Intrinsic value of Chesapeake Utilities - CPK

Previous Close

$78.95

  Intrinsic Value

$164.23

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+108%

  Value-price divergence*

-50%

Previous close

$78.95

 
Intrinsic value

$164.23

 
Up/down potential

+108%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-50%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CPK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.71
  26.70
  24.53
  22.58
  20.82
  19.24
  17.81
  16.53
  15.38
  14.34
  13.41
  12.57
  11.81
  11.13
  10.52
  9.96
  9.47
  9.02
  8.62
  8.26
  7.93
  7.64
  7.37
  7.14
  6.92
  6.73
  6.56
  6.40
  6.26
  6.14
  6.02
Revenue, $m
  509
  632
  787
  965
  1,166
  1,390
  1,638
  1,909
  2,202
  2,518
  2,856
  3,215
  3,594
  3,994
  4,414
  4,854
  5,314
  5,793
  6,292
  6,812
  7,352
  7,914
  8,497
  9,104
  9,734
  10,389
  11,071
  11,779
  12,517
  13,285
  14,085
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  524
  653
  800
  966
  1,151
  1,356
  1,580
  1,823
  2,084
  2,363
  2,658
  2,972
  3,303
  3,651
  4,014
  4,394
  4,791
  5,204
  5,633
  6,080
  6,545
  7,027
  7,529
  8,050
  8,592
  9,155
  9,741
  10,351
  10,987
  11,648
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  415
  524
  653
  800
  966
  1,151
  1,356
  1,580
  1,823
  2,084
  2,363
  2,658
  2,972
  3,303
  3,651
  4,014
  4,394
  4,791
  5,204
  5,633
  6,080
  6,545
  7,027
  7,529
  8,050
  8,592
  9,155
  9,741
  10,351
  10,987
  11,648
Operating income, $m
  84
  108
  135
  165
  200
  239
  282
  329
  380
  434
  493
  556
  622
  691
  764
  840
  919
  1,002
  1,089
  1,179
  1,272
  1,369
  1,470
  1,575
  1,684
  1,797
  1,915
  2,038
  2,166
  2,298
  2,437
EBITDA, $m
  116
  117
  146
  179
  216
  258
  304
  354
  408
  467
  529
  596
  666
  740
  818
  899
  985
  1,073
  1,166
  1,262
  1,362
  1,466
  1,575
  1,687
  1,804
  1,925
  2,051
  2,183
  2,319
  2,462
  2,610
Interest expense (income), $m
  10
  12
  20
  28
  38
  49
  61
  75
  90
  106
  123
  141
  161
  182
  204
  227
  251
  276
  302
  329
  358
  387
  418
  450
  483
  518
  553
  591
  629
  670
  712
Earnings before tax, $m
  73
  95
  115
  137
  162
  190
  221
  254
  290
  329
  370
  415
  461
  509
  560
  613
  669
  726
  787
  849
  914
  982
  1,052
  1,125
  1,201
  1,280
  1,362
  1,447
  1,536
  1,629
  1,725
Tax expense, $m
  28
  26
  31
  37
  44
  51
  60
  69
  78
  89
  100
  112
  124
  138
  151
  166
  181
  196
  212
  229
  247
  265
  284
  304
  324
  346
  368
  391
  415
  440
  466
Net income, $m
  45
  70
  84
  100
  118
  139
  161
  185
  212
  240
  270
  303
  336
  372
  409
  448
  488
  530
  574
  620
  667
  717
  768
  821
  877
  934
  994
  1,056
  1,121
  1,189
  1,259

