Intrinsic value of Choice Hotels International - CHH

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$65.60

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$65.60

 
Intrinsic value

$8.62

 
Up/down potential

-87%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CHH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.56
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  925
  944
  965
  990
  1,018
  1,049
  1,083
  1,119
  1,159
  1,202
  1,248
  1,298
  1,351
  1,407
  1,466
  1,529
  1,596
  1,667
  1,742
  1,822
  1,905
  1,994
  2,087
  2,185
  2,289
  2,397
  2,512
  2,633
  2,760
  2,894
  3,034
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  696
  712
  730
  750
  773
  798
  824
  854
  885
  919
  947
  985
  1,026
  1,070
  1,116
  1,165
  1,216
  1,271
  1,329
  1,390
  1,454
  1,522
  1,594
  1,669
  1,749
  1,833
  1,921
  2,013
  2,111
  2,213
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  686
  696
  712
  730
  750
  773
  798
  824
  854
  885
  919
  947
  985
  1,026
  1,070
  1,116
  1,165
  1,216
  1,271
  1,329
  1,390
  1,454
  1,522
  1,594
  1,669
  1,749
  1,833
  1,921
  2,013
  2,111
  2,213
Operating income, $m
  239
  247
  253
  260
  267
  276
  285
  295
  306
  317
  330
  351
  365
  381
  397
  414
  432
  451
  471
  493
  516
  539
  565
  591
  619
  649
  680
  712
  747
  783
  821
EBITDA, $m
  251
  262
  268
  275
  283
  291
  301
  311
  322
  334
  347
  361
  375
  391
  407
  425
  444
  463
  484
  506
  529
  554
  580
  607
  636
  666
  698
  731
  767
  804
  843
Interest expense (income), $m
  42
  43
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
Earnings before tax, $m
  200
  205
  239
  245
  252
  259
  268
  276
  286
  296
  308
  327
  340
  353
  368
  383
  399
  416
  434
  453
  473
  494
  517
  540
  565
  591
  619
  648
  678
  710
  744
Tax expense, $m
  61
  55
  65
  66
  68
  70
  72
  75
  77
  80
  83
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  122
  128
  133
  140
  146
  153
  160
  167
  175
  183
  192
  201
Net income, $m
  139
  149
  175
  179
  184
  189
  195
  202
  209
  216
  224
  239
  248
  258
  268
  280
  291
  304
  317
  331
  345
  361
  377
  394
  413
  432
  452
  473
  495
  518
  543

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  202
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  852
  663
  678
  696
  715
  737
  761
  787
  815
  845
  877
  912
  949
  988
  1,030
  1,075
  1,122
  1,172
  1,225
  1,280
  1,339
  1,401
  1,467
  1,536
  1,608
  1,685
  1,765
  1,850
  1,940
  2,033
  2,132
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  650
  663
  678
  696
  715
  737
  761
  787
  815
  845
  877
  912
  949
  988
  1,030
  1,075
  1,122
  1,172
  1,225
  1,280
  1,339
  1,401
  1,467
  1,536
  1,608
  1,685
  1,765
  1,850
  1,940
  2,033
  2,132
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.423
  1.424
  1.423
  1.422
  1.424
  1.423
  1.423
  1.422
  1.422
  1.422
  1.423
  1.423
  1.424
  1.424
  1.423
  1.422
  1.422
  1.422
  1.422
  1.423
  1.423
  1.423
  1.423
  1.423
  1.424
  1.423
  1.423
  1.423
  1.423
  1.424
  1.423
Average production assets, $m
  101
  103
  105
  108
  111
  114
  118
  122
  126
  131
  136
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
  217
  227
  238
  249
  261
  274
  287
  301
  315
  331
Working capital, $m
  81
  -123
  -125
  -129
  -132
  -136
  -141
  -146
  -151
  -156
  -162
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -191
  -199
  -208
  -217
  -227
  -237
  -248
  -259
  -271
  -284
  -298
  -312
  -327
  -342
  -359
  -376
  -394
Total debt, $m
  841
  275
  288
  304
  322
  341
  363
  386
  411
  438
  468
  499
  532
  568
  605
  645
  688
  733
  780
  830
  883
  939
  998
  1,060
  1,125
  1,194
  1,267
  1,343
  1,424
  1,508
  1,597
Total liabilities, $m
  1,164
  597
  610
  626
  644
  663
  685
  708
  733
  760
  790
  821
  854
  890
  927
  967
  1,010
  1,055
  1,102
  1,152
  1,205
  1,261
  1,320
  1,382
  1,447
  1,516
  1,589
  1,665
  1,746
  1,830
  1,919
Total equity, $m
  -311
  66
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  79
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  168
  177
  185
  194
  203
  213
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  853
  663
  678
  696
  716
  737
  761
  787
  814
  844
  878
  912
  949
  989
  1,030
  1,074
  1,122
  1,172
  1,224
  1,280
  1,339
  1,401
  1,467
  1,536
  1,608
  1,684
  1,766
  1,850
  1,940
  2,033
  2,132
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -2.704
  4.140
  4.250
  4.370
  4.500
  4.630
  4.770
  4.910
  5.050
  5.190
  5.330
  5.470
  5.610
  5.740
  5.870
  6.000
  6.130
  6.250
  6.370
  6.480
  6.600
  6.700
  6.800
  6.900
  7.000
  7.090
  7.180
  7.260
  7.340
  7.420
  7.490
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.789
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  139
  149
  175
  179
  184
  189
  195
  202
  209
  216
  224
  239
  248
  258
  268
  280
  291
  304
  317
  331
  345
  361
  377
  394
  413
  432
  452
  473
  495
  518
  543
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  12
  15
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Funds from operations, $m
  144
  164
  190
  194
  199
  205
  211
  218
  225
  233
  241
  248
  258
  268
  279
  291
  303
  316
  330
  344
  359
  375
  392
  410
  429
  449
  470
  492
  515
  540
  565
Change in working capital, $m
  -8
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
Cash from operations, $m
  152
  167
  192
  197
  203
  209
  215
  223
  230
  239
  247
  255
  265
  275
  287
  299
  312
  325
  339
  354
  370
  387
  404
  423
  443
  463
  485
  508
  532
  557
  583
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
New CAPEX, $m
  -28
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -98
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -18
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -22
  -24
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
Free cash flow, $m
  54
  158
  183
  188
  193
  198
  204
  211
  218
  225
  234
  240
  250
  260
  270
  281
  293
  306
  319
  333
  348
  363
  380
  397
  415
  435
  455
  476
  499
  522
  547
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  25
  -565
  14
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  73
  76
  80
  85
  89
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -23
  785
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  2
  220
  14
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  73
  76
  80
  85
  89
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  55
  -407
  197
  203
  210
  218
  226
  234
  243
  253
  263
  272
  283
  295
  308
  321
  336
  351
  366
  383
  401
  419
  439
  459
  481
  504
  527
  553
  579
  607
  636
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -85
  -578
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  201
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  195
  202
  208
  215
  223
  231
  240
  250
  260
  268
  279
  291
  304
  317
  331
  346
  361
  378
  395
  413
  432
  452
  474
  496
  519
  544
  570
  597
  626
Discount rate, %
 
