The Carlyle Group LP is an investment firm specializing in direct and fund of fund investments. Within direct investments, it specializes in management-led/ Leveraged buyouts, privatizations, divestitures, strategic minority equity investments, structured credit, global distressed and corporate opportunities, small and middle market, equity private placements, consolidations and buildups, senior debt, mezzanine and leveraged finance, and venture and growth capital financings, seed/startup, early venture, emerging growth, turnaround, mid venture, late venture, PIPES. The firm invests across four segments which include Corporate Private Equity, Real Assets, Global Market Strategies, and Solutions. The firm typically invests in agribusiness, ecological sector, airports, parking, Plastics, Rubber, diversified natural resources, minerals, farming, aerospace, defense, automotive, consumer, retail, industrial, infrastructure, energy, power, healthcare, software, software enabled services, semiconductors, communications infrastructure, financial technology, utilities, gaming, systems and related supply chain, electronic systems, systems, oil and gas, processing facilities, power generation assets, technology, systems, real estate, financial services, transportation, business services, telecommunications, media, and logistics sectors. Within the industrial sector, the firm invests in manufacturing, building products, packaging, chemicals, metals and mining, forestry and paper products, and industrial consumables and services. In consumer and retail sectors, it invests in food and beverage, retail, restaurants, consumer products, domestic consumption, consumer services, personal care products, direct marketing, and education. Within aerospace, defense, business services, and government services sectors, it seeks to invest in defense electronics, manufacturing and services, government contracting and services, information technology, distribution companies. In telecommunication and media sectors, it invests in cable TV, directories, publishing, entertainment and content delivery services, wireless infrastructure/services, fixed line networks, satellite services, broadband and Internet, and infrastructure. Within real estate, the firm invests in office, hotel, industrial, retail, for sale residential, student housing, hospitality, multifamily residential, homebuilding and building products, and senior living sectors. The firm seeks to make investments in growing business including those with overleveraged balance sheets. The firm seeks to hold its investments for four to six years. In the healthcare sector, it invests in healthcare services, outsourcing services, companies running clinical trials for pharmaceutical companies, managed care, pharmaceuticals, pharmaceutical related services, healthcare IT, medical, products, and devices. It seeks to invest in companies based in Sub-Saharan focusing on Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Botswana, Nigeria, Uganda, West Africa, North Africa and South Africa focusing on Tanzania and Zambia; Asia focusing on Pakistan, India, South East Asia, Indonesia, Korea, and Japan; Australia; New Zealand; Europe focusing on France, Italy, Denmark, United Kingdom, Germany, Austria, Belgium, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Benelux , Sweden, Switzerland, Hungary, Poland, and Russia; Middle East focusing on Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and UAE; North America focusing on United States which further invest in Southeastern United States, Texas, Boston, San Francisco Bay Area and Pacific Northwest; Asia Pacific; Soviet Union, Central-Eastern Europe, and Israel; Nordic region; and South America focusing on Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Peru. The firm seeks to invest in food, financial, and healthcare industries in Western China. In the real estate sector, the firm seeks to invest in various locations across Europe focusing on France and Central Europe, United States, Asia focusing on China, and Latin America. It typically invests between $5 million and $50 million for venture investments and between $20 million and $1 billion for buyouts in companies with enterprise value of between $37.15 million and $1000 million and sales value of $10 million and $500 million. It seeks to invest in companies with market capitalization greater than $50 million. It typically holds its investments for three to five years. Within automotive and transportation sectors, the firm seeks to hold its investments in for four to six years. While investing in Japan, it does not invest in companies with more than 1,000 employees and prefers companies worth between $100 million and $150 million. The firm originates, structures, and acts as lead equity investor in the transactions. The Carlyle Group LP was founded in 1987 and is based in Washington, District of Columbia with additional offices in 20 countries across six continents (North America, South America, Asia, Australia, Europe, and Africa).
FINANCIAL RATIOS of Carlyle Group (CG)
|Price to Sales||0.8|
|Price to Book||5.7|
|Price to Tangible Book|
|Price to Cash Flow||-5.8|
|Price to Free Cash Flow||-5.4|
|Sales Growth Rate||-24.4%|
|Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate||%|
|EPS Growth Rate||%|
|EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate||%|
|Capital Spending Gr. Rate||-59.7%|
|Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate||-3.6%|
|LT Debt to Equity||1691.9%|
|Total Debt to Equity||1691.9%|
|Return On Assets||0.1%|
|Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg.||0.2%|
|Return On Total Capital||0%|
|Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg.||0.1%|
|Return On Equity||1.5%|
|Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg.||3.3%|
|Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg.||57.3%|
|EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg.||21.9%|
|Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg.||-3.8%|
|Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg.||13.6%|
|Net Profit Margin||0.3%|
|Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg.||0.6%|
|Effective Tax Rate||66.7%|
|Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg.||25%|
CG stock valuation input parameters
Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2274 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Carlyle Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Carlyle Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.
Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.
Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
The initial discount rate of 11.9%, whose default value for CG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Carlyle Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Carlyle Group.
By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.
Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 115.3%.
Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.
Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Carlyle Group.
Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Carlyle Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.
Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CG stock is equal to 0%.
Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CG are equal to 2.8%.
Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Carlyle Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.
Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CG is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.
Book value of equity - $308 million for Carlyle Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.
Shares outstanding of 320.743 million for Carlyle Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.
Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Carlyle Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.6 billion.