Intrinsic value of Cognex - CGNX

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$82.54

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$82.54

 
Intrinsic value

$124.08

 
Up/down potential

+50%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CGNX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 7.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  15.52
  31.60
  28.94
  26.55
  24.39
  22.45
  20.71
  19.14
  17.72
  16.45
  15.31
  14.27
  13.35
  12.51
  11.76
  11.09
  10.48
  9.93
  9.44
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.62
  7.36
  7.12
  6.91
  6.72
  6.55
  6.39
  6.25
Revenue, $m
  521
  686
  884
  1,119
  1,392
  1,704
  2,057
  2,451
  2,885
  3,359
  3,874
  4,427
  5,017
  5,645
  6,309
  7,009
  7,743
  8,512
  9,315
  10,152
  11,025
  11,933
  12,876
  13,858
  14,877
  15,937
  17,038
  18,183
  19,373
  20,611
  21,900
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  301
  385
  485
  601
  733
  883
  1,050
  1,235
  1,436
  1,655
  1,880
  2,131
  2,398
  2,680
  2,977
  3,289
  3,615
  3,957
  4,312
  4,683
  5,069
  5,469
  5,886
  6,319
  6,769
  7,237
  7,723
  8,229
  8,755
  9,302
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  135
  139
  142
  146
  149
  153
  157
  161
  165
  169
  173
  178
  182
  187
  191
  196
  201
  206
  211
  216
  222
  227
  233
  239
  245
  251
  257
  264
  270
  277
Total operating expenses, $m
  360
  436
  524
  627
  747
  882
  1,036
  1,207
  1,396
  1,601
  1,824
  2,053
  2,309
  2,580
  2,867
  3,168
  3,485
  3,816
  4,163
  4,523
  4,899
  5,291
  5,696
  6,119
  6,558
  7,014
  7,488
  7,980
  8,493
  9,025
  9,579
Operating income, $m
  161
  250
  360
  492
  645
  821
  1,021
  1,243
  1,489
  1,758
  2,050
  2,373
  2,709
  3,065
  3,443
  3,840
  4,258
  4,695
  5,152
  5,629
  6,126
  6,642
  7,180
  7,738
  8,319
  8,923
  9,550
  10,202
  10,880
  11,586
  12,321
EBITDA, $m
  176
  265
  377
  510
  666
  845
  1,047
  1,272
  1,522
  1,795
  2,090
  2,409
  2,749
  3,111
  3,493
  3,897
  4,320
  4,764
  5,227
  5,710
  6,214
  6,738
  7,283
  7,850
  8,438
  9,050
  9,687
  10,348
  11,036
  11,752
  12,497
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  17
  20
  23
  26
  30
  33
  37
  41
  45
  49
  54
  58
  63
  68
  73
  79
  84
  90
  96
  103
Earnings before tax, $m
  169
  250
  360
  490
  642
  817
  1,015
  1,235
  1,479
  1,746
  2,035
  2,356
  2,689
  3,042
  3,417
  3,811
  4,225
  4,658
  5,111
  5,584
  6,076
  6,589
  7,121
  7,675
  8,251
  8,849
  9,471
  10,118
  10,790
  11,490
  12,218
Tax expense, $m
  19
  67
  97
  132
  173
  221
  274
  334
  399
  471
  550
  636
  726
  821
  922
  1,029
  1,141
  1,258
  1,380
  1,508
  1,641
  1,779
  1,923
  2,072
  2,228
  2,389
  2,557
  2,732
  2,913
  3,102
  3,299
Net income, $m
  150
  182
  262
  358
  469
  596
  741
  902
  1,080
  1,275
  1,486
  1,720
  1,963
  2,221
  2,494
  2,782
  3,084
  3,401
  3,731
  4,076
  4,436
  4,810
  5,199
  5,603
  6,023
  6,460
  6,914
  7,386
  7,877
  8,388
  8,919

