Intrinsic value of SEACOR Holdings - CKH

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$64.42

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$64.42

 
Intrinsic value

$14.58

 
Up/down potential

-77%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CKH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -21.23
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  831
  848
  867
  889
  914
  942
  973
  1,006
  1,042
  1,080
  1,122
  1,166
  1,213
  1,264
  1,317
  1,374
  1,434
  1,498
  1,565
  1,637
  1,712
  1,791
  1,875
  1,963
  2,056
  2,154
  2,257
  2,365
  2,480
  2,600
  2,726
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  242
  247
  253
  260
  268
  277
  286
  296
  307
  319
  328
  341
  355
  370
  386
  403
  421
  440
  460
  481
  503
  527
  552
  578
  605
  634
  665
  697
  731
  766
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  800
  819
  840
  861
  882
  905
  927
  950
  974
  998
  1,023
  1,049
  1,075
  1,102
  1,130
  1,158
  1,187
  1,217
  1,247
  1,278
  1,310
  1,343
  1,376
  1,411
  1,446
  1,482
  1,519
  1,557
  1,596
  1,636
Total operating expenses, $m
  998
  1,042
  1,066
  1,093
  1,121
  1,150
  1,182
  1,213
  1,246
  1,281
  1,317
  1,351
  1,390
  1,430
  1,472
  1,516
  1,561
  1,608
  1,657
  1,707
  1,759
  1,813
  1,870
  1,928
  1,989
  2,051
  2,116
  2,184
  2,254
  2,327
  2,402
Operating income, $m
  -167
  -193
  -199
  -204
  -207
  -208
  -209
  -207
  -205
  -201
  -195
  -185
  -177
  -167
  -155
  -142
  -127
  -110
  -91
  -70
  -47
  -22
  5
  35
  67
  102
  140
  181
  225
  273
  324
EBITDA, $m
  -42
  -66
  -69
  -70
  -70
  -67
  -63
  -57
  -49
  -39
  -28
  -15
  1
  18
  38
  59
  83
  109
  138
  169
  203
  240
  279
  322
  368
  418
  471
  527
  588
  653
  723
Interest expense (income), $m
  27
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  64
  67
  71
  76
  80
  85
  90
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
  143
  151
Earnings before tax, $m
  -262
  -224
  -231
  -237
  -241
  -245
  -247
  -247
  -247
  -246
  -243
  -235
  -230
  -223
  -215
  -205
  -194
  -181
  -167
  -151
  -133
  -113
  -91
  -67
  -40
  -11
  20
  54
  91
  130
  173
Tax expense, $m
  -94
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  5
  15
  24
  35
  47
Net income, $m
  -216
  -224
  -231
  -237
  -241
  -245
  -247
  -247
  -247
  -246
  -243
  -235
  -230
  -223
  -215
  -205
  -194
  -181
  -167
  -151
  -133
  -113
  -91
  -67
  -40
  -11
  15
  39
  66
  95
  126

