Intrinsic value of Costamare - CMRE

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$6.57

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CMRE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -4.49
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  468
  500
  511
  524
  539
  556
  573
  593
  614
  637
  661
  688
  715
  745
  777
  810
  846
  883
  923
  965
  1,009
  1,056
  1,106
  1,158
  1,212
  1,270
  1,331
  1,395
  1,462
  1,533
  1,607
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  250
  256
  262
  270
  278
  287
  297
  307
  318
  331
  344
  358
  373
  388
  405
  423
  442
  462
  483
  505
  528
  553
  579
  606
  635
  665
  697
  731
  766
  804
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  57
  59
Total operating expenses, $m
  302
  279
  285
  292
  301
  310
  319
  330
  341
  353
  367
  381
  396
  412
  428
  446
  465
  485
  506
  528
  551
  575
  601
  628
  657
  687
  718
  752
  787
  823
  863
Operating income, $m
  166
  221
  226
  232
  239
  246
  254
  263
  273
  283
  295
  307
  320
  334
  349
  365
  381
  399
  418
  438
  459
  481
  505
  529
  556
  583
  612
  643
  675
  709
  745
EBITDA, $m
  267
  325
  333
  341
  351
  362
  373
  386
  401
  416
  432
  450
  469
  489
  510
  533
  557
  583
  610
  638
  669
  701
  734
  770
  808
  847
  889
  933
  979
  1,028
  1,079
Interest expense (income), $m
  51
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  160
  168
Earnings before tax, $m
  82
  170
  174
  179
  184
  190
  196
  203
  211
  219
  227
  237
  247
  258
  269
  281
  294
  308
  323
  338
  355
  372
  390
  409
  430
  451
  474
  498
  523
  549
  577
Tax expense, $m
  0
  46
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  141
  148
  156
Net income, $m
  82
  124
  127
  131
  134
  138
  143
  148
  154
  160
  166
  173
  180
  188
  197
  205
  215
  225
  236
  247
  259
  271
  285
  299
  314
  329
  346
  363
  382
  401
  421

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  165
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,558
  2,590
  2,649
  2,717
  2,794
  2,878
  2,971
  3,073
  3,182
  3,300
  3,427
  3,562
  3,707
  3,861
  4,024
  4,198
  4,382
  4,577
  4,783
  5,000
  5,230
  5,472
  5,728
  5,997
  6,281
  6,580
  6,895
  7,227
  7,575
  7,942
  8,328
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,393
  2,590
  2,649
  2,717
  2,794
  2,878
  2,971
  3,073
  3,182
  3,300
  3,427
  3,562
  3,707
  3,861
  4,024
  4,198
  4,382
  4,577
  4,783
  5,000
  5,230
  5,472
  5,728
  5,997
  6,281
  6,580
  6,895
  7,227
  7,575
  7,942
  8,328
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.196
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
Average production assets, $m
  1,847
  1,070
  1,095
  1,123
  1,154
  1,189
  1,228
  1,270
  1,315
  1,364
  1,416
  1,472
  1,532
  1,595
  1,663
  1,735
  1,811
  1,891
  1,976
  2,066
  2,161
  2,261
  2,367
  2,478
  2,596
  2,719
  2,849
  2,986
  3,130
  3,282
  3,441
Working capital, $m
  -70
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
Total debt, $m
  1,415
  1,485
  1,522
  1,564
  1,611
  1,664
  1,721
  1,784
  1,852
  1,925
  2,003
  2,087
  2,177
  2,272
  2,373
  2,481
  2,594
  2,715
  2,842
  2,977
  3,119
  3,269
  3,428
  3,594
  3,770
  3,955
  4,150
  4,355
  4,571
  4,798
  5,037
Total liabilities, $m
  1,484
  1,603
  1,640
  1,682
  1,729
  1,782
  1,839
  1,902
  1,970
  2,043
  2,121
  2,205
  2,295
  2,390
  2,491
  2,599
  2,712
  2,833
  2,960
  3,095
  3,237
  3,387
  3,546
  3,712
  3,888
  4,073
  4,268
  4,473
  4,689
  4,916
  5,155
Total equity, $m
  1,074
  987
  1,009
  1,035
  1,064
  1,097
  1,132
  1,171
  1,212
  1,257
  1,306
  1,357
  1,412
  1,471
  1,533
  1,599
  1,670
  1,744
  1,822
  1,905
  1,993
  2,085
  2,182
  2,285
  2,393
  2,507
  2,627
  2,753
  2,886
  3,026
  3,173
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,558
  2,590
  2,649
  2,717
  2,793
  2,879
  2,971
  3,073
  3,182
  3,300
  3,427
  3,562
  3,707
  3,861
  4,024
  4,198
  4,382
  4,577
  4,782
  5,000
  5,230
  5,472
  5,728
  5,997
  6,281
  6,580
  6,895
  7,226
  7,575
  7,942
  8,328
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.318
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.520
  1.520
  1.520
  1.530
  1.530
  1.530
  1.540
  1.540
  1.540
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.560
  1.560
  1.560
  1.570
  1.570
  1.570
  1.570
  1.580
  1.580
  1.580
  1.580
  1.580
  1.590
  1.590
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.380
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  82
  124
  127
  131
  134
  138
  143
  148
  154
  160
  166
  173
  180
  188
  197
  205
  215
  225
  236
  247
  259
  271
  285
  299
  314
  329
  346
  363
  382
  401
  421
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  101
  104
  106
  109
  112
  115
  119
  123
  128
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  161
  168
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  220
  230
  241
  252
  264
  277
  290
  304
  319
  334
Funds from operations, $m
  208
  228
  233
  240
  246
  254
  262
  271
  281
  292
  304
  316
  329
  343
  358
  374
  391
  409
  428
  448
  469
  491
  515
  539
  566
  593
  622
  653
  685
  719
  755
Change in working capital, $m
  -19
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
Cash from operations, $m
  227
  -820
  234
  240
  247
  255
  263
  273
  282
  293
  305
  317
  331
  345
  360
  376
  393
  411
  430
  450
  471
  494
  517
  542
  569
  597
  626
  657
  689
  723
  759
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -102
  -104
  -106
  -109
  -112
  -115
  -119
  -123
  -128
  -132
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -155
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -184
  -192
  -201
  -210
  -220
  -230
  -241
  -252
  -264
  -277
  -290
  -304
  -319
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -21
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -159
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -34
  -123
  -129
  -134
  -141
  -147
  -153
  -161
  -168
  -177
  -184
  -193
  -203
  -213
  -223
  -233
  -244
  -256
  -269
  -282
  -296
  -310
  -326
  -341
  -358
  -376
  -394
  -414
  -434
  -456
  -478
Free cash flow, $m
  193
  -943
  106
  106
  107
  108
  109
  111
  114
  117
  120
  124
  128
  132
  137
  143
  148
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  192
  201
  211
  221
  232
  243
  255
  268
  281
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -135
  34
  37
  42
  47
  52
  58
  63
  68
  73
  78
  84
  89
  95
  101
  107
  114
  121
  127
  135
  142
  150
  158
  167
  176
  185
  195
  205
  216
  227
  239
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  69
  932
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -52
  966
  37
  42
  47
  52
  58
  63
  68
  73
  78
  84
  89
  95
  101
  107
  114
  121
  127
  135
  142
  150
  158
  167
  176
  185
  195
  205
  216
  227
  239
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  140
  -909
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
  217
  228
  239
  250
  262
  275
  288
  303
  318
  334
  350
  368
  387
  406
  427
  448
  471
  495
  520
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -110
  -23
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  120
  122
  125
  128
  132
  136
  140
  145
  150
  156
  162
  169
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  220
  230
  241
  253
  265
  278
  292
  307
  322
  338
  355
  373
Discount rate, %
 
