Intrinsic value of Consolidated Communications Holdings - CNSL

Previous Close

$13.39

  Intrinsic Value

$5.35

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-60%

Previous close

$13.39

 
Intrinsic value

$5.35

 
Up/down potential

-60%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CNSL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -4.25
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  743
  758
  775
  795
  818
  842
  870
  899
  931
  966
  1,003
  1,042
  1,085
  1,130
  1,178
  1,229
  1,282
  1,339
  1,400
  1,463
  1,531
  1,601
  1,676
  1,755
  1,838
  1,926
  2,018
  2,115
  2,217
  2,324
  2,437
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  710
  725
  741
  760
  781
  804
  828
  855
  884
  915
  873
  908
  946
  986
  1,028
  1,073
  1,121
  1,172
  1,225
  1,281
  1,341
  1,403
  1,469
  1,539
  1,612
  1,689
  1,770
  1,856
  1,946
  2,040
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  662
  710
  725
  741
  760
  781
  804
  828
  855
  884
  915
  873
  908
  946
  986
  1,028
  1,073
  1,121
  1,172
  1,225
  1,281
  1,341
  1,403
  1,469
  1,539
  1,612
  1,689
  1,770
  1,856
  1,946
  2,040
Operating income, $m
  81
  48
  51
  54
  57
  62
  66
  71
  76
  82
  88
  170
  177
  184
  192
  200
  209
  218
  228
  238
  249
  261
  273
  286
  299
  314
  329
  344
  361
  379
  397
EBITDA, $m
  255
  228
  234
  240
  246
  254
  262
  271
  281
  291
  302
  314
  327
  341
  355
  370
  387
  404
  422
  441
  461
  483
  505
  529
  554
  581
  608
  638
  668
  701
  735
Interest expense (income), $m
  70
  69
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
  156
  165
  174
  183
  193
  203
  214
  226
  238
  251
  264
Earnings before tax, $m
  38
  -21
  -18
  -17
  -15
  -14
  -13
  -11
  -10
  -8
  -7
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  82
  84
  87
  90
  93
  96
  99
  103
  107
  110
  114
  119
  123
  128
  133
Tax expense, $m
  23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
Net income, $m
  15
  -21
  -18
  -17
  -15
  -14
  -13
  -11
  -10
  -8
  -7
  52
  53
  55
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  73
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  90
  93
  97

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  27
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,093
  2,105
  2,154
  2,209
  2,271
  2,340
  2,415
  2,498
  2,587
  2,683
  2,786
  2,896
  3,013
  3,138
  3,271
  3,413
  3,562
  3,720
  3,888
  4,065
  4,251
  4,449
  4,656
  4,875
  5,106
  5,349
  5,605
  5,875
  6,158
  6,456
  6,770
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,066
  2,105
  2,154
  2,209
  2,271
  2,340
  2,415
  2,498
  2,587
  2,683
  2,786
  2,896
  3,013
  3,138
  3,271
  3,413
  3,562
  3,720
  3,888
  4,065
  4,251
  4,449
  4,656
  4,875
  5,106
  5,349
  5,605
  5,875
  6,158
  6,456
  6,770
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
Average production assets, $m
  1,112
  1,135
  1,161
  1,190
  1,224
  1,261
  1,302
  1,346
  1,394
  1,446
  1,501
  1,561
  1,624
  1,691
  1,763
  1,839
  1,920
  2,005
  2,095
  2,191
  2,291
  2,397
  2,509
  2,627
  2,752
  2,883
  3,021
  3,166
  3,319
  3,480
  3,649
Working capital, $m
  -17
  -30
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
Total debt, $m
  1,392
  1,365
  1,408
  1,458
  1,514
  1,576
  1,644
  1,718
  1,798
  1,884
  1,977
  2,076
  2,182
  2,295
  2,414
  2,541
  2,676
  2,818
  2,969
  3,128
  3,296
  3,474
  3,661
  3,858
  4,066
  4,284
  4,515
  4,757
  5,012
  5,281
  5,563
Total liabilities, $m
  1,922
  1,895
  1,938
  1,988
  2,044
  2,106
  2,174
  2,248
  2,328
  2,414
  2,507
  2,606
  2,712
  2,825
  2,944
  3,071
  3,206
  3,348
  3,499
  3,658
  3,826
  4,004
  4,191
  4,388
  4,596
  4,814
  5,045
  5,287
  5,542
  5,811
  6,093
Total equity, $m
  171
  211
  215
  221
  227
  234
  242
  250
  259
  268
  279
  290
  301
  314
  327
  341
  356
  372
  389
  406
  425
  445
  466
  488
  511
  535
  561
  587
  616
  646
  677
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,093
  2,106
  2,153
  2,209
  2,271
  2,340
  2,416
  2,498
  2,587
  2,682
  2,786
  2,896
  3,013
  3,139
  3,271
  3,412
  3,562
  3,720
  3,888
  4,064
  4,251
  4,449
  4,657
  4,876
  5,107
  5,349
  5,606
  5,874
  6,158
  6,457
  6,770
Debt-to-equity ratio
  8.140
  6.480
  6.540
  6.600
  6.670
  6.730
  6.810
  6.880
  6.950
  7.020
  7.100
  7.170
  7.240
  7.310
  7.380
  7.450
  7.510
  7.580
  7.640
  7.700
  7.750
  7.810
  7.860
  7.910
  7.960
  8.010
  8.050
  8.100
  8.140
  8.180
  8.220
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.070
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  15
  -21
  -18
  -17
  -15
  -14
  -13
  -11
  -10
  -8
  -7
  52
  53
  55
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  73
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  90
  93
  97
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  174
  181
  183
  186
  189
  192
  196
  200
  205
  210
  215
  145
  150
  157
  163
  170
  178
  186
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
  243
  255
  267
  280
  293
  307
  322
  338
Funds from operations, $m
  214
  160
  166
  169
  174
  178
  183
  189
  195
  201
  208
  196
  204
  211
  220
  228
  237
  247
  258
  268
  280
  292
  305
  318
  333
  348
  363
  380
  397
  416
  435
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
Cash from operations, $m
  218
  160
  166
  170
  174
  179
  184
  190
  196
  203
  210
  198
  205
  213
  221
  230
  240
  249
  260
  271
  283
  295
  308
  321
  336
  351
  367
  384
  401
  420
  439
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -103
  -105
  -107
  -110
  -113
  -117
  -121
  -125
  -129
  -134
  -139
  -145
  -150
  -157
  -163
  -170
  -178
  -186
  -194
  -203
  -212
  -222
  -232
  -243
  -255
  -267
  -280
  -293
  -307
  -322
New CAPEX, $m
  -125
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -33
  -37
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -169
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -108
  -126
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -189
  -198
  -208
  -217
  -229
  -239
  -251
  -263
  -276
  -289
  -304
  -318
  -334
  -350
  -367
  -386
  -405
  -425
  -446
  -468
  -491
Free cash flow, $m
  110
  35
  35
  33
  31
  29
  27
  25
  23
  22
  20
  -1
  -3
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -48
  -52
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -9
  -12
  44
  50
  56
  62
  68
  74
  80
  86
  93
  99
  106
  113
  120
  127
  135
  142
  151
  159
  168
  177
  187
  197
  208
  219
  230
  242
  255
  268
  282
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  73
  22
  22
  22
  21
  20
  20
  19
  18
  17
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -21
  61
  66
  72
  78
  83
  88
  94
  99
  104
  110
  99
  106
  113
  120
  127
  135
  142
  151
  159
  168
  177
  187
  197
  208
  219
  230
  242
  255
  268
  282
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  89
  95
  101
  105
  108
  112
  115
  119
  122
  126
  130
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  220
  230
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  75
  -73
  -22
  -22
  -22
  -21
  -20
  -20
  -19
  -18
  -17
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  34
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  88
  91
  95
  100
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  134
  140
  146
  153
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  199
Discount rate, %
 
