Intrinsic value of Clean Energy Fuels - CLNE

Previous Close

$2.24

  Intrinsic Value

$0.71

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-68%

  Value-price divergence*

-25%

Previous close

$2.24

 
Intrinsic value

$0.71

 
Up/down potential

-68%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-25%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CLNE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.95
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  403
  411
  421
  431
  443
  457
  472
  488
  505
  524
  544
  565
  588
  613
  639
  666
  696
  726
  759
  794
  830
  869
  909
  952
  997
  1,045
  1,095
  1,147
  1,202
  1,261
  1,322
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  456
  466
  478
  491
  505
  521
  539
  558
  578
  600
  614
  639
  665
  694
  724
  755
  789
  824
  862
  901
  943
  987
  1,034
  1,083
  1,134
  1,189
  1,246
  1,306
  1,369
  1,436
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  386
  456
  466
  478
  491
  505
  521
  539
  558
  578
  600
  614
  639
  665
  694
  724
  755
  789
  824
  862
  901
  943
  987
  1,034
  1,083
  1,134
  1,189
  1,246
  1,306
  1,369
  1,436
Operating income, $m
  17
  -45
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -51
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -114
EBITDA, $m
  76
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
Interest expense (income), $m
  30
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
Earnings before tax, $m
  -12
  -65
  -67
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -82
  -85
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -195
Tax expense, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -12
  -65
  -67
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -82
  -85
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -195

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  110
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  897
  803
  821
  842
  866
  892
  921
  953
  987
  1,023
  1,062
  1,104
  1,149
  1,197
  1,248
  1,301
  1,358
  1,419
  1,483
  1,550
  1,621
  1,697
  1,776
  1,859
  1,947
  2,040
  2,138
  2,240
  2,349
  2,462
  2,582
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  787
  803
  821
  842
  866
  892
  921
  953
  987
  1,023
  1,062
  1,104
  1,149
  1,197
  1,248
  1,301
  1,358
  1,419
  1,483
  1,550
  1,621
  1,697
  1,776
  1,859
  1,947
  2,040
  2,138
  2,240
  2,349
  2,462
  2,582
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.512
  0.512
  0.513
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.513
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
Average production assets, $m
  541
  552
  564
  579
  595
  613
  633
  655
  678
  703
  730
  759
  790
  822
  857
  894
  933
  975
  1,019
  1,065
  1,114
  1,166
  1,220
  1,278
  1,338
  1,402
  1,469
  1,539
  1,614
  1,692
  1,774
Working capital, $m
  173
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  81
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  155
  163
  170
  179
  187
  196
  206
  216
  226
Total debt, $m
  312
  314
  324
  336
  348
  362
  378
  395
  413
  432
  453
  476
  500
  526
  553
  582
  612
  645
  679
  715
  753
  793
  836
  881
  928
  977
  1,030
  1,085
  1,143
  1,204
  1,268
Total liabilities, $m
  428
  430
  440
  452
  464
  478
  494
  511
  529
  548
  569
  592
  616
  642
  669
  698
  728
  761
  795
  831
  869
  909
  952
  997
  1,044
  1,093
  1,146
  1,201
  1,259
  1,320
  1,384
Total equity, $m
  469
  373
  381
  391
  402
  414
  427
  442
  458
  475
  493
  512
  533
  555
  579
  604
  630
  658
  688
  719
  752
  787
  824
  863
  904
  947
  992
  1,040
  1,090
  1,143
  1,198
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  897
  803
  821
  843
  866
  892
  921
  953
  987
  1,023
  1,062
  1,104
  1,149
  1,197
  1,248
  1,302
  1,358
  1,419
  1,483
  1,550
  1,621
  1,696
  1,776
  1,860
  1,948
  2,040
  2,138
  2,241
  2,349
  2,463
  2,582
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.665
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
  0.990
  1.000
  1.010
  1.010
  1.020
  1.030
  1.030
  1.040
  1.040
  1.050
  1.050
  1.060
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.456
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -12
  -65
  -67
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -82
  -85
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -195
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  59
  61
  62
  63
  65
  67
  68
  70
  73
  75
  78
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
Funds from operations, $m
  67
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
Change in working capital, $m
  21
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
Cash from operations, $m
  46
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -51
  -52
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
New CAPEX, $m
  -24
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
Cash from investing activities, $m
  1
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -128
  -135
  -141
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -189
  -198
  -208
  -218
  -229
  -240
Free cash flow, $m
  47
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -179
  -188
  -198
  -208
  -219
  -230
  -242
  -254
  -267
  -280
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -157
  8
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  104
  73
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  104
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
  139
  146
  153
  161
  169
  177
  186
  196
  206
  216
  227
  239
  251
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -56
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
  122
  128
  135
  141
  149
  157
  164
  173
  182
  191
  201
  211
  222
  233
  246
  258
  271
  285
  300
  315
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -8
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -166
  -73
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -196
  -206
  -216
  -227
  -239
  -251
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  104
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  45
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -187
  -196
  -206
  -216
Discount rate, %
 
