Intrinsic value of Civitas Solutions - CIVI

Previous Close

$18.10

  Intrinsic Value

$21.29

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+18%

  Value-price divergence*

+9%

Previous close

$18.10

 
Intrinsic value

$21.29

 
Up/down potential

+18%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

+9%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CIVI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.00
  4.60
  4.64
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.76
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.87
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.93
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
Revenue, $m
  1,408
  1,473
  1,541
  1,613
  1,689
  1,769
  1,853
  1,942
  2,036
  2,134
  2,237
  2,346
  2,460
  2,581
  2,707
  2,840
  2,979
  3,126
  3,280
  3,442
  3,613
  3,792
  3,980
  4,177
  4,384
  4,602
  4,831
  5,071
  5,324
  5,589
  5,867
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,040
  1,087
  1,137
  1,189
  1,244
  1,302
  1,363
  1,427
  1,494
  1,566
  1,613
  1,692
  1,774
  1,861
  1,952
  2,048
  2,149
  2,255
  2,367
  2,484
  2,607
  2,736
  2,872
  3,014
  3,164
  3,321
  3,487
  3,660
  3,842
  4,034
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  372
  381
  391
  401
  411
  421
  431
  442
  453
  465
  476
  488
  500
  513
  526
  539
  552
  566
  580
  595
  610
  625
  641
  657
  673
  690
  707
  725
  743
  761
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,350
  1,412
  1,468
  1,528
  1,590
  1,655
  1,723
  1,794
  1,869
  1,947
  2,031
  2,089
  2,180
  2,274
  2,374
  2,478
  2,587
  2,701
  2,821
  2,947
  3,079
  3,217
  3,361
  3,513
  3,671
  3,837
  4,011
  4,194
  4,385
  4,585
  4,795
Operating income, $m
  58
  61
  73
  86
  100
  115
  131
  148
  166
  186
  207
  257
  281
  306
  333
  362
  392
  424
  459
  495
  534
  575
  619
  665
  713
  765
  820
  878
  939
  1,003
  1,072
EBITDA, $m
  131
  129
  143
  158
  174
  191
  209
  229
  250
  272
  296
  321
  348
  377
  408
  440
  474
  511
  549
  590
  634
  680
  728
  780
  834
  892
  953
  1,017
  1,086
  1,158
  1,234
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  92
  97
  102
  108
  114
  120
Earnings before tax, $m
  23
  38
  49
  60
  73
  86
  100
  115
  132
  149
  168
  215
  236
  259
  283
  309
  336
  365
  396
  429
  464
  501
  540
  582
  626
  673
  723
  775
  831
  890
  952
Tax expense, $m
  14
  10
  13
  16
  20
  23
  27
  31
  36
  40
  45
  58
  64
  70
  76
  83
  91
  99
  107
  116
  125
  135
  146
  157
  169
  182
  195
  209
  224
  240
  257
Net income, $m
  9
  28
  36
  44
  53
  63
  73
  84
  96
  109
  122
  157
  172
  189
  207
  225
  245
  267
  289
  313
  339
  366
  395
  425
  457
  491
  528
  566
  606
  649
  695

