Intrinsic value of Cemtrex - CETX

Previous Close

$2.95

  Intrinsic Value

$49.22

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$2.95

 
Intrinsic value

$49.22

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CETX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  64.91
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  94
  150
  232
  348
  504
  711
  978
  1,313
  1,724
  2,218
  2,801
  3,479
  4,253
  5,127
  6,100
  7,172
  8,343
  9,610
  10,972
  12,426
  13,971
  15,604
  17,323
  19,127
  21,016
  22,989
  25,046
  27,189
  29,418
  31,735
  34,144
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  142
  220
  329
  477
  673
  925
  1,242
  1,631
  2,098
  2,650
  3,291
  4,023
  4,849
  5,770
  6,784
  7,892
  9,091
  10,379
  11,755
  13,216
  14,760
  16,386
  18,093
  19,880
  21,746
  23,692
  25,719
  27,827
  30,019
  32,298
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  89
  142
  220
  329
  477
  673
  925
  1,242
  1,631
  2,098
  2,650
  3,291
  4,023
  4,849
  5,770
  6,784
  7,892
  9,091
  10,379
  11,755
  13,216
  14,760
  16,386
  18,093
  19,880
  21,746
  23,692
  25,719
  27,827
  30,019
  32,298
Operating income, $m
  5
  8
  12
  19
  27
  38
  53
  71
  93
  120
  151
  188
  230
  277
  330
  388
  451
  520
  593
  672
  755
  844
  937
  1,034
  1,136
  1,243
  1,354
  1,470
  1,590
  1,716
  1,846
EBITDA, $m
  7
  8
  13
  19
  27
  38
  53
  71
  93
  120
  151
  188
  230
  277
  330
  388
  451
  520
  593
  672
  755
  844
  937
  1,034
  1,136
  1,243
  1,354
  1,470
  1,590
  1,716
  1,846
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  2
  4
  7
  10
  15
  21
  29
  38
  49
  63
  78
  96
  116
  138
  162
  189
  218
  249
  282
  317
  354
  394
  435
  478
  523
  570
  618
  669
  722
Earnings before tax, $m
  6
  7
  10
  15
  20
  28
  38
  50
  64
  82
  102
  125
  152
  181
  214
  250
  289
  331
  375
  423
  473
  526
  582
  640
  701
  765
  831
  900
  972
  1,047
  1,124
Tax expense, $m
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  13
  17
  22
  28
  34
  41
  49
  58
  67
  78
  89
  101
  114
  128
  142
  157
  173
  189
  207
  224
  243
  262
  283
  303
Net income, $m
  5
  5
  7
  11
  15
  20
  28
  36
  47
  60
  74
  92
  111
  132
  156
  182
  211
  241
  274
  309
  346
  384
  425
  468
  512
  559
  607
  657
  710
  764
  820

