Intrinsic value of City Office REIT - CIO

Previous Close

$10.67

  Intrinsic Value

$2.09

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-80%

Previous close

$10.67

 
Intrinsic value

$2.09

 
Up/down potential

-80%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as CIO.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CIO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  30.91
  31.60
  28.94
  26.55
  24.39
  22.45
  20.71
  19.14
  17.72
  16.45
  15.31
  14.27
  13.35
  12.51
  11.76
  11.09
  10.48
  9.93
  9.44
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.62
  7.36
  7.12
  6.91
  6.72
  6.55
  6.39
  6.25
Revenue, $m
  72
  95
  122
  155
  192
  235
  284
  339
  399
  464
  535
  612
  693
  780
  872
  969
  1,070
  1,176
  1,287
  1,403
  1,524
  1,649
  1,779
  1,915
  2,056
  2,202
  2,355
  2,513
  2,677
  2,848
  3,026
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  88
  114
  144
  179
  219
  265
  315
  371
  432
  498
  570
  646
  726
  812
  902
  996
  1,095
  1,198
  1,306
  1,418
  1,535
  1,657
  1,783
  1,914
  2,050
  2,192
  2,339
  2,493
  2,652
  2,818
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  73
  88
  114
  144
  179
  219
  265
  315
  371
  432
  498
  570
  646
  726
  812
  902
  996
  1,095
  1,198
  1,306
  1,418
  1,535
  1,657
  1,783
  1,914
  2,050
  2,192
  2,339
  2,493
  2,652
  2,818
Operating income, $m
  0
  7
  8
  11
  13
  16
  20
  23
  28
  32
  37
  42
  48
  54
  60
  67
  74
  81
  89
  97
  105
  114
  123
  132
  142
  152
  162
  173
  185
  197
  209
EBITDA, $m
  30
  46
  59
  75
  93
  114
  138
  164
  194
  225
  260
  297
  337
  379
  423
  470
  520
  571
  625
  681
  740
  801
  864
  930
  998
  1,070
  1,143
  1,220
  1,300
  1,383
  1,470
Interest expense (income), $m
  14
  14
  19
  26
  33
  41
  51
  61
  73
  87
  101
  117
  134
  152
  171
  191
  213
  235
  259
  283
  309
  335
  363
  392
  422
  453
  485
  519
  554
  590
  628
Earnings before tax, $m
  0
  -8
  -11
  -15
  -19
  -25
  -31
  -38
  -46
  -55
  -64
  -75
  -86
  -98
  -111
  -124
  -139
  -154
  -170
  -186
  -203
  -221
  -240
  -260
  -280
  -301
  -323
  -346
  -369
  -394
  -419
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -1
  -8
  -11
  -15
  -19
  -25
  -31
  -38
  -46
  -55
  -64
  -75
  -86
  -98
  -111
  -124
  -139
  -154
  -170
  -186
  -203
  -221
  -240
  -260
  -280
  -301
  -323
  -346
  -369
  -394
  -419

