Intrinsic value of Cantel Medical - CMD

Previous Close

$105.03

  Intrinsic Value

$41.81

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-60%

Previous close

$105.03

 
Intrinsic value

$41.81

 
Up/down potential

-60%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as CMD.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CMD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  15.79
  15.10
  14.09
  13.18
  12.36
  11.63
  10.96
  10.37
  9.83
  9.35
  8.91
  8.52
  8.17
  7.85
  7.57
  7.31
  7.08
  6.87
  6.68
  6.52
  6.36
  6.23
  6.11
  5.99
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.65
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
Revenue, $m
  770
  886
  1,011
  1,144
  1,286
  1,435
  1,593
  1,758
  1,931
  2,111
  2,299
  2,495
  2,699
  2,911
  3,131
  3,360
  3,598
  3,846
  4,103
  4,370
  4,648
  4,938
  5,239
  5,553
  5,880
  6,222
  6,578
  6,950
  7,338
  7,744
  8,168
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  753
  855
  963
  1,079
  1,200
  1,329
  1,463
  1,604
  1,751
  1,904
  2,033
  2,199
  2,371
  2,551
  2,737
  2,931
  3,133
  3,342
  3,560
  3,786
  4,022
  4,268
  4,524
  4,790
  5,068
  5,358
  5,661
  5,978
  6,308
  6,654
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  660
  753
  855
  963
  1,079
  1,200
  1,329
  1,463
  1,604
  1,751
  1,904
  2,033
  2,199
  2,371
  2,551
  2,737
  2,931
  3,133
  3,342
  3,560
  3,786
  4,022
  4,268
  4,524
  4,790
  5,068
  5,358
  5,661
  5,978
  6,308
  6,654
Operating income, $m
  110
  133
  156
  181
  207
  235
  264
  295
  327
  360
  395
  463
  500
  540
  581
  623
  667
  713
  761
  810
  862
  915
  971
  1,029
  1,090
  1,153
  1,219
  1,288
  1,360
  1,436
  1,514
EBITDA, $m
  143
  180
  205
  232
  261
  291
  323
  356
  391
  428
  466
  506
  547
  590
  635
  681
  729
  779
  831
  886
  942
  1,001
  1,062
  1,125
  1,192
  1,261
  1,333
  1,408
  1,487
  1,569
  1,655
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  23
  25
  27
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  69
  74
  78
  83
  88
Earnings before tax, $m
  106
  129
  151
  174
  198
  224
  252
  281
  311
  342
  375
  440
  475
  512
  551
  590
  632
  675
  720
  766
  814
  865
  917
  972
  1,029
  1,088
  1,150
  1,215
  1,282
  1,353
  1,427
Tax expense, $m
  35
  35
  41
  47
  54
  61
  68
  76
  84
  92
  101
  119
  128
  138
  149
  159
  171
  182
  194
  207
  220
  233
  248
  262
  278
  294
  311
  328
  346
  365
  385
Net income, $m
  71
  94
  110
  127
  145
  164
  184
  205
  227
  250
  274
  321
  347
  374
  402
  431
  461
  493
  525
  559
  594
  631
  670
  709
  751
  794
  840
  887
  936
  988
  1,041

