Intrinsic value of CNO Financial Group - CNO

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$19.66

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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$19.66

 
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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as CNO.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CNO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.28
  2.40
  2.66
  2.89
  3.10
  3.29
  3.46
  3.62
  3.76
  3.88
  3.99
  4.09
  4.18
  4.27
  4.34
  4.41
  4.46
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.72
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
Revenue, $m
  0
  4,113
  4,223
  4,345
  4,480
  4,628
  4,788
  4,961
  5,147
  5,347
  5,561
  5,788
  6,030
  6,288
  6,561
  6,850
  7,155
  7,479
  7,820
  8,181
  8,561
  8,962
  9,385
  9,830
  10,299
  10,792
  11,312
  11,858
  12,433
  13,038
  13,674
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,620
  3,716
  3,824
  3,942
  4,072
  4,213
  4,366
  4,530
  4,706
  4,893
  5,094
  5,307
  5,533
  5,773
  6,028
  6,297
  6,581
  6,882
  7,199
  7,534
  7,887
  8,258
  8,650
  9,063
  9,497
  9,954
  10,435
  10,941
  11,473
  12,033
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,548
  3,620
  3,716
  3,824
  3,942
  4,072
  4,213
  4,366
  4,530
  4,706
  4,893
  5,094
  5,307
  5,533
  5,773
  6,028
  6,297
  6,581
  6,882
  7,199
  7,534
  7,887
  8,258
  8,650
  9,063
  9,497
  9,954
  10,435
  10,941
  11,473
  12,033
Operating income, $m
  470
  494
  507
  521
  538
  555
  575
  595
  618
  642
  667
  695
  724
  755
  787
  822
  859
  897
  938
  982
  1,027
  1,075
  1,126
  1,180
  1,236
  1,295
  1,357
  1,423
  1,492
  1,565
  1,641
EBITDA, $m
  470
  494
  507
  521
  538
  555
  575
  595
  618
  642
  667
  695
  724
  755
  787
  822
  859
  897
  938
  982
  1,027
  1,075
  1,126
  1,180
  1,236
  1,295
  1,357
  1,423
  1,492
  1,565
  1,641
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  148
  168
  195
  224
  256
  291
  329
  371
  415
  463
  514
  568
  626
  688
  753
  822
  895
  972
  1,054
  1,140
  1,231
  1,327
  1,428
  1,534
  1,646
  1,764
  1,888
  2,019
  2,156
  2,300
Earnings before tax, $m
  353
  346
  338
  327
  314
  299
  283
  266
  247
  226
  204
  180
  155
  128
  99
  69
  37
  2
  -34
  -72
  -113
  -155
  -200
  -248
  -298
  -351
  -406
  -465
  -527
  -591
  -659
Tax expense, $m
  -5
  93
  91
  88
  85
  81
  77
  72
  67
  61
  55
  49
  42
  35
  27
  19
  10
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  358
  252
  247
  239
  229
  219
  207
  194
  180
  165
  149
  132
  113
  94
  73
  50
  27
  2
  -34
  -72
  -113
  -155
  -200
  -248
  -298
  -351
  -406
  -465
  -527
  -591
  -659

