Intrinsic value of Chefs' Warehouse - CHEF

Previous Close

$21.05

  Intrinsic Value

$16.95

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-19%

  Value-price divergence*

-18%

Previous close

$21.05

 
Intrinsic value

$16.95

 
Up/down potential

-19%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

-18%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CHEF stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  13.94
  14.10
  13.19
  12.37
  11.63
  10.97
  10.37
  9.84
  9.35
  8.92
  8.53
  8.17
  7.86
  7.57
  7.31
  7.08
  6.87
  6.69
  6.52
  6.37
  6.23
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.65
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
Revenue, $m
  1,193
  1,361
  1,541
  1,731
  1,933
  2,145
  2,367
  2,600
  2,843
  3,097
  3,361
  3,636
  3,921
  4,218
  4,527
  4,847
  5,180
  5,527
  5,887
  6,262
  6,652
  7,058
  7,481
  7,922
  8,382
  8,862
  9,363
  9,886
  10,433
  11,004
  11,602
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,303
  1,473
  1,653
  1,843
  2,044
  2,254
  2,474
  2,704
  2,944
  3,193
  3,437
  3,707
  3,987
  4,279
  4,582
  4,897
  5,224
  5,565
  5,919
  6,287
  6,671
  7,071
  7,488
  7,923
  8,377
  8,850
  9,345
  9,862
  10,402
  10,966
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,146
  1,305
  1,475
  1,655
  1,845
  2,046
  2,256
  2,476
  2,706
  2,946
  3,196
  3,440
  3,710
  3,990
  4,282
  4,585
  4,900
  5,227
  5,568
  5,922
  6,290
  6,674
  7,074
  7,492
  7,927
  8,381
  8,854
  9,349
  9,866
  10,406
  10,970
Operating income, $m
  47
  56
  66
  76
  87
  99
  111
  124
  137
  151
  165
  196
  212
  228
  245
  262
  281
  300
  319
  340
  361
  383
  406
  430
  455
  481
  509
  537
  567
  598
  631
EBITDA, $m
  65
  84
  95
  107
  119
  133
  147
  161
  177
  192
  209
  226
  244
  263
  282
  302
  323
  345
  368
  391
  416
  441
  468
  495
  524
  554
  586
  619
  653
  689
  726
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  11
  13
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  42
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  70
  74
  79
  84
  90
  95
  101
  107
  113
  119
  126
  133
Earnings before tax, $m
  6
  45
  53
  61
  69
  78
  88
  98
  108
  119
  130
  158
  170
  183
  196
  210
  224
  239
  254
  270
  287
  304
  322
  341
  360
  381
  402
  424
  448
  472
  498
Tax expense, $m
  3
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  26
  29
  32
  35
  43
  46
  49
  53
  57
  60
  64
  69
  73
  77
  82
  87
  92
  97
  103
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
Net income, $m
  3
  33
  38
  44
  51
  57
  64
  71
  79
  87
  95
  116
  124
  134
  143
  153
  163
  174
  185
  197
  209
  222
  235
  249
  263
  278
  294
  310
  327
  345
  363

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  33
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  634
  686
  776
  872
  974
  1,081
  1,193
  1,310
  1,432
  1,560
  1,693
  1,832
  1,975
  2,125
  2,280
  2,442
  2,610
  2,784
  2,966
  3,154
  3,351
  3,556
  3,769
  3,991
  4,223
  4,464
  4,717
  4,980
  5,256
  5,544
  5,845
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  601
  686
  776
  872
  974
  1,081
  1,193
  1,310
  1,432
  1,560
  1,693
  1,832
  1,975
  2,125
  2,280
  2,442
  2,610
  2,784
  2,966
  3,154
  3,351
  3,556
  3,769
  3,991
  4,223
  4,464
  4,717
  4,980
  5,256
  5,544
  5,845
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.985
  1.984
  1.986
  1.985
  1.985
  1.984
  1.984
  1.985
  1.985
  1.985
  1.985
  1.985
  1.985
  1.985
  1.986
  1.985
  1.985
  1.985
  1.985
  1.985
  1.985
  1.985
  1.985
  1.985
  1.985
  1.985
  1.985
  1.985
  1.985
  1.985
  1.985
Average production assets, $m
  192
  219
  248
  279
  311
  345
  381
  419
  458
  499
  541
  585
  631
  679
  729
  780
  834
  890
  948
  1,008
  1,071
  1,136
  1,204
  1,275
  1,350
  1,427
  1,507
  1,592
  1,680
  1,772
  1,868
Working capital, $m
  157
  159
  180
  203
  226
  251
  277
  304
  333
  362
  393
  425
  459
  494
  530
  567
  606
  647
  689
  733
  778
  826
  875
  927
  981
  1,037
  1,095
  1,157
  1,221
  1,287
  1,357
Total debt, $m
  333
  378
  442
  510
  581
  657
  736
  819
  906
  996
  1,090
  1,188
  1,290
  1,395
  1,505
  1,619
  1,738
  1,861
  1,990
  2,123
  2,262
  2,407
  2,558
  2,715
  2,878
  3,049
  3,228
  3,414
  3,609
  3,812
  4,025
Total liabilities, $m
  440
  485
  549
  617
  688
  764
  843
  926
  1,013
  1,103
  1,197
  1,295
  1,397
  1,502
  1,612
  1,726
  1,845
  1,968
  2,097
  2,230
  2,369
  2,514
  2,665
  2,822
  2,985
  3,156
  3,335
  3,521
  3,716
  3,919
  4,132
Total equity, $m
  194
  201
  227
  256
  285
  317
  349
  384
  420
  457
  496
  537
  579
  623
  668
  715
  765
  816
  869
  924
  982
  1,042
  1,104
  1,169
  1,237
  1,308
  1,382
  1,459
  1,540
  1,624
  1,712
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  634
  686
  776
  873
  973
  1,081
  1,192
  1,310
  1,433
  1,560
  1,693
  1,832
  1,976
  2,125
  2,280
  2,441
  2,610
  2,784
  2,966
  3,154
  3,351
  3,556
  3,769
  3,991
  4,222
  4,464
  4,717
  4,980
  5,256
  5,543
  5,844
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.716
  1.880
  1.940
  1.990
  2.040
  2.070
  2.110
  2.130
  2.160
  2.180
  2.200
  2.210
  2.230
  2.240
  2.250
  2.260
  2.270
  2.280
  2.290
  2.300
  2.300
  2.310
  2.320
  2.320
  2.330
  2.330
  2.340
  2.340
  2.340
  2.350
  2.350
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.268
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  3
  33
  38
  44
  51
  57
  64
  71
  79
  87
  95
  116
  124
  134
  143
  153
  163
  174
  185
  197
  209
  222
  235
  249
  263
  278
  294
  310
  327
  345
  363
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  18
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
Funds from operations, $m
  32
  60
  67
  75
  83
  91
  100
  109
  119
  129
  139
  145
  157
  168
  180
  193
  206
  220
  234
  249
  264
  280
  296
  314
  332
  351
  370
  391
  413
  435
  458
Change in working capital, $m
  -7
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
Cash from operations, $m
  39
  41
  46
  53
  59
  66
  74
  82
  90
  99
  108
  113
  123
  134
  144
  155
  167
  179
  192
  205
  218
  232
  247
  262
  278
  295
  312
  330
  349
  368
  389
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
New CAPEX, $m
  -17
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -36
  -37
  -40
  -44
  -46
  -50
  -54
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -186
Free cash flow, $m
  3
  4
  6
  9
  13
  16
  21
  25
  30
  35
  40
  41
  47
  54
  60
  67
  74
  81
  88
  96
  104
  112
  121
  130
  139
  148
  158
  169
  179
  190
  202
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  42
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  123
  128
  133
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  178
  186
  195
  203
  213
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  27
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  123
  128
  133
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  178
  186
  195
  203
  213
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  30
  64
  70
  77
  84
  92
  100
  108
  116
  125
  134
  139
  149
  159
  170
  181
  192
  204
  217
  229
  243
  257
  272
  287
  303
  319
  337
  355
  374
  394
  415
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -6
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  18
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  57
  44
  49
  55
  61
  67
  74
  80
  88
  95
  99
  107
  115
  124
  134
  143
  153
  163
  174
  185
  197
  209
  222
  235
  249
  263
  278
  293
  310
  327
Discount rate, %
 
