Intrinsic value of Core-Mark Holding - CORE

Previous Close

$23.63

  Intrinsic Value

$16.64

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-30%

Previous close

$23.63

 
Intrinsic value

$16.64

 
Up/down potential

-30%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CORE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  31.26
  7.90
  7.61
  7.35
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
Revenue, $m
  14,529
  15,677
  16,870
  18,110
  19,398
  20,737
  22,129
  23,576
  25,082
  26,649
  28,281
  29,981
  31,753
  33,601
  35,529
  37,541
  39,642
  41,837
  44,131
  46,530
  49,039
  51,664
  54,411
  57,287
  60,298
  63,453
  66,757
  70,220
  73,850
  77,654
  81,643
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  15,551
  16,734
  17,964
  19,241
  20,569
  21,950
  23,385
  24,879
  26,433
  28,052
  29,734
  31,491
  33,324
  35,236
  37,231
  39,315
  41,492
  43,767
  46,146
  48,634
  51,237
  53,962
  56,814
  59,801
  62,929
  66,207
  69,641
  73,241
  77,014
  80,970
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  14,439
  15,551
  16,734
  17,964
  19,241
  20,569
  21,950
  23,385
  24,879
  26,433
  28,052
  29,734
  31,491
  33,324
  35,236
  37,231
  39,315
  41,492
  43,767
  46,146
  48,634
  51,237
  53,962
  56,814
  59,801
  62,929
  66,207
  69,641
  73,241
  77,014
  80,970
Operating income, $m
  90
  126
  136
  146
  156
  167
  179
  191
  203
  216
  230
  247
  262
  277
  293
  310
  327
  345
  364
  384
  404
  426
  449
  472
  497
  523
  551
  579
  609
  640
  673
EBITDA, $m
  133
  154
  166
  178
  191
  204
  218
  232
  247
  262
  279
  295
  313
  331
  350
  370
  390
  412
  435
  458
  483
  509
  536
  564
  594
  625
  657
  692
  727
  765
  804
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  13
  15
  18
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  40
  44
  47
  51
  56
  60
  64
  69
  74
  79
  85
  90
  96
  102
  109
  116
  123
  130
  138
  146
  155
Earnings before tax, $m
  86
  113
  120
  128
  136
  144
  152
  161
  170
  180
  190
  204
  215
  226
  237
  250
  263
  276
  290
  304
  320
  336
  353
  370
  388
  408
  428
  449
  471
  494
  519
Tax expense, $m
  32
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  121
  127
  133
  140
Net income, $m
  54
  83
  88
  93
  99
  105
  111
  118
  124
  131
  139
  149
  157
  165
  173
  182
  192
  201
  212
  222
  233
  245
  257
  270
  284
  298
  312
  328
  344
  361
  379

