Intrinsic value of CNX Coal Resources - CNXC

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$15.20

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$15.20

 
Intrinsic value

$99.59

 
Up/down potential

+555%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CNXC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -14.07
  23.50
  21.65
  19.99
  18.49
  17.14
  15.92
  14.83
  13.85
  12.96
  12.17
  11.45
  10.81
  10.22
  9.70
  9.23
  8.81
  8.43
  8.09
  7.78
  7.50
  7.25
  7.02
  6.82
  6.64
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
Revenue, $m
  281
  347
  422
  507
  600
  703
  815
  936
  1,065
  1,204
  1,350
  1,505
  1,667
  1,838
  2,016
  2,202
  2,396
  2,598
  2,808
  3,026
  3,253
  3,489
  3,734
  3,989
  4,254
  4,529
  4,816
  5,114
  5,425
  5,749
  6,087
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  53
  65
  78
  92
  108
  125
  143
  163
  184
  207
  230
  255
  281
  308
  337
  367
  397
  430
  463
  498
  534
  571
  610
  651
  693
  737
  783
  830
  880
  931
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  212
  217
  223
  228
  234
  240
  246
  252
  259
  265
  272
  278
  285
  292
  300
  307
  315
  323
  331
  339
  348
  356
  365
  374
  384
  393
  403
  413
  424
  434
Total operating expenses, $m
  247
  265
  282
  301
  320
  342
  365
  389
  415
  443
  472
  502
  533
  566
  600
  637
  674
  712
  753
  794
  837
  882
  927
  975
  1,025
  1,077
  1,130
  1,186
  1,243
  1,304
  1,365
Operating income, $m
  35
  82
  140
  206
  280
  361
  450
  547
  650
  761
  879
  1,003
  1,134
  1,271
  1,415
  1,565
  1,722
  1,886
  2,056
  2,232
  2,416
  2,608
  2,807
  3,013
  3,229
  3,453
  3,686
  3,929
  4,182
  4,446
  4,721
EBITDA, $m
  77
  134
  203
  282
  370
  466
  572
  687
  810
  941
  1,081
  1,228
  1,383
  1,546
  1,717
  1,895
  2,081
  2,274
  2,476
  2,685
  2,903
  3,130
  3,365
  3,610
  3,865
  4,130
  4,406
  4,694
  4,994
  5,306
  5,632
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  7
  9
  12
  15
  18
  21
  25
  30
  34
  39
  44
  49
  55
  61
  67
  73
  80
  87
  94
  102
  110
  118
  126
  135
  144
  154
  163
  174
  184
  196
Earnings before tax, $m
  26
  75
  131
  194
  265
  343
  429
  521
  621
  727
  840
  959
  1,085
  1,216
  1,354
  1,499
  1,649
  1,806
  1,969
  2,138
  2,315
  2,498
  2,689
  2,887
  3,094
  3,309
  3,532
  3,765
  4,008
  4,261
  4,525
Tax expense, $m
  0
  20
  35
  52
  72
  93
  116
  141
  168
  196
  227
  259
  293
  328
  366
  405
  445
  488
  532
  577
  625
  675
  726
  780
  835
  893
  954
  1,017
  1,082
  1,151
  1,222
Net income, $m
  26
  55
  96
  142
  194
  251
  313
  381
  453
  531
  613
  700
  792
  888
  989
  1,094
  1,204
  1,318
  1,437
  1,561
  1,690
  1,824
  1,963
  2,108
  2,258
  2,415
  2,579
  2,749
  2,926
  3,111
  3,304

