Intrinsic value of Clean Harbors - CLH

Previous Close

$56.34

  Intrinsic Value

$14.24

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-75%

Previous close

$56.34

 
Intrinsic value

$14.24

 
Up/down potential

-75%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CLH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -15.88
  3.60
  3.74
  3.87
  3.98
  4.08
  4.17
  4.26
  4.33
  4.40
  4.46
  4.51
  4.56
  4.60
  4.64
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.93
Revenue, $m
  2,755
  2,854
  2,961
  3,075
  3,198
  3,328
  3,467
  3,615
  3,771
  3,937
  4,113
  4,298
  4,494
  4,701
  4,919
  5,150
  5,392
  5,648
  5,917
  6,201
  6,499
  6,813
  7,143
  7,490
  7,856
  8,240
  8,643
  9,068
  9,514
  9,982
  10,475
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,299
  2,383
  2,473
  2,570
  2,673
  2,783
  2,899
  3,023
  3,153
  3,292
  3,392
  3,546
  3,710
  3,882
  4,064
  4,255
  4,457
  4,669
  4,893
  5,128
  5,376
  5,637
  5,911
  6,199
  6,502
  6,821
  7,155
  7,507
  7,877
  8,266
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  472
  483
  495
  508
  520
  533
  547
  560
  574
  589
  604
  619
  634
  650
  666
  683
  700
  717
  735
  754
  773
  792
  812
  832
  853
  874
  896
  918
  941
  965
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,669
  2,771
  2,866
  2,968
  3,078
  3,193
  3,316
  3,446
  3,583
  3,727
  3,881
  3,996
  4,165
  4,344
  4,532
  4,730
  4,938
  5,157
  5,386
  5,628
  5,882
  6,149
  6,429
  6,723
  7,031
  7,355
  7,695
  8,051
  8,425
  8,818
  9,231
Operating income, $m
  86
  84
  95
  107
  120
  135
  151
  169
  188
  209
  232
  303
  329
  357
  387
  420
  454
  491
  530
  572
  617
  664
  714
  768
  825
  885
  949
  1,016
  1,088
  1,164
  1,244
EBITDA, $m
  373
  375
  394
  416
  440
  466
  494
  525
  558
  593
  630
  671
  714
  760
  808
  860
  916
  974
  1,037
  1,103
  1,173
  1,247
  1,326
  1,409
  1,497
  1,590
  1,688
  1,792
  1,902
  2,018
  2,140
Interest expense (income), $m
  89
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  136
  144
  153
  162
  172
  182
  193
  205
  217
  230
  243
  258
  272
  288
  305
  322
  341
  360
  380
  402
  424
  448
  473
  499
Earnings before tax, $m
  9
  -12
  -7
  -1
  6
  14
  23
  33
  44
  56
  70
  131
  147
  164
  183
  203
  224
  248
  273
  300
  328
  359
  392
  427
  464
  504
  547
  592
  640
  691
  745
Tax expense, $m
  49
  0
  0
  0
  2
  4
  6
  9
  12
  15
  19
  35
  40
  44
  49
  55
  61
  67
  74
  81
  89
  97
  106
  115
  125
  136
  148
  160
  173
  187
  201
Net income, $m
  -40
  -12
  -7
  -1
  4
  10
  17
  24
  32
  41
  51
  95
  107
  120
  133
  148
  164
  181
  199
  219
  240
  262
  286
  312
  339
  368
  399
  432
  467
  504
  544