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  56
  80
  124
  185
  268
  378
  520
  698
  917
  1,180
  1,490
  1,850
  2,262
  2,727
  3,244
  3,815
  4,438
  5,112
  5,836
  6,610
  7,431
  8,300
  9,214
  10,174
  11,179
  12,228
  13,322
  14,462
  15,648
  16,880
  18,162
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  50
  80
  124
  185
  268
  378
  520
  698
  917
  1,180
  1,490
  1,850
  2,262
  2,727
  3,244
  3,815
  4,438
  5,112
  5,836
  6,610
  7,431
  8,300
  9,214
  10,174
  11,179
  12,228
  13,322
  14,462
  15,648
  16,880
  18,162
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.880
  1.875
  1.871
  1.881
  1.881
  1.881
  1.881
  1.881
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
  1.881
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  12
  21
  32
  48
  70
  98
  135
  181
  238
  306
  387
  480
  587
  707
  842
  990
  1,151
  1,326
  1,514
  1,715
  1,928
  2,153
  2,391
  2,640
  2,900
  3,172
  3,456
  3,752
  4,060
  4,379
  4,712
Total debt, $m
  22
  36
  66
  108
  164
  239
  336
  457
  605
  784
  995
  1,240
  1,520
  1,836
  2,188
  2,576
  3,000
  3,458
  3,951
  4,477
  5,035
  5,626
  6,248
  6,900
  7,584
  8,297
  9,041
  9,816
  10,622
  11,461
  12,332
Total liabilities, $m
  40
  54
  84
  126
  182
  257
  354
  475
  623
  802
  1,013
  1,258
  1,538
  1,854
  2,206
  2,594
  3,018
  3,476
  3,969
  4,495
  5,053
  5,644
  6,266
  6,918
  7,602
  8,315
  9,059
  9,834
  10,640
  11,479
  12,350
Total equity, $m
  16
  26
  40
  59
  86
  121
  166
  223
  293
  378
  477
  592
  724
  873
  1,038
  1,221
  1,420
  1,636
  1,868
  2,115
  2,378
  2,656
  2,949
  3,256
  3,577
  3,913
  4,263
  4,628
  5,007
  5,402
  5,812
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  56
  80
  124
  185
  268
  378
  520
  698
  916
  1,180
  1,490
  1,850
  2,262
  2,727
  3,244
  3,815
  4,438
  5,112
  5,837
  6,610
  7,431
  8,300
  9,215
  10,174
  11,179
  12,228
  13,322
  14,462
  15,647
  16,881
  18,162
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.375
  1.420
  1.670
  1.820
  1.920
  1.980
  2.020
  2.040
  2.060
  2.080
  2.090
  2.090
  2.100
  2.100
  2.110
  2.110
  2.110
  2.110
  2.120
  2.120
  2.120
  2.120
  2.120
  2.120
  2.120
  2.120
  2.120
  2.120
  2.120
  2.120
  2.120
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  5
  5
  7
  11
  15
  20
  28
  36
  47
  60
  74
  92
  111
  132
  156
  182
  211
  241
  274
  309
  346
  384
  425
  468
  512
  559
  607
  657
  710
  764
  820
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  6
  5
  8
  11
  15
  21
  28
  36
  47
  60
  75
  92
  111
  132
  156
  182
  211
  241
  274
  309
  346
  384
  425
  468
  512
  559
  607
  657
  710
  764
  820
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  8
  11
  16
  22
  29
  37
  46
  57
  68
  81
  93
  107
  121
  134
  148
  162
  175
  188
  201
  213
  225
  237
  249
  261
  272
  284
  296
  308
  320
  332
Cash from operations, $m
  8
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -2
  4
  12
  22
  34
  49
  66
  86
  108
  132
  159
  188
  219
  251
  286
  323
  362
  402
  444
  488
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -17
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  -9
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -2
  4
  12
  22
  34
  49
  66
  86
  108
  132
  159
  188
  219
  251
  286
  323
  362
  402
  444
  488
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  14
  20
  30
  42
  57
  75
  96
  121
  149
  179
  211
  245
  280
  316
  352
  388
  423
  458
  493
  526
  559
  591
  622
  653
  683
  714
  744
  775
  806
  838
  871
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  4
  7
  9
  12
  15
  18
  21
  23
  25
  25
  24
  21
  16
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  14
  24
  37
  51
  69
  90
  114
  142
  172
  204
  236
  269
  301
  332
  361
  388
  423
  458
  493
  526
  559
  591
  622
  653
  683
  714
  744
  775
  806
  838
  871
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  5
  22
  32
  45
  62
  82
  105
  132
  162
  195
  230
  267
  305
  344
  383
  422
  473
  525
  579
  634
  691
  750
  810
  871
  935
  1,000
  1,067
  1,136
  1,208
  1,282
  1,359
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -9
  -10
  -14
  -20
  -27
  -35
  -45
  -57
  -70
  -84
  -99
  -115
  -132
  -149
  -166
  -183
  -199
  -216
  -232
  -248
  -263
  -278
  -293
  -307
  -321
  -336
  -350
  -365
  -379
  -394
  -410
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  13
  18
  26
  35
  46
  60
  75
  92
  111
  131
  152
  173
  195
  218
  240
  273
  309
  347
  387
  428
  472
  517
  564
  613
  664
  717
  772
  829
  888
  949
Discount rate, %
 
