Intrinsic value of ConforMIS - CFMS

Previous Close

$3.57

  Intrinsic Value

$0.52

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-85%

  Value-price divergence*

-27%

Previous close

$3.57

 
Intrinsic value

$0.52

 
Up/down potential

-85%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-27%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CFMS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  19.40
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  80
  82
  83
  86
  88
  91
  94
  97
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  172
  180
  189
  198
  207
  217
  228
  239
  250
  262
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  82
  83
  86
  88
  91
  94
  97
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  132
  138
  144
  151
  157
  165
  172
  180
  189
  198
  207
  217
  227
  238
  250
  262
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  58
  60
  61
  63
  64
  66
  68
  69
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  87
  89
  91
  93
  96
  98
  101
  103
  106
  108
  111
  114
  117
  120
Total operating expenses, $m
  136
  140
  143
  147
  151
  155
  160
  165
  169
  175
  181
  187
  194
  201
  208
  215
  223
  231
  240
  248
  258
  268
  278
  290
  301
  313
  325
  338
  352
  367
  382
Operating income, $m
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -69
  -71
  -73
  -75
  -77
  -78
  -80
  -82
  -84
  -87
  -89
  -91
  -93
  -96
  -98
  -100
  -103
  -105
  -108
  -111
  -114
  -116
  -119
EBITDA, $m
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -64
  -66
  -67
  -69
  -71
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -82
  -83
  -85
  -87
  -89
  -92
  -94
  -96
  -98
  -100
  -103
  -105
  -108
  -110
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Earnings before tax, $m
  -58
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -71
  -73
  -75
  -77
  -79
  -81
  -83
  -85
  -87
  -89
  -92
  -94
  -96
  -99
  -101
  -104
  -106
  -109
  -112
  -115
  -118
  -121
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -58
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -71
  -73
  -75
  -77
  -79
  -81
  -83
  -85
  -87
  -89
  -92
  -94
  -96
  -99
  -101
  -104
  -106
  -109
  -112
  -115
  -118
  -121

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  66
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  113
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  66
  69
  71
  75
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  47
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  66
  69
  71
  75
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.702
  1.708
  1.694
  1.720
  1.692
  1.717
  1.709
  1.702
  1.695
  1.705
  1.714
  1.697
  1.696
  1.718
  1.693
  1.692
  1.704
  1.694
  1.697
  1.699
  1.701
  1.703
  1.698
  1.703
  1.707
  1.697
  1.695
  1.701
  1.707
  1.701
  1.701
Average production assets, $m
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
Working capital, $m
  82
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  46
  48
  50
  52
Total debt, $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
Total liabilities, $m
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
Total equity, $m
  94
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  113
  48
  49
  50
  52
  54
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  74
  77
  81
  84
  89
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  141
  147
  154
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.010
  0.030
  0.040
  0.060
  0.080
  0.100
  0.120
  0.140
  0.160
  0.180
  0.190
  0.210
  0.230
  0.250
  0.270
  0.280
  0.300
  0.320
  0.330
  0.350
  0.360
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -58
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -71
  -73
  -75
  -77
  -79
  -81
  -83
  -85
  -87
  -89
  -92
  -94
  -96
  -99
  -101
  -104
  -106
  -109
  -112
  -115
  -118
  -121
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
Funds from operations, $m
  -50
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -69
  -71
  -73
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -82
  -84
  -86
  -88
  -90
  -92
  -95
  -97
  -99
  -101
  -104
  -106
  -109
  -111
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Cash from operations, $m
  -49
  -56
  -57
  -59
  -60
  -62
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -75
  -77
  -79
  -81
  -83
  -85
  -87
  -90
  -92
  -94
  -96
  -99
  -101
  -103
  -106
  -109
  -111
  -114
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -35
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
Free cash flow, $m
  -84
  -59
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -71
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -82
  -85
  -87
  -89
  -91
  -94
  -96
  -99
  -101
  -104
  -107
  -110
  -112
  -115
  -118
  -122
  -125
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  4
  59
  61
  62
  64
  65
  67
  69
  71
  73
  75
  76
  78
  80
  83
  85
  87
  89
  92
  94
  96
  99
  101
  104
  107
  110
  113
  116
  119
  122
  125
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  4
  59
  61
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  77
  79
  81
  84
  86
  88
  90
  94
  96
  98
  101
  103
  106
  109
  112
  115
  118
  122
  125
  128
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -80
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  47
  -59
  -61
  -62
  -64
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -71
  -73
  -75
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -83
  -85
  -87
  -89
  -92
  -94
  -96
  -99
  -101
  -104
  -107
  -110
  -113
  -116
  -119
  -122
  -125
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  66
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  8
  -60
  -62
  -63
  -65
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -73
  -75
  -77
  -79
  -81
  -83
  -85
  -88
  -90
  -92
  -95
  -97
  -99
  -102
  -105
  -107
  -110
  -113
  -116
  -119
  -122
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  7
  -55
  -54
  -52
  -50
  -48
  -46
  -44
  -41
  -39
  -36
  -33
  -30
  -27
  -24
  -22
  -19
  -17
  -14
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  44.6
  19.8
  8.8
  3.9
  1.7
  0.8
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