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  307
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,682
  3,498
  3,629
  3,769
  3,919
  4,079
  4,249
  4,430
  4,622
  4,825
  5,040
  5,267
  5,508
  5,761
  6,029
  6,311
  6,608
  6,922
  7,251
  7,599
  7,964
  8,349
  8,754
  9,179
  9,627
  10,097
  10,592
  11,112
  11,659
  12,233
  12,837
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,375
  3,498
  3,629
  3,769
  3,919
  4,079
  4,249
  4,430
  4,622
  4,825
  5,040
  5,267
  5,508
  5,761
  6,029
  6,311
  6,608
  6,922
  7,251
  7,599
  7,964
  8,349
  8,754
  9,179
  9,627
  10,097
  10,592
  11,112
  11,659
  12,233
  12,837
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
Average production assets, $m
  2,076
  2,149
  2,230
  2,316
  2,408
  2,506
  2,611
  2,722
  2,840
  2,965
  3,097
  3,237
  3,384
  3,540
  3,704
  3,878
  4,060
  4,253
  4,456
  4,669
  4,894
  5,130
  5,379
  5,640
  5,915
  6,204
  6,508
  6,828
  7,164
  7,517
  7,888
Working capital, $m
  588
  291
  302
  314
  326
  339
  354
  369
  385
  402
  419
  438
  458
  480
  502
  525
  550
  576
  604
  632
  663
  695
  729
  764
  801
  840
  882
  925
  970
  1,018
  1,068
Total debt, $m
  1,633
  1,728
  1,829
  1,937
  2,053
  2,176
  2,307
  2,446
  2,594
  2,750
  2,916
  3,091
  3,276
  3,471
  3,677
  3,894
  4,123
  4,365
  4,619
  4,886
  5,168
  5,464
  5,775
  6,103
  6,448
  6,810
  7,191
  7,591
  8,012
  8,455
  8,919
Total liabilities, $m
  2,598
  2,693
  2,794
  2,902
  3,018
  3,141
  3,272
  3,411
  3,559
  3,715
  3,881
  4,056
  4,241
  4,436
  4,642
  4,859
  5,088
  5,330
  5,584
  5,851
  6,133
  6,429
  6,740
  7,068
  7,413
  7,775
  8,156
  8,556
  8,977
  9,420
  9,884
Total equity, $m
  1,084
  804
  835
  867
  901
  938
  977
  1,019
  1,063
  1,110
  1,159
  1,211
  1,267
  1,325
  1,387
  1,452
  1,520
  1,592
  1,668
  1,748
  1,832
  1,920
  2,013
  2,111
  2,214
  2,322
  2,436
  2,556
  2,682
  2,814
  2,952
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,682
  3,497
  3,629
  3,769
  3,919
  4,079
  4,249
  4,430
  4,622
  4,825
  5,040
  5,267
  5,508
  5,761
  6,029
  6,311
  6,608
  6,922
  7,252
  7,599
  7,965
  8,349
  8,753
  9,179
  9,627
  10,097
  10,592
  11,112
  11,659
  12,234
  12,836
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.506
  2.150
  2.190
  2.230
  2.280
  2.320
  2.360
  2.400
  2.440
  2.480
  2.520
  2.550
  2.590
  2.620
  2.650
  2.680
  2.710
  2.740
  2.770
  2.800
  2.820
  2.850
  2.870
  2.890
  2.910
  2.930
  2.950
  2.970
  2.990
  3.000
  3.020
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -40
  -12
  -7
  -1
  4
  10
  17
  24
  32
  41
  51
  95
  107
  120
  133
  148
  164
  181
  199
  219
  240
  262
  286
  312
  339
  368
  399
  432
  467
  504
  544
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  287
  291
  300
  310
  320
  331
  343
  356
  369
  383
  398
  368
  385
  402
  421
  441
  461
  483
  506
  531
  556
  583
  611
  641
  672
  705
  740
  776
  814
  854
  896
Funds from operations, $m
  231
  278
  293
  308
  324
  341
  360
  380
  401
  424
  449
  463
  492
  522
  554
  589
  625
  664
  706
  749
  796
  845
  897
  953
  1,011
  1,073
  1,139
  1,208
  1,281
  1,359
  1,440
Change in working capital, $m
  -29
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
Cash from operations, $m
  260
  268
  282
  297
  312
  328
  346
  365
  385
  408
  431
  444
  472
  501
  532
  565
  601
  638
  678
  720
  765
  813
  864
  917
  974
  1,034
  1,098
  1,165
  1,236
  1,311
  1,390
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -236
  -244
  -253
  -263
  -274
  -285
  -297
  -309
  -323
  -337
  -352
  -368
  -385
  -402
  -421
  -441
  -461
  -483
  -506
  -531
  -556
  -583
  -611
  -641
  -672
  -705
  -740
  -776
  -814
  -854
New CAPEX, $m
  -222
  -74
  -80
  -86
  -92
  -98
  -105
  -111
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -140
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -173
  -183
  -192
  -203
  -213
  -225
  -236
  -249
  -262
  -275
  -289
  -304
  -320
  -336
  -353
  -371
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -362
  -310
  -324
  -339
  -355
  -372
  -390
  -408
  -427
  -448
  -469
  -492
  -516
  -541
  -566
  -594
  -624
  -653
  -686
  -719
  -756
  -792
  -832
  -873
  -916
  -961
  -1,009
  -1,060
  -1,112
  -1,167
  -1,225
Free cash flow, $m
  -102
  -41
  -43
  -43
  -43
  -44
  -44
  -43
  -42
  -40
  -38
  -47
  -44
  -40
  -35
  -29
  -23
  -16
  -8
  1
  10
  21
  32
  45
  58
  73
  89
  106
  124
  144
  165
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  251
  95
  101
  108
  115
  123
  131
  139
  148
  156
  166
  175
  185
  195
  206
  217
  229
  241
  254
  267
  281
  296
  312
  328
  345
  362
  381
  400
  421
  442
  465
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -24
  40
  37
  34
  30
  27
  22
  18
  12
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  220
  135
  138
  142
  145
  150
  153
  157
  160
  162
  166
  175
  185
  195
  206
  217
  229
  241
  254
  267
  281
  296
  312
  328
  345
  362
  381
  400
  421
  442
  465
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  122
  94
  95
  99
  102
  106
  110
  114
  118
  122
  128
  128
  141
  156
  171
  188
  206
  225
  246
  268
  292
  317
  344
  372
  403
  435
  469
  506
  545
  586
  630
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  12
  -40
  -37
  -34
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  307
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  361
  58
  65
  68
  69
  71
  72
  74
  75
  78
  76
  86
  97
  110
  123
  138
  153
  170
  188
  208
  228
  251
  274
  300
  327
  356
  386
  419
  454
  491
Discount rate, %
 
