Intrinsic value of Conn's - CONN

Previous Close

$37.45

  Intrinsic Value

$10.69

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-71%

Previous close

$37.45

 
Intrinsic value

$10.69

 
Up/down potential

-71%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CONN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -0.99
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,597
  1,629
  1,666
  1,709
  1,757
  1,811
  1,869
  1,933
  2,002
  2,076
  2,155
  2,241
  2,332
  2,428
  2,531
  2,641
  2,756
  2,879
  3,008
  3,145
  3,290
  3,442
  3,603
  3,773
  3,951
  4,139
  4,337
  4,546
  4,765
  4,996
  5,239
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,513
  1,548
  1,588
  1,633
  1,682
  1,736
  1,795
  1,859
  1,928
  2,002
  2,082
  2,166
  2,256
  2,352
  2,453
  2,561
  2,674
  2,795
  2,922
  3,056
  3,198
  3,347
  3,505
  3,671
  3,845
  4,029
  4,223
  4,427
  4,641
  4,867
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,533
  1,513
  1,548
  1,588
  1,633
  1,682
  1,736
  1,795
  1,859
  1,928
  2,002
  2,082
  2,166
  2,256
  2,352
  2,453
  2,561
  2,674
  2,795
  2,922
  3,056
  3,198
  3,347
  3,505
  3,671
  3,845
  4,029
  4,223
  4,427
  4,641
  4,867
Operating income, $m
  64
  116
  118
  121
  125
  129
  133
  137
  142
  147
  153
  159
  166
  172
  180
  187
  196
  204
  214
  223
  234
  244
  256
  268
  281
  294
  308
  323
  338
  355
  372
EBITDA, $m
  93
  131
  134
  138
  142
  146
  151
  156
  162
  168
  174
  181
  188
  196
  204
  213
  222
  232
  243
  254
  265
  278
  291
  304
  319
  334
  350
  367
  385
  403
  423
Interest expense (income), $m
  71
  94
  96
  99
  102
  106
  109
  114
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  179
  187
  197
  207
  217
  229
  240
  253
  266
  280
  294
  309
  325
  342
Earnings before tax, $m
  -35
  22
  22
  22
  23
  23
  23
  24
  24
  24
  24
  24
  25
  25
  25
  25
  26
  26
  26
  26
  27
  27
  27
  27
  28
  28
  28
  29
  29
  29
  30
Tax expense, $m
  -9
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
Net income, $m
  -26
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  20
  20
  21
  21
  21
  21
  22
  22