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  421
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,039
  813
  1,049
  1,327
  1,651
  2,021
  2,440
  2,907
  3,422
  3,985
  4,595
  5,251
  5,952
  6,697
  7,484
  8,314
  9,185
  10,097
  11,049
  12,043
  13,078
  14,155
  15,275
  16,438
  17,648
  18,905
  20,211
  21,569
  22,981
  24,450
  25,979
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  618
  813
  1,049
  1,327
  1,651
  2,021
  2,440
  2,907
  3,422
  3,985
  4,595
  5,251
  5,952
  6,697
  7,484
  8,314
  9,185
  10,097
  11,049
  12,043
  13,078
  14,155
  15,275
  16,438
  17,648
  18,905
  20,211
  21,569
  22,981
  24,450
  25,979
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.843
  0.844
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
Average production assets, $m
  34
  45
  57
  73
  90
  111
  134
  159
  188
  218
  252
  288
  326
  367
  410
  456
  503
  553
  605
  660
  717
  776
  837
  901
  967
  1,036
  1,107
  1,182
  1,259
  1,340
  1,424
Working capital, $m
  460
  51
  66
  84
  104
  128
  154
  184
  216
  252
  291
  332
  376
  423
  473
  526
  581
  638
  699
  761
  827
  895
  966
  1,039
  1,116
  1,195
  1,278
  1,364
  1,453
  1,546
  1,643
Total debt, $m
  0
  24
  53
  87
  127
  173
  224
  282
  345
  414
  489
  570
  656
  748
  845
  947
  1,054
  1,166
  1,283
  1,405
  1,533
  1,665
  1,803
  1,946
  2,095
  2,249
  2,410
  2,577
  2,751
  2,931
  3,119
Total liabilities, $m
  76
  100
  129
  163
  203
  249
  300
  358
  421
  490
  565
  646
  732
  824
  921
  1,023
  1,130
  1,242
  1,359
  1,481
  1,609
  1,741
  1,879
  2,022
  2,171
  2,325
  2,486
  2,653
  2,827
  3,007
  3,195
Total equity, $m
  963
  713
  920
  1,164
  1,448
  1,773
  2,140
  2,549
  3,001
  3,495
  4,030
  4,605
  5,220
  5,873
  6,564
  7,291
  8,055
  8,855
  9,690
  10,562
  11,469
  12,414
  13,396
  14,416
  15,477
  16,579
  17,725
  18,916
  20,154
  21,443
  22,783
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,039
  813
  1,049
  1,327
  1,651
  2,022
  2,440
  2,907
  3,422
  3,985
  4,595
  5,251
  5,952
  6,697
  7,485
  8,314
  9,185
  10,097
  11,049
  12,043
  13,078
  14,155
  15,275
  16,438
  17,648
  18,904
  20,211
  21,569
  22,981
  24,450
  25,978
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.030
  0.060
  0.070
  0.090
  0.100
  0.100
  0.110
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.877
  0.877
  0.877
  0.877
  0.877
  0.877
  0.877
  0.877
  0.877
  0.877
  0.877
  0.877
  0.877
  0.877
  0.877
  0.877
  0.877
  0.877
  0.877
  0.877
  0.877
  0.877
  0.877
  0.877
  0.877
  0.877
  0.877
  0.877
  0.877
  0.877
  0.877

