Intrinsic value of Chuy's Holdings - CHUY

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$28.45

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$28.45

 
Intrinsic value

$16.67

 
Up/down potential

-41%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CHUY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  15.33
  11.30
  10.67
  10.10
  9.59
  9.13
  8.72
  8.35
  8.01
  7.71
  7.44
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
Revenue, $m
  331
  368
  408
  449
  492
  537
  584
  632
  683
  736
  791
  847
  907
  968
  1,032
  1,098
  1,168
  1,240
  1,315
  1,393
  1,474
  1,559
  1,648
  1,741
  1,837
  1,938
  2,044
  2,155
  2,270
  2,391
  2,518
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  318
  352
  387
  424
  462
  502
  544
  588
  633
  680
  726
  777
  829
  884
  941
  1,000
  1,062
  1,126
  1,193
  1,263
  1,336
  1,412
  1,491
  1,574
  1,661
  1,751
  1,846
  1,945
  2,049
  2,157
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
Total operating expenses, $m
  306
  340
  374
  410
  447
  486
  526
  569
  614
  659
  707
  754
  805
  858
  914
  971
  1,031
  1,094
  1,159
  1,227
  1,297
  1,371
  1,448
  1,528
  1,612
  1,700
  1,791
  1,887
  1,987
  2,092
  2,201
Operating income, $m
  24
  29
  34
  39
  45
  51
  57
  63
  70
  77
  84
  94
  102
  110
  118
  127
  136
  146
  156
  166
  177
  188
  200
  212
  225
  239
  253
  268
  283
  300
  317
EBITDA, $m
  39
  46
  53
  60
  67
  75
  82
  91
  99
  108
  118
  128
  138
  148
  159
  171
  183
  195
  208
  221
  235
  250
  265
  282
  298
  316
  334
  353
  374
  395
  417
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
Earnings before tax, $m
  24
  29
  34
  39
  44
  49
  55
  61
  67
  74
  80
  90
  97
  105
  112
  121
  129
  138
  147
  157
  167
  178
  189
  201
  213
  225
  239
  253
  267
  282
  298
Tax expense, $m
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
Net income, $m
  17
  21
  25
  28
  32
  36
  40
  45
  49
  54
  59
  66
  71
  76
  82
  88
  94
  101
  108
  115
  122
  130
  138
  146
  155
  165
  174
  184
  195
  206
  218

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  241
  253
  280
  308
  337
  368
  400
  434
  469
  505
  542
  581
  622
  664
  708
  753
  801
  850
  902
  955
  1,011
  1,069
  1,130
  1,194
  1,260
  1,330
  1,402
  1,478
  1,557
  1,640
  1,727
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  227
  253
  280
  308
  337
  368
  400
  434
  469
  505
  542
  581
  622
  664
  708
  753
  801
  850
  902
  955
  1,011
  1,069
  1,130
  1,194
  1,260
  1,330
  1,402
  1,478
  1,557
  1,640
  1,727
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.458
  1.455
  1.457
  1.458
  1.460
  1.459
  1.460
  1.456
  1.456
  1.457
  1.459
  1.458
  1.458
  1.458
  1.458
  1.458
  1.458
  1.459
  1.458
  1.459
  1.458
  1.458
  1.458
  1.458
  1.458
  1.457
  1.458
  1.458
  1.458
  1.458
  1.458
Average production assets, $m
  173
  192
  212
  234
  256
  280
  304
  330
  356
  383
  412
  442
  472
  504
  538
  572
  608
  646
  685
  726
  768
  812
  859
  907
  957
  1,010
  1,065
  1,123
  1,183
  1,246
  1,312
Working capital, $m
  0
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -106
Total debt, $m
  0
  9
  19
  30
  41
  52
  64
  76
  89
  103
  117
  131
  146
  162
  178
  195
  212
  231
  250
  269
  290
  312
  334
  358
  382
  408
  435
  463
  492
  523
  555
Total liabilities, $m
  84
  93
  103
  114
  125
  136
  148
  160
  173
  187
  201
  215
  230
  246
  262
  279
  296
  315
  334
  353
  374
  396
  418
  442
  466
  492
  519
  547
  576
  607
  639
Total equity, $m
  157
  159
  176
  194
  213
  232
  252
  273
  295
  318
  342
  366
  392
  418
  446
  475
  505
  536
  568
  602
  637
  674
  712
  752
  794
  838
  883
  931
  981
  1,033
  1,088
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  241
  252
  279
  308
  338
  368
  400
  433
  468
  505
  543
  581
  622
  664
  708
  754
  801
  851
  902
  955
  1,011
  1,070
  1,130
  1,194
  1,260
  1,330
  1,402
  1,478
  1,557
  1,640
  1,727
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.060
  0.110
  0.150
  0.190
  0.230
  0.250
  0.280
  0.300
  0.320
  0.340
  0.360
  0.370
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  17
  21
  25
  28
  32
  36
  40
  45
  49
  54
  59
  66
  71
  76
  82
  88
  94
  101
  108
  115
  122
  130
  138
  146
  155
  165
  174
  184
  195
  206
  218
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  34
  36
  38
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
Funds from operations, $m
  52
  38
  43
  48
  54
  60
  66
  72
  79
  85
  93
  99
  107
  115
  123
  132
  141
  150
  160
  170
  181
  192
  204
  216
  228
  242
  256
  270
  285
  301
  318
Change in working capital, $m
  9
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
Cash from operations, $m
  43
  54
  45
  50
  56
  62
  68
  74
  81
  88
  95
  102
  109
  117
  126
  135
  144
  153
  163
  173
  184
  195
  207
  220
  232
  246
  260
  275
  290
  306
  323
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
New CAPEX, $m
  -42
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -42
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -119
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -161
Free cash flow, $m
  1
  22
  10
  12
  15
  19
  22
  26
  29
  33
  37
  41
  45
  49
  54
  59
  64
  69
  75
  80
  86
  93
  99
  106
  113
  120
  128
  136
  144
  153
  162
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  4
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  5
  31
  20
  23
  26
  30
  34
  38
  42
  46
  51
  55
  60
  65
  70
  76
  82
  88
  94
  100
  107
  114
  122
  129
  137
  146
  155
  164
  174
  184
  194
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -24
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  29
  3
  5
  8
  11
  14
  17
  20
  24
  27
  30
  34
  38
  43
  47
  52
  56
  61
  66
  72
  77
  83
  89
  96
  102
  109
  116
  124
  131
  140
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  28
  2
  4
  6
  8
  10
  11
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
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Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
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  100.0

