Intrinsic value of CompX International Cl A - CIX

Previous Close

$13.70

  Intrinsic Value

$9.23

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-33%

Previous close

$13.70

 
Intrinsic value

$9.23

 
Up/down potential

-33%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CIX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.00
  11.10
  10.49
  9.94
  9.45
  9.00
  8.60
  8.24
  7.92
  7.63
  7.36
  7.13
  6.91
  6.72
  6.55
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.82
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
Revenue, $m
  109
  121
  134
  147
  161
  175
  191
  206
  223
  240
  257
  276
  295
  314
  335
  356
  379
  402
  426
  451
  478
  505
  534
  564
  595
  628
  662
  697
  735
  774
  815
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  105
  116
  127
  139
  152
  164
  178
  192
  206
  221
  234
  250
  267
  285
  303
  322
  342
  362
  384
  406
  429
  454
  479
  506
  533
  562
  593
  624
  658
  692
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  93
  105
  116
  127
  139
  152
  164
  178
  192
  206
  221
  234
  250
  267
  285
  303
  322
  342
  362
  384
  406
  429
  454
  479
  506
  533
  562
  593
  624
  658
  692
Operating income, $m
  16
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  36
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  99
  105
  110
  116
  122
EBITDA, $m
  20
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  54
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  82
  86
  91
  96
  102
  107
  113
  119
  126
  132
  139
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
Earnings before tax, $m
  16
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  91
  96
  101
  107
  112
  118
Tax expense, $m
  6
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
Net income, $m
  10
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  33
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  144
  123
  136
  150
  164
  179
  194
  210
  227
  244
  262
  281
  300
  320
  341
  363
  386
  409
  434
  460
  486
  514
  544
  574
  606
  639
  674
  710
  748
  788
  830
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  111
  123
  136
  150
  164
  179
  194
  210
  227
  244
  262
  281
  300
  320
  341
  363
  386
  409
  434
  460
  486
  514
  544
  574
  606
  639
  674
  710
  748
  788
  830
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.982
  0.984
  0.985
  0.980
  0.982
  0.978
  0.985
  0.981
  0.982
  0.984
  0.981
  0.982
  0.983
  0.981
  0.982
  0.981
  0.982
  0.983
  0.982
  0.980
  0.984
  0.982
  0.982
  0.983
  0.982
  0.983
  0.982
  0.982
  0.983
  0.982
  0.982
Average production assets, $m
  33
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  58
  63
  67
  73
  78
  84
  89
  95
  102
  108
  115
  122
  129
  137
  145
  153
  162
  171
  180
  190
  200
  211
  223
  234
  247
Working capital, $m
  46
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  26
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  97
Total debt, $m
  0
  2
  4
  6
  9
  11
  13
  16
  19
  22
  24
  27
  31
  34
  37
  41
  44
  48
  52
  56
  61
  65
  70
  75
  80
  86
  91
  97
  103
  110
  116
Total liabilities, $m
  18
  20
  22
  24
  27
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  42
  45
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
  128
  134
Total equity, $m
  126
  103
  114
  126
  137
  150
  163
  176
  190
  204
  220
  235
  251
  268
  286
  304
  323
  343
  364
  385
  408
  431
  455
  481
  508
  535
  565
  595
  627
  660
  695
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  144
  123
  136
  150
  164
  179
  194
  210
  227
  244
  262
  280
  300
  320
  341
  363
  385
  409
  434
  459
  487
  514
  543
  574
  606
  639
  674
  710
  748
  788
  829
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.020
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.838
  0.838
  0.838
  0.838
  0.838
  0.838
  0.838
  0.838
  0.838
  0.838
  0.838
  0.838
  0.838
  0.838
  0.838
  0.838
  0.838
  0.838
  0.838
  0.838
  0.838
  0.838
  0.838
  0.838
  0.838
  0.838
  0.838
  0.838
  0.838
  0.838
  0.838

