Intrinsic value of CEVA - CEVA

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$35.45

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$35.45

 
Intrinsic value

$91.67

 
Up/down potential

+159%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CEVA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  21.67
  31.30
  28.67
  26.30
  24.17
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.25
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.41
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
  7.33
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
Revenue, $m
  73
  96
  123
  156
  193
  236
  285
  339
  399
  464
  534
  610
  691
  777
  867
  963
  1,063
  1,168
  1,278
  1,392
  1,511
  1,635
  1,764
  1,898
  2,037
  2,182
  2,332
  2,488
  2,650
  2,819
  2,995
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  35
  44
  54
  67
  80
  96
  113
  132
  153
  175
  195
  221
  248
  277
  308
  340
  373
  408
  445
  483
  523
  564
  607
  651
  697
  745
  795
  847
  901
  957
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  32
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  50
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  57
  59
  60
  62
  63
  65
Total operating expenses, $m
  58
  67
  77
  87
  101
  115
  132
  150
  170
  192
  215
  236
  263
  291
  321
  353
  386
  420
  456
  495
  534
  575
  617
  662
  707
  754
  804
  855
  909
  964
  1,022
Operating income, $m
  14
  29
  47
  68
  93
  121
  153
  189
  229
  272
  319
  374
  428
  486
  546
  610
  677
  748
  821
  898
  977
  1,060
  1,147
  1,237
  1,330
  1,427
  1,528
  1,632
  1,741
  1,855
  1,973
EBITDA, $m
  16
  34
  52
  73
  98
  127
  159
  195
  235
  279
  326
  377
  431
  489
  550
  614
  682
  752
  826
  903
  983
  1,067
  1,154
  1,244
  1,338
  1,436
  1,537
  1,642
  1,752
  1,866
  1,985
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  38
  41
Earnings before tax, $m
  16
  29
  46
  67
  91
  119
  151
  186
  225
  267
  313
  367
  420
  476
  536
  598
  664
  733
  805
  880
  958
  1,039
  1,124
  1,211
  1,303
  1,398
  1,496
  1,599
  1,706
  1,817
  1,932
Tax expense, $m
  3
  8
  13
  18
  25
  32
  41
  50
  61
  72
  85
  99
  113
  129
  145
  162
  179
  198
  217
  238
  259
  281
  303
  327
  352
  377
  404
  432
  460
  490
  522
Net income, $m
  13
  21
  34
  49
  67
  87
  110
  136
  164
  195
  229
  268
  307
  348
  391
  437
  485
  535
  588
  642
  699
  759
  820
  884
  951
  1,020
  1,092
  1,167
  1,245
  1,326
  1,410

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  127
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  243
  152
  196
  248
  308
  376
  453
  539
  634
  737
  849
  970
  1,098
  1,235
  1,379
  1,531
  1,690
  1,857
  2,032
  2,213
  2,403
  2,600
  2,804
  3,017
  3,238
  3,468
  3,707
  3,955
  4,214
  4,482
  4,762
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  116
  152
  196
  248
  308
  376
  453
  539
  634
  737
  849
  970
  1,098
  1,235
  1,379
  1,531
  1,690
  1,857
  2,032
  2,213
  2,403
  2,600
  2,804
  3,017
  3,238
  3,468
  3,707
  3,955
  4,214
  4,482
  4,762
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.629
  0.632
  0.628
  0.629
  0.627
  0.628
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.630
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
Average production assets, $m
  8
  11
  14
  17
  21
  26
  31
  37
  44
  51
  59
  67
  76
  85
  95
  106
  117
  129
  141
  153
  166
  180
  194
  209
  224
  240
  256
  274
  292
  310
  329
Working capital, $m
  122
  -7
  -8
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -32
  -36
  -41
  -47
  -53
  -59
  -65
  -72
  -79
  -87
  -95
  -103
  -111
  -120
  -129
  -139
  -148
  -159
  -169
  -180
  -192
  -204
Total debt, $m
  0
  10
  21
  35
  51
  69
  90
  113
  138
  166
  196
  228
  262
  299
  337
  378
  420
  465
  511
  560
  610
  663
  718
  775
  834
  895
  959
  1,025
  1,094
  1,166
  1,240
Total liabilities, $m
  31
  41
  52
  66
  82
  100
  121
  144
  169
  197
  227
  259
  293
  330
  368
  409
  451
  496
  542
  591
  641
  694
  749
  806
  865
  926
  990
  1,056
  1,125
  1,197
  1,271
Total equity, $m
  212
  112
  144
  182
  225
  276
  332
  395
  465
  540
  623
  711
  805
  905
  1,011
  1,122
  1,239
  1,361
  1,489
  1,622
  1,761
  1,905
  2,056
  2,212
  2,374
  2,542
  2,717
  2,899
  3,089
  3,286
  3,491
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  243
  153
  196
  248
  307
  376
  453
  539
  634
  737
  850
  970
  1,098
  1,235
  1,379
  1,531
  1,690
  1,857
  2,031
  2,213
  2,402
  2,599
  2,805
  3,018
  3,239
  3,468
  3,707
  3,955
  4,214
  4,483
  4,762
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.090
  0.150
  0.190
  0.230
  0.250
  0.270
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.360
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  13
  21
  34
  49
  67
  87
  110
  136
  164
  195
  229
  268
  307
  348
  391
  437
  485
  535
  588
  642
  699
  759
  820
  884
  951
  1,020
  1,092
  1,167
  1,245
  1,326
  1,410
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
Funds from operations, $m
  6
  26
  39
  54
  72
  93
  116
  142
  170
  202
  236
  271
  310
  351
  395
  441
  489
  540
  593
  648
  705
  765
  827
  892
  959
  1,029
  1,102
  1,177
  1,256
  1,337
  1,422
Change in working capital, $m
  -8
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
Cash from operations, $m
  14
  28
  41
  57
  75
  96
  119
  146
  174
  206
  240
  276
  315
  357
  401
  447
  496
  547
  600
  656
  713
  773
  836
  901
  969
  1,039
  1,112
  1,188
  1,267
  1,349
  1,434
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -21
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -30
Free cash flow, $m
  -7
  25
  37
  52
  70
  90
  113
  138
  167
  197
  231
  265
  304
  345
  388
  433
  481
  531
  583
  638
  695
  754
  815
  879
  946
  1,015
  1,087
  1,161
  1,239
  1,320
  1,404
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  6
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  34
  49
  66
  86
  108
  134
  161
  192
  225
  261
  298
  338
  381
  426
  474
  524
  576
  630
  686
  745
  806
  870
  936
  1,005
  1,076
  1,150
  1,228
  1,308
  1,391
  1,478
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -26
  -27
  -32
  -38
  -44
  -50
  -57
  -63
  -69
  -76
  -82
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -162
  -168
  -175
  -182
  -189
  -197
  -205
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  127
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  135
  17
  28
  42
  58
  77
  98
  122
  149
  179
  209
  244
  281
  321
  362
  407
  453
  502
  553
  606
  662
  720
  780
  843
  908
  975
  1,045
  1,119
  1,194
  1,273
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  129
  16
  25
  35
  45
  56
  66
  77
  86
  94
  99
  104
  107
  108
  106
  103
  99
  92
  85
  77
  68
  60
  51
  43
  35
  28
  22
  17
  13
  10
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