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  516
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,862
  2,394
  2,449
  2,512
  2,583
  2,661
  2,747
  2,841
  2,942
  3,051
  3,168
  3,294
  3,427
  3,570
  3,721
  3,881
  4,052
  4,232
  4,422
  4,623
  4,836
  5,060
  5,296
  5,545
  5,808
  6,084
  6,375
  6,682
  7,004
  7,344
  7,700
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,346
  2,394
  2,449
  2,512
  2,583
  2,661
  2,747
  2,841
  2,942
  3,051
  3,168
  3,294
  3,427
  3,570
  3,721
  3,881
  4,052
  4,232
  4,422
  4,623
  4,836
  5,060
  5,296
  5,545
  5,808
  6,084
  6,375
  6,682
  7,004
  7,344
  7,700
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
  0.354
Average production assets, $m
  1,593
  1,625
  1,662
  1,705
  1,753
  1,806
  1,864
  1,928
  1,997
  2,071
  2,150
  2,235
  2,326
  2,422
  2,525
  2,634
  2,749
  2,872
  3,001
  3,137
  3,282
  3,434
  3,594
  3,763
  3,941
  4,129
  4,326
  4,534
  4,753
  4,983
  5,226
Working capital, $m
  393
  62
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
Total debt, $m
  1,052
  901
  939
  982
  1,031
  1,085
  1,144
  1,208
  1,278
  1,353
  1,434
  1,520
  1,612
  1,711
  1,815
  1,925
  2,043
  2,167
  2,298
  2,436
  2,583
  2,737
  2,900
  3,072
  3,253
  3,443
  3,644
  3,855
  4,077
  4,311
  4,557
Total liabilities, $m
  1,801
  1,650
  1,688
  1,731
  1,780
  1,834
  1,893
  1,957
  2,027
  2,102
  2,183
  2,269
  2,361
  2,460
  2,564
  2,674
  2,792
  2,916
  3,047
  3,185
  3,332
  3,486
  3,649
  3,821
  4,002
  4,192
  4,393
  4,604
  4,826
  5,060
  5,306
Total equity, $m
  1,061
  745
  762
  781
  803
  828
  854
  884
  915
  949
  985
  1,024
  1,066
  1,110
  1,157
  1,207
  1,260
  1,316
  1,375
  1,438
  1,504
  1,574
  1,647
  1,725
  1,806
  1,892
  1,983
  2,078
  2,178
  2,284
  2,395
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,862
  2,395
  2,450
  2,512
  2,583
  2,662
  2,747
  2,841
  2,942
  3,051
  3,168
  3,293
  3,427
  3,570
  3,721
  3,881
  4,052
  4,232
  4,422
  4,623
  4,836
  5,060
  5,296
  5,546
  5,808
  6,084
  6,376
  6,682
  7,004
  7,344
  7,701
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.992
  1.210
  1.230
  1.260
  1.280
  1.310
  1.340
  1.370
  1.400
  1.430
  1.460
  1.480
  1.510
  1.540
  1.570
  1.590
  1.620
  1.650
  1.670
  1.690
  1.720
  1.740
  1.760
  1.780
  1.800
  1.820
  1.840
  1.860
  1.870
  1.890
  1.900
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.232
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -216
  -224
  -231
  -237
  -241
  -245
  -247
  -247
  -247
  -246
  -243
  -235
  -230
  -223
  -215
  -205
  -194
  -181
  -167
  -151
  -133
  -113
  -91
  -67
  -40
  -11
  15
  39
  66
  95
  126
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  125
  127
  130
  133
  137
  141
  146
  150
  156
  161
  167
  171
  178
  185
  193
  201
  210
  219
  229
  239
  250
  262
  274
  287
  301
  315
  330
  346
  363
  380
  399
Funds from operations, $m
  202
  -96
  -101
  -103
  -104
  -103
  -101
  -97
  -91
  -84
  -75
  -65
  -52
  -38
  -22
  -4
  16
  38
  62
  89
  118
  149
  184
  221
  261
  304
  345
  385
  429
  475
  525
Change in working capital, $m
  151
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
Cash from operations, $m
  51
  -115
  -102
  -105
  -106
  -105
  -103
  -99
  -94
  -87
  -78
  -68
  -56
  -42
  -26
  -8
  11
  33
  57
  84
  112
  144
  178
  214
  254
  297
  337
  378
  421
  467
  516
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -122
  -124
  -127
  -130
  -134
  -138
  -142
  -147
  -152
  -158
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -193
  -201
  -210
  -219
  -229
  -239
  -250
  -262
  -274
  -287
  -301
  -315
  -330
  -346
  -363
  -380
New CAPEX, $m
  -358
  -32
  -37
  -43
  -48
  -53
  -58
  -63
  -69
  -74
  -79
  -85
  -91
  -97
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -122
  -129
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -160
  -169
  -178
  -188
  -198
  -208
  -219
  -230
  -242
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -112
  -154
  -161
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -196
  -205
  -216
  -226
  -237
  -249
  -262
  -275
  -288
  -302
  -316
  -332
  -348
  -366
  -383
  -402
  -422
  -443
  -465
  -489
  -513
  -538
  -565
  -593
  -622
Free cash flow, $m
  -61
  -268
  -264
  -274
  -284
  -292
  -299
  -305
  -310
  -313
  -316
  -317
  -317
  -316
  -314
  -310
  -305
  -299
  -291
  -282
  -271
  -259
  -245
  -229
  -211
  -192
  -175
  -161
  -144
  -126
  -107
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -58
  33
  38
  43
  49
  54
  59
  64
  70
  75
  81
  86
  92
  98
  104
  111
  117
  124
  131
  139
  146
  154
  163
  172
  181
  191
  201
  211
  222
  234
  246
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -2
  0
  243
  251
  257
  263
  267
  270
  272
  272
  272
  270
  267
  262
  256
  249
  241
  231
  219
  206
  191
  174
  156
  135
  112
  87
  65
  45
  22
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -67
  33
  281
  294
  306
  317
  326
  334
  342
  347
  353
  356
  359
  360
  360
  360
  358
  355
  350
  345
  337
  328
  319
  307
  293
  278
  266
  256
  244
  234
  246
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -130
  -235
  -226
  -231
  -235
  -238
  -240
  -241
  -240
  -238
  -235
  -231
  -225
  -218
  -209
  -199
  -188
  -175
  -160
  -143
  -125
  -105
  -82
  -57
  -31
  -1
  25
  50
  78
  107
  139
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  210
  -16
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  332
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  81
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  2
  28
Discount rate, %
 