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  31,975
  32,646
  33,514
  34,484
  35,555
  36,726
  37,999
  39,374
  40,853
  42,438
  44,132
  45,939
  47,861
  49,903
  52,068
  54,362
  56,789
  59,355
  62,065
  64,926
  67,944
  71,127
  74,481
  78,014
  81,735
  85,652
  89,775
  94,113
  98,676
  103,476
  108,523
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  31,975
  32,646
  33,514
  34,484
  35,555
  36,726
  37,999
  39,374
  40,853
  42,438
  44,132
  45,939
  47,861
  49,903
  52,068
  54,362
  56,789
  59,355
  62,065
  64,926
  67,944
  71,127
  74,481
  78,014
  81,735
  85,652
  89,775
  94,113
  98,676
  103,476
  108,523
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  4,223
  4,811
  5,557
  6,392
  7,312
  8,320
  9,414
  10,596
  11,868
  13,232
  14,689
  16,243
  17,896
  19,651
  21,514
  23,486
  25,573
  27,780
  30,111
  32,571
  35,167
  37,904
  40,788
  43,827
  47,027
  50,396
  53,942
  57,672
  61,597
  65,724
  70,065
Total liabilities, $m
  27,488
  28,076
  28,822
  29,657
  30,577
  31,585
  32,679
  33,861
  35,133
  36,497
  37,954
  39,508
  41,161
  42,916
  44,779
  46,751
  48,838
  51,045
  53,376
  55,836
  58,432
  61,169
  64,053
  67,092
  70,292
  73,661
  77,207
  80,937
  84,862
  88,989
  93,330
Total equity, $m
  4,487
  4,570
  4,692
  4,828
  4,978
  5,142
  5,320
  5,512
  5,719
  5,941
  6,179
  6,431
  6,701
  6,986
  7,290
  7,611
  7,950
  8,310
  8,689
  9,090
  9,512
  9,958
  10,427
  10,922
  11,443
  11,991
  12,569
  13,176
  13,815
  14,487
  15,193
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  31,975
  32,646
  33,514
  34,485
  35,555
  36,727
  37,999
  39,373
  40,852
  42,438
  44,133
  45,939
  47,862
  49,902
  52,069
  54,362
  56,788
  59,355
  62,065
  64,926
  67,944
  71,127
  74,480
  78,014
  81,735
  85,652
  89,776
  94,113
  98,677
  103,476
  108,523
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.941
  1.050
  1.180
  1.320
  1.470
  1.620
  1.770
  1.920
  2.080
  2.230
  2.380
  2.530
  2.670
  2.810
  2.950
  3.090
  3.220
  3.340
  3.470
  3.580
  3.700
  3.810
  3.910
  4.010
  4.110
  4.200
  4.290
  4.380
  4.460
  4.540
  4.610
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  358
  252
  247
  239
  229
  219
  207
  194
  180
  165
  149
  132
  113
  94
  73
  50
  27
  2
  -34
  -72
  -113
  -155
  -200
  -248
  -298
  -351
  -406
  -465
  -527
  -591
  -659
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  1,453
  252
  247
  239
  229
  219
  207
  194
  180
  165
  149
  132
  113
  94
  73
  50
  27
  2
  -34
  -72
  -113
  -155
  -200
  -248
  -298
  -351
  -406
  -465
  -527
  -591
  -659
Change in working capital, $m
  693
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  760
  252
  247
  239
  229
  219
  207
  194
  180
  165
  149
  132
  113
  94
  73
  50
  27
  2
  -34
  -72
  -113
  -155
  -200
  -248
  -298
  -351
  -406
  -465
  -527
  -591
  -659
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -742
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  18
  252
  247
  239
  229
  219
  207
  194
  180
  165
  149
  132
  113
  94
  73
  50
  27
  2
  -34
  -72
  -113
  -155
  -200
  -248
  -298
  -351
  -406
  -465
  -527
  -591
  -659
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  78
  588
  747
  834
  921
  1,007
  1,094
  1,182
  1,272
  1,363
  1,457
  1,554
  1,653
  1,756
  1,862
  1,973
  2,087
  2,207
  2,331
  2,460
  2,596
  2,737
  2,884
  3,039
  3,200
  3,369
  3,546
  3,731
  3,924
  4,128
  4,340
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -198
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  85
  588
  747
  834
  921
  1,007
  1,094
  1,182
  1,272
  1,363
  1,457
  1,554
  1,653
  1,756
  1,862
  1,973
  2,087
  2,207
  2,331
  2,460
  2,596
  2,737
  2,884
  3,039
  3,200
  3,369
  3,546
  3,731
  3,924
  4,128
  4,340
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  102
  840
  994
  1,073
  1,150
  1,226
  1,301
  1,376
  1,452
  1,529
  1,606
  1,685
  1,766
  1,849
  1,935
  2,023
  2,114
  2,208
  2,297
  2,388
  2,483
  2,581
  2,684
  2,791
  2,902
  3,018
  3,139
  3,266
  3,398
  3,536
  3,681
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -348
  -83
  -122
  -136
  -150
  -164
  -178
  -192
  -207
  -222
  -237
  -253
  -269
  -286
  -303
  -321
  -340
  -359
  -379
  -401
  -423
  -446
  -470
  -495
  -521
  -548
  -577
  -607
  -639
  -672
  -707
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  757
  872
  937
  1,000
  1,062
  1,123
  1,184
  1,245
  1,307
  1,369
  1,432
  1,497
  1,564
  1,632
  1,702
  1,774
  1,849
  1,918
  1,988
  2,060
  2,136
  2,214
  2,296
  2,381
  2,470
  2,562
  2,658
  2,759
  2,864
  2,974
Discount rate, %
 
