Intrinsic value of Coherent - COHR

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$183.52

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$183.52

 
Intrinsic value

$113.47

 
Up/down potential

-38%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of COHR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.86
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
Revenue, $m
  857
  916
  978
  1,042
  1,108
  1,177
  1,249
  1,324
  1,403
  1,484
  1,569
  1,658
  1,751
  1,848
  1,949
  2,055
  2,166
  2,282
  2,403
  2,530
  2,663
  2,803
  2,949
  3,102
  3,262
  3,430
  3,606
  3,791
  3,985
  4,188
  4,401
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  466
  496
  528
  561
  595
  631
  669
  708
  748
  790
  825
  871
  919
  969
  1,022
  1,077
  1,135
  1,195
  1,258
  1,324
  1,394
  1,466
  1,542
  1,622
  1,705
  1,793
  1,885
  1,981
  2,082
  2,188
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  309
  316
  324
  332
  341
  349
  358
  367
  376
  385
  395
  405
  415
  425
  436
  447
  458
  469
  481
  493
  506
  518
  531
  544
  558
  572
  586
  601
  616
  631
Total operating expenses, $m
  730
  775
  812
  852
  893
  936
  980
  1,027
  1,075
  1,124
  1,175
  1,220
  1,276
  1,334
  1,394
  1,458
  1,524
  1,593
  1,664
  1,739
  1,817
  1,900
  1,984
  2,073
  2,166
  2,263
  2,365
  2,471
  2,582
  2,698
  2,819
Operating income, $m
  128
  142
  165
  189
  215
  241
  269
  298
  328
  360
  394
  439
  476
  514
  555
  597
  642
  689
  739
  791
  846
  904
  964
  1,028
  1,096
  1,166
  1,241
  1,320
  1,402
  1,490
  1,581
EBITDA, $m
  162
  168
  193
  218
  245
  272
  301
  332
  363
  397
  432
  468
  507
  547
  589
  634
  681
  730
  782
  836
  893
  953
  1,017
  1,083
  1,154
  1,227
  1,305
  1,387
  1,473
  1,564
  1,660
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
Earnings before tax, $m
  123
  142
  165
  188
  213
  239
  266
  294
  324
  355
  388
  432
  468
  506
  545
  587
  631
  677
  726
  777
  830
  887
  946
  1,009
  1,075
  1,144
  1,217
  1,294
  1,375
  1,460
  1,550
Tax expense, $m
  35
  38
  44
  51
  58
  65
  72
  79
  87
  96
  105
  117
  126
  137
  147
  159
  170
  183
  196
  210
  224
  239
  255
  272
  290
  309
  329
  349
  371
  394
  419
Net income, $m
  88
  104
  120
  137
  156
  174
  194
  215
  237
  259
  283
  315
  342
  369
  398
  429
  461
  494
  530
  567
  606
  647
  691
  736
  784
  835
  888
  945
  1,004
  1,066
  1,132

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  400
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,161
  814
  868
  925
  984
  1,046
  1,110
  1,176
  1,246
  1,318
  1,394
  1,473
  1,555
  1,641
  1,731
  1,825
  1,924
  2,027
  2,134
  2,247
  2,365
  2,489
  2,619
  2,755
  2,897
  3,046
  3,203
  3,367
  3,539
  3,719
  3,908
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  761
  814
  868
  925
  984
  1,046
  1,110
  1,176
  1,246
  1,318
  1,394
  1,473
  1,555
  1,641
  1,731
  1,825
  1,924
  2,027
  2,134
  2,247
  2,365
  2,489
  2,619
  2,755
  2,897
  3,046
  3,203
  3,367
  3,539
  3,719
  3,908
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.126
  1.125
  1.127
  1.126
  1.126
  1.125
  1.125
  1.126
  1.126
  1.126
  1.126
  1.126
  1.126
  1.126
  1.126
  1.126
  1.126
  1.126
  1.126
  1.126
  1.126
  1.126
  1.126
  1.126
  1.126
  1.126
  1.126
  1.126
  1.126
  1.126
  1.126
Average production assets, $m
  82
  88
  94
  100
  106
  113
  120
  127
  135
  142
  151
  159
  168
  177
  187
  197
  208
  219
  231
  243
  256
  269
  283
  298
  313
  329
  346
  364
  383
  402
  422
Working capital, $m
  615
  251
  268
  285
  304
  323
  342
  363
  384
  407
  430
  454
  480
  506
  534
  563
  594
  625
  659
  693
  730
  768
  808
  850
  894
  940
  988
  1,039
  1,092
  1,147
  1,206
Total debt, $m
  20
  16
  32
  49
  67
  86
  105
  125
  146
  168
  191
  215
  240
  266
  293
  321
  351
  382
  415
  449
  484
  522
  561
  602
  645
  690
  737
  787
  839
  893
  950
Total liabilities, $m
  250
  246
  262
  279
  297
  316
  335
  355
  376
  398
  421
  445
  470
  496
  523
  551
  581
  612
  645
  679
  714
  752
  791
  832
  875
  920
  967
  1,017
  1,069
  1,123
  1,180
Total equity, $m
  911
  568
  606
  646
  687
  730
  774
  821
  869
  920
  973
  1,028
  1,085
  1,146
  1,208
  1,274
  1,343
  1,415
  1,490
  1,569
  1,651
  1,737
  1,828
  1,923
  2,022
  2,126
  2,235
  2,350
  2,470
  2,596
  2,728
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,161
  814
  868
  925
  984
  1,046
  1,109
  1,176
  1,245
  1,318
  1,394
  1,473
  1,555
  1,642
  1,731
  1,825
  1,924
  2,027
  2,135
  2,248
  2,365
  2,489
  2,619
  2,755
  2,897
  3,046
  3,202
  3,367
  3,539
  3,719
  3,908
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.022
  0.030
  0.050
  0.080
  0.100
  0.120
  0.140
  0.150
  0.170
  0.180
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.350
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.671
  0.698
  0.698
  0.698
  0.698
  0.698
  0.698
  0.698
  0.698
  0.698
  0.698
  0.698
  0.698
  0.698
  0.698
  0.698
  0.698
  0.698
  0.698
  0.698
  0.698
  0.698
  0.698
  0.698
  0.698
  0.698
  0.698
  0.698
  0.698
  0.698
  0.698

