Intrinsic value of Calumet Specialty Products Partners - CLMT

Previous Close

$7.85

  Intrinsic Value

$1.80

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-77%

Previous close

$7.85

 
Intrinsic value

$1.80

 
Up/down potential

-77%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CLMT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -14.57
  13.40
  12.56
  11.80
  11.12
  10.51
  9.96
  9.46
  9.02
  8.62
  8.25
  7.93
  7.64
  7.37
  7.14
  6.92
  6.73
  6.56
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
Revenue, $m
  3,599
  4,081
  4,594
  5,136
  5,707
  6,307
  6,936
  7,592
  8,277
  8,990
  9,732
  10,503
  11,305
  12,139
  13,005
  13,905
  14,841
  15,814
  16,826
  17,880
  18,977
  20,119
  21,310
  22,552
  23,847
  25,200
  26,611
  28,086
  29,628
  31,240
  32,925
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,157
  3,551
  3,968
  4,407
  4,869
  5,352
  5,857
  6,383
  6,932
  7,502
  8,078
  8,695
  9,336
  10,002
  10,694
  11,414
  12,162
  12,941
  13,751
  14,595
  15,473
  16,389
  17,344
  18,341
  19,380
  20,466
  21,601
  22,786
  24,026
  25,322
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  1,037
  1,063
  1,090
  1,117
  1,145
  1,174
  1,203
  1,233
  1,264
  1,295
  1,328
  1,361
  1,395
  1,430
  1,466
  1,502
  1,540
  1,578
  1,618
  1,658
  1,700
  1,742
  1,786
  1,830
  1,876
  1,923
  1,971
  2,020
  2,071
  2,123
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,771
  4,194
  4,614
  5,058
  5,524
  6,014
  6,526
  7,060
  7,616
  8,196
  8,797
  9,406
  10,056
  10,731
  11,432
  12,160
  12,916
  13,702
  14,519
  15,369
  16,253
  17,173
  18,131
  19,130
  20,171
  21,256
  22,389
  23,572
  24,806
  26,097
  27,445
Operating income, $m
  -172
  -113
  -20
  79
  183
  294
  410
  532
  660
  794
  934
  1,098
  1,250
  1,408
  1,573
  1,745
  1,925
  2,112
  2,307
  2,511
  2,724
  2,946
  3,179
  3,422
  3,676
  3,943
  4,222
  4,514
  4,821
  5,143
  5,480
EBITDA, $m
  -1
  81
  196
  318
  447
  584
  727
  878
  1,035
  1,200
  1,372
  1,551
  1,738
  1,932
  2,135
  2,346
  2,565
  2,795
  3,033
  3,283
  3,543
  3,815
  4,099
  4,395
  4,706
  5,031
  5,371
  5,727
  6,100
  6,491
  6,902
Interest expense (income), $m
  130
  138
  156
  181
  206
  233
  261
  290
  321
  353
  387
  422
  458
  496
  535
  575
  618
  661
  707
  755
  804
  856
  909
  965
  1,023
  1,084
  1,148
  1,214
  1,283
  1,356
  1,431
Earnings before tax, $m
  -336
  -250
  -177
  -102
  -23
  61
  149
  242
  339
  441
  547
  676
  792
  912
  1,039
  1,170
  1,307
  1,450
  1,600
  1,756
  1,920
  2,091
  2,269
  2,457
  2,653
  2,859
  3,074
  3,301
  3,538
  3,787
  4,049
Tax expense, $m
  -7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  16
  40
  65
  92
  119
  148
  182
  214
  246
  280
  316
  353
  392
  432
  474
  518
  564
  613
  663
  716
  772
  830
  891
  955
  1,023
  1,093
Net income, $m
  -329
  -250
  -177
  -102
  -23
  45
  109
  177
  248
  322
  399
  493
  578
  666
  758
  854
  954
  1,059
  1,168
  1,282
  1,401
  1,526
  1,657
  1,793
  1,937
  2,087
  2,244
  2,409
  2,583
  2,765
  2,956