  7.70
  8.09
  8.49
  8.91
  9.36
  9.83
  10.32
  10.83
  11.38
  11.95
  12.54
  13.17
  13.83
  14.52
  15.25
  16.01
  16.81
  17.65
  18.53
  19.46
  20.43
  21.45
  22.52
  23.65
  24.83
  26.07
  27.38
  28.75
  30.18
  31.69
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  335
  49
  51
  48
  44
  40
  36
  32
  29
  25
  21
  19
  18
  16
  15
  13
  11
  9
  7
  6
  5
  3
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  98.3
  96.7
  95.4
  94.3
  93.4
  92.6
  92.0
  91.7
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5

Clean Harbors, Inc. is a provider of environmental, energy and industrial services throughout North America. The Company is also a re-refiner and recycler of used oil in the world and a provider of parts cleaning and related environmental services to commercial, industrial and automotive customers in North America. The Company operates in six segments: Technical Services, Industrial Services, Field Services, Safety-Kleen, Oil and Gas Field Services, and Lodging Services. The Company is also a service provider in the recovery and decontamination of pollutants. The Company provides services to protect the ozone layer from the effects of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). It offers brands, such as Performance Plus brand and green brand EcoPower. The Company also offers CleanPack services, which include the collection, identification and categorization, packaging, transportation and disposal of laboratory chemicals and household hazardous waste. It also provides hydro excavation services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Clean Harbors (CLH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -80.7
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 85
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -15.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -15.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 150.6%
Total Debt to Equity 150.6%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -12.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.1%
Return On Total Capital -1.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Return On Equity -3.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.7%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 29.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.7%
EBITDA Margin 14%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Operating Margin 3.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Net Profit Margin -1.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Effective Tax Rate 544.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 258.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

CLH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CLH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2755 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Clean Harbors. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Clean Harbors. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CLH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.7%, whose default value for CLH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Clean Harbors, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Clean Harbors.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CLH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $460 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CLH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.9% for Clean Harbors.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Clean Harbors. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CLH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CLH are equal to 75.3%.

Life of production assets of 8.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Clean Harbors operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CLH is equal to 10.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1084 million for Clean Harbors - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 56.273 million for Clean Harbors is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Clean Harbors at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ When Should You Buy Clean Harbors Inc (CLH)?   [Dec-01-17 09:10AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Clean Harbors misses Street 3Q forecasts   [Nov-01-17 07:48AM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for October 27th   [Oct-27-17 08:37AM  Zacks]
▶ Clean Harbors Inc (CLH): What Does It Mean For Your Portfolio?   [Sep-28-17 09:05AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ What Does Clean Harbors Incs (CLH) Share Price Indicate?   [Sep-13-17 02:01PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ [$$] Clean Harbors Gets Docked   [Aug-04-17 01:28PM  Barrons.com]
▶ Clean Harbors misses 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-02-17 10:43PM  Associated Press]
▶ Clean Harbors Completes Acquisition of Lonestar West Inc.   [Jul-17-17 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Clean Harbors, Inc. : May 25, 2017   [May-25-17 12:36PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Clean Harbors, Inc. : May 8, 2017   [May-08-17 04:18PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Clean Harbors reports 1Q loss   [May-03-17 07:56AM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of CLH
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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