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  10
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
Funds from operations, $m
  13
  16
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  94
  98
  104
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
Cash from operations, $m
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  33
  36
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  99
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -31
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -28
Free cash flow, $m
  -17
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  29
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -17
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  33
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  34
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  32
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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CompX International Inc. is a manufacturer of security products used in the recreational transportation, postal, office and institutional furniture, cabinetry, tool storage, healthcare and other industries, and stainless steel exhaust systems, gauges and throttle controls for the recreational marine industry. The Company operates through two business segments: Security Products and Marine Components. Its security products include disc tumbler locks; pin tumbler locking mechanisms, and CompX eLock and StealthLock electronic locks. Its marine components include original equipment and aftermarket stainless steel exhaust headers, exhaust pipes, mufflers and other exhaust components; gauges; mechanical and electronic controls and throttles; steering wheels and other billet aluminum accessories, and dash panels. The Company's brands include National Cabinet Lock, Fort Lock, Timberline Lock, Chicago Lock, Mega Rim, Race Rim, Vantage View and GEN-X.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CompX International Cl A (CIX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 17
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 15.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -25%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -5.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Return On Total Capital 8.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Return On Equity 8.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.1%
EBITDA Margin 18.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.4%
Operating Margin 14.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 14.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Net Profit Margin 9.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Effective Tax Rate 37.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.3%
Payout Ratio 20%

CIX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CIX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $109 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CompX International Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of CompX International Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CIX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CIX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CompX International Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CompX International Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CIX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CIX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for CompX International Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CompX International Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CIX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CIX are equal to 30.3%.

Life of production assets of 14.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CompX International Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CIX is equal to 11.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $126 million for CompX International Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 12.426 million for CompX International Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CompX International Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ COMPX DECLARES REGULAR QUARTERLY DIVIDEND   [Nov-01-17 04:19PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CompX posts 2Q profit   [Aug-04-17 09:31PM  Associated Press]
▶ COMPX DECLARES REGULAR QUARTERLY DIVIDEND   [04:21PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ COMPX REPORTS SECOND QUARTER 2017 RESULTS   [04:16PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ COMPX REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2017 RESULTS   [May-05-17 04:16PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ COMPX DECLARES REGULAR QUARTERLY DIVIDEND   [04:18PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ COMPX REPORTS FOURTH QUARTER 2016 RESULTS   [04:16PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ COMPX DECLARES REGULAR QUARTERLY DIVIDEND   [Nov-02-16 04:21PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ COMPX REPORTS THIRD QUARTER 2016 RESULTS   [04:16PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Top 6 Shareholders of BHP Billiton   [Aug-15-16 05:00PM  Investopedia]
▶ COMPX DECLARES REGULAR QUARTERLY DIVIDEND   [04:48PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ COMPX REPORTS SECOND QUARTER 2016 RESULTS   [04:46PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ COMPX DECLARES REGULAR QUARTERLY DIVIDEND   [04:17PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ COMPX REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2016 RESULTS   [04:34PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ COMPX REPORTS FOURTH QUARTER 2015 RESULTS   [04:16PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ COMPX DECLARES REGULAR QUARTERLY DIVIDEND   [04:17PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ COMPX REPORTS THIRD QUARTER 2015 RESULTS   [04:21PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ COMPX DECLARES REGULAR QUARTERLY DIVIDEND   [04:21PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 10-Q for CompX International, Inc.   [Aug-07  08:12PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ COMPX REPORTS SECOND QUARTER 2015 RESULTS   [05:17PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ COMPX DECLARES REGULAR QUARTERLY DIVIDEND   [05:17PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 10-Q for CompX International, Inc.   [May-10  08:11PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ COMPX REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2015 RESULTS   [May-06  07:10PM  at noodls]
▶ COMPX REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2015 RESULTS   [05:32PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 10-K for CompX International, Inc.   [Mar-07  07:08PM  at Company Spotlight]
Financial statements of CIX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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