CEVA, Inc. licenses signal processing intellectual property (IP) technologies to semiconductor companies and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) serving the mobile, consumer, automotive, industrial, and Internet-of Things (IoT) markets worldwide. The company licenses a family of programmable digital signal processor (DSP) cores and application-specific platforms for vision, imaging, and audio and voice, as well as communications technologies, including wireless and wired modems, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, and Serial ATA, and Serial Attached SCSI. Its technologies are licensed to semiconductor and OEM companies in the form of IP, which is used for the design, manufacture, market, and sale of application-specific integrated circuits and application-specific standard products to wireless, consumer electronics, and automotive companies for incorporation into a variety of end products. The company designs and licenses DSP cores in the form of a hardware description language definition; DSP-based platforms for LTE/LTE-A/5G baseband processing in handsets, infrastructure and machine-to-machine devices, computer vision and computational photography for various camera-enabled devices, audio/voice/speech products, and ultra-low power always-on/sensing applications for a range of IoT markets; platform solutions for Bluetooth and serial storage technology; and development platforms, software development kits, and software debug tools that facilitate system design, debug, and software development. Its IP is primarily deployed in markets, such as smartphones, tablets, smart home appliances, wearables, surveillance equipment, connected cars, drones, and industrial and medical equipment. CEVA, Inc. licenses its technology through a direct sales force. The company was formerly known as ParthusCeva, Inc. and changed its name to CEVA, Inc. in December 2003. CEVA, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CEVA (CEVA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 58
Price to Sales 10.3
Price to Book 3.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 53.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 62.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 21.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Return On Total Capital 6.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Return On Equity 6.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 91.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 90.7%
EBITDA Margin 24.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Operating Margin 20.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Pre-Tax Margin 21.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
Net Profit Margin 17.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Effective Tax Rate 18.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 61%
Payout Ratio 0%

CEVA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CEVA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $73 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CEVA. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of CEVA. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CEVA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 31.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CEVA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CEVA, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CEVA.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CEVA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 38.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $31 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CEVA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for CEVA.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CEVA. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CEVA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CEVA are equal to 11%.

Life of production assets of 27.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CEVA operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CEVA is equal to -6.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $212 million for CEVA - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 21.572 million for CEVA is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CEVA at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to CEVA, Inc. : February 6, 2017   [Feb-06-17 02:00PM  Capital Cube]
▶ SRT Group License CEVA Signal Processing IP   [Dec-13-16 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ CEVA Leads the Bluetooth® 5 IP Wave   [Dec-07-16 12:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Have Hedge Funds Found A Hidden Gem in CEVA, Inc. (CEVA)?   [Dec-02-16 12:27PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Ceva Jumps On Q3 Earnings Beat   [10:39AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ 1 Surprise Winner Inside the Apple Inc. iPhone 7   [Sep-14-16 06:25PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Ceva: Intel Acquires Competitor Movidius   [Sep-06-16 12:28PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ CEVA, Inc. to Present at Upcoming Financial Conferences   [Aug-05-16 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
Stock chart of CEVA Financial statements of CEVA
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