Intrinsic value of Caladrius Biosciences - CLBS

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$4.85

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$4.85

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CLBS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  59.09
  25.00
  23.00
  21.20
  19.58
  18.12
  16.81
  15.63
  14.57
  13.61
  12.75
  11.97
  11.28
  10.65
  10.08
  9.58
  9.12
  8.71
  8.34
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.60
  6.44
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
Revenue, $m
  35
  44
  54
  65
  78
  92
  108
  124
  143
  162
  183
  204
  228
  252
  277
  304
  331
  360
  390
  421
  454
  488
  523
  559
  597
  636
  677
  720
  764
  811
  859
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  270
  332
  402
  480
  567
  663
  766
  878
  997
  1,124
  1,258
  1,399
  1,548
  1,705
  1,868
  2,038
  2,216
  2,400
  2,592
  2,792
  3,000
  3,215
  3,439
  3,672
  3,914
  4,166
  4,428
  4,701
  4,986
  5,282
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  67
  270
  332
  402
  480
  567
  663
  766
  878
  997
  1,124
  1,258
  1,399
  1,548
  1,705
  1,868
  2,038
  2,216
  2,400
  2,592
  2,792
  3,000
  3,215
  3,439
  3,672
  3,914
  4,166
  4,428
  4,701
  4,986
  5,282
Operating income, $m
  -31
  -226
  -278
  -337
  -402
  -475
  -555
  -642
  -735
  -835
  -941
  -1,053
  -1,172
  -1,297
  -1,428
  -1,564
  -1,707
  -1,855
  -2,010
  -2,171
  -2,338
  -2,512
  -2,692
  -2,880
  -3,075
  -3,278
  -3,489
  -3,708
  -3,937
  -4,175
  -4,423
EBITDA, $m
  -28
  -223
  -274
  -332
  -397
  -469
  -547
  -633
  -725
  -824
  -929
  -1,040
  -1,158
  -1,281
  -1,410
  -1,545
  -1,686
  -1,833
  -1,985
  -2,144
  -2,309
  -2,481
  -2,659
  -2,845
  -3,037
  -3,238
  -3,446
  -3,663
  -3,889
  -4,124
  -4,369
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  1
  0
  2
  4
  6
  8
  10
  13
  16
  19
  22
  26
  29
  33
  37
  42
  46
  51
  55
  60
  65
  71
  76
  82
  88
  94
  101
  108
  115
  122
Earnings before tax, $m
  -33
  -227
  -278
  -339
  -406
  -481
  -563
  -652
  -748
  -851
  -960
  -1,076
  -1,198
  -1,326
  -1,461
  -1,602
  -1,748
  -1,901
  -2,061
  -2,226
  -2,398
  -2,577
  -2,763
  -2,956
  -3,157
  -3,366
  -3,583
  -3,809
  -4,045
  -4,290
  -4,545
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -33
  -227
  -278
  -339
  -406
  -481
  -563
  -652
  -748
  -851
  -960
  -1,076
  -1,198
  -1,326
  -1,461
  -1,602
  -1,748
  -1,901
  -2,061
  -2,226
  -2,398
  -2,577
  -2,763
  -2,956
  -3,157
  -3,366
  -3,583
  -3,809
  -4,045
  -4,290
  -4,545

