Intrinsic value of Clearwater Paper - CLW

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$46.95

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$46.95

 
Intrinsic value

$41.00

 
Up/down potential

-13%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CLW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -0.97
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,735
  1,770
  1,810
  1,857
  1,909
  1,967
  2,031
  2,100
  2,175
  2,255
  2,342
  2,434
  2,533
  2,638
  2,750
  2,869
  2,994
  3,128
  3,268
  3,417
  3,574
  3,740
  3,914
  4,099
  4,293
  4,497
  4,712
  4,939
  5,177
  5,428
  5,691
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  520
  531
  544
  559
  575
  593
  612
  633
  656
  680
  681
  709
  739
  770
  803
  838
  876
  915
  957
  1,000
  1,047
  1,096
  1,147
  1,202
  1,259
  1,319
  1,382
  1,449
  1,519
  1,593
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  1,171
  1,200
  1,230
  1,261
  1,292
  1,324
  1,357
  1,391
  1,426
  1,462
  1,498
  1,536
  1,574
  1,614
  1,654
  1,695
  1,738
  1,781
  1,826
  1,871
  1,918
  1,966
  2,015
  2,066
  2,117
  2,170
  2,224
  2,280
  2,337
  2,395
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,624
  1,691
  1,731
  1,774
  1,820
  1,867
  1,917
  1,969
  2,024
  2,082
  2,142
  2,179
  2,245
  2,313
  2,384
  2,457
  2,533
  2,614
  2,696
  2,783
  2,871
  2,965
  3,062
  3,162
  3,268
  3,376
  3,489
  3,606
  3,729
  3,856
  3,988
Operating income, $m
  111
  79
  79
  83
  90
  100
  113
  130
  150
  173
  200
  254
  288
  326
  367
  412
  461
  514
  572
  635
  702
  775
  853
  936
  1,025
  1,121
  1,223
  1,332
  1,448
  1,571
  1,703
EBITDA, $m
  202
  178
  180
  185
  195
  207
  223
  243
  266
  293
  323
  357
  395
  437
  482
  533
  587
  646
  710
  779
  853
  932
  1,017
  1,109
  1,206
  1,310
  1,421
  1,540
  1,666
  1,800
  1,942
Interest expense (income), $m
  27
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  95
  101
  107
  113
  119
  126
  133
Earnings before tax, $m
  81
  50
  50
  52
  57
  66
  78
  93
  111
  132
  156
  209
  240
  274
  312
  354
  400
  450
  504
  563
  626
  694
  767
  846
  930
  1,020
  1,116
  1,219
  1,329
  1,445
  1,570
Tax expense, $m
  31
  14
  13
  14
  16
  18
  21
  25
  30
  36
  42
  56
  65
  74
  84
  96
  108
  122
  136
  152
  169
  187
  207
  228
  251
  275
  301
  329
  359
  390
  424
Net income, $m
  50
  37
  36
  38
  42
  48
  57
  68
  81
  96
  114
  152
  175
  200
  228
  259
  292
  329
  368
  411
  457
  507
  560
  617
  679
  745
  815
  890
  970
  1,055
  1,146