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  661
  854
  1,101
  1,393
  1,733
  2,122
  2,561
  3,051
  3,592
  4,183
  4,823
  5,511
  6,247
  7,028
  7,855
  8,726
  9,640
  10,597
  11,597
  12,640
  13,726
  14,856
  16,031
  17,253
  18,522
  19,841
  21,212
  22,637
  24,119
  25,661
  27,266
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  647
  854
  1,101
  1,393
  1,733
  2,122
  2,561
  3,051
  3,592
  4,183
  4,823
  5,511
  6,247
  7,028
  7,855
  8,726
  9,640
  10,597
  11,597
  12,640
  13,726
  14,856
  16,031
  17,253
  18,522
  19,841
  21,212
  22,637
  24,119
  25,661
  27,266
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.111
  0.111
  0.111
  0.111
  0.111
  0.111
  0.111
  0.111
  0.111
  0.111
  0.111
  0.111
  0.111
  0.111
  0.111
  0.111
  0.111
  0.111
  0.111
  0.111
  0.111
  0.111
  0.111
  0.111
  0.111
  0.111
  0.111
  0.111
  0.111
  0.111
  0.111
Average production assets, $m
  501
  659
  850
  1,076
  1,338
  1,639
  1,978
  2,356
  2,774
  3,230
  3,725
  4,256
  4,825
  5,428
  6,067
  6,739
  7,445
  8,184
  8,957
  9,762
  10,601
  11,474
  12,382
  13,325
  14,305
  15,324
  16,383
  17,484
  18,628
  19,819
  21,058
Working capital, $m
  0
  -18
  -24
  -30
  -37
  -46
  -55
  -66
  -77
  -90
  -104
  -119
  -135
  -151
  -169
  -188
  -208
  -228
  -250
  -272
  -296
  -320
  -345
  -372
  -399
  -427
  -457
  -487
  -519
  -553
  -587
Total debt, $m
  370
  500
  655
  839
  1,053
  1,297
  1,574
  1,882
  2,222
  2,594
  2,996
  3,429
  3,892
  4,384
  4,904
  5,451
  6,026
  6,628
  7,257
  7,913
  8,597
  9,307
  10,047
  10,815
  11,613
  12,443
  13,305
  14,202
  15,134
  16,104
  17,113
Total liabilities, $m
  407
  537
  692
  876
  1,090
  1,334
  1,611
  1,919
  2,259
  2,631
  3,033
  3,466
  3,929
  4,421
  4,941
  5,488
  6,063
  6,665
  7,294
  7,950
  8,634
  9,344
  10,084
  10,852
  11,650
  12,480
  13,342
  14,239
  15,171
  16,141
  17,150
Total equity, $m
  254
  317
  408
  517
  643
  787
  950
  1,132
  1,333
  1,552
  1,789
  2,045
  2,318
  2,607
  2,914
  3,237
  3,576
  3,931
  4,302
  4,689
  5,092
  5,512
  5,948
  6,401
  6,872
  7,361
  7,870
  8,398
  8,948
  9,520
  10,116
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  661
  854
  1,100
  1,393
  1,733
  2,121
  2,561
  3,051
  3,592
  4,183
  4,822
  5,511
  6,247
  7,028
  7,855
  8,725
  9,639
  10,596
  11,596
  12,639
  13,726
  14,856
  16,032
  17,253
  18,522
  19,841
  21,212
  22,637
  24,119
  25,661
  27,266
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.457
  1.580
  1.600
  1.620
  1.640
  1.650
  1.660
  1.660
  1.670
  1.670
  1.670
  1.680
  1.680
  1.680
  1.680
  1.680
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -1
  -8
  -11
  -15
  -19
  -25
  -31
  -38
  -46
  -55
  -64
  -75
  -86
  -98
  -111
  -124
  -139
  -154
  -170
  -186
  -203
  -221
  -240
  -260
  -280
  -301
  -323
  -346
  -369
  -394
  -419
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  30
  39
  51
  64
  80
  98
  118
  141
  166
  193
  223
  255
  289
  325
  363
  404
  446
  490
  536
  585
  635
  687
  741
  798
  857
  918
  981
  1,047
  1,115
  1,187
  1,261
Funds from operations, $m
  4
  32
  40
  50
  61
  73
  87
  103
  120
  139
  159
  180
  203
  227
  252
  279
  307
  336
  367
  398
  431
  466
  501
  538
  577
  617
  658
  701
  746
  793
  842
Change in working capital, $m
  -15
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
Cash from operations, $m
  19
  36
  45
  56
  68
  82
  97
  114
  132
  152
  173
  195
  219
  244
  270
  298
  327
  357
  388
  421
  455
  490
  527
  565
  604
  645
  688
  732
  778
  826
  876
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -30
  -39
  -51
  -64
  -80
  -98
  -118
  -141
  -166
  -193
  -223
  -255
  -289
  -325
  -363
  -404
  -446
  -490
  -536
  -585
  -635
  -687
  -741
  -798
  -857
  -918
  -981
  -1,047
  -1,115
  -1,187
New CAPEX, $m
  -9
  -158
  -191
  -226
  -262
  -300
  -339
  -378
  -418
  -456
  -494
  -532
  -568
  -604
  -638
  -673
  -706
  -739
  -772
  -805
  -839
  -873
  -908
  -943
  -980
  -1,019
  -1,059
  -1,101
  -1,145
  -1,191
  -1,239
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -217
  -188
  -230
  -277
  -326
  -380
  -437
  -496
  -559
  -622
  -687
  -755
  -823
  -893
  -963
  -1,036
  -1,110
  -1,185
  -1,262
  -1,341
  -1,424
  -1,508
  -1,595
  -1,684
  -1,778
  -1,876
  -1,977
  -2,082
  -2,192
  -2,306
  -2,426
Free cash flow, $m
  -198
  -152
  -185
  -221
  -259
  -299
  -341
  -383
  -427
  -471
  -515
  -560
  -604
  -649
  -693
  -738
  -783
  -828
  -874
  -921
  -969
  -1,018
  -1,068
  -1,120
  -1,174
  -1,230
  -1,289
  -1,350
  -1,413
  -1,480
  -1,550
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  30
  130
  155
  184
  214
  245
  276
  308
  340
  372
  403
  433
  463
  492
  520
  548
  575
  602
  629
  656
  683
  711
  739
  768
  798
  830
  862
  896
  932
  970
  1,009
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  195
  85
  103
  123
  145
  169
  194
  220
  246
  274
  302
  330
  359
  388
  417
  447
  478
  509
  541
  573
  606
  641
  676
  713
  751
  790
  831
  874
  919
  966
  1,015
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  224
  215
  258
  307
  359
  414
  470
  528
  586
  646
  705
  763
  822
  880
  937
  995
  1,053
  1,111
  1,170
  1,229
  1,289
  1,352
  1,415
  1,481
  1,549
  1,620
  1,693
  1,770
  1,851
  1,936
  2,024
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  27
  62
  73
  86
  100
  115
  130
  145
  160
  175
  189
  203
  217
  231
  244
  257
  270
  283
  295
  308
  321
  334
  347
  361
  375
  390
  405
  421
  438
  455
  474
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -188
  -85
  -103
  -123
  -145
  -169
  -194
  -220
  -246
  -274
  -302
  -330
  -359
  -388
  -417
  -447
  -478
  -509
  -541
  -573
  -606
  -641
  -676
  -713
  -751
  -790
  -831
  -874
  -919
  -966
  -1,015
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -8
  -30
  -37
  -45
  -54
  -64
  -75
  -87
  -99
  -113
  -127
  -141
  -157
  -173
  -190
  -208
  -226
  -245
  -265
  -286
  -307
  -329
  -352
  -376
  -401
  -426
  -453
  -481
  -510
  -540
Discount rate, %
 