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  37
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  786
  862
  984
  1,113
  1,251
  1,396
  1,549
  1,710
  1,878
  2,054
  2,237
  2,427
  2,626
  2,832
  3,046
  3,269
  3,500
  3,741
  3,991
  4,251
  4,521
  4,803
  5,096
  5,402
  5,720
  6,052
  6,399
  6,760
  7,138
  7,533
  7,945
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  749
  862
  984
  1,113
  1,251
  1,396
  1,549
  1,710
  1,878
  2,054
  2,237
  2,427
  2,626
  2,832
  3,046
  3,269
  3,500
  3,741
  3,991
  4,251
  4,521
  4,803
  5,096
  5,402
  5,720
  6,052
  6,399
  6,760
  7,138
  7,533
  7,945
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.028
  1.028
  1.027
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
Average production assets, $m
  200
  230
  262
  296
  333
  372
  413
  455
  500
  547
  596
  646
  699
  754
  811
  870
  932
  996
  1,063
  1,132
  1,204
  1,279
  1,357
  1,438
  1,523
  1,611
  1,704
  1,800
  1,901
  2,006
  2,115
Working capital, $m
  150
  130
  149
  168
  189
  211
  234
  258
  284
  310
  338
  367
  397
  428
  460
  494
  529
  565
  603
  642
  683
  726
  770
  816
  864
  915
  967
  1,022
  1,079
  1,138
  1,201
Total debt, $m
  126
  166
  208
  254
  302
  353
  406
  463
  521
  583
  647
  714
  783
  855
  930
  1,008
  1,089
  1,173
  1,261
  1,352
  1,447
  1,545
  1,648
  1,755
  1,866
  1,982
  2,104
  2,230
  2,362
  2,500
  2,645
Total liabilities, $m
  262
  302
  344
  390
  438
  489
  542
  599
  657
  719
  783
  850
  919
  991
  1,066
  1,144
  1,225
  1,309
  1,397
  1,488
  1,583
  1,681
  1,784
  1,891
  2,002
  2,118
  2,240
  2,366
  2,498
  2,636
  2,781
Total equity, $m
  524
  560
  639
  724
  813
  908
  1,007
  1,112
  1,221
  1,335
  1,454
  1,578
  1,707
  1,841
  1,980
  2,125
  2,275
  2,432
  2,594
  2,763
  2,939
  3,122
  3,313
  3,511
  3,718
  3,934
  4,159
  4,394
  4,640
  4,896
  5,164
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  786
  862
  983
  1,114
  1,251
  1,397
  1,549
  1,711
  1,878
  2,054
  2,237
  2,428
  2,626
  2,832
  3,046
  3,269
  3,500
  3,741
  3,991
  4,251
  4,522
  4,803
  5,097
  5,402
  5,720
  6,052
  6,399
  6,760
  7,138
  7,532
  7,945
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.240
  0.300
  0.330
  0.350
  0.370
  0.390
  0.400
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  71
  94
  110
  127
  145
  164
  184
  205
  227
  250
  274
  321
  347
  374
  402
  431
  461
  493
  525
  559
  594
  631
  670
  709
  751
  794
  840
  887
  936
  988
  1,041
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  33
  46
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
  61
  64
  68
  71
  43
  47
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  71
  75
  80
  85
  90
  96
  102
  107
  114
  120
  127
  134
  141
Funds from operations, $m
  101
  140
  158
  178
  198
  220
  242
  266
  291
  317
  344
  364
  394
  424
  456
  489
  523
  559
  596
  635
  675
  717
  760
  805
  853
  902
  953
  1,007
  1,063
  1,121
  1,183
Change in working capital, $m
  -7
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  62
Cash from operations, $m
  108
  123
  140
  158
  177
  198
  219
  242
  266
  291
  317
  335
  364
  393
  424
  455
  488
  523
  558
  595
  634
  674
  716
  759
  804
  852
  901
  952
  1,006
  1,062
  1,120
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -71
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -96
  -102
  -107
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -134
New CAPEX, $m
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -97
  -43
  -47
  -52
  -57
  -61
  -66
  -71
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -210
  -221
  -232
  -244
Free cash flow, $m
  11
  80
  92
  106
  121
  137
  154
  172
  191
  211
  232
  245
  268
  292
  316
  342
  369
  396
  425
  455
  486
  519
  552
  587
  624
  662
  701
  742
  785
  830
  877
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  10
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  127
  132
  138
  144
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  3
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  127
  132
  138
  144
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  14
  120
  135
  152
  169
  188
  207
  228
  250
  272
  296
  312
  337
  364
  391
  420
  450
  481
  513
  546
  581
  617
  655
  694
  735
  778
  822
  869
  917
  968
  1,021
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -70
  -73
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -139
  -145
  -150
  -156
  -163
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -191
  -199
  -207
  -216
  -225
  -235
  -246
  -257
  -268
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  37
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  83
  56
  67
  80
  93
  108
  124
  140
  158
  177
  188
  208
  230
  252
  275
  299
  324
  350
  377
  405
  434
  464
  496
  528
  562
  597
  634
  672
  712
  753
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  80
  51
  59
  66
  72
  78
  83
  88
  91
  93
  89
  89
  87
  85
  81
  76
  71
  65
  58
  51
  45
  39
  32
  27
  22
  17
  14
  10
  8
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Cantel Medical Corp. is a provider of infection prevention products and services in the healthcare market. The Company's operating segments include Endoscopy; Water Purification and Filtration; Healthcare Disposables, and Dialysis. Its Endoscopy segment includes medical device reprocessing systems, disinfectants, detergents and other supplies. The Company's Water Purification and Filtration segment includes water purification equipment and services, filtration and separation products, and disinfectant, sterilization and decontamination products and services. Its Healthcare Disposables segment includes single-use, infection prevention and control healthcare products. The Company's Dialysis segment includes medical device reprocessing systems, sterilants/disinfectants, dialysate concentrates and other supplies for renal dialysis. The Company offers a range of filters utilizing hollow fiber membrane technology.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cantel Medical (CMD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 61.7
Price to Sales 5.7
Price to Book 8.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 40.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 54.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 15.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 42.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 24%
Total Debt to Equity 24%
Interest Coverage 36
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Return On Total Capital 11.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Return On Equity 14.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 47.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.5%
EBITDA Margin 18.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.3%
Operating Margin 14.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.8%
Net Profit Margin 9.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Effective Tax Rate 33%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.3%
Payout Ratio 8.5%

CMD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CMD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $770 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cantel Medical. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Cantel Medical. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CMD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 15.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CMD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cantel Medical, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cantel Medical.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CMD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 85.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CMD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Cantel Medical.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cantel Medical. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CMD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CMD are equal to 25.9%.

Life of production assets of 15 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cantel Medical operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CMD is equal to 14.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $524 million for Cantel Medical - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 41.701 million for Cantel Medical is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cantel Medical at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.4 billion.

COMPANY NEWS

▶ No. 1-Ranked Medical Stock In Buy Zone With Earnings Due   [Nov-20-17 04:08PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ These 4 Stocks Hit Buy Points; This New IPO Soars Late: S&P 500 Futures   [Nov-15-17 12:25AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Cantel posts 4Q profit   [Sep-28-17 09:41PM  Associated Press]
▶ Stocks Showing Improved Relative Strength: Cantel Medical   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Stocks With Rising Relative Strength: Cantel Medical   [Sep-20-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ This Medical Device Maker Is Now Outperforming 96% Of All Stocks   [Sep-18-17 10:49AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Cantel Medical to Acquire BHT Group in Germany   [Jul-31-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cantel Medical Corp. : June 9, 2017   [Jun-09-17 01:22PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Cantel Medical Corp. Gives the Bottom Line a Boost   [Jun-08-17 04:21PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Cantel posts 3Q profit   [08:28AM  Associated Press]
▶ Cantel posts 2Q profit   [08:16AM  Associated Press]
▶ Cantel Medical Corp. Takes Its First Step Towards Doubling   [Dec-13-16 04:18PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Cantel Medical Changes Ticker Symbol (CMD)   [Dec-05-16 10:56AM  at Investopedia]
Financial statements of CMD
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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