Intrinsic value of Chemed - CHE

Previous Close

$261.22

  Intrinsic Value

$174.22

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-33%

Previous close

$261.22

 
Intrinsic value

$174.22

 
Up/down potential

-33%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CHE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.20
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.17
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
Revenue, $m
  1,577
  1,673
  1,773
  1,878
  1,987
  2,101
  2,219
  2,343
  2,473
  2,608
  2,749
  2,897
  3,052
  3,214
  3,384
  3,562
  3,748
  3,943
  4,147
  4,362
  4,586
  4,822
  5,069
  5,328
  5,599
  5,884
  6,183
  6,496
  6,825
  7,171
  7,533
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,471
  1,557
  1,645
  1,738
  1,835
  1,936
  2,041
  2,152
  2,267
  2,387
  2,466
  2,598
  2,736
  2,880
  3,031
  3,190
  3,356
  3,530
  3,712
  3,903
  4,104
  4,314
  4,534
  4,765
  5,008
  5,262
  5,529
  5,809
  6,103
  6,411
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,398
  1,471
  1,557
  1,645
  1,738
  1,835
  1,936
  2,041
  2,152
  2,267
  2,387
  2,466
  2,598
  2,736
  2,880
  3,031
  3,190
  3,356
  3,530
  3,712
  3,903
  4,104
  4,314
  4,534
  4,765
  5,008
  5,262
  5,529
  5,809
  6,103
  6,411
Operating income, $m
  179
  202
  217
  232
  249
  266
  283
  302
  321
  341
  362
  432
  455
  479
  504
  530
  558
  587
  618
  650
  683
  718
  755
  793
  834
  876
  921
  968
  1,016
  1,068
  1,122
EBITDA, $m
  214
  259
  275
  291
  308
  325
  344
  363
  383
  404
  426
  449
  473
  498
  524
  552
  581
  611
  643
  676
  711
  747
  785
  825
  867
  912
  958
  1,006
  1,057
  1,111
  1,167
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  41
  44
  47
Earnings before tax, $m
  177
  198
  213
  227
  243
  259
  276
  293
  312
  331
  351
  419
  441
  464
  488
  513
  539
  567
  596
  626
  658
  691
  726
  763
  802
  842
  884
  929
  975
  1,024
  1,075
Tax expense, $m
  68
  54
  57
  61
  66
  70
  74
  79
  84
  89
  95
  113
  119
  125
  132
  139
  146
  153
  161
  169
  178
  187
  196
  206
  216
  227
  239
  251
  263
  276
  290
Net income, $m
  109
  145
  155
  166
  177
  189
  201
  214
  228
  241
  256
  306
  322
  339
  356
  375
  394
  414
  435
  457
  480
  505
  530
  557
  585
  615
  645
  678
  712
  748
  785