ConforMIS, Inc. is a medical technology company. The Company uses its iFit Image-to-Implant technology platform to develop, manufacture and sell joint replacement implants, which are individually sized and shaped, to fit each patient's anatomy. The Company's iFit technology platform is applicable to various joints. It offers a line of customized knee implants designed to restore the natural shape of a patient's knee. It offers iTotal CR, which is a total knee replacement implant. Its iFit technology platform consists of three elements, including iFit Design, its algorithms and computer software that is used to design customized implants and associated single-use patient-specific instrumentation referred to as iJigs, based on computed tomography scans of the patient and to prepare a surgical plan customized for the patient (iView); iFit Printing, which is a three-dimensional printing technology used to manufacture iJigs, and iFit Just-in-Time manufacturing and delivery capabilities.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ConforMIS (CFMS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2.7
Price to Sales 1.9
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -3.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -2.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 19.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 40%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -42.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -50.2%
Return On Total Capital -49.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -58.3%
Return On Equity -49.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -62.1%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 33.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.3%
EBITDA Margin -68.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -79.8%
Operating Margin -70%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -83.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -72.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -84.5%
Net Profit Margin -72.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -84.5%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

CFMS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CFMS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $80 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ConforMIS. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of ConforMIS. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CFMS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CFMS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ConforMIS, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ConforMIS.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CFMS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 100%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $57 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CFMS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for ConforMIS.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ConforMIS. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CFMS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CFMS are equal to 17.5%.

Life of production assets of 5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ConforMIS operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CFMS is equal to 20%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $94 million for ConforMIS - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 44.706 million for ConforMIS is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ConforMIS at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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SNN Smith&Nephew A 38.12 15.47  str.sell
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JNJ Johnson&Johnso 140.68 96.55  sell
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NUVA NuVasive 54.18 53.09  hold

COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to ConforMIS, Inc. : October 13, 2017   [Oct-13-17 10:37AM  Capital Cube]
▶ 5 MedTech Stocks to Buy Before Q3 Earnings   [Oct-05-17 01:49PM  Zacks]
▶ ConforMIS reports 2Q loss   [Aug-04-17 02:36AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to ConforMIS, Inc. : August 1, 2017   [Aug-01-17 04:23PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Will ConforMIS (CFMS) Continue to Surge Higher?   [Jul-28-17 07:48AM  Zacks]
▶ ConforMIS Names Dan Krupp Senior Vice President U.S. Sales   [Jul-11-17 04:10PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to ConforMIS, Inc. : June 26, 2017   [Jun-26-17 03:36PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to ConforMIS, Inc. : June 16, 2017   [Jun-16-17 03:33PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ConforMIS reports 1Q loss   [May-10-17 05:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to ConforMIS, Inc. : April 7, 2017   [Apr-07-17 04:08PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to ConforMIS, Inc. : March 27, 2017   [Mar-27-17 03:52PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Why ConforMIS Stock Is Tanking Today   [12:09PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why ConforMIS Stock Is Tanking Today   [12:09PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ ConforMIS reports 4Q loss   [Feb-15-17 05:36PM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of CFMS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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