Intrinsic value of Choice Hotels International - CHH

Previous Close

$75.90

  Intrinsic Value

$9.26

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-88%

Previous close

$75.90

 
Intrinsic value

$9.26

 
Up/down potential

-88%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CHH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.56
  7.60
  7.34
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.54
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
Revenue, $m
  925
  995
  1,068
  1,144
  1,223
  1,305
  1,390
  1,479
  1,572
  1,668
  1,768
  1,872
  1,981
  2,095
  2,213
  2,337
  2,467
  2,602
  2,743
  2,891
  3,046
  3,208
  3,377
  3,555
  3,741
  3,936
  4,140
  4,354
  4,578
  4,813
  5,060
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  734
  787
  843
  900
  960
  1,022
  1,087
  1,154
  1,224
  1,298
  1,366
  1,445
  1,528
  1,615
  1,705
  1,799
  1,898
  2,001
  2,109
  2,222
  2,340
  2,464
  2,593
  2,729
  2,871
  3,020
  3,176
  3,339
  3,511
  3,691
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  686
  734
  787
  843
  900
  960
  1,022
  1,087
  1,154
  1,224
  1,298
  1,366
  1,445
  1,528
  1,615
  1,705
  1,799
  1,898
  2,001
  2,109
  2,222
  2,340
  2,464
  2,593
  2,729
  2,871
  3,020
  3,176
  3,339
  3,511
  3,691
Operating income, $m
  239
  261
  281
  302
  323
  345
  368
  392
  417
  443
  470
  507
  536
  567
  599
  632
  667
  704
  742
  782
  824
  868
  914
  962
  1,012
  1,065
  1,120
  1,178
  1,238
  1,302
  1,369
EBITDA, $m
  251
  277
  297
  318
  340
  363
  386
  411
  437
  463
  491
  520
  550
  582
  615
  649
  685
  723
  762
  803
  846
  891
  938
  988
  1,039
  1,093
  1,150
  1,209
  1,272
  1,337
  1,406
Interest expense (income), $m
  42
  43
  16
  18
  20
  23
  26
  28
  31
  34
  37
  41
  44
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  68
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
  98
  104
  111
  117
  124
  131
  139
Earnings before tax, $m
  200
  219
  265
  284
  303
  322
  343
  364
  386
  409
  433
  466
  492
  519
  548
  577
  608
  641
  675
  710
  747
  786
  827
  869
  914
  960
  1,009
  1,061
  1,114
  1,171
  1,230
Tax expense, $m
  61
  59
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
  98
  104
  110
  117
  126
  133
  140
  148
  156
  164
  173
  182
  192
  202
  212
  223
  235
  247
  259
  273
  286
  301
  316
  332
Net income, $m
  139
  160
  194
  207
  221
  235
  250
  266
  282
  299
  316
  340
  359
  379
  400
  421
  444
  468
  493
  518
  545
  574
  603
  635
  667
  701
  737
  774
  814
  855
  898

