Intrinsic value of Cinedigm Cl A - CIDM

Previous Close

$1.34

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$1.34

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CIDM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -13.46
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  90
  92
  94
  96
  99
  102
  105
  109
  113
  117
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  170
  177
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  233
  244
  256
  269
  282
  295
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  112
  115
  118
  121
  125
  129
  133
  138
  143
  148
  153
  159
  166
  173
  180
  188
  197
  205
  215
  225
  235
  246
  258
  270
  283
  296
  310
  325
  341
  358
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  82
  112
  115
  118
  121
  125
  129
  133
  138
  143
  148
  153
  159
  166
  173
  180
  188
  197
  205
  215
  225
  235
  246
  258
  270
  283
  296
  310
  325
  341
  358
Operating income, $m
  8
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
EBITDA, $m
  41
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
Interest expense (income), $m
  16
  12
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  29
Earnings before tax, $m
  -15
  -32
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -15
  -32
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  151
  141
  144
  148
  152
  156
  162
  167
  173
  179
  186
  194
  202
  210
  219
  228
  238
  249
  260
  272
  284
  298
  311
  326
  342
  358
  375
  393
  412
  432
  453
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  138
  141
  144
  148
  152
  156
  162
  167
  173
  179
  186
  194
  202
  210
  219
  228
  238
  249
  260
  272
  284
  298
  311
  326
  342
  358
  375
  393
  412
  432
  453
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.652
  0.652
  0.653
  0.649
  0.651
  0.654
  0.648
  0.653
  0.653
  0.654
  0.651
  0.649
  0.649
  0.652
  0.653
  0.654
  0.651
  0.651
  0.654
  0.651
  0.651
  0.651
  0.653
  0.653
  0.652
  0.651
  0.651
  0.651
  0.653
  0.653
  0.651
Average production assets, $m
  71
  72
  74
  75
  78
  80
  82
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  145
  152
  159
  166
  174
  183
  191
  201
  210
  220
  231
Working capital, $m
  -16
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
Total debt, $m
  140
  47
  50
  53
  57
  61
  65
  70
  76
  81
  88
  94
  101
  109
  117
  125
  134
  144
  154
  165
  176
  188
  200
  213
  227
  242
  257
  274
  291
  309
  328
Total liabilities, $m
  221
  127
  130
  133
  137
  141
  145
  150
  156
  161
  168
  174
  181
  189
  197
  205
  214
  224
  234
  245
  256
  268
  280
  293
  307
  322
  337
  354
  371
  389
  408
Total equity, $m
  -69
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  152
  141
  144
  148
  152
  157
  161
  167
  173
  179
  187
  193
  201
  210
  219
  228
  238
  249
  260
  272
  284
  298
  311
  326
  341
  358
  374
  393
  412
  432
  453
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -2.029
  3.320
  3.450
  3.580
  3.730
  3.890
  4.050
  4.210
  4.380
  4.540
  4.710
  4.870
  5.030
  5.190
  5.340
  5.490
  5.640
  5.780
  5.920
  6.060
  6.190
  6.310
  6.430
  6.550
  6.660
  6.760
  6.870
  6.960
  7.060
  7.150
  7.230
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.594
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -15
  -32
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  33
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
Funds from operations, $m
  35
  -17
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  32
  -17
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
Free cash flow, $m
  32
  -32
  -26
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -99
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -48
  -80
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  115
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -44
  35
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  44
  47
  49
  51
  55
  58
  60
  64
  67
  71
  75
  78
  83
  87
  91
  96
  101
  107
  112
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -13
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -3
  -115
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -113
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -81
Discount rate, %
 
  12.90
  13.55
  14.22
  14.93
  15.68
  16.46
  17.29
  18.15
  19.06
  20.01
  21.01
  22.06
  23.17
  24.32
  25.54
  26.82
  28.16
  29.57
  31.05
  32.60
  34.23
  35.94
  37.74
  39.62
  41.60
  43.68
  45.87
  48.16
  50.57
  53.10
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -100
  -18
  -16
  -14
  -12
  -10
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  17.8
  6.3
  2.2
  0.8
  0.3
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Cinedigm Corp. is a distributor and aggregator of independent movie, television and other short form content managing a library of distribution rights to thousands of titles and episodes released across digital, physical, and home and mobile entertainment platforms. The Company also provides digital cinema assets servicing on over 12,000 domestic and foreign movie screens. It operates through four segments: first digital cinema deployment (Phase I Deployment), the second digital cinema deployment (Phase II Deployment), digital cinema services and media content and entertainment group. It collaborates with producers, brands and other content owners to market, source, curate and distribute content to targeted audiences. It distributes content through existing and emerging digital home entertainment platforms and packaged distribution of DVD and Blu-ray discs to wholesalers and retailers and mortar storefronts. It also operates a branded and curated over-the-top entertainment channels.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cinedigm Cl A (CIDM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.1
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book -0.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 0.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -13.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -100%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity -165.2%
Total Debt to Equity -202.9%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.2%
Return On Total Capital -14.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.6%
Return On Equity 21.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 267.5%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 72.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 71.3%
EBITDA Margin 37.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.8%
Operating Margin 8.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -16.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -28.2%
Net Profit Margin -16.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -28.9%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

CIDM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CIDM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $90 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cinedigm Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Cinedigm Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CIDM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.9%, whose default value for CIDM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cinedigm Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cinedigm Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CIDM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 122.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CIDM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.3% for Cinedigm Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cinedigm Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CIDM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CIDM are equal to 78.3%.

Life of production assets of 2.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cinedigm Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CIDM is equal to -3.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-69 million for Cinedigm Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 13.838 million for Cinedigm Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cinedigm Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Should You Be Concerned About Cinedigm Corps (CIDM) Risks?   [Sep-13-17 07:19PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Cinedigm Stockholders Approve Bison Transaction   [Aug-31-17 05:29PM  Business Wire]
▶ Cinedigms Dove Channel Launches in Canada   [09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Cinedigms Dove Channel is on Fire with Amazon Fire   [Aug-01-17 12:49PM  Business Wire]
▶ Cinedigm to launch Dove Kids childrens network   [May-01-17 05:55PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cinedigm Corp. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 04:30PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Cinedigm Announces Major OTT Platform Expansions For 2017   [Mar-31-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Cinedigm teams with WHAM on e-sports streaming network   [Mar-02-17 01:15PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Cinedigm teams with WHAM on e-sports streaming network   [01:15PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Dove Channel Available Now on Apple TV   [Jan-17-17 12:48PM  Business Wire]
▶ Cinedigms Dove Channel forms homeschooling partnership   [Nov-22-16 06:45PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ CONtv Partners with Stan Lees Los Angeles Comic Con 2016   [Oct-25-16 02:33PM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of CIDM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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