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.18
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.17
  21.17
  22.23
  23.34
  24.51
  25.74
  27.02
  28.37
  29.79
  31.28
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  75
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  76.7
  58.6
  44.8
  34.4
  26.4
  20.4
  15.8
  12.4
  9.8
  7.8
  6.3
  5.1
  4.2
  3.5
  2.9
  2.5
  2.2
  1.9
  1.7
  1.5
  1.4
  1.3
  1.2
  1.2
  1.1
  1.1
  1.1
  1.1
  1.1

SEACOR Holdings Inc. owns, operates, invests, and markets equipment in the offshore oil and gas, shipping, and logistics industries worldwide. The company’s Offshore Marine Services segment operates support vessels to deliver cargo and personnel to offshore installations; handles anchors and mooring equipment; and carries and launches remote operated vehicles, as well as provides tow rigs. This segment also provides accommodations for technicians and specialists, as well as standby safety support and emergency response services; and operates lift boats supporting well intervention, work-over, decommissioning, and diving operations, as well as operates vessels used to move personnel and supplies to offshore wind farms. Its Inland River Services segment operates river transportation equipment for moving agricultural and industrial commodities, and petroleum products; and operates and invests in multi-modal terminal facilities, as well as operates barge fleeting locations, service facilities, and transshipment terminal. The company’s Shipping Services segment owns product tankers for the United States coastwise trade of crude oil, petroleum, and chemical products, as well as provides harbor tugs servicing vessels docking; and offers liner and short-sea transportation services. This segment is also involved in the terminal support and bunkering, and articulated tug and dry-bulk barge operations, as well as offers offshore tug and technical ship management services. Its Illinois Corn Processing segment produces alcohol used in the food, beverage, industrial, and petrochemical markets; dried distillers grains with solubles; and non-food grade corn oil for feedstock in biodiesel production. The company’s Other segment engages in emergency and crisis, agricultural commodity trading and logistics, and lending and leasing activities, as well as provides industrial aviation services. SEACOR Holdings Inc. was founded in 1989 and is based in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  SEACOR Holdings (CKH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -5.2
Price to Sales 1.3
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22
Price to Free Cash Flow -3.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -21.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 20.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 81.8%
Total Debt to Equity 99.2%
Interest Coverage -9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -6.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.5%
Return On Total Capital -9.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.8%
Return On Equity -18.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.5%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 28%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.4%
EBITDA Margin -13.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Operating Margin -20.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -31.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.4%
Net Profit Margin -26%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.3%
Effective Tax Rate 35.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

CKH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CKH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $831 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by SEACOR Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of SEACOR Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CKH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.6%, whose default value for CKH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of SEACOR Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of SEACOR Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CKH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 28.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $780 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CKH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for SEACOR Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for SEACOR Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CKH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CKH are equal to 191.7%.

Life of production assets of 13.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in SEACOR Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CKH is equal to 7.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1061 million for SEACOR Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 17.633 million for SEACOR Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of SEACOR Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.


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Stock chart of CKH Financial statements of CKH Annual reports of CKH
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