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,725
  3,085
  3,472
  3,882
  4,314
  4,767
  5,242
  5,738
  6,256
  6,795
  7,356
  7,939
  8,545
  9,175
  9,830
  10,510
  11,218
  11,953
  12,718
  13,515
  14,344
  15,207
  16,107
  17,046
  18,025
  19,047
  20,114
  21,229
  22,395
  23,613
  24,887
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,721
  3,085
  3,472
  3,882
  4,314
  4,767
  5,242
  5,738
  6,256
  6,795
  7,356
  7,939
  8,545
  9,175
  9,830
  10,510
  11,218
  11,953
  12,718
  13,515
  14,344
  15,207
  16,107
  17,046
  18,025
  19,047
  20,114
  21,229
  22,395
  23,613
  24,887
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
Average production assets, $m
  1,865
  2,114
  2,380
  2,661
  2,956
  3,267
  3,593
  3,933
  4,287
  4,657
  5,041
  5,441
  5,856
  6,288
  6,737
  7,203
  7,688
  8,192
  8,716
  9,262
  9,830
  10,422
  11,039
  11,682
  12,353
  13,053
  13,785
  14,549
  15,347
  16,182
  17,055
Working capital, $m
  143
  163
  184
  205
  228
  252
  277
  304
  331
  360
  389
  420
  452
  486
  520
  556
  594
  633
  673
  715
  759
  805
  852
  902
  954
  1,008
  1,064
  1,123
  1,185
  1,250
  1,317
Total debt, $m
  1,997
  2,267
  2,616
  2,985
  3,374
  3,782
  4,209
  4,656
  5,121
  5,606
  6,111
  6,636
  7,182
  7,749
  8,338
  8,950
  9,587
  10,249
  10,937
  11,654
  12,400
  13,178
  13,988
  14,832
  15,714
  16,634
  17,594
  18,597
  19,646
  20,742
  21,889
Total liabilities, $m
  2,507
  2,776
  3,125
  3,494
  3,883
  4,291
  4,718
  5,165
  5,630
  6,115
  6,620
  7,145
  7,691
  8,258
  8,847
  9,459
  10,096
  10,758
  11,446
  12,163
  12,909
  13,687
  14,497
  15,341
  16,223
  17,143
  18,103
  19,106
  20,155
  21,251
  22,398
Total equity, $m
  219
  308
  347
  388
  431
  477
  524
  574
  626
  679
  736
  794
  855
  918
  983
  1,051
  1,122
  1,195
  1,272
  1,351
  1,434
  1,521
  1,611
  1,705
  1,803
  1,905
  2,011
  2,123
  2,239
  2,361
  2,489
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,726
  3,084
  3,472
  3,882
  4,314
  4,768
  5,242
  5,739
  6,256
  6,794
  7,356
  7,939
  8,546
  9,176
  9,830
  10,510
  11,218
  11,953
  12,718
  13,514
  14,343
  15,208
  16,108
  17,046
  18,026
  19,048
  20,114
  21,229
  22,394
  23,612
  24,887
Debt-to-equity ratio
  9.119
  7.350
  7.530
  7.690
  7.820
  7.930
  8.030
  8.110
  8.190
  8.250
  8.310
  8.360
  8.400
  8.450
  8.480
  8.520
  8.550
  8.570
  8.600
  8.620
  8.650
  8.670
  8.680
  8.700
  8.720
  8.730
  8.750
  8.760
  8.770
  8.780
  8.800
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.079
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -329
  -250
  -177
  -102
  -23
  45
  109
  177
  248
  322
  399
  493
  578
  666
  758
  854
  954
  1,059
  1,168
  1,282
  1,401
  1,526
  1,657
  1,793
  1,937
  2,087
  2,244
  2,409
  2,583
  2,765
  2,956
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  171
  194
  216
  239
  264
  290
  317
  345
  375
  406
  438
  453
  488
  524
  561
  600
  641
  683
  726
  772
  819
  868
  920
  973
  1,029
  1,088
  1,149
  1,212
  1,279
  1,349
  1,421
Funds from operations, $m
  3
  -56
  39
  137
  241
  335
  426
  522
  623
  728
  837
  947
  1,066
  1,190
  1,319
  1,454
  1,595
  1,741
  1,894
  2,054
  2,220
  2,395
  2,577
  2,767
  2,966
  3,175
  3,393
  3,622
  3,862
  4,113
  4,377
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  62
  64
  67
Cash from operations, $m
  4
  -75
  19
  116
  218
  311
  401
  496
  595
  699
  808
  916
  1,034
  1,157
  1,285
  1,418
  1,557
  1,702
  1,854
  2,012
  2,177
  2,349
  2,529
  2,717
  2,914
  3,120
  3,336
  3,563
  3,800
  4,049
  4,310
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -155
  -176
  -198
  -222
  -246
  -272
  -299
  -328
  -357
  -388
  -420
  -453
  -488
  -524
  -561
  -600
  -641
  -683
  -726
  -772
  -819
  -868
  -920
  -973
  -1,029
  -1,088
  -1,149
  -1,212
  -1,279
  -1,349
New CAPEX, $m
  -139
  -250
  -266
  -281
  -296
  -311
  -325
  -340
  -355
  -369
  -384
  -400
  -415
  -432
  -449
  -466
  -485
  -504
  -524
  -546
  -568
  -592
  -617
  -643
  -671
  -700
  -731
  -764
  -799
  -835
  -873
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -154
  -405
  -442
  -479
  -518
  -557
  -597
  -639
  -683
  -726
  -772
  -820
  -868
  -920
  -973
  -1,027
  -1,085
  -1,145
  -1,207
  -1,272
  -1,340
  -1,411
  -1,485
  -1,563
  -1,644
  -1,729
  -1,819
  -1,913
  -2,011
  -2,114
  -2,222
Free cash flow, $m
  -150
  -480
  -423
  -363
  -299
  -247
  -197
  -144
  -87
  -28
  35
  96
  165
  237
  312
  391
  472
  558
  647
  740
  837
  938
  1,044
  1,154
  1,270
  1,391
  1,517
  1,650
  1,789
  1,935
  2,088
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  209
  274
  349
  369
  389
  408
  427
  447
  466
  485
  505
  525
  546
  567
  589
  612
  637
  662
  689
  717
  746
  777
  810
  845
  881
  920
  961
  1,003
  1,049
  1,096
  1,147
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -2
  340
  215
  143
  66
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  206
  614
  564
  512
  455
  409
  427
  447
  466
  485
  505
  525
  546
  567
  589
  612
  637
  662
  689
  717
  746
  777
  810
  845
  881
  920
  961
  1,003
  1,049
  1,096
  1,147
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  56
  133
  141
  148
  155
  162
  231
  303
  379
  458
  540
  621
  711
  804
  901
  1,003
  1,109
  1,220
  1,335
  1,456
  1,583
  1,715
  1,854
  1,999
  2,151
  2,310
  2,478
  2,653
  2,838
  3,031
  3,235
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  385
  -340
  -215
  -143
  -66
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -127
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -206
  -74
  5
  89
  117
  183
  253
  327
  404
  484
  563
  650
  741
  836
  935
  1,038
  1,146
  1,259
  1,377
  1,500
  1,629
  1,764
  1,905
  2,053
  2,208
  2,371
  2,542
  2,721
  2,909
  3,107
Discount rate, %
 