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  26
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,492
  1,582
  1,702
  1,827
  1,957
  2,092
  2,233
  2,379
  2,531
  2,689
  2,854
  3,025
  3,204
  3,390
  3,585
  3,788
  4,000
  4,221
  4,453
  4,695
  4,948
  5,213
  5,490
  5,780
  6,084
  6,402
  6,736
  7,085
  7,451
  7,835
  8,238
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,466
  1,582
  1,702
  1,827
  1,957
  2,092
  2,233
  2,379
  2,531
  2,689
  2,854
  3,025
  3,204
  3,390
  3,585
  3,788
  4,000
  4,221
  4,453
  4,695
  4,948
  5,213
  5,490
  5,780
  6,084
  6,402
  6,736
  7,085
  7,451
  7,835
  8,238
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  9.911
  9.910
  9.912
  9.912
  9.912
  9.913
  9.910
  9.910
  9.910
  9.910
  9.909
  9.911
  9.910
  9.912
  9.910
  9.911
  9.911
  9.912
  9.910
  9.911
  9.911
  9.911
  9.911
  9.911
  9.911
  9.911
  9.910
  9.911
  9.911
  9.911
  9.911
Average production assets, $m
  116
  125
  135
  145
  155
  166
  177
  189
  201
  213
  226
  240
  254
  269
  284
  300
  317
  335
  353
  372
  392
  413
  435
  458
  482
  508
  534
  562
  591
  621
  653
Working capital, $m
  645
  705
  759
  815
  873
  933
  996
  1,061
  1,129
  1,199
  1,273
  1,349
  1,429
  1,512
  1,599
  1,689
  1,784
  1,883
  1,986
  2,094
  2,207
  2,325
  2,448
  2,578
  2,713
  2,855
  3,004
  3,160
  3,323
  3,494
  3,674
Total debt, $m
  386
  433
  510
  590
  673
  759
  848
  942
  1,039
  1,139
  1,245
  1,354
  1,468
  1,587
  1,711
  1,841
  1,976
  2,117
  2,265
  2,419
  2,581
  2,750
  2,927
  3,112
  3,306
  3,509
  3,721
  3,944
  4,178
  4,423
  4,680
Total liabilities, $m
  962
  1,009
  1,086
  1,166
  1,249
  1,335
  1,424
  1,518
  1,615
  1,715
  1,821
  1,930
  2,044
  2,163
  2,287
  2,417
  2,552
  2,693
  2,841
  2,995
  3,157
  3,326
  3,503
  3,688
  3,882
  4,085
  4,297
  4,520
  4,754
  4,999
  5,256
Total equity, $m
  530
  573
  616
  661
  709
  757
  808
  861
  916
  973
  1,033
  1,095
  1,160
  1,227
  1,298
  1,371
  1,448
  1,528
  1,612
  1,700
  1,791
  1,887
  1,987
  2,092
  2,202
  2,318
  2,438
  2,565
  2,697
  2,836
  2,982
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,492
  1,582
  1,702
  1,827
  1,958
  2,092
  2,232
  2,379
  2,531
  2,688
  2,854
  3,025
  3,204
  3,390
  3,585
  3,788
  4,000
  4,221
  4,453
  4,695
  4,948
  5,213
  5,490
  5,780
  6,084
  6,403
  6,735
  7,085
  7,451
  7,835
  8,238
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.728
  0.760
  0.830
  0.890
  0.950
  1.000
  1.050
  1.090
  1.130
  1.170
  1.200
  1.240
  1.270
  1.290
  1.320
  1.340
  1.360
  1.390
  1.410
  1.420
  1.440
  1.460
  1.470
  1.490
  1.500
  1.510
  1.530
  1.540
  1.550
  1.560
  1.570
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  54
  83
  88
  93
  99
  105
  111
  118
  124
  131
  139
  149
  157
  165
  173
  182
  192
  201
  212
  222
  233
  245
  257
  270
  284
  298
  312
  328
  344
  361
  379
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  43
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  71
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  96
  102
  107
  112
  118
  124
  131
Funds from operations, $m
  -321
  111
  118
  126
  134
  142
  150
  159
  168
  178
  187
  197
  207
  219
  230
  242
  255
  268
  282
  297
  312
  328
  344
  362
  380
  399
  419
  440
  462
  485
  509
Change in working capital, $m
  -223
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  73
  77
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  129
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
Cash from operations, $m
  -98
  60
  65
  70
  76
  82
  88
  94
  100
  107
  114
  120
  128
  135
  143
  152
  161
  170
  179
  189
  199
  210
  221
  232
  245
  257
  270
  284
  299
  314
  330
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -124
New CAPEX, $m
  -62
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -157
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -121
  -128
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -156
Free cash flow, $m
  -255
  27
  30
  33
  36
  40
  43
  47
  51
  54
  58
  61
  66
  70
  74
  79
  84
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  135
  142
  150
  157
  165
  174
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  295
  73
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  135
  141
  148
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
  257
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  283
  73
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  135
  141
  148
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
  257
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  30
  100
  107
  113
  119
  126
  133
  140
  147
  155
  163
  171
  180
  189
  198
  208
  219
  230
  241
  253
  266
  279
  293
  307
  323
  339
  355
  373
  391
  410
  430
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -36
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -133
  -139
  -146
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  57
  63
  68
  72
  77
  82
  87
  92
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
  150
  158
  166
  174
  183
  193
  202
  213
  223
  234
  246
  258
  271
  285
Discount rate, %
 