  12.70
  13.34
  14.00
  14.70
  15.44
  16.21
  17.02
  17.87
  18.76
  19.70
  20.69
  21.72
  22.81
  23.95
  25.15
  26.40
  27.72
  29.11
  30.56
  32.09
  33.70
  35.38
  37.15
  39.01
  40.96
  43.01
  45.16
  47.41
  49.79
  52.27
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  152
  136
  120
  105
  91
  77
  64
  53
  43
  34
  26
  20
  15
  11
  8
  5
  4
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Choice Hotels International, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a hotel franchisor worldwide. It operates in two segments, Hotel Franchising and SkyTouch Technology. The company franchises lodging properties under the proprietary brand names Comfort Inn, Comfort Suites, Quality, Clarion, Sleep Inn, Econo Lodge, Rodeway Inn, MainStay Suites, Suburban Extended Stay Hotel, Cambria hotels and suites, and Ascend Hotel Collection. It also develops and markets cloud-based technology products, including inventory management, pricing, and connectivity to third party channels and hoteliers that are not under franchise agreements with the company; and provides onsite and remote installation, training, and 24/7 phone support services. As of November 2, 2016, the company franchised approximately 6,400 hotels comprising approximately 500,000 rooms. Choice Hotels International, Inc. was founded in 1981 and is based in Rockville, Maryland.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Choice Hotels International (CHH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.6
Price to Sales 4
Price to Book -11.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 24.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 29.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -3.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 202
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -270.1%
Total Debt to Equity -270.4%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 21.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.3%
Return On Total Capital 29.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.6%
Return On Equity -39.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -32.7%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 43.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 43.9%
EBITDA Margin 27.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.2%
Operating Margin 25.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 21.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22%
Net Profit Margin 15%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.4%
Effective Tax Rate 30.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.5%
Payout Ratio 33.1%

CHH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CHH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $925 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Choice Hotels International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Choice Hotels International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CHH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.7%, whose default value for CHH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Choice Hotels International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Choice Hotels International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CHH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 73.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CHH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.1% for Choice Hotels International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Choice Hotels International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CHH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CHH are equal to 10.9%.

Life of production assets of 15 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Choice Hotels International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CHH is equal to -13%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-311 million for Choice Hotels International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 56.332 million for Choice Hotels International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Choice Hotels International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.7 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ New Cambria hotel opens atop a Chicago Loop theater   [May-25-17 03:55PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Have an empty office building? This hotel company might want to buy it.   [May-24-17 12:31PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Dallas developer sells Houston's historic Petroleum Building to high-end hotelier   [May-16-17 03:35PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ MainStay Suites Launches New Prototype   [May-11-17 12:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Choice Hotels beats 1Q profit forecasts   [09:14AM  Associated Press]
▶ Cambria Hotels Debuts in California   [May-02-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Ascend Hotel Collection Opens Newest enVision Hotel   [Apr-10-17 10:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Comfort and Sleep Inn Accelerate New Construction Growth   [Mar-22-17 10:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Choice Hotels Welcomes First-of-its-Kind Sleep Inn Hotel   [Mar-08-17 01:43PM  PR Newswire]
▶ 10 Largest Hotel Chains In The US   [Feb-07-17 12:15PM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of CHH Financial statements of CHH Annual reports of CHH
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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