  6.70
  7.04
  7.39
  7.76
  8.14
  8.55
  8.98
  9.43
  9.90
  10.39
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.63
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.12
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
  21.61
  22.69
  23.82
  25.01
  26.26
  27.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  42
  -53
  -51
  -48
  -46
  -43
  -40
  -37
  -34
  -31
  -28
  -25
  -22
  -19
  -16
  -14
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  77.8
  60.3
  46.7
  36.0
  27.7
  21.2
  16.3
  12.4
  9.5
  7.2
  5.6
  4.4
  3.4
  2.6
  2.0
  1.6
  1.2
  0.9
  0.7
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0

Clean Energy Fuels Corp. provides natural gas as an alternative fuel for vehicle fleets in the United States and Canada. The company supplies compressed natural gas (CNG), liquefied natural gas (LNG), and renewable natural gas (RNG) for light, medium, and heavy-duty vehicles. It also designs, builds, operates, services, repairs, and maintains fueling stations. In addition, the company manufactures, sells, and services non-lubricated natural gas fueling compressors and other equipment used in CNG stations and LNG stations; provides assessment, design, and modification solutions to operators with code-compliant service and maintenance facilities for natural gas vehicle fleets; transports and sells CNG to industrial and institutional energy users; and processes and sells RNG, which is used as vehicle fuel. Further, it sells tradable credits comprising natural gas and RNG as a vehicle fuel, such as Low Carbon Fuel Standards and Renewable Identification Numbers Credits; and helps its customers in acquiring and financing natural gas vehicles, as well as obtaining federal, state, and local tax credits grants and incentives. The company serves heavy-duty trucking, airport, refuse, and public transit markets; and industrial and institutional energy users, as well as government fleets. As of December 31, 2015, it served approximately 986 fleet customers operating approximately 44,152 natural gas vehicles; and owned, operated, or supplied approximately 570 natural gas fueling stations in 42 states in the United States, as well as British Columbia and Ontario in Canada. The company was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -27.2
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -52.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -22.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 18
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 65.2%
Total Debt to Equity 66.5%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.5%
Return On Total Capital -1.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -8%
Return On Equity -3.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.4%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 36.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.4%
EBITDA Margin 19.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Operating Margin 4.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.6%
Net Profit Margin -3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.6%
Effective Tax Rate -16.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

CLNE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CLNE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $403 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Clean Energy Fuels. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Clean Energy Fuels. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CLNE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.7%, whose default value for CLNE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Clean Energy Fuels, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Clean Energy Fuels.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CLNE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 110.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CLNE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.8% for Clean Energy Fuels.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Clean Energy Fuels. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CLNE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CLNE are equal to 134.2%.

Life of production assets of 10.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Clean Energy Fuels operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CLNE is equal to 17.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $469 million for Clean Energy Fuels - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 131.993 million for Clean Energy Fuels is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Clean Energy Fuels at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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Stock chart of CLNE Financial statements of CLNE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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