  9.60
  10.08
  10.58
  11.11
  11.67
  12.25
  12.86
  13.51
  14.18
  14.89
  15.64
  16.42
  17.24
  18.10
  19.01
  19.96
  20.96
  22.00
  23.10
  24.26
  25.47
  26.75
  28.08
  29.49
  30.96
  32.51
  34.13
  35.84
  37.63
  39.51
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -8
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -32
  -31
  -30
  -28
  -26
  -23
  -20
  -17
  -14
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  78.3
  62.5
  50.5
  41.4
  34.3
  28.7
  24.3
  20.8
  17.9
  15.5
  13.6
  11.9
  10.5
  9.4
  8.4
  7.5
  6.7
  6.1
  5.5
  5.0
  4.6
  4.2
  3.8
  3.5
  3.2
  2.9
  2.7
  2.5
  2.3
  2.1

City Office REIT, Inc. is a real estate investment trust. The Company is focused on acquiring, owning and operating office properties located primarily in metropolitan areas in the Southern and Western United States. It conducts its operations primarily through City Office REIT Operating Partnership, L.P. (the Operating Partnership). As of December 31, 2016, it owned 18 office complexes consisting of 37 office buildings with a total of approximately 4.4 million square feet of net rentable area (NRA) in the metropolitan areas of Boise, Dallas, Denver, Orlando, Phoenix, Portland and Tampa. Its properties include Park Tower, City Center, Intellicenter and Carillon Point in Tampa, Florida; Cherry Creek, Plaza 25, DTC Crossroads, Superior Pointe and Logan Tower in Denver, Colorado; Washington Group Plaza in Boise, Idaho; FRP Collection, Central Fairwinds and FRP Ingenuity Drive in Orlando, Florida; 190 Office Center and Lake Vista Pointe in Dallas, Texas, and SanTan in Phoenix, Arizona.


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FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  City Office REIT (CIO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -260.1
Price to Sales 3.6
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 26
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 30.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 80%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 17.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 145.7%
Total Debt to Equity 145.7%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Return On Total Capital -0.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.2%
Return On Equity -0.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.3%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 61.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60.2%
EBITDA Margin 61.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.1%
Operating Margin -1.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.4%
Net Profit Margin -1.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.4%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio -2100%

CIO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CIO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $72 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by City Office REIT. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of City Office REIT. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CIO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 31.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.6%, whose default value for CIO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of City Office REIT, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of City Office REIT.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CIO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CIO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.9% for City Office REIT.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for City Office REIT. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CIO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CIO are equal to 695.8%.

Life of production assets of 16.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in City Office REIT operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CIO is equal to -19.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $254 million for City Office REIT - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 30.355 million for City Office REIT is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of City Office REIT at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Is There Now An Opportunity In City Office REIT Inc (CIO)?   [Nov-06-17 09:12AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ City Office REIT reports 3Q results   [06:31AM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Junk Bond Funds Yielding Up To 10.2%   [Sep-17-17 08:04AM  Forbes]
▶ City Office REIT reports 2Q results   [Aug-04-17 02:36AM  Associated Press]
▶ City Office REIT reports 1Q results   [May-05-17 06:15AM  Associated Press]
▶ City Office REIT reports 4Q results   [06:23AM  Associated Press]
▶ How City Office REIT Inc (CIO) Ranks Amongst Its Peers   [Dec-19-16 09:53AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Downtown Tampa's original office tower sold for $79.75 million   [Nov-04-16 12:59PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ City Office REIT Improves Transparency with Yardi Voyager   [Oct-25-16 08:00AM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of CIO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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