Intrinsic value of Chesapeake Utilities - CPK

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$73.35

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$73.35

 
Intrinsic value

$282.29

 
Up/down potential

+285%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CPK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.71
  35.20
  32.18
  29.46
  27.02
  24.81
  22.83
  21.05
  19.44
  18.00
  16.70
  15.53
  14.48
  13.53
  12.68
  11.91
  11.22
  10.60
  10.04
  9.53
  9.08
  8.67
  8.30
  7.97
  7.68
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.76
  6.58
  6.42
Revenue, $m
  509
  675
  892
  1,154
  1,466
  1,830
  2,248
  2,721
  3,251
  3,836
  4,476
  5,171
  5,920
  6,721
  7,573
  8,475
  9,425
  10,424
  11,470
  12,564
  13,704
  14,893
  16,130
  17,416
  18,753
  20,142
  21,586
  23,086
  24,646
  26,268
  27,955
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  559
  739
  956
  1,214
  1,515
  1,861
  2,252
  2,690
  3,174
  3,703
  4,277
  4,896
  5,558
  6,263
  7,009
  7,795
  8,621
  9,486
  10,390
  11,334
  12,316
  13,339
  14,403
  15,508
  16,657
  17,851
  19,092
  20,382
  21,724
  23,119
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  415
  559
  739
  956
  1,214
  1,515
  1,861
  2,252
  2,690
  3,174
  3,703
  4,277
  4,896
  5,558
  6,263
  7,009
  7,795
  8,621
  9,486
  10,390
  11,334
  12,316
  13,339
  14,403
  15,508
  16,657
  17,851
  19,092
  20,382
  21,724
  23,119
Operating income, $m
  84
  115
  153
  198
  252
  315
  387
  469
  561
  662
  773
  895
  1,024
  1,163
  1,310
  1,466
  1,631
  1,803
  1,984
  2,174
  2,371
  2,577
  2,791
  3,013
  3,244
  3,485
  3,735
  3,994
  4,264
  4,545
  4,836
EBITDA, $m
  116
  133
  176
  228
  290
  362
  444
  538
  642
  758
  885
  1,022
  1,170
  1,328
  1,496
  1,675
  1,863
  2,060
  2,267
  2,483
  2,708
  2,943
  3,187
  3,441
  3,706
  3,980
  4,266
  4,562
  4,870
  5,191
  5,524
Interest expense (income), $m
  10
  12
  22
  34
  48
  65
  85
  108
  134
  163
  195
  230
  268
  309
  353
  399
  449
  501
  555
  613
  672
  735
  800
  867
  938
  1,011
  1,087
  1,166
  1,248
  1,333
  1,422
Earnings before tax, $m
  73
  103
  131
  164
  204
  250
  302
  361
  427
  499
  578
  665
  756
  854
  957
  1,067
  1,182
  1,303
  1,429
  1,561
  1,699
  1,842
  1,991
  2,146
  2,307
  2,474
  2,648
  2,828
  3,016
  3,211
  3,415
Tax expense, $m
  28
  28
  35
  44
  55
  67
  82
  98
  115
  135
  156
  179
  204
  231
  258
  288
  319
  352
  386
  421
  459
  497
  538
  579
  623
  668
  715
  764
  814
  867
  922
Net income, $m
  45
  75
  95
  120
  149
  182
  221
  264
  312
  364
  422
  485
  552
  623
  699
  779
  863
  951
  1,043
  1,140
  1,240
  1,345
  1,453
  1,566
  1,684
  1,806
  1,933
  2,065
  2,202
  2,344
  2,493

