Intrinsic value of SEACOR Holdings - CKH

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$32.60

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CKH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -21.23
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  831
  1,076
  1,101
  1,129
  1,161
  1,196
  1,235
  1,277
  1,322
  1,371
  1,424
  1,480
  1,540
  1,604
  1,672
  1,744
  1,821
  1,902
  1,987
  2,078
  2,173
  2,274
  2,380
  2,492
  2,610
  2,734
  2,865
  3,003
  3,148
  3,300
  3,461
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  375
  384
  394
  405
  417
  430
  444
  460
  477
  495
  509
  530
  552
  575
  600
  627
  654
  684
  715
  748
  782
  819
  857
  898
  941
  986
  1,033
  1,083
  1,136
  1,191
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  729
  747
  766
  785
  804
  825
  845
  866
  888
  910
  933
  956
  980
  1,005
  1,030
  1,055
  1,082
  1,109
  1,137
  1,165
  1,194
  1,224
  1,255
  1,286
  1,318
  1,351
  1,385
  1,420
  1,455
  1,491
Total operating expenses, $m
  992
  1,104
  1,131
  1,160
  1,190
  1,221
  1,255
  1,289
  1,326
  1,365
  1,405
  1,442
  1,486
  1,532
  1,580
  1,630
  1,682
  1,736
  1,793
  1,852
  1,913
  1,976
  2,043
  2,112
  2,184
  2,259
  2,337
  2,418
  2,503
  2,591
  2,682
Operating income, $m
  -161
  -28
  -30
  -30
  -29
  -25
  -20
  -13
  -4
  6
  19
  38
  54
  72
  92
  114
  139
  166
  195
  226
  260
  297
  337
  380
  426
  475
  528
  585
  645
  710
  779
EBITDA, $m
  -36
  101
  102
  105
  111
  118
  128
  140
  154
  170
  188
  209
  232
  258
  286
  316
  349
  385
  424
  466
  512
  560
  612
  668
  728
  791
  859
  932
  1,009
  1,091
  1,179
Interest expense (income), $m
  27
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  95
  100
  106
  112
  119
  126
  133
  141
  149
  158
  167
  176
Earnings before tax, $m
  -262
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -70
  -68
  -65
  -60
  -54
  -47
  -37
  -21
  -9
  6
  22
  40
  59
  81
  105
  132
  160
  191
  225
  261
  300
  342
  387
  436
  487
  543
  602
Tax expense, $m
  -94
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  6
  11
  16
  22
  28
  36
  43
  52
  61
  70
  81
  92
  105
  118
  132
  147
  163
Net income, $m
  -216
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -70
  -68
  -65
  -60
  -54
  -47
  -37
  -21
  -9
  4
  16
  29
  43
  59
  77
  96
  117
  140
  164
  191
  219
  250
  283
  318
  356
  396
  440