Chuy’s Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiary, Chuy’s Opco, Inc., owns and operates restaurants under the Chuy’s name in Texas and 14 states in the southeastern and midwestern United States. The company’s restaurants provide Mexican and Tex Mex inspired food. As of March 1, 2016, it owned and operated 70 full-service restaurants in 14 states. The company was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Chuy's Holdings (CHUY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 28.2
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 3.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 479.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 15.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 31.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Return On Total Capital 11.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Return On Equity 11.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 74%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 73.1%
EBITDA Margin 11.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Operating Margin 7.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Net Profit Margin 5.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Effective Tax Rate 29.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

CHUY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CHUY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $331 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Chuy's Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Chuy's Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CHUY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CHUY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Chuy's Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Chuy's Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CHUY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $21 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CHUY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Chuy's Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Chuy's Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CHUY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CHUY are equal to 52.1%.

Life of production assets of 13.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Chuy's Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CHUY is equal to -4.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $157 million for Chuy's Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 16.845 million for Chuy's Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Chuy's Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 3 Top Small-Cap Stocks to Buy Heading into April   [Mar-30-17 03:05PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Chuy's Holdings' Slowing Growth in 4 Charts   [Mar-21-17 05:22PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Chuy's Holdings' Slowing Growth in 4 Charts   [05:22PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Love Growth? Then You'll Love These 3 Stocks   [Mar-19-17 08:09AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Love Growth? Then You'll Love These 3 Stocks   [08:09AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Is Chuy's Holdings' Growth Story Running Out of Steam?   [Mar-12-17 07:42AM  Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Stocks You Can Buy On Sale   [Mar-03-17 11:10AM  Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Stocks You Can Buy On Sale   [11:10AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Chuy's Breaks Its Comps-Growth Streak   [05:25PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Chuy's Breaks Its Comps-Growth Streak   [05:25PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ What to Watch When Chuy's Holdings Reports Earnings   [Feb-14-17 12:32PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Is Chuys Holdings Inc (CHUY) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-19-16 10:57PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Inside Chuys new south Charlotte restaurant (PHOTOS)   [Dec-13-16 09:40AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Why Chuy Holdings, Inc. Stock Jumped 10% in November   [Dec-04-16 06:35AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Why I Own Chuy's Holdings Inc Stock   [Oct-21-16 02:41PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ What Chuy's Management Doesn't Want Shareholders to Focus On   [Sep-23-16 05:11PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ 5 Stocks With Amazon-Like Growth Potential   [Sep-22-16 12:45PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Could Chuy's Earnings Really Drop This Quarter?   [Jul-19-16 12:44PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Chuy's mourns death of board member   [Jun-22-16 09:37AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Oh, So This Is Where Chipotle Customers Are Eating   [May-12-16 11:23AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Chuy's Sizzles on Expansion-Led Growth   [May-03-16 04:50PM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of CHUY Financial statements of CHUY
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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