Intrinsic value of Clorox - CLX

Previous Close

$131.81

  Intrinsic Value

$71.38

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-46%

  Value-price divergence*

-16%

Previous close

$131.81

 
Intrinsic value

$71.38

 
Up/down potential

-46%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-16%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CLX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 17.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.68
  2.90
  3.11
  3.30
  3.47
  3.62
  3.76
  3.88
  4.00
  4.10
  4.19
  4.27
  4.34
  4.41
  4.47
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.72
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
Revenue, $m
  5,973
  6,146
  6,337
  6,546
  6,774
  7,019
  7,283
  7,566
  7,868
  8,190
  8,533
  8,897
  9,284
  9,693
  10,126
  10,583
  11,067
  11,577
  12,115
  12,683
  13,281
  13,911
  14,575
  15,273
  16,008
  16,782
  17,596
  18,452
  19,352
  20,298
  21,293
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  4,692
  4,834
  4,990
  5,159
  5,341
  5,538
  5,748
  5,973
  6,213
  6,468
  6,619
  6,907
  7,211
  7,533
  7,874
  8,233
  8,613
  9,013
  9,436
  9,881
  10,349
  10,843
  11,363
  11,910
  12,485
  13,091
  13,728
  14,397
  15,101
  15,841
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  395
  404
  415
  425
  436
  446
  458
  469
  481
  493
  505
  518
  531
  544
  558
  572
  586
  600
  615
  631
  647
  663
  679
  696
  714
  732
  750
  769
  788
  808
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,940
  5,087
  5,238
  5,405
  5,584
  5,777
  5,984
  6,206
  6,442
  6,694
  6,961
  7,124
  7,425
  7,742
  8,077
  8,432
  8,805
  9,199
  9,613
  10,051
  10,512
  10,996
  11,506
  12,042
  12,606
  13,199
  13,823
  14,478
  15,166
  15,889
  16,649
Operating income, $m
  1,033
  1,059
  1,098
  1,142
  1,190
  1,242
  1,298
  1,360
  1,426
  1,496
  1,572
  1,773
  1,859
  1,951
  2,048
  2,152
  2,262
  2,378
  2,501
  2,632
  2,769
  2,915
  3,069
  3,231
  3,402
  3,583
  3,773
  3,974
  4,186
  4,409
  4,644
EBITDA, $m
  1,196
  1,276
  1,319
  1,365
  1,417
  1,473
  1,534
  1,599
  1,670
  1,746
  1,827
  1,914
  2,006
  2,105
  2,209
  2,320
  2,437
  2,562
  2,693
  2,833
  2,980
  3,136
  3,300
  3,473
  3,656
  3,849
  4,052
  4,267
  4,493
  4,731
  4,982
Interest expense (income), $m
  78
  62
  66
  70
  74
  79
  84
  90
  96
  102
  109
  116
  124
  132
  141
  150
  160
  170
  181
  192
  204
  217
  230
  244
  259
  275
  291
  308
  326
  346
  366
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,033
  997
  1,033
  1,072
  1,115
  1,163
  1,214
  1,270
  1,330
  1,394
  1,463
  1,656
  1,735
  1,818
  1,907
  2,002
  2,102
  2,208
  2,320
  2,439
  2,565
  2,698
  2,838
  2,987
  3,143
  3,308
  3,482
  3,666
  3,859
  4,063
  4,278
Tax expense, $m
  330
  269
  279
  289
  301
  314
  328
  343
  359
  376
  395
  447
  468
  491
  515
  540
  568
  596
  627
  659
  693
  728
  766
  806
  849
  893
  940
  990
  1,042
  1,097
  1,155
Net income, $m
  701
  728
  754
  782
  814
  849
  886
  927
  971
  1,018
  1,068
  1,209
  1,266
  1,327
  1,392
  1,461
  1,534
  1,612
  1,694
  1,781
  1,872
  1,969
  2,072
  2,180
  2,294
  2,415
  2,542
  2,676
  2,817
  2,966
  3,123

