Intrinsic value of Capstead Mortgage - CMO

Previous Close

$9.71

  Intrinsic Value

$4.28

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-56%

  Value-price divergence*

-24%

Previous close

$9.71

 
Intrinsic value

$4.28

 
Up/down potential

-56%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-24%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as CMO.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CMO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -1.39
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.09
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
Revenue, $m
  213
  225
  238
  251
  265
  279
  294
  310
  327
  344
  362
  381
  401
  422
  444
  467
  491
  516
  542
  570
  599
  630
  662
  695
  730
  767
  806
  847
  889
  934
  981
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  113
  119
  126
  133
  140
  148
  156
  164
  173
  182
  191
  201
  212
  223
  234
  246
  259
  272
  286
  301
  316
  332
  349
  367
  385
  405
  425
  446
  469
  493
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  130
  113
  119
  126
  133
  140
  148
  156
  164
  173
  182
  191
  201
  212
  223
  234
  246
  259
  272
  286
  301
  316
  332
  349
  367
  385
  405
  425
  446
  469
  493
Operating income, $m
  83
  112
  118
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
  163
  171
  180
  190
  200
  210
  221
  232
  244
  257
  270
  284
  298
  314
  329
  346
  364
  382
  401
  422
  443
  465
  489
EBITDA, $m
  83
  112
  118
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
  163
  171
  180
  190
  200
  210
  221
  232
  244
  257
  270
  284
  298
  314
  329
  346
  364
  382
  401
  422
  443
  465
  489
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  427
  440
  465
  491
  518
  547
  577
  608
  640
  675
  710
  748
  787
  828
  871
  916
  963
  1,013
  1,065
  1,119
  1,177
  1,237
  1,300
  1,366
  1,435
  1,508
  1,584
  1,664
  1,748
  1,836
Earnings before tax, $m
  83
  -314
  -322
  -340
  -359
  -379
  -400
  -422
  -445
  -469
  -494
  -520
  -548
  -577
  -607
  -638
  -672
  -706
  -743
  -781
  -821
  -863
  -907
  -953
  -1,002
  -1,053
  -1,106
  -1,162
  -1,221
  -1,283
  -1,347
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  83
  -314
  -322
  -340
  -359
  -379
  -400
  -422
  -445
  -469
  -494
  -520
  -548
  -577
  -607
  -638
  -672
  -706
  -743
  -781
  -821
  -863
  -907
  -953
  -1,002
  -1,053
  -1,106
  -1,162
  -1,221
  -1,283
  -1,347