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,229
  1,553
  1,934
  2,371
  2,865
  3,416
  4,024
  4,690
  5,411
  6,187
  7,017
  7,898
  8,831
  9,814
  10,846
  11,927
  13,056
  14,234
  15,460
  16,737
  18,064
  19,444
  20,878
  22,368
  23,917
  25,526
  27,200
  28,942
  30,754
  32,641
  34,607
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,225
  1,553
  1,934
  2,371
  2,865
  3,416
  4,024
  4,690
  5,411
  6,187
  7,017
  7,898
  8,831
  9,814
  10,846
  11,927
  13,056
  14,234
  15,460
  16,737
  18,064
  19,444
  20,878
  22,368
  23,917
  25,526
  27,200
  28,942
  30,754
  32,641
  34,607
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.416
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
Average production assets, $m
  62
  78
  97
  119
  143
  171
  201
  235
  271
  310
  351
  395
  442
  491
  543
  597
  654
  713
  774
  838
  904
  973
  1,045
  1,120
  1,197
  1,278
  1,362
  1,449
  1,540
  1,634
  1,732
Working capital, $m
  -193
  32
  39
  48
  58
  70
  82
  95
  110
  126
  143
  161
  180
  200
  221
  243
  266
  290
  315
  341
  368
  396
  425
  455
  487
  519
  554
  589
  626
  664
  704
Total debt, $m
  359
  564
  806
  1,084
  1,398
  1,749
  2,136
  2,559
  3,017
  3,511
  4,039
  4,599
  5,193
  5,818
  6,474
  7,161
  7,879
  8,629
  9,409
  10,221
  11,065
  11,942
  12,854
  13,802
  14,787
  15,811
  16,876
  17,983
  19,136
  20,336
  21,586
Total liabilities, $m
  783
  988
  1,230
  1,508
  1,822
  2,173
  2,560
  2,983
  3,441
  3,935
  4,463
  5,023
  5,617
  6,242
  6,898
  7,585
  8,303
  9,053
  9,833
  10,645
  11,489
  12,366
  13,278
  14,226
  15,211
  16,235
  17,300
  18,407
  19,560
  20,760
  22,010
Total equity, $m
  446
  565
  704
  863
  1,043
  1,243
  1,465
  1,707
  1,970
  2,252
  2,554
  2,875
  3,215
  3,572
  3,948
  4,341
  4,752
  5,181
  5,628
  6,092
  6,575
  7,078
  7,600
  8,142
  8,706
  9,292
  9,901
  10,535
  11,195
  11,881
  12,597
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,229
  1,553
  1,934
  2,371
  2,865
  3,416
  4,025
  4,690
  5,411
  6,187
  7,017
  7,898
  8,832
  9,814
  10,846
  11,926
  13,055
  14,234
  15,461
  16,737
  18,064
  19,444
  20,878
  22,368
  23,917
  25,527
  27,201
  28,942
  30,755
  32,641
  34,607
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.805
  1.000
  1.150
  1.260
  1.340
  1.410
  1.460
  1.500
  1.530
  1.560
  1.580
  1.600
  1.620
  1.630
  1.640
  1.650
  1.660
  1.670
  1.670
  1.680
  1.680
  1.690
  1.690
  1.700
  1.700
  1.700
  1.700
  1.710
  1.710
  1.710
  1.710
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  45
  70
  84
  100
  118
  139
  161
  185
  212
  240
  270
  303
  336
  372
  409
  448
  488
  530
  574
  620
  667
  717
  768
  821
  877
  934
  994
  1,056
  1,121
  1,189
  1,259
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  32
  9
  11
  13
  16
  19
  22
  25
  29
  32
  37
  40
  44
  49
  54
  60
  65
  71
  77
  84
  90
  97
  105
  112
  120
  128
  136
  145
  154
  163
  173
Funds from operations, $m
  86
  79
  95
  114
  134
  157
  183
  210
  240
  272
  306
  342
  381
  421
  463
  507
  553
  602
  652
  704
  758
  814
  873
  933
  996
  1,062
  1,130
  1,201
  1,275
  1,352
  1,433
Change in working capital, $m
  -17
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
Cash from operations, $m
  103
  72
  87
  105
  124
  146
  170
  197
  226
  257
  290
  324
  362
  401
  442
  485
  530
  578
  627
  678
  731
  786
  843
  903
  965
  1,029
  1,096
  1,166
  1,238
  1,314
  1,393
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -27
  -31
  -35
  -40
  -44
  -49
  -54
  -60
  -65
  -71
  -77
  -84
  -90
  -97
  -105
  -112
  -120
  -128
  -136
  -145
  -154
  -163
New CAPEX, $m
  -170
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -94
  -98
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -170
  -22
  -27
  -32
  -37
  -42
  -47
  -53
  -59
  -66
  -73
  -79
  -87
  -93
  -101
  -108
  -117
  -124
  -132
  -141
  -150
  -159
  -169
  -180
  -190
  -201
  -212
  -223
  -236
  -248
  -261
Free cash flow, $m
  -67
  50
  61
  73
  88
  104
  123
  143
  166
  191
  217
  245
  275
  308
  341
  377
  414
  453
  494
  536
  581
  627
  674
  724
  775
  829
  885
  943
  1,003
  1,065
  1,131
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  27
  209
  242
  278
  314
  351
  387
  423
  459
  494
  528
  561
  593
  625
  656
  687
  718
  749
  780
  812
  844
  878
  912
  948
  985
  1,024
  1,065
  1,108
  1,153
  1,200
  1,250
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  58
  50
  55
  59
  61
  62
  60
  57
  51
  43
  32
  18
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  85
  259
  297
  337
  375
  413
  447
  480
  510
  537
  560
  579
  596
  625
  656
  687
  718
  749
  780
  812
  844
  878
  912
  948
  985
  1,024
  1,065
  1,108
  1,153
  1,200
  1,250
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  18
  309
  358
  410
  463
  517
  570
  623
  676
  727
  777
  824
  872
  933
  998
  1,064
  1,132
  1,202
  1,274
  1,348
  1,425
  1,504
  1,586
  1,672
  1,760
  1,853
  1,949
  2,050
  2,155
  2,266
  2,381
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -88
  -119
  -139
  -159
  -180
  -201
  -221
  -242
  -263
  -282
  -302
  -321
  -340
  -358
  -376
  -393
  -411
  -429
  -447
  -465
  -483
  -502
  -522
  -542
  -564
  -586
  -609
  -634
  -660
  -687
  -716
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  189
  219
  251
  283
  316
  349
  381
  413
  444
  475
  503
  532
  575
  622
  671
  721
  774
  828
  884
  942
  1,002
  1,064
  1,129
  1,197
  1,267
  1,340
  1,416
  1,496
  1,579
  1,665
Discount rate, %
 