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  202
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  852
  699
  751
  804
  860
  917
  977
  1,040
  1,104
  1,172
  1,242
  1,316
  1,392
  1,472
  1,555
  1,643
  1,733
  1,828
  1,928
  2,032
  2,140
  2,254
  2,373
  2,498
  2,629
  2,766
  2,909
  3,059
  3,217
  3,382
  3,556
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  650
  699
  751
  804
  860
  917
  977
  1,040
  1,104
  1,172
  1,242
  1,316
  1,392
  1,472
  1,555
  1,643
  1,733
  1,828
  1,928
  2,032
  2,140
  2,254
  2,373
  2,498
  2,629
  2,766
  2,909
  3,059
  3,217
  3,382
  3,556
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.423
  1.423
  1.422
  1.423
  1.422
  1.423
  1.423
  1.422
  1.424
  1.423
  1.424
  1.422
  1.423
  1.423
  1.423
  1.422
  1.424
  1.423
  1.423
  1.423
  1.423
  1.423
  1.423
  1.423
  1.423
  1.423
  1.423
  1.423
  1.423
  1.423
  1.423
Average production assets, $m
  101
  108
  116
  125
  133
  142
  152
  161
  171
  182
  193
  204
  216
  228
  241
  255
  269
  284
  299
  315
  332
  350
  368
  387
  408
  429
  451
  475
  499
  525
  551
Working capital, $m
  81
  -129
  -139
  -149
  -159
  -170
  -181
  -192
  -204
  -217
  -230
  -243
  -258
  -272
  -288
  -304
  -321
  -338
  -357
  -376
  -396
  -417
  -439
  -462
  -486
  -512
  -538
  -566
  -595
  -626
  -658
Total debt, $m
  841
  307
  354
  402
  452
  503
  557
  614
  672
  733
  796
  862
  931
  1,003
  1,078
  1,156
  1,238
  1,324
  1,413
  1,507
  1,604
  1,707
  1,814
  1,926
  2,044
  2,167
  2,296
  2,432
  2,573
  2,722
  2,878
Total liabilities, $m
  1,164
  629
  676
  724
  774
  825
  879
  936
  994
  1,055
  1,118
  1,184
  1,253
  1,325
  1,400
  1,478
  1,560
  1,646
  1,735
  1,829
  1,926
  2,029
  2,136
  2,248
  2,366
  2,489
  2,618
  2,754
  2,895
  3,044
  3,200
Total equity, $m
  -311
  70
  75
  80
  86
  92
  98
  104
  110
  117
  124
  132
  139
  147
  156
  164
  173
  183
  193
  203
  214
  225
  237
  250
  263
  277
  291
  306
  322
  338
  356
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  853
  699
  751
  804
  860
  917
  977
  1,040
  1,104
  1,172
  1,242
  1,316
  1,392
  1,472
  1,556
  1,642
  1,733
  1,829
  1,928
  2,032
  2,140
  2,254
  2,373
  2,498
  2,629
  2,766
  2,909
  3,060
  3,217
  3,382
  3,556
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -2.704
  4.400
  4.710
  5.000
  5.250
  5.490
  5.700
  5.900
  6.080
  6.250
  6.410
  6.550
  6.690
  6.810
  6.930
  7.040
  7.140
  7.240
  7.330
  7.420
  7.500
  7.570
  7.640
  7.710
  7.780
  7.840
  7.890
  7.950
  8.000
  8.050
  8.090
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.789
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  139
  160
  194
  207
  221
  235
  250
  266
  282
  299
  316
  340
  359
  379
  400
  421
  444
  468
  493
  518
  545
  574
  603
  635
  667
  701
  737
  774
  814
  855
  898
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  12
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
Funds from operations, $m
  144
  175
  209
  223
  238
  253
  268
  284
  301
  319
  337
  354
  374
  394
  416
  438
  462
  487
  512
  539
  568
  597
  628
  660
  694
  730
  767
  806
  847
  890
  935
Change in working capital, $m
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
Cash from operations, $m
  152
  184
  219
  233
  248
  263
  279
  296
  313
  331
  350
  367
  388
  409
  431
  455
  479
  504
  531
  559
  588
  618
  650
  683
  718
  755
  793
  834
  876
  920
  967
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
New CAPEX, $m
  -28
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -98
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
Free cash flow, $m
  54
  169
  204
  217
  231
  245
  260
  276
  292
  309
  327
  343
  362
  382
  403
  425
  448
  472
  497
  523
  550
  578
  608
  640
  672
  707
  743
  780
  820
  861
  905
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  25
  -533
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  89
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -23
  422
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  2
  -111
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  89
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  55
  59
  250
  265
  281
  297
  314
  332
  351
  370
  390
  409
  431
  454
  478
  503
  530
  557
  586
  616
  648
  681
  715
  752
  790
  830
  872
  916
  962
  1,010
  1,061
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -85
  -582
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  201
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -322
  245
  260
  275
  292
  308
  326
  344
  363
  383
  402
  423
  446
  470
  495
  521
  548
  576
  606
  637
  669
  704
  739
  777
  816
  857
  901
  946
  994
  1,043
Discount rate, %
 