  9.50
  9.98
  10.47
  11.00
  11.55
  12.12
  12.73
  13.37
  14.04
  14.74
  15.47
  16.25
  17.06
  17.91
  18.81
  19.75
  20.74
  21.77
  22.86
  24.01
  25.21
  26.47
  27.79
  29.18
  30.64
  32.17
  33.78
  35.47
  37.24
  39.10
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  691
  721
  695
  659
  615
  565
  512
  456
  401
  346
  294
  246
  202
  162
  128
  99
  75
  55
  40
  28
  19
  13
  8
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

CNO Financial Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, develops, markets, and administers health insurance, annuity, individual life insurance, and other insurance products for senior and middle-income markets in the United States. It operates through Bankers Life, Washington National, Colonial Penn, and Long-Term Care in Run Off segments. The Bankers Life segment markets and distributes Medicare supplement insurance, interest-sensitive and traditional life insurance, fixed annuities, and long-term care insurance products; and Medicare advantage and prescription drug plan products through various distribution and marketing agreements. The Washington National segment markets and distributes supplemental health insurance, including specified disease, accident, and hospital indemnity insurance products; and life insurance at home and the worksite through independent marketing organizations and insurance agencies. The Colonial Penn segment primarily markets graded benefit and simplified issue life insurance directly to customers through television advertising, direct mail, the Internet, and telemarketing. The Long-Term Care in Run Off segment engages in the long-term care business. The company sells its products through career agents, independent producers, and direct marketing. CNO Financial Group, Inc. was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Carmel, Indiana.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CNO Financial Group (CNO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 9.5
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 0.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 4.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 94.1%
Total Debt to Equity 94.1%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Return On Total Capital 4.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Return On Equity 8.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 8.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Operating Margin 11.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Net Profit Margin 8.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Effective Tax Rate -1.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.9%
Payout Ratio 15.4%

CNO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CNO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4017 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CNO Financial Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of CNO Financial Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CNO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.5%, whose default value for CNO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CNO Financial Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CNO Financial Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CNO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CNO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for CNO Financial Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CNO Financial Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CNO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CNO are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CNO Financial Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CNO is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4487 million for CNO Financial Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 172.154 million for CNO Financial Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CNO Financial Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.4 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Colonial Penn Honored as Corporate Citizen of the Year   [Jun-19-17 12:49PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Rising Revenue and Earnings   [May-08-17 04:34PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ CNO beats 1Q profit forecasts   [Apr-26-17 06:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ 8 Stocks Trading Below the Peter Lynch Value   [Feb-22-17 03:37PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ CNO Financial Group Appoints Vice Presidents   [Jan-11-17 05:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ CNO Financial Group Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Nov-17-16 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ [$$] Insurer Sues Executives Tied to Platinum Hedge Fund   [12:16AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
Stock chart of CNO Financial statements of CNO Annual reports of CNO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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