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  57
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  13,577
  14,071
  14,864
  15,691
  16,556
  17,459
  18,405
  19,393
  20,428
  21,511
  22,645
  23,832
  25,076
  26,380
  27,745
  29,177
  30,678
  32,252
  33,902
  35,633
  37,448
  39,352
  41,350
  43,446
  45,645
  47,953
  50,375
  52,916
  55,584
  58,383
  61,322
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  13,520
  14,071
  14,864
  15,691
  16,556
  17,459
  18,405
  19,393
  20,428
  21,511
  22,645
  23,832
  25,076
  26,380
  27,745
  29,177
  30,678
  32,252
  33,902
  35,633
  37,448
  39,352
  41,350
  43,446
  45,645
  47,953
  50,375
  52,916
  55,584
  58,383
  61,322
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.016
  0.016
  0.016
  0.016
  0.016
  0.016
  0.016
  0.016
  0.016
  0.016
  0.016
  0.016
  0.016
  0.016
  0.016
  0.016
  0.016
  0.016
  0.016
  0.016
  0.016
  0.016
  0.016
  0.016
  0.016
  0.016
  0.016
  0.016
  0.016
  0.016
  0.016
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  113
  119
  126
  132
  140
  147
  155
  163
  172
  181
  191
  201
  211
  222
  233
  245
  258
  271
  285
  300
  315
  331
  348
  365
  384
  403
  423
  445
  467
  491
Total debt, $m
  12,243
  12,578
  13,291
  14,036
  14,814
  15,627
  16,478
  17,368
  18,299
  19,274
  20,294
  21,363
  22,483
  23,656
  24,885
  26,173
  27,524
  28,941
  30,426
  31,983
  33,617
  35,331
  37,129
  39,015
  40,995
  43,072
  45,251
  47,539
  49,939
  52,459
  55,103
Total liabilities, $m
  12,329
  12,664
  13,377
  14,122
  14,900
  15,713
  16,564
  17,454
  18,385
  19,360
  20,380
  21,449
  22,569
  23,742
  24,971
  26,259
  27,610
  29,027
  30,512
  32,069
  33,703
  35,417
  37,215
  39,101
  41,081
  43,158
  45,337
  47,625
  50,025
  52,545
  55,189
Total equity, $m
  1,248
  1,407
  1,486
  1,569
  1,656
  1,746
  1,840
  1,939
  2,043
  2,151
  2,264
  2,383
  2,508
  2,638
  2,775
  2,918
  3,068
  3,225
  3,390
  3,563
  3,745
  3,935
  4,135
  4,345
  4,565
  4,795
  5,037
  5,292
  5,558
  5,838
  6,132
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  13,577
  14,071
  14,863
  15,691
  16,556
  17,459
  18,404
  19,393
  20,428
  21,511
  22,644
  23,832
  25,077
  26,380
  27,746
  29,177
  30,678
  32,252
  33,902
  35,632
  37,448
  39,352
  41,350
  43,446
  45,646
  47,953
  50,374
  52,917
  55,583
  58,383
  61,321
Debt-to-equity ratio
  9.810
  8.940
  8.940
  8.950
  8.950
  8.950
  8.950
  8.960
  8.960
  8.960
  8.960
  8.960
  8.970
  8.970
  8.970
  8.970
  8.970
  8.970
  8.970
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.990
  8.990
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.092
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  83
  -314
  -322
  -340
  -359
  -379
  -400
  -422
  -445
  -469
  -494
  -520
  -548
  -577
  -607
  -638
  -672
  -706
  -743
  -781
  -821
  -863
  -907
  -953
  -1,002
  -1,053
  -1,106
  -1,162
  -1,221
  -1,283
  -1,347
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  216
  -314
  -322
  -340
  -359
  -379
  -400
  -422
  -445
  -469
  -494
  -520
  -548
  -577
  -607
  -638
  -672
  -706
  -743
  -781
  -821
  -863
  -907
  -953
  -1,002
  -1,053
  -1,106
  -1,162
  -1,221
  -1,283
  -1,347
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
Cash from operations, $m
  215
  -320
  -328
  -347
  -366
  -387
  -408
  -430
  -453
  -478
  -503
  -530
  -558
  -587
  -618
  -650
  -684
  -719
  -756
  -795
  -836
  -878
  -923
  -970
  -1,019
  -1,071
  -1,125
  -1,182
  -1,242
  -1,305
  -1,371
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  688
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  903
  -320
  -328
  -347
  -366
  -387
  -408
  -430
  -453
  -478
  -503
  -530
  -558
  -587
  -618
  -650
  -684
  -719
  -756
  -795
  -836
  -878
  -923
  -970
  -1,019
  -1,071
  -1,125
  -1,182
  -1,242
  -1,305
  -1,371
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -813
  392
  713
  745
  778
  813
  851
  890
  931
  975
  1,020
  1,069
  1,120
  1,173
  1,229
  1,289
  1,351
  1,416
  1,485
  1,558
  1,634
  1,714
  1,798
  1,886
  1,979
  2,077
  2,180
  2,287
  2,401
  2,520
  2,645
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  474
  401
  423
  446
  470
  495
  521
  549
  577
  608
  639
  672
  707
  743
  782
  822
  864
  908
  954
  1,003
  1,053
  1,107
  1,163
  1,222
  1,284
  1,348
  1,416
  1,488
  1,563
  1,641
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -790
  866
  1,114
  1,168
  1,224
  1,283
  1,346
  1,411
  1,480
  1,552
  1,628
  1,708
  1,792
  1,880
  1,972
  2,071
  2,173
  2,280
  2,393
  2,512
  2,637
  2,767
  2,905
  3,049
  3,201
  3,361
  3,528
  3,703
  3,889
  4,083
  4,286
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  113
  545
  786
  821
  858
  897
  938
  981
  1,026
  1,074
  1,125
  1,178
  1,234
  1,293
  1,355
  1,420
  1,489
  1,561
  1,637
  1,717
  1,801
  1,889
  1,982
  2,079
  2,182
  2,289
  2,402
  2,521
  2,646
  2,777
  2,915
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  50
  -474
  -401
  -423
  -446
  -470
  -495
  -521
  -549
  -577
  -608
  -639
  -672
  -707
  -743
  -782
  -822
  -864
  -908
  -954
  -1,003
  -1,053
  -1,107
  -1,163
  -1,222
  -1,284
  -1,348
  -1,416
  -1,488
  -1,563
  -1,641
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  72
  385
  398
  412
  427
  443
  460
  478
  497
  517
  539
  562
  586
  612
  639
  667
  697
  729
  763
  798
  836
  875
  916
  960
  1,006
  1,054
  1,105
  1,158
  1,215
  1,274
Discount rate, %
 