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,684
  1,693
  1,732
  1,777
  1,827
  1,882
  1,943
  2,009
  2,081
  2,158
  2,241
  2,330
  2,424
  2,525
  2,632
  2,745
  2,866
  2,993
  3,128
  3,270
  3,420
  3,579
  3,746
  3,922
  4,108
  4,303
  4,509
  4,726
  4,954
  5,194
  5,446
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,661
  1,693
  1,732
  1,777
  1,827
  1,882
  1,943
  2,009
  2,081
  2,158
  2,241
  2,330
  2,424
  2,525
  2,632
  2,745
  2,866
  2,993
  3,128
  3,270
  3,420
  3,579
  3,746
  3,922
  4,108
  4,303
  4,509
  4,726
  4,954
  5,194
  5,446
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
Average production assets, $m
  936
  954
  976
  1,001
  1,029
  1,060
  1,094
  1,132
  1,172
  1,216
  1,262
  1,312
  1,365
  1,422
  1,482
  1,546
  1,614
  1,686
  1,762
  1,842
  1,926
  2,016
  2,110
  2,209
  2,314
  2,424
  2,540
  2,662
  2,790
  2,925
  3,068
Working capital, $m
  80
  196
  201
  206
  212
  218
  225
  233
  241
  250
  260
  270
  281
  293
  305
  318
  332
  347
  363
  379
  397
  415
  434
  455
  476
  499
  523
  548
  575
  602
  632
Total debt, $m
  728
  728
  756
  788
  824
  864
  907
  955
  1,006
  1,061
  1,121
  1,184
  1,252
  1,324
  1,401
  1,482
  1,569
  1,660
  1,756
  1,858
  1,966
  2,080
  2,200
  2,326
  2,459
  2,599
  2,747
  2,902
  3,066
  3,238
  3,419
Total liabilities, $m
  1,214
  1,214
  1,242
  1,274
  1,310
  1,350
  1,393
  1,441
  1,492
  1,547
  1,607
  1,670
  1,738
  1,810
  1,887
  1,968
  2,055
  2,146
  2,242
  2,344
  2,452
  2,566
  2,686
  2,812
  2,945
  3,085
  3,233
  3,388
  3,552
  3,724
  3,905
Total equity, $m
  470
  479
  490
  503
  517
  533
  550
  569
  589
  611
  634
  659
  686
  714
  745
  777
  811
  847
  885
  925
  968
  1,013
  1,060
  1,110
  1,162
  1,218
  1,276
  1,337
  1,402
  1,470
  1,541
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,684
  1,693
  1,732
  1,777
  1,827
  1,883
  1,943
  2,010
  2,081
  2,158
  2,241
  2,329
  2,424
  2,524
  2,632
  2,745
  2,866
  2,993
  3,127
  3,269
  3,420
  3,579
  3,746
  3,922
  4,107
  4,303
  4,509
  4,725
  4,954
  5,194
  5,446
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.549
  1.520
  1.540
  1.570
  1.590
  1.620
  1.650
  1.680
  1.710
  1.740
  1.770
  1.800
  1.830
  1.850
  1.880
  1.910
  1.930
  1.960
  1.980
  2.010
  2.030
  2.050
  2.080
  2.100
  2.120
  2.130
  2.150
  2.170
  2.190
  2.200
  2.220
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  50
  37
  36
  38
  42
  48
  57
  68
  81
  96
  114
  152
  175
  200
  228
  259
  292
  329
  368
  411
  457
  507
  560
  617
  679
  745
  815
  890
  970
  1,055
  1,146
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  91
  99
  101
  103
  105
  107
  110
  113
  116
  119
  123
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  150
  157
  165
  173
  181
  189
  198
  208
  218
  229
  240
Funds from operations, $m
  173
  136
  137
  140
  147
  156
  167
  181
  197
  216
  237
  255
  282
  311
  344
  379
  418
  460
  506
  555
  607
  664
  725
  790
  860
  934
  1,013
  1,098
  1,188
  1,284
  1,386
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
Cash from operations, $m
  173
  181
  132
  135
  141
  149
  160
  173
  189
  207
  228
  244
  271
  300
  331
  366
  404
  445
  490
  538
  590
  646
  706
  770
  838
  911
  989
  1,073
  1,161
  1,256
  1,356
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -73
  -75
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -150
  -157
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -189
  -198
  -208
  -218
  -229
New CAPEX, $m
  -155
  -18
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -223
  -91
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -208
  -218
  -229
  -239
  -251
  -264
  -278
  -291
  -305
  -320
  -336
  -353
  -371
Free cash flow, $m
  -50
  90
  36
  34
  35
  38
  43
  50
  60
  72
  86
  96
  115
  136
  160
  187
  216
  248
  283
  320
  362
  406
  454
  506
  561
  620
  684
  752
  825
  903
  986
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  135
  23
  28
  32
  36
  40
  44
  47
  51
  55
  59
  64
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
  91
  97
  102
  108
  114
  120
  126
  133
  140
  148
  155
  164
  172
  181
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -65
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  67
  23
  28
  32
  36
  40
  44
  47
  51
  55
  59
  64
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
  91
  97
  102
  108
  114
  120
  126
  133
  140
  148
  155
  164
  172
  181
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  17
  113
  64
  66
  70
  77
  86
  98
  111
  127
  145
  159
  183
  208
  237
  268
  302
  339
  379
  422
  469
  520
  574
  632
  694
  761
  832
  908
  989
  1,075
  1,167
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  5
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -71
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  104
  53
  53
  56
  62
  69
  79
  91
  105
  122
  134
  156
  180
  206
  236
  268
  303
  341
  382
  427
  475
  526
  582
  642
  705
  773
  846
  924
  1,007
  1,095
Discount rate, %
 