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  504
  610
  742
  890
  1,055
  1,236
  1,432
  1,645
  1,873
  2,115
  2,373
  2,644
  2,930
  3,230
  3,543
  3,870
  4,211
  4,566
  4,935
  5,319
  5,718
  6,132
  6,563
  7,011
  7,476
  7,960
  8,464
  8,988
  9,535
  10,104
  10,697
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  494
  610
  742
  890
  1,055
  1,236
  1,432
  1,645
  1,873
  2,115
  2,373
  2,644
  2,930
  3,230
  3,543
  3,870
  4,211
  4,566
  4,935
  5,319
  5,718
  6,132
  6,563
  7,011
  7,476
  7,960
  8,464
  8,988
  9,535
  10,104
  10,697
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.570
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
Average production assets, $m
  450
  556
  676
  811
  961
  1,126
  1,305
  1,498
  1,706
  1,927
  2,161
  2,409
  2,669
  2,942
  3,228
  3,526
  3,836
  4,159
  4,496
  4,845
  5,209
  5,586
  5,979
  6,387
  6,811
  7,252
  7,711
  8,188
  8,686
  9,204
  9,744
Working capital, $m
  -16
  -32
  -39
  -47
  -56
  -65
  -76
  -87
  -99
  -112
  -126
  -140
  -155
  -171
  -187
  -205
  -223
  -242
  -261
  -281
  -303
  -325
  -347
  -371
  -396
  -421
  -448
  -476
  -505
  -535
  -566
Total debt, $m
  198
  263
  337
  420
  513
  614
  725
  844
  971
  1,108
  1,252
  1,404
  1,565
  1,733
  1,909
  2,092
  2,283
  2,482
  2,690
  2,905
  3,129
  3,361
  3,603
  3,854
  4,115
  4,387
  4,669
  4,964
  5,270
  5,589
  5,922
Total liabilities, $m
  278
  342
  416
  499
  592
  693
  804
  923
  1,050
  1,187
  1,331
  1,483
  1,644
  1,812
  1,988
  2,171
  2,362
  2,561
  2,769
  2,984
  3,208
  3,440
  3,682
  3,933
  4,194
  4,466
  4,748
  5,043
  5,349
  5,668
  6,001
Total equity, $m
  227
  268
  326
  391
  463
  542
  629
  722
  822
  929
  1,042
  1,161
  1,286
  1,418
  1,555
  1,699
  1,849
  2,004
  2,167
  2,335
  2,510
  2,692
  2,881
  3,078
  3,282
  3,495
  3,716
  3,946
  4,186
  4,435
  4,696
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  505
  610
  742
  890
  1,055
  1,235
  1,433
  1,645
  1,872
  2,116
  2,373
  2,644
  2,930
  3,230
  3,543
  3,870
  4,211
  4,565
  4,936
  5,319
  5,718
  6,132
  6,563
  7,011
  7,476
  7,961
  8,464
  8,989
  9,535
  10,103
  10,697
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.872
  0.980
  1.040
  1.080
  1.110
  1.130
  1.150
  1.170
  1.180
  1.190
  1.200
  1.210
  1.220
  1.220
  1.230
  1.230
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  26
  55
  96
  142
  194
  251
  313
  381
  453
  531
  613
  700
  792
  888
  989
  1,094
  1,204
  1,318
  1,437
  1,561
  1,690
  1,824
  1,963
  2,108
  2,258
  2,415
  2,579
  2,749
  2,926
  3,111
  3,304
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  42
  52
  63
  76
  90
  105
  122
  140
  159
  180
  202
  225
  249
  275
  302
  329
  359
  389
  420
  453
  487
  522
  559
  597
  637
  678
  721
  765
  812
  860
  911
Funds from operations, $m
  76
  107
  159
  218
  283
  356
  435
  521
  613
  711
  815
  925
  1,041
  1,163
  1,290
  1,423
  1,562
  1,707
  1,857
  2,014
  2,177
  2,346
  2,522
  2,705
  2,895
  3,093
  3,299
  3,514
  3,738
  3,971
  4,214
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
Cash from operations, $m
  73
  98
  166
  225
  292
  365
  445
  532
  625
  724
  829
  940
  1,056
  1,179
  1,307
  1,441
  1,580
  1,726
  1,877
  2,034
  2,198
  2,368
  2,545
  2,728
  2,920
  3,119
  3,326
  3,542
  3,767
  4,001
  4,246
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -42
  -52
  -63
  -76
  -90
  -105
  -122
  -140
  -159
  -180
  -202
  -225
  -249
  -275
  -302
  -329
  -359
  -389
  -420
  -453
  -487
  -522
  -559
  -597
  -637
  -678
  -721
  -765
  -812
  -860
New CAPEX, $m
  -13
  -106
  -120
  -135
  -150
  -165
  -179
  -194
  -207
  -221
  -234
  -247
  -260
  -273
  -285
  -298
  -311
  -323
  -336
  -350
  -363
  -378
  -392
  -408
  -424
  -441
  -459
  -478
  -497
  -518
  -540
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -34
  -148
  -172
  -198
  -226
  -255
  -284
  -316
  -347
  -380
  -414
  -449
  -485
  -522
  -560
  -600
  -640
  -682
  -725
  -770
  -816
  -865
  -914
  -967
  -1,021
  -1,078
  -1,137
  -1,199
  -1,262
  -1,330
  -1,400
Free cash flow, $m
  39
  -50
  -7
  27
  66
  111
  161
  216
  277
  343
  414
  490
  571
  656
  747
  841
  940
  1,044
  1,152
  1,264
  1,381
  1,503
  1,630
  1,762
  1,899
  2,041
  2,189
  2,343
  2,504
  2,671
  2,845
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  16
  65
  74
  83
  92
  101
  110
  119
  128
  136
  144
  152
  160
  168
  176
  184
  191
  199
  207
  215
  224
  233
  242
  251
  261
  272
  283
  294
  306
  319
  333
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  26
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  7
  91
  74
  83
  92
  101
  110
  119
  128
  136
  144
  152
  160
  168
  176
  184
  191
  199
  207
  215
  224
  233
  242
  251
  261
  272
  283
  294
  306
  319
  333
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  46
  15
  68
  110
  159
  212
  271
  336
  405
  479
  558
  642
  731
  824
  922
  1,025
  1,131
  1,243
  1,359
  1,480
  1,605
  1,736
  1,872
  2,013
  2,160
  2,313
  2,472
  2,638
  2,810
  2,990
  3,178
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  45
  -51
  -58
  -65
  -72
  -79
  -86
  -93
  -100
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -162
  -168
  -175
  -182
  -189
  -197
  -204
  -213
  -221
  -230
  -240
  -250
  -260
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  10
  45
  86
  133
  185
  242
  305
  373
  445
  523
  606
  693
  785
  881
  982
  1,087
  1,197
  1,311
  1,430
  1,554
  1,683
  1,816
  1,955
  2,100
  2,251
  2,407
  2,570
  2,740
  2,917
Discount rate, %
 