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  51
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,086
  1,136
  1,188
  1,244
  1,302
  1,364
  1,429
  1,497
  1,569
  1,645
  1,725
  1,809
  1,897
  1,990
  2,087
  2,190
  2,297
  2,410
  2,529
  2,654
  2,785
  2,923
  3,068
  3,220
  3,380
  3,548
  3,725
  3,910
  4,105
  4,309
  4,524
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,035
  1,136
  1,188
  1,244
  1,302
  1,364
  1,429
  1,497
  1,569
  1,645
  1,725
  1,809
  1,897
  1,990
  2,087
  2,190
  2,297
  2,410
  2,529
  2,654
  2,785
  2,923
  3,068
  3,220
  3,380
  3,548
  3,725
  3,910
  4,105
  4,309
  4,524
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.360
  1.297
  1.297
  1.297
  1.297
  1.297
  1.297
  1.297
  1.298
  1.297
  1.297
  1.297
  1.297
  1.297
  1.297
  1.297
  1.297
  1.297
  1.297
  1.297
  1.297
  1.297
  1.297
  1.297
  1.297
  1.297
  1.297
  1.297
  1.297
  1.297
  1.297
Average production assets, $m
  388
  406
  425
  445
  466
  488
  512
  536
  562
  589
  617
  647
  679
  712
  747
  784
  822
  863
  905
  950
  997
  1,046
  1,098
  1,153
  1,210
  1,270
  1,333
  1,400
  1,469
  1,542
  1,619
Working capital, $m
  77
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  117
  122
  129
  135
Total debt, $m
  638
  681
  727
  775
  826
  879
  936
  995
  1,057
  1,123
  1,192
  1,264
  1,341
  1,421
  1,505
  1,594
  1,687
  1,785
  1,888
  1,997
  2,110
  2,230
  2,355
  2,487
  2,625
  2,771
  2,924
  3,084
  3,253
  3,430
  3,615
Total liabilities, $m
  941
  983
  1,029
  1,077
  1,128
  1,181
  1,238
  1,297
  1,359
  1,425
  1,494
  1,566
  1,643
  1,723
  1,807
  1,896
  1,989
  2,087
  2,190
  2,299
  2,412
  2,532
  2,657
  2,789
  2,927
  3,073
  3,226
  3,386
  3,555
  3,732
  3,917
Total equity, $m
  146
  152
  159
  167
  175
  183
  191
  201
  210
  220
  231
  242
  254
  267
  280
  293
  308
  323
  339
  356
  373
  392
  411
  432
  453
  475
  499
  524
  550
  577
  606
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,087
  1,135
  1,188
  1,244
  1,303
  1,364
  1,429
  1,498
  1,569
  1,645
  1,725
  1,808
  1,897
  1,990
  2,087
  2,189
  2,297
  2,410
  2,529
  2,655
  2,785
  2,924
  3,068
  3,221
  3,380
  3,548
  3,725
  3,910
  4,105
  4,309
  4,523
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.370
  4.480
  4.570
  4.650
  4.730
  4.810
  4.890
  4.960
  5.030
  5.090
  5.160
  5.220
  5.270
  5.330
  5.380
  5.430
  5.480
  5.530
  5.570
  5.610
  5.650
  5.690
  5.730
  5.760
  5.800
  5.830
  5.860
  5.890
  5.910
  5.940
  5.960
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.092
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  9
  28
  36
  44
  53
  63
  73
  84
  96
  109
  122
  157
  172
  189
  207
  225
  245
  267
  289
  313
  339
  366
  395
  425
  457
  491
  528
  566
  606
  649
  695
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  73
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  79
  81
  84
  86
  89
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  140
  147
  154
  162
Funds from operations, $m
  82
  96
  106
  116
  127
  139
  152
  165
  180
  195
  212
  222
  240
  260
  281
  304
  328
  353
  380
  408
  439
  471
  504
  540
  578
  618
  661
  706
  753
  804
  857
Change in working capital, $m
  -25
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
Cash from operations, $m
  107
  95
  104
  114
  125
  137
  150
  163
  177
  193
  209
  219
  238
  258
  279
  301
  325
  350
  376
  405
  435
  466
  500
  536
  573
  613
  656
  700
  748
  798
  850
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -154
New CAPEX, $m
  -43
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -87
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -80
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -210
  -220
  -231
Free cash flow, $m
  20
  37
  45
  52
  60
  68
  78
  87
  98
  109
  122
  127
  141
  156
  172
  189
  208
  227
  247
  269
  293
  317
  344
  371
  401
  432
  465
  501
  538
  577
  619
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -7
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  119
  125
  132
  138
  145
  153
  160
  169
  177
  186
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -11
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  119
  125
  132
  138
  145
  153
  160
  169
  177
  186
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  9
  81
  90
  100
  110
  122
  134
  147
  160
  175
  191
  200
  218
  237
  257
  278
  301
  325
  350
  378
  406
  437
  469
  503
  539
  578
  618
  661
  706
  754
  805
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -25
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  74
  83
  93
  103
  113
  125
  137
  151
  165
  180
  189
  206
  224
  244
  264
  286
  310
  335
  361
  389
  418
  450
  483
  518
  555
  595
  636
  680
  727
  776
Discount rate, %
 