  14.60
  15.33
  16.10
  16.90
  17.75
  18.63
  19.57
  20.54
  21.57
  22.65
  23.78
  24.97
  26.22
  27.53
  28.91
  30.35
  31.87
  33.46
  35.14
  36.89
  38.74
  40.68
  42.71
  44.84
  47.09
  49.44
  51.91
  54.51
  57.23
  60.10
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -180
  -56
  3
  48
  52
  66
  73
  73
  70
  63
  54
  45
  36
  28
  21
  15
  10
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  65.0
  52.3
  45.7
  43.2
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1
  43.1

Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. is a producer of specialty hydrocarbon products in North America. The Company operates through three segments: specialty products, fuel products and oilfield services. In its specialty products segment, the Company processes crude oil and other feedstocks into a range of customized lubricating oils, white mineral oils, solvents, petrolatums and waxes. Its specialty products are sold to domestic and international customers using its products as raw material components for basic industrial, consumer and automotive goods. It also blends and market specialty products through its Royal Purple, Bel-Ray, TruFuel and Quantum brands. In its fuel products segment, the Company processes crude oil into a range of fuel and fuel-related products, including gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, asphalt and heavy fuel oils, and resells purchased crude oil to third-party customers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.8
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 2.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 149.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -4.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -14.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -59%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 910%
Total Debt to Equity 911.9%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -7.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.9%
Return On Total Capital -14.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.3%
Return On Equity -80%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -37.2%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 11.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
EBITDA Margin -1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Operating Margin -4.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -9.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.1%
Net Profit Margin -9.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.8%
Effective Tax Rate 2.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Payout Ratio -17.3%

CLMT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CLMT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3599 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Calumet Specialty Products Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Calumet Specialty Products Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CLMT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.6%, whose default value for CLMT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Calumet Specialty Products Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Calumet Specialty Products Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CLMT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 77.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1012 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CLMT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.9% for Calumet Specialty Products Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Calumet Specialty Products Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CLMT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CLMT are equal to 51.8%.

Life of production assets of 12 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Calumet Specialty Products Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CLMT is equal to 4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $219 million for Calumet Specialty Products Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 80.217 million for Calumet Specialty Products Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Calumet Specialty Products Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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Financial statements of CLMT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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