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  150
  182
  262
  358
  469
  596
  741
  902
  1,080
  1,275
  1,486
  1,720
  1,963
  2,221
  2,494
  2,782
  3,084
  3,401
  3,731
  4,076
  4,436
  4,810
  5,199
  5,603
  6,023
  6,460
  6,914
  7,386
  7,877
  8,388
  8,919
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  15
  15
  17
  18
  21
  23
  26
  29
  33
  36
  41
  36
  40
  45
  51
  56
  62
  68
  75
  81
  88
  96
  103
  111
  119
  128
  137
  146
  155
  165
  176
Funds from operations, $m
  182
  197
  279
  376
  490
  620
  767
  931
  1,113
  1,311
  1,526
  1,755
  2,003
  2,266
  2,545
  2,838
  3,146
  3,469
  3,806
  4,158
  4,524
  4,905
  5,302
  5,714
  6,143
  6,588
  7,051
  7,532
  8,032
  8,553
  9,095
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  12
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  30
  33
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  76
  79
  83
  86
  89
  93
  97
Cash from operations, $m
  182
  213
  264
  359
  469
  596
  740
  901
  1,080
  1,275
  1,488
  1,714
  1,959
  2,219
  2,495
  2,786
  3,091
  3,411
  3,746
  4,095
  4,459
  4,837
  5,231
  5,641
  6,066
  6,508
  6,968
  7,446
  7,943
  8,460
  8,998
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -27
  -31
  -36
  -40
  -45
  -51
  -56
  -62
  -68
  -75
  -81
  -88
  -96
  -103
  -111
  -119
  -128
  -137
  -146
  -155
  -165
New CAPEX, $m
  -13
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -122
  -15
  -19
  -22
  -27
  -31
  -37
  -43
  -48
  -54
  -60
  -67
  -74
  -81
  -88
  -96
  -104
  -112
  -120
  -129
  -138
  -147
  -157
  -167
  -177
  -188
  -200
  -211
  -223
  -235
  -249
Free cash flow, $m
  60
  198
  246
  336
  442
  565
  704
  859
  1,032
  1,221
  1,427
  1,647
  1,885
  2,138
  2,406
  2,690
  2,987
  3,299
  3,625
  3,966
  4,321
  4,690
  5,074
  5,474
  5,889
  6,320
  6,769
  7,235
  7,720
  8,224
  8,749
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  24
  29
  34
  40
  46
  51
  57
  63
  69
  75
  81
  86
  92
  97
  102
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  132
  138
  143
  149
  155
  161
  167
  174
  181
  188
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -4
  24
  29
  34
  40
  46
  51
  57
  63
  69
  75
  81
  86
  92
  97
  102
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  132
  138
  143
  149
  155
  161
  167
  174
  181
  188
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  53
  222
  275
  370
  482
  610
  755
  917
  1,095
  1,291
  1,502
  1,728
  1,971
  2,230
  2,503
  2,792
  3,094
  3,411
  3,743
  4,088
  4,448
  4,822
  5,212
  5,617
  6,037
  6,475
  6,929
  7,402
  7,893
  8,405
  8,937
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -137
  -171
  -206
  -244
  -284
  -325
  -367
  -409
  -452
  -494
  -535
  -575
  -615
  -653
  -691
  -728
  -764
  -800
  -836
  -871
  -908
  -944
  -982
  -1,021
  -1,061
  -1,102
  -1,146
  -1,191
  -1,238
  -1,288
  -1,341
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  421
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  472
  68
  126
  198
  285
  388
  507
  644
  797
  967
  1,152
  1,356
  1,577
  1,813
  2,064
  2,330
  2,612
  2,907
  3,217
  3,540
  3,878
  4,230
  4,596
  4,977
  5,372
  5,784
  6,211
  6,655
  7,117
  7,596
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  452
  63
  110
  163
  221
  282
  343
  402
  458
  507
  547
  579
  599
  609
  606
  592
  568
  535
  495
  450
  401
  351
  301
  253
  209
  169
  133
  103
  78
  57
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Cognex Corporation provides machine vision products that capture and analyze visual information in order to automate tasks primarily in manufacturing processes worldwide. The company offers machine vision products, which are used to automate the manufacturing and tracking of discrete items, such as mobile phones, aspirin bottles, and automobile tires by locating, identifying, inspecting, and measuring them during the manufacturing or distribution process. Its products include VisionPro, a software suite that provides various vision tools for programming; displacement sensors with vision software for use in 3D application; In-Sight vision systems that perform various vision tasks, including part location, identification, measurement, assembly verification, and robotic guidance; In-Sight vision sensors; ID products, which are used for reading codes that are applied on discrete items during the manufacturing process, as well as have applications in logistics automation for package sorting and distribution; DataMan barcode readers; barcode verifiers; vision-enabled mobile terminals for industrial barcode reading applications; and barcode scanning software development kits. The company sells its products through direct sales force, as well as through a network of distributors and integrators. Cognex Corporation was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Natick, Massachusetts.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cognex (CGNX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 47.3
Price to Sales 13.6
Price to Book 7.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 39
Price to Free Cash Flow 42
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 15.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -55.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 15.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.7%
Return On Total Capital 16.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
Return On Equity 16.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 77.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 77.6%
EBITDA Margin 35.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.5%
Operating Margin 30.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 32.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.5%
Net Profit Margin 28.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.9%
Effective Tax Rate 11.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Payout Ratio 16.7%

CGNX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CGNX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $521 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cognex. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Cognex. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CGNX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 31.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CGNX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cognex, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cognex.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CGNX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 44.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $132 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CGNX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Cognex.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cognex. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CGNX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CGNX are equal to 6.5%.

Life of production assets of 8.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cognex operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CGNX is equal to 7.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $963 million for Cognex - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 86.718 million for Cognex is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cognex at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.2 billion.


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