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  52
  46
  57
  69
  82
  97
  114
  132
  151
  171
  193
  216
  241
  266
  293
  321
  350
  381
  413
  446
  480
  515
  553
  591
  631
  673
  716
  761
  808
  857
  908
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  37
  46
  57
  69
  82
  97
  114
  132
  151
  171
  193
  216
  241
  266
  293
  321
  350
  381
  413
  446
  480
  515
  553
  591
  631
  673
  716
  761
  808
  857
  908
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.946
  0.957
  0.947
  0.942
  0.951
  0.948
  0.947
  0.939
  0.947
  0.947
  0.948
  0.944
  0.946
  0.947
  0.945
  0.947
  0.946
  0.945
  0.944
  0.944
  0.946
  0.948
  0.946
  0.946
  0.946
  0.945
  0.946
  0.946
  0.946
  0.946
  0.946
Average production assets, $m
  20
  25
  31
  37
  45
  53
  61
  71
  81
  92
  104
  117
  130
  144
  158
  173
  189
  206
  223
  241
  259
  278
  298
  319
  341
  363
  387
  411
  436
  463
  490
Working capital, $m
  5
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -28
  -31
  -35
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -52
  -57
  -62
  -67
  -72
  -78
  -83
  -89
  -96
  -102
  -109
  -116
  -123
  -131
  -139
  -147
Total debt, $m
  7
  2
  11
  22
  34
  48
  62
  78
  96
  114
  134
  155
  176
  200
  224
  249
  275
  303
  331
  361
  392
  424
  457
  492
  528
  565
  604
  645
  687
  731
  777
Total liabilities, $m
  47
  42
  51
  62
  74
  88
  102
  118
  136
  154
  174
  195
  216
  240
  264
  289
  315
  343
  371
  401
  432
  464
  497
  532
  568
  605
  644
  685
  727
  771
  817
Total equity, $m
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  72
  76
  81
  86
  91
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  52
  47
  57
  69
  82
  98
  113
  131
  151
  171
  193
  217
  240
  267
  293
  321
  350
  381
  412
  446
  480
  516
  552
  591
  631
  672
  716
  761
  808
  857
  908
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.400
  0.350
  1.970
  3.200
  4.150
  4.890
  5.480
  5.960
  6.350
  6.660
  6.930
  7.150
  7.340
  7.500
  7.630
  7.750
  7.860
  7.950
  8.030
  8.100
  8.170
  8.220
  8.280
  8.320
  8.370
  8.410
  8.440
  8.470
  8.500
  8.530
  8.560
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.270
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -33
  -227
  -278
  -339
  -406
  -481
  -563
  -652
  -748
  -851
  -960
  -1,076
  -1,198
  -1,326
  -1,461
  -1,602
  -1,748
  -1,901
  -2,061
  -2,226
  -2,398
  -2,577
  -2,763
  -2,956
  -3,157
  -3,366
  -3,583
  -3,809
  -4,045
  -4,290
  -4,545
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
Funds from operations, $m
  -20
  -223
  -274
  -334
  -400
  -474
  -555
  -643
  -738
  -840
  -948
  -1,063
  -1,183
  -1,310
  -1,443
  -1,582
  -1,727
  -1,879
  -2,036
  -2,199
  -2,370
  -2,546
  -2,730
  -2,921
  -3,119
  -3,326
  -3,540
  -3,764
  -3,996
  -4,238
  -4,491
Change in working capital, $m
  4
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
Cash from operations, $m
  -24
  -222
  -272
  -332
  -398
  -472
  -553
  -641
  -735
  -837
  -945
  -1,059
  -1,179
  -1,306
  -1,439
  -1,578
  -1,723
  -1,874
  -2,031
  -2,194
  -2,364
  -2,541
  -2,724
  -2,915
  -3,113
  -3,319
  -3,533
  -3,756
  -3,989
  -4,230
  -4,483
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -3
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -79
Free cash flow, $m
  -27
  -229
  -281
  -342
  -410
  -485
  -567
  -657
  -753
  -857
  -967
  -1,083
  -1,206
  -1,334
  -1,469
  -1,610
  -1,758
  -1,911
  -2,071
  -2,237
  -2,409
  -2,589
  -2,775
  -2,969
  -3,170
  -3,379
  -3,597
  -3,824
  -4,060
  -4,305
  -4,561
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -10
  -1
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  12
  230
  272
  332
  399
  473
  554
  643
  738
  840
  949
  1,064
  1,186
  1,314
  1,448
  1,588
  1,734
  1,887
  2,045
  2,210
  2,382
  2,560
  2,745
  2,938
  3,138
  3,346
  3,562
  3,788
  4,022
  4,266
  4,521
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  21
  229
  282
  343
  411
  486
  569
  659
  755
  858
  969
  1,085
  1,208
  1,337
  1,472
  1,613
  1,760
  1,914
  2,074
  2,240
  2,413
  2,592
  2,778
  2,973
  3,174
  3,383
  3,601
  3,829
  4,064
  4,310
  4,567
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -6
  -230
  -271
  -331
  -398
  -472
  -553
  -641
  -736
  -838
  -947
  -1,062
  -1,184
  -1,311
  -1,445
  -1,585
  -1,731
  -1,884
  -2,042
  -2,207
  -2,378
  -2,557
  -2,742
  -2,934
  -3,134
  -3,342
  -3,558
  -3,783
  -4,017
  -4,261
  -4,516
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  19
  -11
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  6.2
  0.8
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.2
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 7.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -1.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -1.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 59.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 60%
Total Debt to Equity 140%
Interest Coverage -16
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -56.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -64.8%
Return On Total Capital -124.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -113.3%
Return On Equity -227.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -171%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 11.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
EBITDA Margin -80%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -267.6%
Operating Margin -91.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -310.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -94.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -283.6%
Net Profit Margin -94.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -256%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

CLBS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CLBS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $35 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Caladrius Biosciences. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Caladrius Biosciences. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CLBS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 25% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CLBS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Caladrius Biosciences, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Caladrius Biosciences.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CLBS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 617.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CLBS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 16.7% for Caladrius Biosciences.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Caladrius Biosciences. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CLBS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CLBS are equal to 57.1%.

Life of production assets of 9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Caladrius Biosciences operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CLBS is equal to -17.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $5 million for Caladrius Biosciences - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 8.581 million for Caladrius Biosciences is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Caladrius Biosciences at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Company News for March 20, 2017   [Mar-20-17 10:10AM  Zacks]
▶ Caladrius Biosciences Announces 1-for-10 Reverse Split   [Jul-27-16 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 5 Breakout Stocks Under $10 Set to Soar   [10:49AM  at TheStreet]
▶ [$$] Clinical Development News, March 28-April 1   [09:40AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Trending Stocks to Watch on Monday March 14, 2016   [Mar-14-16 11:00AM  Accesswire]
Stock chart of CLBS Financial statements of CLBS
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The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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