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  880
  918
  973
  1,030
  1,090
  1,152
  1,217
  1,285
  1,356
  1,431
  1,508
  1,589
  1,674
  1,763
  1,856
  1,954
  2,056
  2,163
  2,275
  2,393
  2,516
  2,645
  2,780
  2,922
  3,071
  3,228
  3,392
  3,564
  3,744
  3,933
  4,132
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  865
  918
  973
  1,030
  1,090
  1,152
  1,217
  1,285
  1,356
  1,431
  1,508
  1,589
  1,674
  1,763
  1,856
  1,954
  2,056
  2,163
  2,275
  2,393
  2,516
  2,645
  2,780
  2,922
  3,071
  3,228
  3,392
  3,564
  3,744
  3,933
  4,132
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.823
  1.822
  1.822
  1.823
  1.823
  1.824
  1.823
  1.823
  1.824
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
  1.823
Average production assets, $m
  175
  186
  197
  208
  221
  233
  246
  260
  274
  289
  305
  322
  339
  357
  376
  395
  416
  438
  460
  484
  509
  535
  563
  591
  622
  653
  686
  721
  758
  796
  836
Working capital, $m
  -2
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
Total debt, $m
  109
  121
  143
  166
  190
  215
  241
  268
  297
  327
  358
  390
  424
  460
  497
  537
  577
  620
  665
  712
  762
  814
  868
  925
  985
  1,047
  1,113
  1,182
  1,254
  1,330
  1,410
Total liabilities, $m
  356
  368
  390
  413
  437
  462
  488
  515
  544
  574
  605
  637
  671
  707
  744
  784
  824
  867
  912
  959
  1,009
  1,061
  1,115
  1,172
  1,232
  1,294
  1,360
  1,429
  1,501
  1,577
  1,657
Total equity, $m
  524
  550
  583
  617
  653
  690
  729
  770
  812
  857
  903
  952
  1,003
  1,056
  1,112
  1,170
  1,232
  1,296
  1,363
  1,433
  1,507
  1,584
  1,665
  1,751
  1,840
  1,933
  2,032
  2,135
  2,243
  2,356
  2,475
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  880
  918
  973
  1,030
  1,090
  1,152
  1,217
  1,285
  1,356
  1,431
  1,508
  1,589
  1,674
  1,763
  1,856
  1,954
  2,056
  2,163
  2,275
  2,392
  2,516
  2,645
  2,780
  2,923
  3,072
  3,227
  3,392
  3,564
  3,744
  3,933
  4,132
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.208
  0.220
  0.250
  0.270
  0.290
  0.310
  0.330
  0.350
  0.370
  0.380
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.570
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.588
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  109
  145
  155
  166
  177
  189
  201
  214
  228
  241
  256
  306
  322
  339
  356
  375
  394
  414
  435
  457
  480
  505
  530
  557
  585
  615
  645
  678
  712
  748
  785
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  35
  57
  58
  58
  59
  60
  61
  61
  62
  63
  64
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
Funds from operations, $m
  110
  202
  213
  225
  236
  249
  262
  275
  290
  304
  320
  323
  340
  358
  376
  396
  416
  438
  460
  483
  508
  534
  561
  589
  619
  650
  683
  717
  753
  791
  830
Change in working capital, $m
  -25
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  135
  203
  214
  225
  237
  249
  262
  276
  290
  305
  321
  324
  341
  359
  377
  397
  417
  439
  461
  484
  509
  535
  562
  590
  620
  651
  684
  718
  754
  792
  832
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
New CAPEX, $m
  -40
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -40
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
Free cash flow, $m
  95
  182
  192
  203
  214
  225
  237
  249
  262
  275
  289
  291
  306
  322
  339
  357
  375
  394
  415
  436
  458
  481
  506
  531
  558
  586
  616
  646
  679
  713
  749
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  17
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  80
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -94
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -79
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  80
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  17
  203
  214
  226
  238
  250
  263
  276
  290
  305
  320
  324
  340
  358
  377
  396
  416
  437
  460
  483
  507
  533
  560
  588
  618
  649
  681
  715
  751
  789
  828
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -11
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  177
  182
  191
  202
  213
  224
  235
  248
  260
  274
  275
  290
  305
  321
  337
  355
  373
  392
  413
  434
  456
  479
  503
  528
  555
  583
  612
  643
  676
  709
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  170
  166
  167
  166
  165
  162
  159
  155
  150
  144
  131
  124
  116
  108
  99
  90
  81
  72
  64
  55
  47
  40
  33
  27
  22
  17
  13
  10
  7
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Chemed Corporation purchases, operates and divests subsidiaries engaged in various business activities. The Company operates through two segments: the VITAS segment (VITAS) and the Roto-Rooter segment (Roto-Rooter). The Company's VITAS provides hospice and palliative care services to its patients through a network of physicians, registered nurses, home health aides, social workers, clergy and volunteers. VITAS is the provider of hospice services in an industry dominated primarily by small, non-profit, community-based hospices. VITAS provides hospice care to Medicare beneficiaries participating in these managed care programs. A portion of its VITAS business is operated in the state of Florida. The Roto-Rooter segment provides plumbing, drain cleaning, water restoration and other related services to both residential and commercial customers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Chemed (CHE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 38.8
Price to Sales 2.7
Price to Book 8.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 31.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 44.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -9.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 19.1%
Total Debt to Equity 20.8%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Return On Total Capital 17.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.3%
Return On Equity 21%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.9%
Asset Turnover 1.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 29.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.3%
EBITDA Margin 13.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.5%
Operating Margin 11.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Net Profit Margin 6.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Effective Tax Rate 38.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.9%
Payout Ratio 14.7%

CHE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CHE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1577 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Chemed. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Chemed. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CHE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CHE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Chemed, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Chemed.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CHE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CHE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Chemed.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Chemed. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CHE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CHE are equal to 11.1%.

Life of production assets of 18.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Chemed operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CHE is equal to -0.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $524 million for Chemed - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 15.925 million for Chemed is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Chemed at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 13 Small-Cap Stocks With Wide Quantitative Moats   [Feb-20-18 06:00AM  Morningstar]
▶ Chemed Corporation Declares Quarterly Dividend of 28 Cents   [Feb-16-18 12:44PM  Business Wire]
▶ Chemed posts 4Q profit   [Feb-14-18 06:05PM  Associated Press]
▶ Chemed Reports Fourth-Quarter 2017 Results   [04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ 4 Growth Stocks to Pick From a Choppy MedTech Market   [Dec-14-17 03:05PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Chemed Corp. : December 13, 2017   [Dec-13-17 12:57PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Chemed Corp. : November 14, 2017   [Nov-14-17 02:05PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Chemed Corporation Declares Quarterly Dividend of 28 Cents   [Nov-03-17 11:51AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Chemed Corp. : November 2, 2017   [Nov-02-17 12:00PM  Capital Cube]
▶ One of Cincinnati's largest public companies agrees to $75M settlement with feds   [Oct-31-17 12:55PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Chemed Settles DOJ Litigation   [11:23AM  Business Wire]
▶ Stocks Showing Market Leadership: Chemed Earns 90 RS Rating   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Chemed posts 3Q profit   [Oct-26-17 06:35PM  Associated Press]
▶ Chemed Reports Third-Quarter 2017 Results   [04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Chemed Getting Closer To Key Technical Measure   [Sep-18-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Chemed Corp. : August 18, 2017   [Aug-18-17 04:34PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Chemed Corporation Increases Quarterly Dividend 7.7%   [Aug-04-17 12:06PM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of CHE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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