  9.00
  9.45
  9.92
  10.42
  10.94
  11.49
  12.06
  12.66
  13.30
  13.96
  14.66
  15.39
  16.16
  16.97
  17.82
  18.71
  19.65
  20.63
  21.66
  22.74
  23.88
  25.07
  26.33
  27.64
  29.03
  30.48
  32.00
  33.60
  35.28
  37.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  52
  37
  37
  37
  36
  35
  33
  31
  29
  26
  22
  19
  16
  14
  11
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. is a distributor of specialty food products in the United States and Canada. The Company operates through food product distribution segment, which is concentrated on the East and West Coasts of the United States. The Company is focused on serving the specific needs of chefs owning and/or operating some of the menu-driven independent restaurants, fine dining establishments, country clubs, hotels, caterers, culinary schools, bakeries, patisseries, chocolatiers, cruise lines, casinos and specialty food stores in the United States and Canada. Its product portfolio consists of imported and domestic specialty food products, such as artisan charcuterie, specialty cheeses, oils and vinegars, truffles, caviar, chocolate and pastry products. The Company also offers a line of center-of-the-plate products, including custom cut beef, seafood and hormone-free poultry, as well as food products, such as cooking oils, butter, eggs, milk and flour.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Chefs' Warehouse (CHEF)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 184.4
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 2.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 25.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 13.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -22.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 163.9%
Total Debt to Equity 171.6%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.5%
Return On Total Capital 0.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.3%
Return On Equity 1.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 48.2%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 25.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.2%
EBITDA Margin 2.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Operating Margin 3.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Net Profit Margin 0.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Effective Tax Rate 50%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

CHEF stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CHEF stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1193 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Chefs' Warehouse. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Chefs' Warehouse. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CHEF stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9%, whose default value for CHEF is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Chefs' Warehouse, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Chefs' Warehouse.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CHEF stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $2 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CHEF stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Chefs' Warehouse.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Chefs' Warehouse. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CHEF stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CHEF are equal to 16.1%.

Life of production assets of 19.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Chefs' Warehouse operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CHEF is equal to 11.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $194 million for Chefs' Warehouse - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27.752 million for Chefs' Warehouse is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Chefs' Warehouse at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ The Chefs' Warehouse Announces Leadership Change   [Oct-17-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ The Chefs' Warehouse Acquires Fells Point Wholesale Meats   [Aug-25-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 3 Stocks That Could Soar More Than Salesforce   [Aug-17-17 03:30PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Chefs' Warehouse Sees More Favorable Trends Ahead   [Aug-10-17 05:22PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Chefs' Warehouse posts 2Q profit   [Aug-09-17 10:19PM  Associated Press]
▶ Chefs' Warehouse reports 1Q loss   [May-09-17 05:50PM  Associated Press]
▶ Chefs' Warehouse posts 4Q profit   [05:01PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Legion Partners Stirs Up Chef's Warehouse   [Feb-18-17 03:06AM  Barrons.com]
▶ Chefs' Warehouse Sees Earnings Take a Hit   [Nov-02-16 11:24PM  at Motley Fool]
Financial statements of CHEF
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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