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  88
  104
  120
  137
  156
  174
  194
  215
  237
  259
  283
  315
  342
  369
  398
  429
  461
  494
  530
  567
  606
  647
  691
  736
  784
  835
  888
  945
  1,004
  1,066
  1,132
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  34
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
Funds from operations, $m
  77
  130
  148
  166
  185
  205
  226
  248
  272
  296
  321
  345
  373
  402
  433
  465
  499
  535
  572
  612
  653
  697
  743
  791
  842
  896
  953
  1,012
  1,075
  1,140
  1,210
Change in working capital, $m
  -28
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
Cash from operations, $m
  105
  173
  131
  149
  167
  186
  207
  228
  250
  273
  298
  321
  347
  376
  405
  436
  469
  503
  539
  577
  617
  659
  703
  750
  798
  850
  904
  961
  1,021
  1,085
  1,151
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
New CAPEX, $m
  -49
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
Cash from investing activities, $m
  103
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -94
Free cash flow, $m
  208
  152
  109
  125
  142
  160
  179
  199
  219
  241
  263
  284
  309
  335
  363
  391
  422
  453
  487
  522
  559
  598
  639
  682
  728
  776
  826
  879
  935
  994
  1,056
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  20
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  17
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  224
  167
  125
  142
  160
  179
  198
  219
  240
  262
  286
  308
  334
  361
  390
  420
  451
  485
  519
  556
  595
  636
  678
  723
  771
  821
  874
  929
  987
  1,049
  1,114
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -115
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  380
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  511
  87
  103
  119
  136
  154
  172
  192
  212
  233
  253
  276
  301
  327
  354
  383
  413
  444
  477
  512
  549
  588
  629
  672
  717
  764
  815
  867
  923
  982
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  489
  80
  89
  98
  105
  111
  116
  120
  122
  122
  120
  118
  114
  110
  104
  97
  90
  82
  74
  65
  57
  49
  41
  34
  28
  22
  17
  13
  10
  7
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Coherent, Inc. provides lasers and laser-based technology in a range of scientific, commercial, and industrial applications worldwide. It operates through two segments, Specialty Lasers and Systems, and Commercial Lasers and Components. The company designs, manufactures, services, and markets lasers, laser tools, precision optics, and related accessories. Its products are used in markets, such as microelectronics, materials processing, original equipment manufacturer components and instrumentation, and scientific research and government programs. The company markets its products through a direct sales force in the United States, as well as through direct sales personnel and independent representatives internationally. Coherent Inc. was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Coherent (COHR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 50.7
Price to Sales 5.2
Price to Book 4.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 42.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 79.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 122.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 17.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 20
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 2.2%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Return On Total Capital 10.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Return On Equity 10.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 44.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.9%
EBITDA Margin 18.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
Operating Margin 14.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 14.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Net Profit Margin 10.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Effective Tax Rate 28.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

COHR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the COHR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $857 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Coherent. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Coherent. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our COHR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for COHR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Coherent, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Coherent.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of COHR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 50.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $301 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for COHR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Coherent.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Coherent. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the COHR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for COHR are equal to 9.6%.

Life of production assets of 5.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Coherent operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for COHR is equal to 27.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $911 million for Coherent - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 23.987 million for Coherent is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Coherent at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.4 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Coherent, Inc. : May 19, 2017   [May-19-17 01:45PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Coherent posts 2Q profit   [May-09-17 06:34PM  Associated Press]
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▶ Running Before You Walk: Zacks Strategy   [Mar-23-17 04:02PM  Zacks]
▶ 7 Stocks Near 52-Week High to Buy Right Away   [Mar-06-17 08:50AM  Zacks]
▶ Coherent posts 1Q profit   [04:16PM  AP]
▶ /C O R R E C T I O N -- Coherent, Inc./   [Jan-25-17 04:21PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Coherent Inc. Price Target Hiked 28%: What You Need to Know   [Dec-28-16 12:11PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Hedge Funds Feel Good About Coherent, Inc. (COHR)   [Nov-28-16 10:05AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ These 2 Stocks Have Doubled Investors' Money in a Year   [Nov-17-16 01:44PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Innoviva Set to Join the S&P SmallCap 600   [Nov-07-16 06:04PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Coherent posts 4Q profit   [Nov-02-16 07:44PM  AP]
Stock chart of COHR Financial statements of COHR Annual reports of COHR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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