  12.70
  13.34
  14.00
  14.70
  15.44
  16.21
  17.02
  17.87
  18.76
  19.70
  20.69
  21.72
  22.81
  23.95
  25.15
  26.40
  27.72
  29.11
  30.56
  32.09
  33.70
  35.38
  37.15
  39.01
  40.96
  43.01
  45.16
  47.41
  49.79
  52.27
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -286
  191
  175
  159
  142
  125
  108
  92
  77
  63
  51
  40
  31
  23
  17
  12
  9
  6
  4
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Choice Hotels International, Inc. is a hotel franchisor. The Company's segments include Hotel Franchising, SkyTouch Technology and Corporate & Other. It franchises lodging properties under brand names, including Comfort Inn, Comfort Suites, Quality, Clarion, Sleep Inn, Econo Lodge, Rodeway Inn, MainStay Suites, Suburban Extended Stay Hotel, Cambria hotels & suites, and Ascend Hotel Collection. The Company had 6,514 hotels open and 775 hotels under construction, awaiting conversion or approved for development, as of December 31, 2016, representing 516,122 rooms open and 62,547 rooms under construction, awaiting conversion or approved for development in 50 states, the District of Columbia and over 40 countries and territories outside the United States. Its domestic franchising operations are conducted through direct franchising relationships, while its international franchise operations are conducted through a combination of direct franchising and master franchising relationships.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Choice Hotels International (CHH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 30.7
Price to Sales 4.6
Price to Book -13.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 28.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 34.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -3.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 202
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -270.1%
Total Debt to Equity -270.4%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 21.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.3%
Return On Total Capital 29.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.6%
Return On Equity -39.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -32.7%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 43.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 43.9%
EBITDA Margin 27.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.2%
Operating Margin 25.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 21.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22%
Net Profit Margin 15%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.4%
Effective Tax Rate 30.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.5%
Payout Ratio 33.1%

CHH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CHH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $925 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Choice Hotels International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Choice Hotels International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CHH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.7%, whose default value for CHH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Choice Hotels International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Choice Hotels International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CHH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 73.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CHH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.1% for Choice Hotels International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Choice Hotels International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CHH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CHH are equal to 10.9%.

Life of production assets of 15 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Choice Hotels International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CHH is equal to -13%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-311 million for Choice Hotels International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 56.512 million for Choice Hotels International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Choice Hotels International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Choice Hotels spending millions to overhaul its reservation system   [Nov-06-17 03:50PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Choice Hotels tops Street 3Q forecasts   [08:11AM  Associated Press]
▶ Ascend Hotel Collection Adds 13 Hotels in October   [Oct-31-17 12:36PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Choice Hotels to Develop New Cambria Hotel in Baltimore   [Oct-26-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Cambria Hotels Breaks Ground in South Boston, Mass.   [Oct-11-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Cambria Hotels Opens in New Orleans   [08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ How Airbnb plans to use AI to make travel more personalized for you   [Oct-09-17 10:31AM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ New all-suites hotel slated for Fort Mill development   [Sep-27-17 04:45PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Comfort Hotel Brand Asks America "What's Your Waffle?"   [Aug-24-17 04:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Cambria Hotels Breaks Ground in Mount Pleasant, S.C.   [Aug-21-17 08:55AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Choice Hotels eyes expansion in D.C. area with its upscale brands   [Aug-04-17 02:35PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Choice Hotels beats Street 2Q forecasts   [Aug-02-17 10:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Choice Hotels beats Street 2Q forecasts   [08:06AM  Associated Press]
▶ Choice Hotels queues up leadership succession   [Jul-20-17 03:07PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ The Ascend Hotel Collection Welcomes The Garrison Hotel   [Jul-19-17 08:55AM  PR Newswire]
Financial statements of CHH
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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