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  418
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,573
  4,274
  4,407
  4,552
  4,710
  4,881
  5,065
  5,261
  5,471
  5,696
  5,934
  6,187
  6,456
  6,740
  7,041
  7,360
  7,696
  8,051
  8,425
  8,820
  9,236
  9,674
  10,135
  10,621
  11,132
  11,670
  12,236
  12,831
  13,457
  14,115
  14,807
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,155
  4,274
  4,407
  4,552
  4,710
  4,881
  5,065
  5,261
  5,471
  5,696
  5,934
  6,187
  6,456
  6,740
  7,041
  7,360
  7,696
  8,051
  8,425
  8,820
  9,236
  9,674
  10,135
  10,621
  11,132
  11,670
  12,236
  12,831
  13,457
  14,115
  14,807
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
Average production assets, $m
  1,647
  1,696
  1,749
  1,807
  1,869
  1,937
  2,010
  2,088
  2,172
  2,261
  2,355
  2,456
  2,562
  2,675
  2,795
  2,921
  3,054
  3,195
  3,344
  3,500
  3,666
  3,839
  4,023
  4,215
  4,418
  4,632
  4,856
  5,093
  5,341
  5,602
  5,877
Working capital, $m
  -295
  92
  95
  98
  102
  105
  109
  113
  118
  123
  128
  133
  139
  145
  152
  159
  166
  174
  182
  190
  199
  209
  219
  229
  240
  252
  264
  277
  290
  304
  319
Total debt, $m
  2,195
  1,883
  1,998
  2,125
  2,262
  2,410
  2,570
  2,741
  2,924
  3,119
  3,327
  3,547
  3,781
  4,028
  4,290
  4,567
  4,859
  5,168
  5,494
  5,837
  6,199
  6,580
  6,982
  7,404
  7,849
  8,317
  8,810
  9,327
  9,872
  10,444
  11,046
Total liabilities, $m
  4,031
  3,719
  3,834
  3,961
  4,098
  4,246
  4,406
  4,577
  4,760
  4,955
  5,163
  5,383
  5,617
  5,864
  6,126
  6,403
  6,695
  7,004
  7,330
  7,673
  8,035
  8,416
  8,818
  9,240
  9,685
  10,153
  10,646
  11,163
  11,708
  12,280
  12,882
Total equity, $m
  542
  556
  573
  592
  612
  635
  658
  684
  711
  740
  771
  804
  839
  876
  915
  957
  1,000
  1,047
  1,095
  1,147
  1,201
  1,258
  1,318
  1,381
  1,447
  1,517
  1,591
  1,668
  1,749
  1,835
  1,925
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,573
  4,275
  4,407
  4,553
  4,710
  4,881
  5,064
  5,261
  5,471
  5,695
  5,934
  6,187
  6,456
  6,740
  7,041
  7,360
  7,695
  8,051
  8,425
  8,820
  9,236
  9,674
  10,136
  10,621
  11,132
  11,670
  12,237
  12,831
  13,457
  14,115
  14,807
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.050
  3.390
  3.490
  3.590
  3.690
  3.800
  3.900
  4.010
  4.110
  4.210
  4.310
  4.410
  4.500
  4.600
  4.690
  4.770
  4.860
  4.940
  5.020
  5.090
  5.160
  5.230
  5.300
  5.360
  5.420
  5.480
  5.540
  5.590
  5.640
  5.690
  5.740
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.127
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  701
  728
  754
  782
  814
  849
  886
  927
  971
  1,018
  1,068
  1,209
  1,266
  1,327
  1,392
  1,461
  1,534
  1,612
  1,694
  1,781
  1,872
  1,969
  2,072
  2,180
  2,294
  2,415
  2,542
  2,676
  2,817
  2,966
  3,123
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  163
  217
  220
  223
  227
  231
  235
  240
  244
  250
  255
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  192
  201
  211
  221
  231
  242
  254
  266
  279
  293
  307
  322
  338
Funds from operations, $m
  821
  945
  974
  1,006
  1,041
  1,080
  1,121
  1,167
  1,215
  1,267
  1,323
  1,350
  1,414
  1,481
  1,553
  1,629
  1,710
  1,795
  1,886
  1,982
  2,083
  2,190
  2,303
  2,422
  2,548
  2,681
  2,821
  2,969
  3,124
  3,288
  3,461
Change in working capital, $m
  -47
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
Cash from operations, $m
  868
  942
  971
  1,003
  1,038
  1,076
  1,117
  1,162
  1,211
  1,262
  1,318
  1,345
  1,408
  1,475
  1,547
  1,622
  1,703
  1,788
  1,878
  1,973
  2,074
  2,181
  2,293
  2,412
  2,537
  2,669
  2,809
  2,956
  3,111
  3,274
  3,446
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -95
  -97
  -101
  -104
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -184
  -192
  -201
  -211
  -221
  -231
  -242
  -254
  -266
  -279
  -293
  -307
  -322
New CAPEX, $m
  -231
  -49
  -53
  -58
  -63
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -89
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -126
  -133
  -141
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -193
  -203
  -214
  -225
  -236
  -248
  -261
  -275
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -205
  -144
  -150
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -194
  -203
  -214
  -225
  -236
  -248
  -260
  -273
  -287
  -301
  -317
  -333
  -349
  -366
  -385
  -404
  -424
  -445
  -468
  -491
  -515
  -541
  -568
  -597
Free cash flow, $m
  663
  798
  821
  845
  871
  901
  933
  969
  1,007
  1,049
  1,093
  1,109
  1,160
  1,215
  1,273
  1,335
  1,401
  1,471
  1,546
  1,625
  1,708
  1,796
  1,889
  1,988
  2,092
  2,202
  2,318
  2,441
  2,570
  2,706
  2,849
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -125
  106
  116
  126
  137
  148
  160
  171
  183
  195
  207
  220
  234
  248
  262
  277
  292
  309
  326
  343
  362
  381
  401
  423
  445
  468
  492
  518
  545
  573
  602
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -108
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -233
  106
  116
  126
  137
  148
  160
  171
  183
  195
  207
  220
  234
  248
  262
  277
  292
  309
  326
  343
  362
  381
  401
  423
  445
  468
  492
  518
  545
  573
  602
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  429
  904
  936
  971
  1,009
  1,049
  1,093
  1,140
  1,190
  1,244
  1,301
  1,329
  1,394
  1,462
  1,535
  1,612
  1,694
  1,780
  1,871
  1,968
  2,070
  2,177
  2,291
  2,411
  2,537
  2,670
  2,810
  2,958
  3,114
  3,278
  3,451
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -245
  -14
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  890
  919
  952
  988
  1,027
  1,069
  1,114
  1,163
  1,214
  1,270
  1,296
  1,359
  1,425
  1,496
  1,571
  1,650
  1,734
  1,823
  1,917
  2,016
  2,120
  2,231
  2,347
  2,470
  2,600
  2,737
  2,881
  3,033
  3,193
  3,361
Discount rate, %
 