  6.30
  6.62
  6.95
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.78
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.10
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.72
  17.55
  18.43
  19.35
  20.32
  21.33
  22.40
  23.52
  24.70
  25.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  8
  37
  65
  92
  116
  137
  155
  167
  175
  179
  177
  172
  163
  151
  137
  122
  106
  90
  75
  60
  48
  37
  28
  21
  15
  10
  7
  5
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2

CNX Coal Resources LP produces and sells high-Btu thermal coal in the Northern Appalachian Basin and the eastern United States. The company hold 25% undivided interest in, and operational control over, Pennsylvania mining complex, which consists of three underground mines and related infrastructure located in southwestern Pennsylvania that produce high-Btu bituminous thermal coal that is sold primarily to electric utilities. CNX Coal Resources GP LLC operates as a general partner of the company. The company was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Canonsburg, Pennsylvania. CNX Coal Resources LP operates as a subsidiary of CONSOL Energy Inc.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CNX Coal Resources (CNXC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 13.6
Price to Sales 1.3
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 5.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -14.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -61.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -30.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 87.2%
Total Debt to Equity 87.2%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.9%
Return On Total Capital 5.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.3%
Return On Equity 10.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.3%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 24.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31%
Operating Margin 12.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.1%
Net Profit Margin 9.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 165.4%

CNXC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CNXC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $281 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CNX Coal Resources. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of CNX Coal Resources. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CNXC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 23.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.3%, whose default value for CNXC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CNX Coal Resources, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CNX Coal Resources.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CNXC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 15.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $207 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CNXC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for CNX Coal Resources.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CNX Coal Resources. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CNXC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CNXC are equal to 160.1%.

Life of production assets of 10.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CNX Coal Resources operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CNXC is equal to -9.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $227 million for CNX Coal Resources - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 23.965 million for CNX Coal Resources is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CNX Coal Resources at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.


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Stock chart of CNXC Financial statements of CNXC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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