  12.20
  12.81
  13.45
  14.12
  14.83
  15.57
  16.35
  17.17
  18.02
  18.93
  19.87
  20.87
  21.91
  23.00
  24.16
  25.36
  26.63
  27.96
  29.36
  30.83
  32.37
  33.99
  35.69
  37.47
  39.35
  41.31
  43.38
  45.55
  47.83
  50.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  31
  62
  57
  51
  45
  40
  34
  29
  24
  20
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  92.4
  90.6
  89.0
  87.4
  86.0
  84.7
  83.4
  82.3
  81.3
  80.4
  80.4
  80.4
  80.4
  80.4
  80.4
  80.4
  80.4
  80.4
  80.4
  80.4
  80.4
  80.4
  80.4
  80.4
  80.4
  80.4
  80.4
  80.4
  80.4
  80.4

Consolidated Communications Holdings, Inc. is a holding company with operating subsidiaries that provide integrated communications services in consumer, commercial and carrier channels in California, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Texas and Wisconsin. The Company operates as both an Incumbent Local Exchange Carrier (ILEC) and a Competitive Local Exchange Carrier (CLEC) dependent upon the territory served. The Company provides a range of services and products that include local and long-distance service, broadband Internet access, video services, Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP), private line services, carrier grade access services, network capacity services over its regional fiber optic networks, cloud data services, data center and managed services, directory publishing, equipment sales and cloud data services. The Company markets services to its residential customers either individually or as a bundled package.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Consolidated Communications Holdings (CNSL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 45.2
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -6.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 805.3%
Total Debt to Equity 814%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Return On Total Capital 0.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Return On Equity 7.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 56.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 58.6%
EBITDA Margin 38%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.9%
Operating Margin 10.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Net Profit Margin 2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Effective Tax Rate 60.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 85.7%
Payout Ratio 520%

CNSL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CNSL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $743 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Consolidated Communications Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Consolidated Communications Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CNSL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.2%, whose default value for CNSL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Consolidated Communications Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Consolidated Communications Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CNSL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CNSL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5% for Consolidated Communications Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Consolidated Communications Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CNSL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CNSL are equal to 149.7%.

Life of production assets of 10.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Consolidated Communications Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CNSL is equal to -3.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $171 million for Consolidated Communications Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 70.697 million for Consolidated Communications Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Consolidated Communications Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 3 Dicey Tech Dividends Up To 13.3% - Sell Now!   [Nov-12-17 08:12AM  Forbes]
▶ Consolidated Communications posts 3Q loss   [08:43AM  Associated Press]
▶ Consolidated Communications Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Oct-31-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is Hormel a Good Dividend Stock?   [Aug-13-17 04:33PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Consolidated Communications posts 2Q loss   [Aug-04-17 02:36AM  Associated Press]
▶ Consolidated Communications Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-01-17 10:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Consolidated Communications launches CCI All Access App   [Jul-28-17 11:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Consolidated Communications Completes FairPoint Acquisition   [Jul-03-17 01:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Consolidated Communications posts 1Q loss   [May-04-17 09:14AM  Associated Press]
▶ Consolidated Communications Announces Quarterly Dividend   [May-02-17 01:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Consolidated Communications posts 4Q profit   [Feb-23-17 09:47AM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of CNSL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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