  6.70
  7.04
  7.39
  7.76
  8.14
  8.55
  8.98
  9.43
  9.90
  10.39
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.63
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.12
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
  21.61
  22.69
  23.82
  25.01
  26.26
  27.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  834
  802
  769
  733
  694
  653
  610
  566
  519
  472
  415
  370
  325
  283
  242
  205
  170
  139
  112
  88
  68
  52
  38
  28
  20
  13
  9
  6
  4
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

The Clorox Company is a manufacturer and marketer of consumer and professional products. The Company sells its products primarily through mass retail outlets, e-commerce channels, wholesale distributors and medical supply distributors. The Company operates through four segments: Cleaning, Household, Lifestyle and International. Its Cleaning segment consists of laundry, home care and professional products marketed and sold in the United States. Its Household segment consists of charcoal, cat litter and plastic bags, wraps and container products marketed and sold in the United States. Its Lifestyle segment consists of food products, water-filtration systems and filters, and natural personal care products marketed and sold in the United States. Its International segment consists of products sold outside the United States. It markets some of the consumer brand names, such as namesake bleach and cleaning products, Pine-Sol cleaners, Liquid-Plumr clog removers and Kingsford charcoal.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Clorox (CLX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 24.3
Price to Sales 2.8
Price to Book 31.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 26.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 34.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 256.6%
Total Debt to Equity 405%
Interest Coverage 14
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 16.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 16%
Return On Total Capital 26.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.6%
Return On Equity 167.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 302%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 44.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.5%
EBITDA Margin 21.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.2%
Operating Margin 17.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 17.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.9%
Net Profit Margin 11.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Effective Tax Rate 31.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.4%
Payout Ratio 58.8%

CLX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CLX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5973 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Clorox. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Clorox. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CLX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.7%, whose default value for CLX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Clorox, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Clorox.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CLX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 76.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $385 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CLX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Clorox.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Clorox. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CLX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CLX are equal to 27.6%.

Life of production assets of 17.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Clorox operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CLX is equal to 1.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $542 million for Clorox - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 129.546 million for Clorox is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Clorox at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $17.1 billion.

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Financial statements of CLX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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