Intrinsic value of Circor International - CIR

Previous Close

$50.65

  Intrinsic Value

$16.12

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-68%

  Value-price divergence*

-7%

Previous close

$50.65

 
Intrinsic value

$16.12

 
Up/down potential

-68%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-7%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CIR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -10.06
  3.40
  3.56
  3.70
  3.83
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.23
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.92
Revenue, $m
  590
  610
  632
  655
  680
  707
  736
  766
  799
  833
  870
  908
  949
  992
  1,038
  1,086
  1,137
  1,190
  1,247
  1,306
  1,368
  1,434
  1,503
  1,576
  1,653
  1,733
  1,818
  1,907
  2,001
  2,099
  2,202
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  471
  487
  504
  523
  543
  564
  586
  610
  636
  663
  670
  700
  732
  766
  801
  839
  878
  920
  964
  1,010
  1,058
  1,109
  1,163
  1,220
  1,279
  1,342
  1,407
  1,476
  1,549
  1,625
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  129
  132
  136
  139
  143
  146
  150
  154
  157
  161
  165
  169
  174
  178
  182
  187
  192
  197
  201
  206
  212
  217
  222
  228
  234
  239
  245
  252
  258
  264
Total operating expenses, $m
  579
  600
  619
  640
  662
  686
  710
  736
  764
  793
  824
  835
  869
  906
  944
  983
  1,026
  1,070
  1,117
  1,165
  1,216
  1,270
  1,326
  1,385
  1,448
  1,513
  1,581
  1,652
  1,728
  1,807
  1,889
Operating income, $m
  11
  10
  13
  15
  19
  22
  26
  30
  35
  40
  46
  73
  79
  86
  94
  102
  111
  120
  130
  141
  152
  164
  177
  191
  205
  221
  237
  254
  273
  292
  313
EBITDA, $m
  36
  45
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  68
  74
  80
  86
  93
  101
  109
  118
  127
  137
  147
  158
  170
  183
  197
  211
  226
  243
  260
  278
  298
  318
  340
  363
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
Earnings before tax, $m
  10
  1
  3
  5
  8
  11
  14
  18
  22
  26
  31
  57
  63
  69
  75
  82
  90
  98
  107
  116
  126
  136
  147
  159
  172
  186
  200
  215
  231
  249
  267
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  67
  72
Net income, $m
  10
  1
  2
  4
  6
  8
  10
  13
  16
  19
  23
  42
  46
  50
  55
  60
  66
  71
  78
  85
  92
  99
  108
  116
  126
  135
  146
  157
  169
  181
  195

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  58
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  821
  789
  817
  848
  880
  915
  952
  991
  1,033
  1,078
  1,125
  1,175
  1,228
  1,284
  1,343
  1,405
  1,471
  1,540
  1,613
  1,690
  1,770
  1,855
  1,945
  2,039
  2,138
  2,242
  2,352
  2,467
  2,588
  2,715
  2,849
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  763
  789
  817
  848
  880
  915
  952
  991
  1,033
  1,078
  1,125
  1,175
  1,228
  1,284
  1,343
  1,405
  1,471
  1,540
  1,613
  1,690
  1,770
  1,855
  1,945
  2,039
  2,138
  2,242
  2,352
  2,467
  2,588
  2,715
  2,849
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.773
  0.773
  0.774
  0.772
  0.773
  0.773
  0.773
  0.773
  0.773
  0.773
  0.773
  0.773
  0.773
  0.773
  0.773
  0.773
  0.773
  0.773
  0.773
  0.773
  0.773
  0.773
  0.773
  0.773
  0.773
  0.773
  0.773
  0.773
  0.773
  0.773
  0.773
Average production assets, $m
  186
  192
  199
  206
  214
  223
  232
  241
  252
  262
  274
  286
  299
  313
  327
  342
  358
  375
  393
  411
  431
  452
  474
  497
  521
  546
  573
  601
  630
  661
  694
Working capital, $m
  252
  201
  208
  216
  224
  233
  242
  252
  263
  274
  286
  299
  312
  327
  342
  357
  374
  392
  410
  430
  450
  472
  495
  519
  544
  570
  598
  627
  658
  691
  725
Total debt, $m
  251
  266
  281
  298
  315
  334
  355
  376
  399
  424
  449
  477
  506
  536
  569
  603
  638
  676
  716
  758
  802
  849
  898
  949
  1,004
  1,061
  1,121
  1,184
  1,250
  1,319
  1,392
Total liabilities, $m
  416
  432
  447
  464
  481
  500
  521
  542
  565
  590
  615
  643
  672
  702
  735
  769
  804
  842
  882
  924
  968
  1,015
  1,064
  1,115
  1,170
  1,227
  1,287
  1,350
  1,416
  1,485
  1,558
Total equity, $m
  404
  358
  370
  384
  399
  414
  431
  449
  468
  488
  510
  532
  556
  582
  608
  637
  666
  698
  731
  765
  802
  841
  881
  924
  969
  1,016
  1,065
  1,118
  1,172
  1,230
  1,291
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  820
  790
  817
  848
  880
  914
  952
  991
  1,033
  1,078
  1,125
  1,175
  1,228
  1,284
  1,343
  1,406
  1,470
  1,540
  1,613
  1,689
  1,770
  1,856
  1,945
  2,039
  2,139
  2,243
  2,352
  2,468
  2,588
  2,715
  2,849
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.621
  0.740
  0.760
  0.780
  0.790
  0.810
  0.820
  0.840
  0.850
  0.870
  0.880
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
  1.000
  1.010
  1.020
  1.030
  1.040
  1.040
  1.050
  1.060
  1.070
  1.070
  1.080
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453
  0.453