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  516
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,862
  2,568
  2,627
  2,695
  2,771
  2,855
  2,947
  3,047
  3,156
  3,273
  3,398
  3,533
  3,676
  3,829
  3,991
  4,163
  4,346
  4,539
  4,743
  4,959
  5,187
  5,427
  5,681
  5,948
  6,230
  6,526
  6,838
  7,167
  7,513
  7,877
  8,259
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,346
  2,568
  2,627
  2,695
  2,771
  2,855
  2,947
  3,047
  3,156
  3,273
  3,398
  3,533
  3,676
  3,829
  3,991
  4,163
  4,346
  4,539
  4,743
  4,959
  5,187
  5,427
  5,681
  5,948
  6,230
  6,526
  6,838
  7,167
  7,513
  7,877
  8,259
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.354
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
Average production assets, $m
  1,593
  1,604
  1,641
  1,684
  1,731
  1,783
  1,841
  1,904
  1,972
  2,045
  2,123
  2,207
  2,297
  2,392
  2,493
  2,601
  2,715
  2,836
  2,963
  3,098
  3,240
  3,391
  3,549
  3,716
  3,892
  4,077
  4,272
  4,477
  4,694
  4,921
  5,160
Working capital, $m
  393
  57
  58
  60
  62
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  92
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175
  183
Total debt, $m
  1,052
  1,078
  1,122
  1,172
  1,229
  1,292
  1,360
  1,435
  1,516
  1,604
  1,697
  1,797
  1,904
  2,018
  2,139
  2,268
  2,404
  2,548
  2,700
  2,861
  3,031
  3,211
  3,400
  3,599
  3,809
  4,030
  4,263
  4,509
  4,767
  5,038
  5,324
Total liabilities, $m
  1,801
  1,916
  1,960
  2,010
  2,067
  2,130
  2,198
  2,273
  2,354
  2,442
  2,535
  2,635
  2,742
  2,856
  2,977
  3,106
  3,242
  3,386
  3,538
  3,699
  3,869
  4,049
  4,238
  4,437
  4,647
  4,868
  5,101
  5,347
  5,605
  5,876
  6,162
Total equity, $m
  1,061
  652
  667
  684
  704
  725
  748
  774
  802
  831
  863
  897
  934
  973
  1,014
  1,057
  1,104
  1,153
  1,205
  1,260
  1,317
  1,378
  1,443
  1,511
  1,582
  1,658
  1,737
  1,820
  1,908
  2,001
  2,098
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,862
  2,568
  2,627
  2,694
  2,771
  2,855
  2,946
  3,047
  3,156
  3,273
  3,398
  3,532
  3,676
  3,829
  3,991
  4,163
  4,346
  4,539
  4,743
  4,959
  5,186
  5,427
  5,681
  5,948
  6,229
  6,526
  6,838
  7,167
  7,513
  7,877
  8,260
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.992
  1.650
  1.680
  1.710
  1.750
  1.780
  1.820
  1.850
  1.890
  1.930
  1.970
  2.000
  2.040
  2.080
  2.110
  2.140
  2.180
  2.210
  2.240
  2.270
  2.300
  2.330
  2.360
  2.380
  2.410
  2.430
  2.450
  2.480
  2.500
  2.520
  2.540
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.232
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -216
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -70
  -68
  -65
  -60
  -54
  -47
  -37
  -21
  -9
  4
  16
  29
  43
  59
  77
  96
  117
  140
  164
  191
  219
  250
  283
  318
  356
  396
  440
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  125
  130
  132
  136
  139
  143
  148
  153
  158
  164
  170
  171
  178
  185
  193
  202
  210
  220
  230
  240
  251
  263
  275
  288
  302
  316
  331
  347
  364
  381
  400
Funds from operations, $m
  28
  65
  65
  66
  70
  75
  83
  92
  104
  117
  132
  150
  169
  189
  209
  231
  254
  279
  307
  336
  368
  402
  439
  479
  521
  566
  614
  665
  720
  778
  840
Change in working capital, $m
  -23
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
Cash from operations, $m
  51
  101
  63
  65
  68
  73
  81
  90
  101
  114
  130
  147
  166
  186
  205
  227
  250
  275
  302
  332
  363
  397
  434
  473
  515
  559
  607
  658
  712
  770
  831
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -122
  -124
  -127
  -131
  -134
  -138
  -143
  -148
  -153
  -158
  -165
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -193
  -202
  -210
  -220
  -230
  -240
  -251
  -263
  -275
  -288
  -302
  -316
  -331
  -347
  -364
  -381
New CAPEX, $m
  -358
  -31
  -37
  -42
  -47
  -52
  -58
  -63
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -84
  -90
  -95
  -101
  -108
  -114
  -121
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -158
  -167
  -176
  -185
  -195
  -205
  -216
  -227
  -239
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -112
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -186
  -196
  -206
  -216
  -226
  -236
  -249
  -261
  -273
  -286
  -301
  -316
  -331
  -348
  -365
  -382
  -401
  -421
  -442
  -464
  -487
  -511
  -536
  -563
  -591
  -620
Free cash flow, $m
  -61
  -52
  -98
  -105
  -110
  -113
  -115
  -115
  -114
  -112
  -107
  -102
  -95
  -87
  -81
  -74
  -66
  -56
  -45
  -33
  -19
  -4
  12
  31
  51
  72
  96
  121
  149
  179
  211
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -58
  38
  44
  50
  57
  63
  69
  75
  81
  87
  94
  100
  107
  114
  121
  128
  136
  144
  152
  161
  170
  179
  189
  199
  210
  221
  233
  245
  258
  271
  285
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -2
  0
  69
  71
  72
  72
  70
  66
  61
  54
  46
  36
  24
  12
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -67
  38
  113
  121
  129
  135
  139
  141
  142
  141
  140
  136
  131
  126
  122
  128
  136
  144
  152
  161
  170
  179
  189
  199
  210
  221
  233
  245
  258
  271
  285
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -130
  -15
  -54
  -54
  -53
  -50
  -46
  -40
  -33
  -24
  -14
  -2
  12
  27
  40
  54
  70
  88
  107
  128
  151
  175
  202
  230
  261
  293
  329
  366
  407
  450
  496
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  210
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  632
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  604
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  11
  24
  39
  55
  73
  93
  114
  137
  162
  189
  218
  249
  283
  319
  358
  399
Discount rate, %
 