  6.50
  6.83
  7.17
  7.52
  7.90
  8.30
  8.71
  9.15
  9.60
  10.08
  10.59
  11.12
  11.67
  12.26
  12.87
  13.51
  14.19
  14.90
  15.64
  16.43
  17.25
  18.11
  19.01
  19.96
  20.96
  22.01
  23.11
  24.27
  25.48
  26.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  178
  192
  204
  212
  216
  216
  212
  205
  195
  182
  166
  150
  137
  123
  109
  95
  81
  68
  56
  45
  35
  27
  21
  15
  11
  8
  5
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  96.3
  93.2
  90.6
  88.5
  86.7
  85.3
  84.2
  83.3
  82.7
  82.3
  82.1
  82.1
  82.1
  82.1
  82.1
  82.1
  82.1
  82.1
  82.1
  82.1
  82.1
  82.1
  82.1
  82.1
  82.1
  82.1
  82.1
  82.1
  82.1
  82.1

Chesapeake Utilities Corporation, a diversified energy company, engages in various energy and other businesses. The company operates in two segments, Regulated Energy and Unregulated Energy. The Regulated Energy segment distributes natural gas in Delaware, Maryland and Florida; distributes electricity in Florida; and transmits natural gas on the Delmarva Peninsula and in Florida. The Unregulated Energy segment wholesales and distributes propane; and markets and supplies natural gas. This segment also provides other unregulated energy services, such as energy-related merchandise sales; heating, ventilation and air conditioning services; and plumbing and electrical services. It also owns and leases office buildings in Delaware and Maryland. The company serves residential, commercial, industrial, and wholesale customers. Chesapeake Utilities Corporation was founded in 1859 and is headquartered in Dover, Delaware.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Chesapeake Utilities (CPK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 28.6
Price to Sales 2.6
Price to Book 2.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -19.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 17.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 30.7%
Total Debt to Equity 80.5%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Return On Total Capital 6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Return On Equity 11.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 23%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.9%
Operating Margin 16.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 14.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.8%
Net Profit Margin 9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Effective Tax Rate 38.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.4%
Payout Ratio 37.8%

CPK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CPK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $499 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Chesapeake Utilities. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Chesapeake Utilities. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CPK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 26.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.5%, whose default value for CPK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Chesapeake Utilities, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Chesapeake Utilities.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CPK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CPK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Chesapeake Utilities.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Chesapeake Utilities. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CPK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CPK are equal to 12.3%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Chesapeake Utilities operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CPK is equal to 5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $446 million for Chesapeake Utilities - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 16.486 million for Chesapeake Utilities is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Chesapeake Utilities at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Chesapeake Utilities misses 2Q profit forecasts   [01:55AM  Associated Press]
▶ Chesapeake Utilities misses 1Q profit forecasts   [06:46AM  Associated Press]
▶ My Small-Cap Dividend Growers Are More Miss Than Hit So Far   [Apr-26-17 11:00AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Chesapeake Utilities meets 4Q profit forecasts   [05:01AM  Associated Press]
Stock chart of CPK Financial statements of CPK
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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