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  24
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,941
  1,979
  2,025
  2,077
  2,135
  2,200
  2,271
  2,348
  2,432
  2,522
  2,619
  2,723
  2,833
  2,951
  3,076
  3,209
  3,349
  3,498
  3,655
  3,822
  3,997
  4,183
  4,378
  4,584
  4,801
  5,029
  5,270
  5,523
  5,790
  6,070
  6,365
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,917
  1,979
  2,025
  2,077
  2,135
  2,200
  2,271
  2,348
  2,432
  2,522
  2,619
  2,723
  2,833
  2,951
  3,076
  3,209
  3,349
  3,498
  3,655
  3,822
  3,997
  4,183
  4,378
  4,584
  4,801
  5,029
  5,270
  5,523
  5,790
  6,070
  6,365
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.833
  0.823
  0.823
  0.823
  0.823
  0.823
  0.823
  0.823
  0.823
  0.823
  0.823
  0.823
  0.823
  0.823
  0.823
  0.823
  0.823
  0.823
  0.823
  0.823
  0.823
  0.823
  0.823
  0.823
  0.823
  0.823
  0.823
  0.823
  0.823
  0.823
  0.823
Average production assets, $m
  80
  158
  162
  166
  170
  176
  181
  187
  194
  201
  209
  217
  226
  236
  246
  256
  267
  279
  292
  305
  319
  334
  349
  366
  383
  402
  421
  441
  462
  485
  508
Working capital, $m
  921
  65
  67
  68
  70
  72
  75
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  173
  182
  191
  200
  210
Total debt, $m
  1,145
  1,173
  1,206
  1,244
  1,287
  1,335
  1,387
  1,443
  1,505
  1,571
  1,642
  1,718
  1,799
  1,885
  1,977
  2,074
  2,177
  2,286
  2,401
  2,523
  2,652
  2,788
  2,931
  3,082
  3,241
  3,409
  3,585
  3,771
  3,966
  4,172
  4,388
Total liabilities, $m
  1,423
  1,451
  1,484
  1,522
  1,565
  1,613
  1,665
  1,721
  1,783
  1,849
  1,920
  1,996
  2,077
  2,163
  2,255
  2,352
  2,455
  2,564
  2,679
  2,801
  2,930
  3,066
  3,209
  3,360
  3,519
  3,687
  3,863
  4,049
  4,244
  4,450
  4,666
Total equity, $m
  518
  528
  541
  555
  570
  587
  606
  627
  649
  673
  699
  727
  756
  788
  821
  857
  894
  934
  976
  1,020
  1,067
  1,117
  1,169
  1,224
  1,282
  1,343
  1,407
  1,475
  1,546
  1,621
  1,700
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,941
  1,979
  2,025
  2,077
  2,135
  2,200
  2,271
  2,348
  2,432
  2,522
  2,619
  2,723
  2,833
  2,951
  3,076
  3,209
  3,349
  3,498
  3,655
  3,821
  3,997
  4,183
  4,378
  4,584
  4,801
  5,030
  5,270
  5,524
  5,790
  6,071
  6,366
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.210
  2.220
  2.230
  2.240
  2.260
  2.270
  2.290
  2.300
  2.320
  2.330
  2.350
  2.360
  2.380
  2.390
  2.410
  2.420
  2.430
  2.450
  2.460
  2.470
  2.480
  2.500
  2.510
  2.520
  2.530
  2.540
  2.550
  2.560
  2.570
  2.570
  2.580
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.258
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -26
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  20
  20
  21
  21
  21
  21
  22
  22
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  29
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
Funds from operations, $m
  70
  32
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  70
  73
Change in working capital, $m
  -135
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
Cash from operations, $m
  205
  30
  31
  31
  32
  32
  33
  33
  34
  35
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
New CAPEX, $m
  -47
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -36
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -22
  -24
  -24
  -26
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
Free cash flow, $m
  169
  12
  11
  11
  10
  10
  10
  9
  9
  8
  8
  7
  6
  6
  5
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
  0
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -117
  28
  33
  38
  43
  47
  52
  57
  61
  66
  71
  76
  81
  86
  92
  97
  103
  109
  115
  122
  129
  136
  143
  151
  159
  168
  176
  186
  195
  206
  216
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  2
  3
  5
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  43
  47
  50
  53
  57
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -158
  28
  33
  38
  43
  47
  54
  60
  66
  73
  79
  86
  92
  99
  107
  114
  122
  130
  138
  147
  156
  166
  175
  186
  197
  209
  219
  233
  245
  259
  273
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  11
  40
  45
  49
  53
  58
  64
  69
  75
  81
  87
  93
  99
  105
  112
  119
  126
  133
  141
  149
  157
  166
  175
  184
  194
  205
  215
  227
  239
  251
  264
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  20
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  29
  33
  35
  38
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  74
  79
  83
  88
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  123
  129
  136
  144
  151
  159
  167
  176
  185
Discount rate, %
 
  8.10
  8.51
  8.93
  9.38
  9.85
  10.34
  10.85
  11.40
  11.97
  12.57
  13.19
  13.85
  14.55
  15.27
  16.04
  16.84
  17.68
  18.57
  19.49
  20.47
  21.49
  22.57
  23.69
  24.88
  26.12
  27.43
  28.80
  30.24
  31.75
  33.34
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  27
  28
  27
  26
  25
  25
  24
  22
  20
  19
  17
  15
  13
  11
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.8
  99.6
  99.2
  98.8
  98.2
  97.6
  96.9
  96.2
  95.4
  94.5
  93.6
  92.6
  91.6
  90.6
  89.5
  88.4
  87.3
  86.1
  85.0
  83.8
  82.6
  81.4
  80.2
  79.0
  77.7

Conn's, Inc. is a specialty retailer that offers a selection of consumer goods and related services in addition to a credit solution for its core credit constrained consumers. The Company operates through two segments: retail and credit. The Retail segment includes product categories, such as furniture and mattress, including furniture and related accessories for the living room, dining room and bedroom; home appliance, including refrigerators, freezers, washers, dryers, dishwashers and ranges; Consumer electronics, including liquid-crystal-display (LED), organic LED (OLED), Ultra high definition (HD) and Internet-ready televisions, and home office, including computers, printers and accessories. Its credit segment provides short- and medium-term financing for its retail customers. Its credit offering provides financing solutions to credit constrained consumers having limited banking options. The Company operates its business through its retail stores and Website.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Conn's (CONN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -44.6
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -25.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 24
Current Ratio 0.7
LT Debt to Equity 220.8%
Total Debt to Equity 221%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Return On Total Capital -1.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Return On Equity -4.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 48.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.3%
EBITDA Margin 4.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Operating Margin 4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -2.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Net Profit Margin -1.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Effective Tax Rate 25.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

CONN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CONN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1597 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Conn's. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Conn's. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CONN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.1%, whose default value for CONN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Conn's, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Conn's.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CONN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CONN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.2% for Conn's.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Conn's. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CONN stock is equal to 0.3%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CONN are equal to 9.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Conn's operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CONN is equal to 4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $518 million for Conn's - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 31 million for Conn's is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Conn's at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.

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Financial statements of CONN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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