  4.90
  5.15
  5.40
  5.67
  5.96
  6.25
  6.57
  6.89
  7.24
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.19
  10.70
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  576
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  3
  5
  7
  8
  9
  9
  9
  8
  7
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  86.9
  75.4
  65.5
  57.1
  50.2
  44.6
  40.1
  36.6
  33.9
  32.0
  30.9
  30.3
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2

SEACOR Holdings Inc. owns, operates, invests, and markets equipment in the offshore oil and gas, shipping, and logistics industries worldwide. The company’s Offshore Marine Services segment operates support vessels to deliver cargo and personnel to offshore installations; handles anchors and mooring equipment; and carries and launches remote operated vehicles, as well as provides tow rigs. This segment also provides accommodations for technicians and specialists, as well as standby safety support and emergency response services; and operates lift boats supporting well intervention, work-over, decommissioning, and diving operations, as well as operates vessels used to move personnel and supplies to offshore wind farms. Its Inland River Services segment operates river transportation equipment for moving agricultural and industrial commodities, and petroleum products; and operates and invests in multi-modal terminal facilities, as well as operates barge fleeting locations, service facilities, and transshipment terminal. The company’s Shipping Services segment owns product tankers for the United States coastwise trade of crude oil, petroleum, and chemical products, as well as provides harbor tugs servicing vessels docking; and offers liner and short-sea transportation services. This segment is also involved in the terminal support and bunkering, and articulated tug and dry-bulk barge operations, as well as offers offshore tug and technical ship management services. Its Illinois Corn Processing segment produces alcohol used in the food, beverage, industrial, and petrochemical markets; dried distillers grains with solubles; and non-food grade corn oil for feedstock in biodiesel production. The company’s Other segment engages in emergency and crisis, agricultural commodity trading and logistics, and lending and leasing activities, as well as provides industrial aviation services. SEACOR Holdings Inc. was founded in 1989 and is based in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  SEACOR Holdings (CKH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2.6
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 0.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -1.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -21.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 20.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 81.8%
Total Debt to Equity 99.2%
Interest Coverage -9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -6.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.5%
Return On Total Capital -9.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.8%
Return On Equity -18.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.5%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 28%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.4%
EBITDA Margin -13.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Operating Margin -19.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -31.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.4%
Net Profit Margin -26%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.3%
Effective Tax Rate 35.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

CKH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CKH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1055 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by SEACOR Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of SEACOR Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CKH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.9%, whose default value for CKH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of SEACOR Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of SEACOR Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CKH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 34.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $711 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CKH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for SEACOR Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for SEACOR Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CKH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CKH are equal to 149.1%.

Life of production assets of 12.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in SEACOR Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CKH is equal to 5.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1271 million for SEACOR Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 17.027 million for SEACOR Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of SEACOR Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.


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Stock chart of CKH Financial statements of CKH Annual reports of CKH
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The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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