Intrinsic value of Coherus BioSciences - CHRS

Previous Close

$13.70

  Intrinsic Value

$0.09

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  Rating & Target

str. sell

-99%

Previous close

$13.70

 
Intrinsic value

$0.09

 
Up/down potential

-99%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CHRS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  533.33
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  190
  194
  198
  203
  209
  215
  222
  230
  238
  247
  256
  267
  277
  289
  301
  314
  328
  343
  358
  374
  391
  410
  429
  449
  470
  492
  516
  541
  567
  594
  623
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  321
  329
  337
  347
  357
  369
  381
  395
  409
  425
  442
  460
  479
  499
  521
  544
  568
  593
  620
  649
  679
  710
  744
  779
  816
  855
  896
  940
  985
  1,033
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  209
  214
  220
  225
  231
  237
  242
  249
  255
  261
  268
  274
  281
  288
  295
  303
  310
  318
  326
  334
  343
  351
  360
  369
  378
  388
  397
  407
  417
  428
Total operating expenses, $m
  306
  530
  543
  557
  572
  588
  606
  623
  644
  664
  686
  710
  734
  760
  787
  816
  847
  878
  911
  946
  983
  1,022
  1,061
  1,104
  1,148
  1,194
  1,243
  1,293
  1,347
  1,402
  1,461
Operating income, $m
  -116
  -337
  -345
  -353
  -363
  -373
  -383
  -394
  -405
  -417
  -430
  -443
  -457
  -471
  -486
  -502
  -518
  -536
  -553
  -572
  -592
  -612
  -633
  -655
  -678
  -702
  -727
  -753
  -780
  -808
  -838
EBITDA, $m
  -113
  -334
  -342
  -350
  -360
  -369
  -380
  -390
  -402
  -414
  -426
  -439
  -453
  -467
  -482
  -498
  -514
  -531
  -548
  -567
  -586
  -606
  -627
  -649
  -671
  -695
  -720
  -745
  -772
  -800
  -829
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  14
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
Earnings before tax, $m
  -128
  -351
  -344
  -352
  -362
  -372
  -382
  -394
  -405
  -418
  -431
  -444
  -458
  -473
  -488
  -505
  -522
  -539
  -558
  -577
  -597
  -618
  -639
  -662
  -686
  -711
  -736
  -763
  -791
  -820
  -851
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -127
  -351
  -344
  -352
  -362
  -372
  -382
  -394
  -405
  -418
  -431
  -444
  -458
  -473
  -488
  -505
  -522
  -539
  -558
  -577
  -597
  -618
  -639
  -662
  -686
  -711
  -736
  -763
  -791
  -820
  -851

