Intrinsic value of CIM Commerical Trust - CMCT

Previous Close

$15.45

  Intrinsic Value

$2.88

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-81%

  Value-price divergence*

+5%

Previous close

$15.45

 
Intrinsic value

$2.88

 
Up/down potential

-81%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+5%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as CMCT.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CMCT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -3.97
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  266
  271
  278
  285
  293
  302
  311
  322
  333
  346
  359
  373
  388
  404
  422
  440
  459
  480
  501
  524
  548
  573
  600
  628
  658
  689
  722
  757
  794
  832
  873
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  244
  249
  256
  263
  271
  280
  289
  299
  310
  322
  335
  349
  363
  379
  395
  412
  431
  450
  470
  492
  515
  539
  564
  591
  619
  649
  680
  713
  747
  784
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  239
  244
  249
  256
  263
  271
  280
  289
  299
  310
  322
  335
  349
  363
  379
  395
  412
  431
  450
  470
  492
  515
  539
  564
  591
  619
  649
  680
  713
  747
  784
Operating income, $m
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
EBITDA, $m
  99
  101
  103
  106
  109
  112
  116
  120
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  178
  187
  195
  204
  213
  223
  234
  245
  257
  269
  282
  295
  310
  325
Interest expense (income), $m
  33
  39
  39
  40
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
Earnings before tax, $m
  32
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  35
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  144
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,023
  1,911
  1,955
  2,005
  2,061
  2,124
  2,192
  2,267
  2,348
  2,435
  2,528
  2,628
  2,735
  2,849
  2,969
  3,097
  3,233
  3,377
  3,529
  3,689
  3,859
  4,038
  4,226
  4,425
  4,635
  4,855
  5,088
  5,332
  5,589
  5,860
  6,145
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,879
  1,911
  1,955
  2,005
  2,061
  2,124
  2,192
  2,267
  2,348
  2,435
  2,528
  2,628
  2,735
  2,849
  2,969
  3,097
  3,233
  3,377
  3,529
  3,689
  3,859
  4,038
  4,226
  4,425
  4,635
  4,855
  5,088
  5,332
  5,589
  5,860
  6,145
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
Average production assets, $m
  1,668
  1,701
  1,740
  1,785
  1,835
  1,891
  1,952
  2,018
  2,090
  2,168
  2,251
  2,340
  2,435
  2,536
  2,643
  2,757
  2,878
  3,006
  3,141
  3,284
  3,435
  3,594
  3,762
  3,939
  4,126
  4,322
  4,529
  4,747
  4,976
  5,217
  5,470
Working capital, $m
  0
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
Total debt, $m
  968
  986
  1,011
  1,039
  1,070
  1,106
  1,144
  1,186
  1,231
  1,280
  1,333
  1,389
  1,449
  1,513
  1,581
  1,653
  1,729
  1,810
  1,895
  1,985
  2,081
  2,181
  2,287
  2,399
  2,517
  2,641
  2,771
  2,909
  3,053
  3,205
  3,365
Total liabilities, $m
  1,056
  1,074
  1,099
  1,127
  1,158
  1,194
  1,232
  1,274
  1,319
  1,368
  1,421
  1,477
  1,537
  1,601
  1,669
  1,741
  1,817
  1,898
  1,983
  2,073
  2,169
  2,269
  2,375
  2,487
  2,605
  2,729
  2,859
  2,997
  3,141
  3,293
  3,453
Total equity, $m
  967
  837
  856
  878
  903
  930
  960
  993
  1,028
  1,066
  1,107
  1,151
  1,198
  1,248
  1,301
  1,357
  1,416
  1,479
  1,546
  1,616
  1,690
  1,768
  1,851
  1,938
  2,030
  2,127
  2,228
  2,335
  2,448
  2,567
  2,691
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,023
  1,911
  1,955
  2,005
  2,061
  2,124
  2,192
  2,267
  2,347
  2,434
  2,528
  2,628
  2,735
  2,849
  2,970
  3,098
  3,233
  3,377
  3,529
  3,689
  3,859
  4,037
  4,226
  4,425
  4,635
  4,856
  5,087
  5,332
  5,589
  5,860
  6,144
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.001
  1.180
  1.180
  1.180
  1.190
  1.190
  1.190
  1.190
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  35
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  72
  73
  75
  77
  79
  81
  84
  87
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  135
  142
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  186
  195
  205
  214
  225
  236
Funds from operations, $m
  36
  62
  64
  66
  67
  69
  72
  74
  77
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  119
  125
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
Change in working capital, $m
  -17
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
Cash from operations, $m
  53
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  73
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  102
  107
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  139
  145
  152
  159
  167
  174
  183
  191
  201
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -72
  -73
  -75
  -77
  -79
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -135
  -142
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -186
  -195
  -205
  -214
  -225
New CAPEX, $m
  -35
  -33
  -39
  -45
  -50
  -56
  -61
  -66
  -72
  -78
  -83
  -89
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -114
  -121
  -128
  -135
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -177
  -186
  -196
  -207
  -218
  -229
  -241
  -253
Cash from investing activities, $m
  30
  -105
  -112
  -120
  -127
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -159
  -168
  -176
  -186
  -196
  -206
  -216
  -228
  -240
  -252
  -265
  -278
  -293
  -307
  -323
  -339
  -356
  -374
  -393
  -413
  -434
  -455
  -478
Free cash flow, $m
  83
  -42
  -48
  -53
  -59
  -64
  -70
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -105
  -112
  -119
  -126
  -133
  -141
  -149
  -157
  -166
  -175
  -184
  -194
  -204
  -215
  -227
  -238
  -251
  -264
  -278
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  292
  18
  25
  28
  32
  35
  39
  42
  45
  49
  53
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  95
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  137
  145
  152
  160
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -289
  25
  30
  33
  36
  39
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  114
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
  156
  164
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -1
  43
  55
  61
  68
  74
  82
  88
  94
  101
  109
  115
  123
  130
  138
  146
  155
  164
  173
  183
  193
  204
  215
  226
  239
  251
  265
  278
  293
  308
  324
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  82
  0
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  329
  -25
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -164
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  144
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  119
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
Discount rate, %
 