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,229
  1,658
  2,191
  2,837
  3,603
  4,497
  5,524
  6,686
  7,987
  9,424
  10,998
  12,706
  14,545
  16,513
  18,607
  20,822
  23,158
  25,612
  28,183
  30,869
  33,672
  36,592
  39,631
  42,791
  46,076
  49,489
  53,037
  56,724
  60,556
  64,541
  68,686
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,225
  1,658
  2,191
  2,837
  3,603
  4,497
  5,524
  6,686
  7,987
  9,424
  10,998
  12,706
  14,545
  16,513
  18,607
  20,822
  23,158
  25,612
  28,183
  30,869
  33,672
  36,592
  39,631
  42,791
  46,076
  49,489
  53,037
  56,724
  60,556
  64,541
  68,686
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.416
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
Average production assets, $m
  62
  83
  110
  142
  180
  225
  277
  335
  400
  472
  551
  636
  728
  827
  931
  1,042
  1,159
  1,282
  1,411
  1,545
  1,686
  1,832
  1,984
  2,142
  2,307
  2,477
  2,655
  2,840
  3,031
  3,231
  3,438
Working capital, $m
  -193
  34
  45
  58
  73
  92
  112
  136
  163
  192
  224
  259
  296
  336
  379
  424
  471
  521
  574
  628
  685
  745
  806
  871
  938
  1,007
  1,079
  1,154
  1,232
  1,313
  1,398
Total debt, $m
  359
  630
  969
  1,380
  1,867
  2,436
  3,089
  3,829
  4,655
  5,570
  6,571
  7,657
  8,827
  10,078
  11,410
  12,819
  14,305
  15,865
  17,500
  19,209
  20,991
  22,848
  24,781
  26,791
  28,880
  31,051
  33,307
  35,652
  38,090
  40,624
  43,260
Total liabilities, $m
  783
  1,054
  1,393
  1,804
  2,291
  2,860
  3,513
  4,253
  5,079
  5,994
  6,995
  8,081
  9,251
  10,502
  11,834
  13,243
  14,729
  16,289
  17,924
  19,633
  21,415
  23,272
  25,205
  27,215
  29,304
  31,475
  33,731
  36,076
  38,514
  41,048
  43,684
Total equity, $m
  446
  603
  798
  1,033
  1,311
  1,637
  2,011
  2,434
  2,907
  3,430
  4,003
  4,625
  5,295
  6,011
  6,773
  7,579
  8,430
  9,323
  10,258
  11,236
  12,257
  13,319
  14,426
  15,576
  16,772
  18,014
  19,305
  20,647
  22,042
  23,493
  25,002
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,229
  1,657
  2,191
  2,837
  3,602
  4,497
  5,524
  6,687
  7,986
  9,424
  10,998
  12,706
  14,546
  16,513
  18,607
  20,822
  23,159
  25,612
  28,182
  30,869
  33,672
  36,591
  39,631
  42,791
  46,076
  49,489
  53,036
  56,723
  60,556
  64,541
  68,686
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.805
  1.040
  1.220
  1.340
  1.420
  1.490
  1.540
  1.570
  1.600
  1.620
  1.640
  1.660
  1.670
  1.680
  1.680
  1.690
  1.700
  1.700
  1.710
  1.710
  1.710
  1.720
  1.720
  1.720
  1.720
  1.720
  1.730
  1.730
  1.730
  1.730
  1.730
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  45
  75
  95
  120
  149
  182
  221
  264
  312
  364
  422
  485
  552
  623
  699
  779
  863
  951
  1,043
  1,140
  1,240
  1,345
  1,453
  1,566
  1,684
  1,806
  1,933
  2,065
  2,202
  2,344
  2,493
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  32
  18
  23
  30
  38
  47
  57
  68
  81
  96
  112
  127
  146
  165
  186
  208
  232
  256
  282
  309
  337
  366
  397
  428
  461
  495
  531
  568
  606
  646
  688
Funds from operations, $m
  86
  93
  119
  150
  186
  229
  277
  332
  393
  460
  534
  612
  698
  789
  885
  987
  1,095
  1,207
  1,325
  1,449
  1,577
  1,711
  1,850
  1,995
  2,145
  2,301
  2,464
  2,633
  2,808
  2,991
  3,180
Change in working capital, $m
  -17
  9
  11
  13
  16
  18
  21
  24
  26
  29
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
Cash from operations, $m
  103
  81
  108
  137
  171
  211
  257
  308
  367
  431
  501
  578
  660
  749
  843
  942
  1,047
  1,158
  1,273
  1,394
  1,520
  1,652
  1,788
  1,930
  2,078
  2,232
  2,392
  2,558
  2,730
  2,909
  3,096
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -12
  -17
  -22
  -28
  -36
  -45
  -55
  -67
  -80
  -94
  -110
  -127
  -146
  -165
  -186
  -208
  -232
  -256
  -282
  -309
  -337
  -366
  -397
  -428
  -461
  -495
  -531
  -568
  -606
  -646
New CAPEX, $m
  -170
  -21
  -27
  -32
  -38
  -45
  -51
  -58
  -65
  -72
  -79
  -86
  -92
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -192
  -199
  -208
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -170
  -33
  -44
  -54
  -66
  -81
  -96
  -113
  -132
  -152
  -173
  -196
  -219
  -245
  -270
  -297
  -325
  -355
  -385
  -416
  -449
  -483
  -518
  -555
  -592
  -632
  -673
  -716
  -760
  -805
  -854
Free cash flow, $m
  -67
  47
  65
  82
  104
  130
  160
  195
  235
  279
  328
  382
  441
  504
  572
  645
  722
  803
  888
  977
  1,071
  1,168
  1,270
  1,375
  1,485
  1,600
  1,719
  1,842
  1,970
  2,104
  2,242
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  27
  275
  339
  411
  487
  569
  653
  739
  827
  914
  1,001
  1,086
  1,170
  1,252
  1,331
  1,409
  1,486
  1,561
  1,635
  1,709
  1,783
  1,857
  1,933
  2,010
  2,089
  2,171
  2,256
  2,345
  2,437
  2,534
  2,636
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  58
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  85
  275
  339
  411
  487
  569
  653
  739
  827
  914
  1,001
  1,086
  1,170
  1,252
  1,331
  1,409
  1,486
  1,561
  1,635
  1,709
  1,783
  1,857
  1,933
  2,010
  2,089
  2,171
  2,256
  2,345
  2,437
  2,534
  2,636
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  18
  322
  404
  493
  591
  698
  813
  934
  1,061
  1,193
  1,329
  1,468
  1,611
  1,756
  1,904
  2,054
  2,207
  2,363
  2,523
  2,686
  2,853
  3,025
  3,202
  3,385
  3,575
  3,771
  3,975
  4,187
  4,408
  4,638
  4,879
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -88
  -157
  -194
  -235
  -279
  -325
  -374
  -423
  -473
  -523
  -573
  -622
  -670
  -716
  -762
  -807
  -850
  -893
  -936
  -978
  -1,020
  -1,063
  -1,106
  -1,150
  -1,196
  -1,243
  -1,291
  -1,342
  -1,395
  -1,450
  -1,509
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  165
  210
  258
  312
  373
  439
  511
  588
  670
  756
  847
  941
  1,040
  1,142
  1,248
  1,357
  1,470
  1,587
  1,708
  1,833
  1,962
  2,096
  2,235
  2,379
  2,528
  2,683
  2,845
  3,013
  3,188
  3,370
Discount rate, %
 