  4.90
  5.15
  5.40
  5.67
  5.96
  6.25
  6.57
  6.89
  7.24
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.19
  10.70
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  12
  17
  22
  28
  35
  42
  48
  54
  59
  63
  65
  66
  65
  63
  60
  58
  55
  51
  46
  41
  36
  31
  26
  21
  17
  13
  10
  8
  5
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  87.4
  77.2
  69.1
  62.6
  57.5
  53.4
  50.2
  47.6
  45.7
  44.1
  43.0
  42.3
  41.8
  41.5
  41.5
  41.5
  41.5
  41.5
  41.5
  41.5
  41.5
  41.5
  41.5
  41.5
  41.5
  41.5
  41.5
  41.5
  41.5
  41.5

Cemtrex, Inc. is a diversified technology company, which provides solutions to industrial and manufacturing needs. The Company provides manufacturing services of electronic system assemblies; provides broad-based industrial services, instruments and emission monitors for industrial processes, and provides industrial air filtration and environmental control systems. It operates through two segments: Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) segment and the Industrial Products & Services (IPS) segment. The Company, through its electronics manufacturing services (EMS) group, provides end to end electronic manufacturing services, which include product design and sustaining engineering services, printed circuit board assembly and production, cabling and wire harnessing, systems integration, testing services, and assembled electronic products. The Industrial Products & Services segment provides single-source services for in plant equipment erection, relocation and maintenance.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cemtrex (CETX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 5.6
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 64.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 93.8%
Total Debt to Equity 137.5%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 14.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.3%
Return On Total Capital 18.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.2%
Return On Equity 43.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 72.7%
Asset Turnover 2.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.8%
EBITDA Margin 9.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Operating Margin 5.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Net Profit Margin 5.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Effective Tax Rate 16.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

CETX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CETX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $94 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cemtrex. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Cemtrex. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CETX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.9%, whose default value for CETX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cemtrex, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cemtrex.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CETX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CETX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.3% for Cemtrex.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cemtrex. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CETX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CETX are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 0.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cemtrex operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CETX is equal to 13.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $16 million for Cemtrex - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 10.484 million for Cemtrex is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cemtrex at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Cemtrex, Inc. : October 17, 2017   [Oct-17-17 09:38AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Cemtrex Named to Crains New York Business Fast 50 Companies   [Oct-10-17 08:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cemtrex, Inc. : September 28, 2017   [Sep-28-17 10:11AM  Capital Cube]
▶ /C O R R E C T I O N -- Cemtrex, Inc./   [Sep-15-17 11:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cemtrex, Inc. : September 7, 2017   [Sep-07-17 12:46PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cemtrex, Inc. : August 7, 2017   [Aug-07-17 04:23PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cemtrex, Inc. : July 3, 2017   [Jul-03-17 03:00PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Cemtrex Added to Russell Microcap Index   [Jun-26-17 08:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cemtrex, Inc. : June 20, 2017   [Jun-20-17 02:48PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cemtrex, Inc. : June 9, 2017   [Jun-09-17 01:21PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Small businesses in clean energy sector still hope for best   [Jun-07-17 03:12PM  Associated Press]
▶ Cemtrex Files Shelf Registration Statement   [Jun-05-17 04:37PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cemtrex, Inc. : May 30, 2017   [May-30-17 12:20PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Investor Network: Cemtrex, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [May-11-17 09:45AM  Accesswire]
Financial statements of CETX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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