  8.90
  9.35
  9.81
  10.30
  10.82
  11.36
  11.93
  12.52
  13.15
  13.81
  14.50
  15.22
  15.98
  16.78
  17.62
  18.50
  19.43
  20.40
  21.42
  22.49
  23.61
  24.80
  26.03
  27.34
  28.70
  30.14
  31.65
  33.23
  34.89
  36.63
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  100
  92
  84
  77
  69
  62
  54
  48
  41
  35
  30
  25
  20
  16
  13
  10
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  42.0
  42.0
  42.0
  42.0
  42.0
  42.0
  42.0
  42.0
  42.0
  42.0
  42.0
  42.0
  42.0
  42.0
  42.0
  42.0
  42.0
  42.0
  42.0
  42.0
  42.0
  42.0
  42.0
  42.0
  42.0
  42.0
  42.0
  42.0
  42.0
  42.0

Costamare Inc. owns and charters containerships to liner companies worldwide. As of April 20, 2016, it had a fleet of 72 containerships with a total capacity of approximately 467,000 twenty foot equivalent units (TEU), including 60 vessels in the water with approximately 333,000 TEU; and 12 newbuild vessels with approximately 134,000 TEU. The company was founded in 1974 and is based in Monaco.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Costamare (CMRE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 7.2
Price to Sales 1.3
Price to Book 0.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 2.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -43.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 110.6%
Total Debt to Equity 131.8%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Return On Total Capital 3.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Return On Equity 8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 76.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 74.9%
EBITDA Margin 50%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.9%
Operating Margin 35.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 17.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.6%
Net Profit Margin 17.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.6%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 91.5%

CMRE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CMRE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $490 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Costamare. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Costamare. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CMRE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.9%, whose default value for CMRE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Costamare, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Costamare.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CMRE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 50%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $28 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CMRE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Costamare.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Costamare. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CMRE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CMRE are equal to 214.1%.

Life of production assets of 10.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Costamare operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CMRE is equal to -5.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $964 million for Costamare - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 87.972 million for Costamare is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Costamare at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Why Costamare Inc. Stock Just Sank 9%   [May-25-17 12:41PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Costamare Inc. Announces Public Offering of Common Stock   [May-24-17 04:16PM  Marketwired]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Costamare Inc. : May 22, 2017   [May-22-17 01:28PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Is Seaspan Corporation About to Turn the Corner?   [May-15-17 11:15AM  Motley Fool]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Costamare Inc. : May 9, 2017   [May-09-17 04:27PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Why Costamare Shares Just Jumped 14.5%   [11:45AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Costamare beats 1Q profit forecasts   [Apr-27-17 05:44PM  Associated Press]
▶ Seaspan Corporation: The Bear Case From a Bull   [Apr-11-17 10:00AM  Motley Fool]
▶ DryShips Inc.'s High Dividend Yield Is Shrinking Quickly   [Mar-20-17 10:00AM  Motley Fool]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for February 24th   [Feb-24-17 10:06AM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Costamare Inc. : February 14, 2017   [Feb-14-17 03:20PM  Capital Cube]
▶ What Makes Costamare (CMRE) a Strong Sell?   [Feb-09-17 08:37AM  Zacks]
▶ Is Costamare Inc (CMRE) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-19-16 10:59PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Why Costamare Inc. Stock Slumped 15% Today   [01:00PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Will Seaspan Corporation Raise Its Dividend in 2017?   [Aug-30-16 01:45PM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of CMRE Financial statements of CMRE Annual reports of CMRE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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