Intrinsic value of Chipotle Mexican Grill Cl - CMG

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$479.09

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$479.09

 
Intrinsic value

$248.04

 
Up/down potential

-48%

 
Rating

sell

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CMG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 13.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -13.26
  3.70
  3.83
  3.95
  4.05
  4.15
  4.23
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.88
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
Revenue, $m
  3,904
  4,048
  4,204
  4,369
  4,546
  4,735
  4,935
  5,148
  5,373
  5,612
  5,864
  6,131
  6,413
  6,710
  7,023
  7,353
  7,701
  8,068
  8,454
  8,860
  9,287
  9,737
  10,210
  10,707
  11,230
  11,780
  12,358
  12,966
  13,604
  14,275
  14,980
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,360
  3,489
  3,626
  3,773
  3,930
  4,096
  4,272
  4,459
  4,657
  4,866
  5,085
  5,319
  5,565
  5,825
  6,099
  6,388
  6,692
  7,012
  7,349
  7,703
  8,076
  8,469
  8,881
  9,315
  9,771
  10,250
  10,754
  11,284
  11,840
  12,425
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,870
  3,360
  3,489
  3,626
  3,773
  3,930
  4,096
  4,272
  4,459
  4,657
  4,866
  5,085
  5,319
  5,565
  5,825
  6,099
  6,388
  6,692
  7,012
  7,349
  7,703
  8,076
  8,469
  8,881
  9,315
  9,771
  10,250
  10,754
  11,284
  11,840
  12,425
Operating income, $m
  35
  688
  715
  743
  773
  805
  840
  876
  914
  955
  998
  1,046
  1,094
  1,144
  1,198
  1,254
  1,314
  1,376
  1,442
  1,511
  1,584
  1,661
  1,741
  1,826
  1,916
  2,009
  2,108
  2,212
  2,320
  2,435
  2,555
EBITDA, $m
  181
  839
  871
  906
  942
  981
  1,023
  1,067
  1,114
  1,163
  1,216
  1,271
  1,329
  1,391
  1,456
  1,524
  1,596
  1,672
  1,752
  1,836
  1,925
  2,018
  2,116
  2,219
  2,328
  2,442
  2,561
  2,687
  2,820
  2,959
  3,105
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
Earnings before tax, $m
  39
  688
  714
  741
  771
  802
  835
  870
  907
  947
  989
  1,035
  1,081
  1,130
  1,182
  1,237
  1,294
  1,355
  1,419
  1,486
  1,556
  1,631
  1,709
  1,791
  1,877
  1,968
  2,064
  2,164
  2,270
  2,381
  2,497
Tax expense, $m
  16
  186
  193
  200
  208
  216
  225
  235
  245
  256
  267
  279
  292
  305
  319
  334
  349
  366
  383
  401
  420
  440
  461
  484
  507
  531
  557
  584
  613
  643
  674
Net income, $m
  23
  502
  521
  541
  563
  585
  610
  635
  662
  691
  722
  755
  789
  825
  863
  903
  945
  989
  1,036
  1,085
  1,136
  1,190
  1,247
  1,307
  1,371
  1,437
  1,507
  1,580
  1,657
  1,738
  1,823