  8.40
  8.82
  9.26
  9.72
  10.21
  10.72
  11.26
  11.82
  12.41
  13.03
  13.68
  14.37
  15.09
  15.84
  16.63
  17.46
  18.34
  19.25
  20.22
  21.23
  22.29
  23.40
  24.57
  25.80
  27.09
  28.45
  29.87
  31.36
  32.93
  34.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  96
  45
  41
  39
  38
  37
  37
  37
  37
  36
  33
  31
  29
  26
  23
  20
  17
  14
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Clearwater Paper Corporation produces and sells private label tissue and bleached paperboard products in the United States and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Consumer Products, and Pulp and Paperboard. The Consumer Products segment manufactures and sells a line of at-home tissue products, including bathroom tissues, paper towels, facial tissues, and napkins; recycled fiber value grade products; and away-from-home products, such as conventional one- and two-ply bath tissues, two-ply paper towels, hard wound towels, and dispenser napkins. This segment sells its products to retailers and wholesale distributors, including grocery, drug, mass merchants, and discount stores. The Pulp and Paperboard segment provides bleached paperboard, folding cartons, liquid packaging paperboards, cups, plates, commercial printing grades, and hardwood and softwood pulp products. It sells its products to packaging converters through sales offices; and to commercial printers through distribution. The company also provides custom sheeting, slitting, and cutting services. Clearwater Paper Corporation is headquartered in Spokane, Washington.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Clearwater Paper (CLW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15.5
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 43
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 20.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 126.2%
Total Debt to Equity 154.9%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Return On Total Capital 4.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Return On Equity 10.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 13.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.5%
EBITDA Margin 11.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Operating Margin 6.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Net Profit Margin 2.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Effective Tax Rate 38.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 63.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

CLW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CLW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1735 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Clearwater Paper. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Clearwater Paper. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CLW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.4%, whose default value for CLW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Clearwater Paper, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Clearwater Paper.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CLW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 29.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1142 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CLW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.1% for Clearwater Paper.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Clearwater Paper. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CLW stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CLW are equal to 53.9%.

Life of production assets of 12.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Clearwater Paper operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CLW is equal to 11.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $470 million for Clearwater Paper - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 16.608 million for Clearwater Paper is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Clearwater Paper at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Clearwater Paper posts 1Q profit   [Apr-20-17 04:34PM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for February 21st   [Feb-21-17 10:28AM  Zacks]
▶ Clearwater Paper Acquires Manchester Industries   [Dec-16-16 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Clearwater Paper Corp (CLW) Hedge Funds Are Snapping Up   [Dec-09-16 01:22AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Clearwater Paper posts 1Q profit   [Apr-28-16 06:48PM  AP]
▶ Clearwater Paper Adds Two New Board Members   [06:30AM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of CLW Financial statements of CLW Annual reports of CLW
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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