  10.10
  10.61
  11.14
  11.69
  12.28
  12.89
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.67
  16.45
  17.27
  18.14
  19.05
  20.00
  21.00
  22.05
  23.15
  24.31
  25.52
  26.80
  28.14
  29.55
  31.02
  32.57
  34.20
  35.91
  37.71
  39.59
  41.57
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  68
  68
  67
  66
  64
  60
  57
  52
  47
  42
  35
  30
  26
  21
  17
  14
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Civitas Solutions, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides home- and community-based health and human services to individuals with intellectual, developmental, physical, or behavioral disabilities and other needs in the United States. The company’s Human Services segment offers human services, including residential support, day habilitation, vocational, case management, crisis intervention, and hourly support care services; therapeutic foster care, family preservation, adoption, early intervention, school-based, and juvenile offender program services; and elder services, such as case management, nursing oversight, medication management, nutrition, daily living assistance, transportation, and therapeutic services. This segment provides its services for individuals with intellectual and/or developmental disabilities, youth with emotional, behavioral and/or medically complex challenges, or at-risk youth, and elders. It operates approximately 1,400 group homes and 150 intermediate care facilities for individuals with intellectual and/or developmental disabilities (ICFs-I/DD). The company’s Post-Acute Specialty Rehabilitation Services segment offers post-acute specialty rehabilitation services comprising neurorehabilitation, neurobehavioral rehabilitation, specialized nursing, supported living, outpatient treatment, and pre-vocational services, as well as physical, occupational, and speech therapies. This segment provides its services for individuals who have suffered acquired brain, spinal, and other catastrophic injuries and illnesses. The company serves governmental agencies, non-public payors, and not-for-profit organizations through group homes, ICFs-I/DDs, host homes, in-home and non-residential settings, educational settings, and specialized community facilities. The company was formerly known as NMH Holdings, Inc. Civitas Solutions, Inc. was founded in 1980 and is based in Boston, Massachusetts. Civitas Solutions, Inc. is a subsidiary of Vestar Capital Partners.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Civitas Solutions (CIVI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 74.8
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 4.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 7
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 432.2%
Total Debt to Equity 437%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Return On Total Capital 1.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.4%
Return On Equity 6.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.1%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 22.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.2%
EBITDA Margin 6.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Operating Margin 4.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.2%
Net Profit Margin 0.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Effective Tax Rate 60.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

CIVI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CIVI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1408 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Civitas Solutions. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Civitas Solutions. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CIVI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.1%, whose default value for CIVI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Civitas Solutions, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Civitas Solutions.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CIVI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 70.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $363 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CIVI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Civitas Solutions.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Civitas Solutions. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CIVI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CIVI are equal to 27.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Civitas Solutions operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CIVI is equal to 2.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $146 million for Civitas Solutions - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 36.19 million for Civitas Solutions is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Civitas Solutions at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Civitas Solutions beats 3Q profit forecasts   [Aug-09-17 09:33PM  Associated Press]
▶ Civitas Solutions misses 2Q profit forecasts   [04:34PM  Associated Press]
▶ Civitas Solutions meets 1Q profit forecasts   [Feb-09-17 05:11PM  Associated Press]
▶ Do Hedge Funds Love Civitas Solutions Inc (CIVI)?   [Dec-20-16 02:58PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Xencor Inc (XNCR): What Smart Money Thinks about This Stock?   [Dec-04-16 03:53PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ 5 Stocks With Rising RSIs That Lost Hedge Fund Support   [Jul-12-16 10:37AM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of CIVI Financial statements of CIVI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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