  14.50
  15.23
  15.99
  16.79
  17.62
  18.51
  19.43
  20.40
  21.42
  22.49
  23.62
  24.80
  26.04
  27.34
  28.71
  30.14
  31.65
  33.23
  34.90
  36.64
  38.47
  40.40
  42.42
  44.54
  46.76
  49.10
  51.56
  54.14
  56.84
  59.68
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  63
  290
  255
  221
  190
  160
  133
  108
  87
  68
  52
  39
  29
  21
  14
  10
  7
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  66.3
  47.9
  34.7
  25.1
  18.2
  13.2
  9.6
  6.9
  5.0
  3.6
  2.6
  1.9
  1.4
  1.0
  0.7
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Capstead Mortgage Corporation operates as a self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company manages a leveraged portfolio of residential mortgage pass-through securities consisting of relatively short-duration adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) securities issued and guaranteed by government-sponsored enterprises, either Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) or the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac), or by an agency of the federal government, the Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Mae). The Company finances its residential mortgage investments by leveraging its long-term investment capital with secured borrowings consisting primarily of borrowings under repurchase arrangements with commercial banks and other financial institutions. The Company's portfolio of residential mortgage investments includes residential mortgage investments.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Capstead Mortgage (CMO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 11.2
Price to Sales 4.4
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 4.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 7.9%
Total Debt to Equity 981%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Return On Total Capital 0.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Return On Equity 6.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 46%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.6%
EBITDA Margin 39%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 50.4%
Operating Margin 39%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 50.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 39%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 50.4%
Net Profit Margin 39%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 50.4%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 132.5%

CMO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CMO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $213 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Capstead Mortgage. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Capstead Mortgage. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CMO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.5%, whose default value for CMO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Capstead Mortgage, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Capstead Mortgage.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CMO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 50.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CMO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Capstead Mortgage.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Capstead Mortgage. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CMO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CMO are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Capstead Mortgage operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CMO is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1248 million for Capstead Mortgage - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 95.81 million for Capstead Mortgage is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Capstead Mortgage at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Capstead posts 2Q profit   [Jul-27-17 12:30AM  Associated Press]
▶ Capstead posts 2Q profit   [Jul-26-17 07:30PM  Associated Press]
▶ Capstead posts 1Q profit   [Apr-26-17 06:44PM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for February 8th   [Feb-08-17 10:09AM  Zacks]
▶ Capstead posts 4Q profit   [Jan-25-17 06:44PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Capstead Mortgage Corporation (CMO) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-11-16 05:31AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ 5 Mortgage REITs that Could Benefit from Higher Libor Rates   [Aug-19-16 05:10PM  at Barrons.com]
Financial statements of CMO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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