerus, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cerus.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CERS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 120.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $55 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CERS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.1% for Cerus.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cerus. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CERS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CERS are equal to 6.4%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cerus operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CERS is equal to 5.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $58 million for Cerus - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 101.529 million for Cerus is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cerus at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Cerus reports 2Q loss   [Aug-04-17 02:36AM  Associated Press]
▶ Cerus Corporation Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-03-17 04:02PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cerus Corp. : July 11, 2017   [Jul-11-17 02:17PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Here's Why Cerus Corporation Rose as Much as 17.4% Today   [Jun-07-17 01:26PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Here's Why Cerus Corporation Rose as Much as 16.3% Today   [May-26-17 04:55PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Here's Why Cerus Corporation Stock Is Tanking Today   [May-23-17 03:42PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Biotech Movers: Cerus, Alexion, NantKwest   [09:29AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Cerus Provides U.S. Business Update   [08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cerus Corp. : May 22, 2017   [May-22-17 01:27PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cerus Corp. : May 11, 2017   [May-11-17 04:20PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Cerus reports 1Q loss   [May-03-17 05:13PM  Associated Press]
▶ Cerus Corp. Value Analysis (NASDAQ:CERS) : April 24, 2017   [Apr-24-17 03:13PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Cerus to Release First Quarter 2017 Results on May 3, 2017   [Apr-19-17 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cerus Corp. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 04:29PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Cerus reports 4Q loss   [Mar-07-17 04:44PM  Associated Press]
▶ Do Hedge Funds Love Cerus Corporation (CERS)?   [Dec-10-16 02:42PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Why Cerus Corporation is Soaring Today   [12:18PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Buy the Dip During Dog Days   [Aug-10-16 11:59AM  at Investopedia]
▶ Watch these biotechs as the Zika virus moves to the U.S.   [Aug-06-16 12:11PM  at MarketWatch]
Stock chart of CERS Financial statements of CERS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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