  8.30
  8.72
  9.15
  9.61
  10.09
  10.59
  11.12
  11.68
  12.26
  12.88
  13.52
  14.20
  14.91
  15.65
  16.43
  17.26
  18.12
  19.02
  19.97
  20.97
  22.02
  23.12
  24.28
  25.49
  26.77
  28.11
  29.51
  30.99
  32.54
  34.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  110
  -20
  -19
  -19
  -18
  -17
  -16
  -15
  -13
  -12
  -11
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  97.8
  95.2
  92.5
  89.8
  86.9
  84.1
  81.2
  78.3
  75.5
  72.7
  69.9
  67.2
  64.5
  61.9
  59.4
  56.9
  54.5
  52.2
  50.0
  47.8
  45.8
  43.8
  41.8
  40.0
  38.2
  36.5
  34.9
  33.3
  31.8
  30.3

CIM Commercial Trust Corporation is a publicly owned real estate investment trust. The firm invests in the real estate markets of United States. It also engages in lending activities. CIM Commercial Trust Corporation was founded in 1993 and is based in Dallas, Texas. CIM Commercial Trust Corporation operates as a subsidiary of CIM Group, Inc.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CIM Commerical Trust (CMCT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 37.1
Price to Sales 4.9
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 24.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 72.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -7.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 100.1%
Total Debt to Equity 100.1%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Return On Total Capital 1.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Return On Equity 3.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 40.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.8%
EBITDA Margin 51.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.1%
Operating Margin 10.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 12%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Net Profit Margin 13.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Effective Tax Rate 3.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Payout Ratio 220%

CMCT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CMCT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $266 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CIM Commerical Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of CIM Commerical Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CMCT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.3%, whose default value for CMCT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CIM Commerical Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CIM Commerical Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CMCT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CMCT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4% for CIM Commerical Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CIM Commerical Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CMCT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CMCT are equal to 626.9%.

Life of production assets of 23.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CIM Commerical Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CMCT is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $967 million for CIM Commerical Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 84.076 million for CIM Commerical Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CIM Commerical Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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SCHW Charles Schwab 39.51 107.58  str.buy
BRT BRT Realty Tru 8.06 2.69  str.sell
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COMPANY NEWS

▶ CIM Commercial Trust posts 2Q profit   [Aug-10-17 08:16PM  Associated Press]
▶ CIM Commercial Trust Declares Special Dividend   [Apr-05-17 08:15AM  Business Wire]
▶ CIM Commercial Trust Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Sep-12-16 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ CIM Commercial Trust Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Jun-10-16 05:19PM  Business Wire]
▶ CIM Commercial Trust Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Mar-08-16 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ CIM Commercial Trust Announces 2015 Dividend Allocation   [Feb-04-16 02:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ CIM Commercial Trust Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Dec-10  04:21PM  Business Wire]
▶ 10-Q for CIM Commercial Trust Corp.   [Aug-12  08:12PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ CIM Commercial Trust Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Jun-12  11:09PM  Business Wire]
▶ 10-Q for CIM Commercial Trust Corp.   [May-13  08:11PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-K for CIM Commercial Trust Corp.   [May-04  08:12PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ CIM Commercial Trust Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Mar-06  04:36PM  at noodls]
Stock chart of CMCT Financial statements of CMCT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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