  6.20
  6.51
  6.84
  7.18
  7.54
  7.91
  8.31
  8.72
  9.16
  9.62
  10.10
  10.60
  11.13
  11.69
  12.28
  12.89
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.67
  16.45
  17.27
  18.14
  19.04
  20.00
  21.00
  22.05
  23.15
  24.30
  25.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  54
  56
  56
  55
  54
  52
  50
  47
  45
  41
  38
  34
  31
  27
  24
  20
  17
  14
  12
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Core-Mark Holding Company, Inc. is a wholesale distributor to the convenience retail industry in North America. The Company provides sales, marketing, distribution and logistics services. As of December 31, 2016, the Company offered services to over 43,000 customer locations across the United States and Canada through 30 distribution centers. The Company's segments include the United States, Canada and Corporate. The Company's primary customer base consists of traditional convenience stores, as well as alternative outlets selling consumer packaged goods. The Company's traditional convenience store customers include various national and super-regional convenience store operators, as well as independently owned convenience stores. Its alternative outlet customers include a range of store formats, including grocery stores, drug stores, liquor stores, cigarette and tobacco shops, hotel gift shops, military exchanges, college and corporate campuses, casinos and hardware stores.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Core-Mark Holding (CORE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.2
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -11.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -6.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 31.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 59%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 28.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 65.7%
Total Debt to Equity 72.8%
Interest Coverage 23
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Return On Total Capital 7.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Return On Equity 10.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Asset Turnover 11.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 5.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
EBITDA Margin 0.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Operating Margin 0.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Net Profit Margin 0.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Effective Tax Rate 37.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.5%
Payout Ratio 29.6%

CORE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CORE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $14529 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Core-Mark Holding. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Core-Mark Holding. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CORE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.2%, whose default value for CORE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Core-Mark Holding, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Core-Mark Holding.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CORE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 99.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CORE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Core-Mark Holding.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Core-Mark Holding. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CORE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CORE are equal to 0.8%.

Life of production assets of 3.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Core-Mark Holding operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CORE is equal to 4.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $530 million for Core-Mark Holding - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 45.915 million for Core-Mark Holding is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Core-Mark Holding at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Core-Mark to Webcast Presentation from 2018 ICR Conference   [Jan-04-18 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Core-Mark Holding Company, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Nov-07-17 09:20AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Core-Mark posts 3Q profit   [08:49AM  Associated Press]
▶ Core-Mark Announces Third Quarter 2017 Investor Call   [Oct-31-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Switch Turns On Investors In Trading Debut, IPO Raises $531 Mil.   [Oct-06-17 05:22PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Core-Mark Announces Changes to Senior Management Team   [Sep-27-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Core-Mark posts 2Q profit   [Aug-08-17 11:55PM  Associated Press]
▶ Core-Mark Announces Second Quarter 2017 Investor Call   [Aug-01-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Core-Mark (CORE) Catches Eye: Stock Jumps 7.4%   [Jul-12-17 08:42AM  Zacks]
▶ Core-Mark Announces Completion of Farner-Bocken Acquisition   [Jul-11-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Core-Mark Announces First Quarter 2017 Financial Results   [May-09-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Core-Mark posts 1Q profit   [06:22AM  Associated Press]
▶ Core-Mark Announces First Quarter 2017 Investor Call   [May-02-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for March 3rd   [Mar-03-17 09:20AM  Zacks]
▶ Core-Mark posts 4Q profit   [06:48AM  Associated Press]
▶ Core-Mark Announces Fourth Quarter 2016 Investor Call   [Feb-24-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Canadian Orebodies Inc. Opens the Market   [Jan-27-17 11:14AM  PR Newswire]
Financial statements of CORE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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