  6.50
  6.83
  7.17
  7.52
  7.90
  8.30
  8.71
  9.15
  9.60
  10.08
  10.59
  11.12
  11.67
  12.26
  12.87
  13.51
  14.19
  14.90
  15.64
  16.43
  17.25
  18.11
  19.01
  19.96
  20.96
  22.01
  23.11
  24.27
  25.48
  26.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  155
  184
  210
  234
  255
  272
  285
  292
  294
  289
  280
  266
  248
  226
  203
  179
  154
  130
  108
  88
  69
  54
  41
  30
  22
  15
  10
  7
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Chesapeake Utilities Corporation, a diversified energy company, engages in various energy and other businesses. The company operates in two segments, Regulated Energy and Unregulated Energy. The Regulated Energy segment distributes natural gas in Delaware, Maryland and Florida; distributes electricity in Florida; and transmits natural gas on the Delmarva Peninsula and in Florida. The Unregulated Energy segment wholesales and distributes propane; and markets and supplies natural gas. This segment also provides other unregulated energy services, such as energy-related merchandise sales; heating, ventilation and air conditioning services; and plumbing and electrical services. It also owns and leases office buildings in Delaware and Maryland. The company serves residential, commercial, industrial, and wholesale customers. Chesapeake Utilities Corporation was founded in 1859 and is headquartered in Dover, Delaware.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Chesapeake Utilities (CPK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.6
Price to Sales 2.4
Price to Book 2.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -17.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 17.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 30.7%
Total Debt to Equity 80.5%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Return On Total Capital 6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Return On Equity 11.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 23%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.9%
Operating Margin 16.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 14.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.8%
Net Profit Margin 9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Effective Tax Rate 38.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.4%
Payout Ratio 37.8%

CPK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CPK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $499 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Chesapeake Utilities. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Chesapeake Utilities. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CPK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 35.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.5%, whose default value for CPK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Chesapeake Utilities, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Chesapeake Utilities.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CPK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CPK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Chesapeake Utilities.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Chesapeake Utilities. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CPK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CPK are equal to 12.3%.

Life of production assets of 2.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Chesapeake Utilities operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CPK is equal to 5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $446 million for Chesapeake Utilities - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 16.329 million for Chesapeake Utilities is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Chesapeake Utilities at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Chesapeake Utilities misses 1Q profit forecasts   [06:46AM  Associated Press]
▶ My Small-Cap Dividend Growers Are More Miss Than Hit So Far   [Apr-26-17 11:00AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Chesapeake Utilities meets 4Q profit forecasts   [05:01AM  Associated Press]
Stock chart of CPK Financial statements of CPK Annual reports of CPK
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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