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  125
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  178
  54
  55
  57
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  69
  72
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  91
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  120
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  53
  54
  55
  57
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  69
  72
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  91
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  120
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.585
  3.593
  3.600
  3.561
  3.603
  3.583
  3.581
  3.594
  3.606
  3.580
  3.556
  3.608
  3.597
  3.568
  3.583
  3.568
  3.604
  3.573
  3.580
  3.596
  3.587
  3.596
  3.575
  3.592
  3.588
  3.591
  3.583
  3.583
  3.589
  3.578
  3.580
Average production assets, $m
  14
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
Working capital, $m
  105
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
Total debt, $m
  100
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -3
  -1
  1
  3
  5
  7
  10
  13
  16
  19
  22
  25
  29
  33
  37
  41
  46
  51
  56
  61
  67
  73
  79
  85
  92
  99
Total liabilities, $m
  158
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
Total equity, $m
  21
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  179
  54
  56
  57
  58
  60
  62
  64
  67
  69
  71
  74
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  131
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  173
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.762
  -1.540
  -1.310
  -1.050
  -0.770
  -0.490
  -0.190
  0.110
  0.420
  0.730
  1.030
  1.330
  1.630
  1.930
  2.210
  2.500
  2.770
  3.030
  3.290
  3.540
  3.780
  4.010
  4.230
  4.450
  4.650
  4.850
  5.040
  5.220
  5.400
  5.560
  5.720
Adjusted equity ratio
  -1.962
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -127
  -351
  -344
  -352
  -362
  -372
  -382
  -394
  -405
  -418
  -431
  -444
  -458
  -473
  -488
  -505
  -522
  -539
  -558
  -577
  -597
  -618
  -639
  -662
  -686
  -711
  -736
  -763
  -791
  -820
  -851
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
Funds from operations, $m
  -412
  -348
  -341
  -349
  -359
  -369
  -379
  -390
  -402
  -414
  -427
  -440
  -454
  -469
  -484
  -500
  -517
  -534
  -552
  -571
  -591
  -612
  -633
  -656
  -679
  -704
  -729
  -755
  -783
  -812
  -842
Change in working capital, $m
  -159
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  -253
  -347
  -340
  -349
  -358
  -368
  -378
  -389
  -401
  -413
  -426
  -439
  -453
  -468
  -483
  -499
  -515
  -533
  -551
  -570
  -589
  -610
  -631
  -654
  -677
  -701
  -726
  -753
  -780
  -809
  -839
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -7
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
Free cash flow, $m
  -260
  -350
  -343
  -352
  -362
  -371
  -382
  -393
  -405
  -417
  -430
  -443
  -458
  -472
  -488
  -504
  -521
  -538
  -557
  -576
  -596
  -617
  -639
  -661
  -685
  -709
  -735
  -762
  -790
  -819
  -849
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  99
  -108
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  128
  460
  344
  353
  362
  372
  383
  394
  406
  418
  431
  444
  458
  473
  489
  505
  522
  540
  558
  577
  597
  618
  640
  663
  686
  711
  737
  764
  792
  821
  851
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  226
  352
  345
  354
  363
  374
  385
  396
  408
  420
  433
  447
  461
  476
  492
  508
  525
  544
  562
  581
  601
  623
  645
  668
  691
  717
  743
  770
  799
  828
  858
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -33
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -27
  -460
  -344
  -353
  -362
  -372
  -383
  -394
  -406
  -418
  -431
  -444
  -458
  -473
  -489
  -505
  -522
  -540
  -558
  -577
  -597
  -618
  -640
  -663
  -686
  -711
  -737
  -764
  -792
  -821
  -851
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  125
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -334
  -342
  -351
  -360
  -370
  -380
  -391
  -403
  -415
  -428
  -441
  -455
  -469
  -485
  -501
  -517
  -535
  -553
  -572
  -592
  -612
  -634
  -656
  -679
  -704
  -729
  -756
  -783
  -812
  -842
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -320
  -313
  -305
  -297
  -287
  -276
  -264
  -252
  -238
  -224
  -209
  -194
  -179
  -163
  -147
  -131
  -116
  -102
  -88
  -75
  -63
  -53
  -43
  -35
  -27
  -21
  -16
  -12
  -9
  -6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  6.8
  0.9
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Coherus BioSciences, Inc. is a late-stage clinical biologics platform company. The Company is engaged in the business of developing and commercializing biosimilar products. The Company's business is organized around therapeutic franchises, including Oncology biosimilar candidates pegfilgrastim (Neulasta) and bevacizumab (Avastin); Immunology (Anti-TNF) biosimilar candidates etanercept (Enbrel) and adalimumab (Humira); Ophthalmology biosimilar candidate ranibizumab (Lucentis), and Multiple sclerosis small molecule therapeutic candidate, CHS-131. The Company's product candidate pipeline includes CHS-1701, CHS-5217, CHS-0214, CHS-1420 and CHS-3351. Its CHS-1701 is a Granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) product candidate. Its Bevacizumab is a recombinant humanized monoclonal antibody that blocks angiogenesis by inhibiting vascular endothelial growth factor A (VEGF-A). Its Etanercept (Enbrel) is the reference product for CHS-0214.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Coherus BioSciences (CHRS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4.9
Price to Sales 3.3
Price to Book 29.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -2.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -2.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 533.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 16.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 476.2%
Total Debt to Equity 476.2%
Interest Coverage -17
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -61.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -82.6%
Return On Total Capital -220.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -517.3%
Return On Equity -1693.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -1040.2%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin -62.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -359.8%
Operating Margin -61.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -333.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -67.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -364.9%
Net Profit Margin -66.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -363.6%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

CHRS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CHRS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $190 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Coherus BioSciences. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Coherus BioSciences. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CHRS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CHRS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Coherus BioSciences, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Coherus BioSciences.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CHRS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 165.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $204 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CHRS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 14% for Coherus BioSciences.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Coherus BioSciences. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CHRS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CHRS are equal to 7.1%.

Life of production assets of 4.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Coherus BioSciences operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CHRS is equal to -10.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $21 million for Coherus BioSciences - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 57.936 million for Coherus BioSciences is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Coherus BioSciences at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Coherus Bio Jumps on Private Placement   [Aug-21-17 12:39PM  24/7 Wall St.]
▶ Coherus BioSciences reports 2Q loss   [Aug-07-17 11:58PM  Associated Press]
▶ Roundtable: 1 Underdog Stock I'm Watching   [Jul-17-17 10:07AM  Motley Fool]
▶ After FDA delay, Peninsula 'biosimilar' company sheds third of workforce   [Jun-28-17 05:25PM  American City Business Journals]
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▶ Coherus Dives To Year-Low After Amgen-Rivaling Drug Sees Delay   [04:07PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Story Stocks from Briefing.com   [12:46PM  Briefing.com]
▶ Biotech Movers: Coherus, XBiotech, Flexion   [09:22AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ [$$] AbbVie: It's the Pipeline, Not the Coherus Ruling   [May-18-17 11:17AM  Barrons.com]
▶ AbbVie Loses Key Humira Patent In Battle With Small-Cap Biotech   [May-17-17 05:02PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Biotech And Pharma Industry And Stock News   [12:11PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ AbbVie Stock Lower on Humira Patent Ruling   [10:53AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Coherus BioSciences Prevails in 135 IPR Decision   [May-16-17 07:29PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Coherus BioSciences reports 1Q loss   [May-08-17 05:21PM  Associated Press]
▶ Coherus BioSciences reports 4Q loss   [04:12PM  Associated Press]
▶ Statement by Coherus CEO Regarding Biosimilars User Fees   [Mar-02-17 04:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Why Coherus Biosciences Is Falling Today   [Feb-08-17 12:03PM  at Motley Fool]
Financial statements of CHRS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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