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  418
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,026
  1,667
  1,731
  1,800
  1,873
  1,950
  2,033
  2,120
  2,213
  2,311
  2,415
  2,525
  2,641
  2,763
  2,893
  3,029
  3,172
  3,323
  3,482
  3,649
  3,825
  4,010
  4,205
  4,410
  4,625
  4,852
  5,090
  5,340
  5,603
  5,879
  6,170
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,608
  1,667
  1,731
  1,800
  1,873
  1,950
  2,033
  2,120
  2,213
  2,311
  2,415
  2,525
  2,641
  2,763
  2,893
  3,029
  3,172
  3,323
  3,482
  3,649
  3,825
  4,010
  4,205
  4,410
  4,625
  4,852
  5,090
  5,340
  5,603
  5,879
  6,170
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.428
  2.428
  2.429
  2.427
  2.427
  2.428
  2.427
  2.428
  2.428
  2.428
  2.428
  2.428
  2.428
  2.429
  2.428
  2.428
  2.428
  2.428
  2.428
  2.428
  2.428
  2.428
  2.428
  2.428
  2.428
  2.428
  2.428
  2.428
  2.428
  2.428
  2.428
Average production assets, $m
  1,261
  1,308
  1,358
  1,411
  1,469
  1,529
  1,594
  1,663
  1,736
  1,813
  1,894
  1,980
  2,071
  2,167
  2,268
  2,375
  2,488
  2,606
  2,731
  2,862
  3,000
  3,145
  3,298
  3,458
  3,627
  3,805
  3,992
  4,188
  4,394
  4,611
  4,839
Working capital, $m
  240
  -186
  -193
  -201
  -209
  -218
  -227
  -237
  -247
  -258
  -270
  -282
  -295
  -309
  -323
  -338
  -354
  -371
  -389
  -408
  -427
  -448
  -470
  -493
  -517
  -542
  -568
  -596
  -626
  -657
  -689
Total debt, $m
  0
  23
  48
  74
  103
  133
  165
  199
  235
  273
  313
  356
  401
  448
  498
  551
  607
  665
  727
  792
  860
  932
  1,008
  1,087
  1,171
  1,259
  1,351
  1,448
  1,550
  1,657
  1,770
Total liabilities, $m
  624
  647
  672
  698
  727
  757
  789
  823
  859
  897
  937
  980
  1,025
  1,072
  1,122
  1,175
  1,231
  1,289
  1,351
  1,416
  1,484
  1,556
  1,632
  1,711
  1,795
  1,883
  1,975
  2,072
  2,174
  2,281
  2,394
Total equity, $m
  1,402
  1,020
  1,060
  1,101
  1,146
  1,194
  1,244
  1,298
  1,354
  1,415
  1,478
  1,545
  1,616
  1,691
  1,770
  1,853
  1,941
  2,034
  2,131
  2,233
  2,341
  2,454
  2,574
  2,699
  2,831
  2,969
  3,115
  3,268
  3,429
  3,598
  3,776
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,026
  1,667
  1,732
  1,799
  1,873
  1,951
  2,033
  2,121
  2,213
  2,312
  2,415
  2,525
  2,641
  2,763
  2,892
  3,028
  3,172
  3,323
  3,482
  3,649
  3,825
  4,010
  4,206
  4,410
  4,626
  4,852
  5,090
  5,340
  5,603
  5,879
  6,170
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.020
  0.050
  0.070
  0.090
  0.110
  0.130
  0.150
  0.170
  0.190
  0.210
  0.230
  0.250
  0.270
  0.280
  0.300
  0.310
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  23
  502
  521
  541
  563
  585
  610
  635
  662
  691
  722
  755
  789
  825
  863
  903
  945
  989
  1,036
  1,085
  1,136
  1,190
  1,247
  1,307
  1,371
  1,437
  1,507
  1,580
  1,657
  1,738
  1,823
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  146
  151
  156
  163
  169
  176
  183
  191
  199
  208
  217
  225
  235
  246
  258
  270
  283
  296
  310
  325
  341
  357
  375
  393
  412
  432
  454
  476
  499
  524
  550
Funds from operations, $m
  457
  653
  678
  704
  732
  761
  793
  826
  862
  899
  939
  980
  1,025
  1,071
  1,121
  1,173
  1,227
  1,285
  1,346
  1,410
  1,477
  1,548
  1,622
  1,700
  1,783
  1,869
  1,960
  2,056
  2,156
  2,262
  2,373
Change in working capital, $m
  108
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
Cash from operations, $m
  349
  703
  685
  711
  740
  770
  802
  836
  872
  910
  951
  993
  1,038
  1,085
  1,135
  1,188
  1,243
  1,302
  1,364
  1,428
  1,497
  1,568
  1,644
  1,723
  1,807
  1,895
  1,987
  2,084
  2,186
  2,293
  2,405
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -143
  -149
  -154
  -160
  -167
  -174
  -181
  -189
  -197
  -206
  -215
  -225
  -235
  -246
  -258
  -270
  -283
  -296
  -310
  -325
  -341
  -357
  -375
  -393
  -412
  -432
  -454
  -476
  -499
  -524
New CAPEX, $m
  -259
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -187
  -196
  -206
  -217
  -228
Cash from investing activities, $m
  327
  -190
  -199
  -208
  -217
  -228
  -239
  -250
  -262
  -274
  -288
  -301
  -316
  -331
  -347
  -365
  -382
  -401
  -421
  -441
  -463
  -486
  -510
  -536
  -562
  -590
  -619
  -650
  -682
  -716
  -752
Free cash flow, $m
  676
  513
  486
  504
  522
  542
  564
  586
  610
  636
  663
  691
  722
  754
  788
  823
  861
  901
  943
  987
  1,033
  1,082
  1,134
  1,188
  1,245
  1,305
  1,368
  1,434
  1,503
  1,577
  1,653
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  76
  79
  84
  88
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -838
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -836
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  76
  79
  84
  88
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -160
  536
  511
  530
  551
  572
  596
  620
  646
  674
  704
  734
  767
  801
  838
  876
  917
  960
  1,005
  1,052
  1,102
  1,154
  1,209
  1,267
  1,328
  1,393
  1,460
  1,531
  1,606
  1,684
  1,766
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  726
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -178
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  418
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  918
  472
  488
  506
  525
  545
  567
  590
  614
  640
  667
  696
  726
  759
  793
  829
  867
  907
  950
  994
  1,041
  1,090
  1,142
  1,197
  1,254
  1,314
  1,378
  1,445
  1,515
  1,588
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  880
  432
  425
  417
  407
  396
  383
  369
  353
  335
  317
  297
  276
  255
  233
  211
  189
  167
  146
  126
  108
  90
  75
  61
  49
  38
  30
  22
  17
  12
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. As of December 31, 2016, the company operated 2,198 Chipotle restaurants throughout the United States, as well as 29 international Chipotle restaurants; and 23 restaurants with non-Chipotle concepts. The company was founded in 1993 and is based in Denver, Colorado.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Chipotle Mexican Grill Cl (CMG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 600.1
Price to Sales 3.5
Price to Book 9.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 39.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 153.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -13.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Return On Total Capital 1.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
Return On Equity 1.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
Asset Turnover 1.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 20.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.4%
EBITDA Margin 4.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.9%
Operating Margin 0.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Net Profit Margin 0.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Effective Tax Rate 41%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39%
Payout Ratio 0%

CMG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CMG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3904 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Chipotle Mexican Grill Cl. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Chipotle Mexican Grill Cl. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CMG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CMG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Chipotle Mexican Grill Cl, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Chipotle Mexican Grill Cl.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CMG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CMG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Chipotle Mexican Grill Cl.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Chipotle Mexican Grill Cl. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CMG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CMG are equal to 32.3%.

Life of production assets of 8.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Chipotle Mexican Grill Cl operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CMG is equal to -4.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1402 million for Chipotle Mexican Grill Cl - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 28.775 million for Chipotle Mexican Grill Cl is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Chipotle Mexican Grill Cl at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $13.8 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

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Stock chart of CMG Financial statements of CMG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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