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  10
  1
  2
  4
  6
  8
  10
  13
  16
  19
  23
  42
  46
  50
  55
  60
  66
  71
  78
  85
  92
  99
  108
  116
  126
  135
  146
  157
  169
  181
  195
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  25
  35
  35
  36
  36
  37
  37
  38
  39
  40
  40
  21
  22
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
Funds from operations, $m
  68
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  62
  67
  73
  78
  85
  91
  98
  106
  114
  123
  132
  142
  152
  163
  175
  187
  200
  214
  229
  245
Change in working capital, $m
  9
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
Cash from operations, $m
  59
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  50
  54
  58
  63
  69
  75
  81
  87
  95
  102
  110
  119
  128
  138
  148
  159
  171
  183
  197
  211
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
New CAPEX, $m
  -15
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -210
  -19
  -21
  -21
  -23
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -81
Free cash flow, $m
  -151
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  18
  20
  23
  27
  30
  34
  38
  43
  48
  53
  59
  65
  71
  78
  85
  93
  102
  111
  120
  130
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  161
  15
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  11
  10
  10
  9
  8
  6
  5
  3
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  162
  26
  25
  27
  27
  27
  26
  27
  26
  25
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  7
  35
  35
  36
  38
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  47
  45
  49
  54
  59
  64
  70
  76
  83
  90
  97
  105
  114
  123
  132
  142
  153
  165
  177
  190
  204
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -3
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  58
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  81
  23
  23
  23
  23
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  22
  25
  29
  32
  36
  40
  45
  50
  55
  61
  67
  73
  80
  87
  95
  104
  113
  122
  132
  143
Discount rate, %
 
  6.10
  6.41
  6.73
  7.06
  7.41
  7.79
  8.17
  8.58
  9.01
  9.46
  9.94
  10.43
  10.95
  11.50
  12.08
  12.68
  13.32
  13.98
  14.68
  15.41
  16.19
  16.99
  17.84
  18.74
  19.67
  20.66
  21.69
  22.77
  23.91
  25.11
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  76
  20
  19
  17
  16
  15
  13
  12
  11
  10
  8
  8
  7
  7
  7
  6
  5
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  98.6
  97.2
  96.0
  94.9
  94.1
  93.4
  92.9
  92.6
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5
  92.5

CIRCOR International, Inc. (CIRCOR) designs, manufactures and markets engineered products and sub-systems for markets, including oil and gas, aerospace, power and process, and industrial solutions. The Company operates through two segments: CIRCOR Energy (Energy segment (Energy)) and CIRCOR Advanced Flow Solutions (Advanced Flow Solutions segment (AFS)). Energy provides engineered integrated flow control solutions, valves and services primarily in the oil and gas end market. AFS is a flow control technology platform. Energy provides its flow control solutions and services through the brands, including Circle Seal Controls, DeltaValve, Contromatics, Dopak Sampling and others. AFS manufactures and markets control valves, automatic recirculation valves, regulators, fluid controls, actuation systems, landing gear components, pneumatic controls, electro-mechanical controls, and other flow control products and systems. As of December 31, 2016, it operated 19 manufacturing facilities.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Circor International (CIR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 83.3
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -10.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 15.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 62.1%
Total Debt to Equity 62.1%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Return On Total Capital 1.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Return On Equity 2.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 31%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.6%
EBITDA Margin 6.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Operating Margin 1.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Net Profit Margin 1.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.1%
Payout Ratio 30%

CIR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CIR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $590 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Circor International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Circor International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CIR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.1%, whose default value for CIR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Circor International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Circor International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CIR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 77.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $126 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CIR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Circor International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Circor International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CIR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CIR are equal to 31.5%.

Life of production assets of 13.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Circor International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CIR is equal to 32.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $404 million for Circor International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 16.622 million for Circor International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Circor International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ CIRCOR Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-07-17 04:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ CIRCOR Reports Second-Quarter 2017 Financial Results   [Jul-28-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ CIRCOR Products Used on Americas Most-Advanced Warship   [Jul-12-17 04:45PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for July 11th   [Jul-11-17 09:44AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for June 30th   [Jun-30-17 09:26AM  Zacks]
▶ CIRCOR (CIR) in Focus: Stock Moves 5.4% Higher   [Jun-23-17 08:37AM  Zacks]
▶ CIRCOR International to Host 2017 Investor Day Today   [May-25-17 07:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ CIRCOR Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [May-15-17 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ CIRCOR International to Host 2017 Investor Day   [May-12-17 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Circor misses Street 1Q forecasts   [Apr-28-17 08:12AM  Associated Press]
▶ CIRCOR Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [Feb-09-17 01:40PM  Business Wire]
▶ Is CIRCOR International, Inc. (CIR) Going to Frustrate Investors?   [Dec-13-16 04:04AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ CIRCOR Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [Nov-08-16 05:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ CIRCOR Acquires Critical Flow Solutions   [Oct-13-16 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ CIRCOR Energy | RTK Announces New Actuator Line   [Aug-02-16 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ CIRCOR Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [09:03AM  Business Wire]
▶ [$$] Barron's Small-Cap Picks Beat the Market   [Jul-02-16 12:01AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ CIRCOR Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [May-13-16 10:30AM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of CIR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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