Intrinsic value of Computer Programs&Systems - CPSI

Previous Close

$31.05

  Intrinsic Value

$21.06

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-32%

  Value-price divergence*

+14%

Previous close

$31.05

 
Intrinsic value

$21.06

 
Up/down potential

-32%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+14%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CPSI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  46.70
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  267
  272
  279
  286
  294
  303
  312
  323
  335
  347
  360
  375
  390
  406
  423
  441
  461
  481
  503
  526
  550
  575
  602
  631
  661
  692
  725
  760
  797
  835
  876
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  234
  239
  245
  251
  258
  266
  275
  284
  294
  304
  299
  311
  324
  338
  352
  368
  384
  401
  420
  439
  459
  481
  503
  527
  552
  579
  607
  636
  667
  699
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  253
  234
  239
  245
  251
  258
  266
  275
  284
  294
  304
  299
  311
  324
  338
  352
  368
  384
  401
  420
  439
  459
  481
  503
  527
  552
  579
  607
  636
  667
  699
Operating income, $m
  14
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  116
  122
  127
  133
  140
  146
  153
  161
  169
  177
EBITDA, $m
  27
  61
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  187
  196
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
Earnings before tax, $m
  8
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
Tax expense, $m
  4
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
Net income, $m
  4
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  43
  45
  47
  48
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  63
  65
  68
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  339
  344
  352
  361
  371
  382
  395
  408
  423
  438
  455
  473
  492
  513
  534
  557
  582
  608
  635
  664
  694
  727
  761
  796
  834
  874
  916
  960
  1,006
  1,055
  1,106
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  337
  344
  352
  361
  371
  382
  395
  408
  423
  438
  455
  473
  492
  513
  534
  557
  582
  608
  635
  664
  694
  727
  761
  796
  834
  874
  916
  960
  1,006
  1,055
  1,106
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.792
  0.791
  0.793
  0.792
  0.792
  0.793
  0.790
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.791
  0.793
  0.793
  0.791
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.791
  0.792
  0.792
  0.793
  0.791
  0.791
  0.793
  0.793
  0.792
  0.791
  0.792
  0.792
  0.791
  0.792
Average production assets, $m
  68
  69
  70
  72
  74
  77
  79
  82
  85
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  146
  152
  160
  167
  175
  183
  192
  202
  211
  222
Working capital, $m
  14
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
Total debt, $m
  153
  155
  159
  164
  169
  175
  182
  189
  196
  205
  214
  223
  233
  244
  256
  268
  281
  295
  309
  325
  341
  358
  376
  395
  415
  436
  458
  482
  506
  532
  559
Total liabilities, $m
  181
  183
  187
  192
  197
  203
  210
  217
  224
  233
  242
  251
  261
  272
  284
  296
  309
  323
  337
  353
  369
  386
  404
  423
  443
  464
  486
  510
  534
  560
  587
Total equity, $m
  158
  161
  165
  169
  174
  179
  185
  191
  198
  206
  213
  222
  231
  240
  251
  261
  273
  285
  298
  311
  326
  341
  357
  373
  391
  410
  429
  450
  472
  495
  519
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  339
  344
  352
  361
  371
  382
  395
  408
  422
  439
  455
  473
  492
  512
  535
  557
  582
  608
  635
  664
  695
  727
  761
  796
  834
  874
  915
  960
  1,006
  1,055
  1,106
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.968
  0.960
  0.960
  0.970
  0.970
  0.980
  0.980
  0.990
  0.990
  1.000
  1.000
  1.010
  1.010
  1.020
  1.020
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.040
  1.040
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.070
  1.070
  1.070
  1.080
  1.080
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.463
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  4
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  43
  45
  47
  48
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  63
  65
  68
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  13
  23
  23
  23
  23
  23
  24
  24
  24
  24
  25
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
Funds from operations, $m
  -25
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  112
  118
Change in working capital, $m
  -27
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
Cash from operations, $m
  2
  42
  42
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -152
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -25
  -27
  -28
Free cash flow, $m
  -150
  34
  35
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  151
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  152
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  2
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  48
  50
  53
  55
  57
  60
  63
  65
  68
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -83
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  35
  35
  36
  37
  38
  38
  39
  41
  42
  43
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  57
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
Discount rate, %
 
  7.90
  8.30
  8.71
  9.15
  9.60
  10.08
  10.59
  11.12
  11.67
  12.26
  12.87
  13.51
  14.19
  14.90
  15.64
  16.42
  17.24
  18.11
  19.01
  19.96
  20.96
  22.01
  23.11
  24.27
  25.48
  26.75
  28.09
  29.49
  30.97
  32.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  32
  30
  28
  26
  24
  22
  20
  17
  15
  14
  11
  9
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Computer Programs and Systems, Inc. provides healthcare information technology solutions and services for rural and community hospitals, and post-acute care facilities in the United States. Its software systems include patient management software that enables a hospital to identify a patient at various points in the healthcare delivery system, and to collect and maintain patient information throughout the process of patient care; and financial accounting software, which offers business office applications to track and coordinate information needed for managerial decision-making. The company also provides clinical software that automates record keeping and reporting for various clinical functions; patient care applications; and enterprise applications that support its products for use in various areas of the hospital. In addition, it offers Healthland Centriq, a Web-based electronic health record (EHR) platform that centralizes data from various care areas; and Healthland Classic that offers a suite of integrated applications for managing operations, resources, and people. Further, the company develops an iPad application that provides users with access to its EHR system from Apple iOS devices; IdentiReg, an application that integrates biometric fingerprint scanners into the patient registration process; and clinical content works that provides structured patient care documentation using managed entry methodology and content. Additionally, it provides support and maintenance services; business management, consulting, and managed information technology services; and system implementation and training services, as well as sells software, hardware, peripherals, forms, and office supplies. It serves nursing homes; home health agencies; physician clinics; and small specialty hospitals that focus on medical areas, such as surgery, rehabilitation, and long-term acute care. Computer Programs and Systems, Inc. was founded in 1979 and is based in Mobile, Alabama.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Computer Programs&Systems (CPSI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 105
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 2.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 210.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 210.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 46.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -100%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 93%
Total Debt to Equity 96.8%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.8%
Return On Total Capital 2.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 23%
Return On Equity 3.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.5%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 51.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53%
EBITDA Margin 10.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.3%
Operating Margin 5.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Net Profit Margin 1.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Effective Tax Rate 50%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.3%
Payout Ratio 625%

CPSI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CPSI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $267 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Computer Programs&Systems. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Computer Programs&Systems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CPSI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.9%, whose default value for CPSI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Computer Programs&Systems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Computer Programs&Systems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CPSI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CPSI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.8% for Computer Programs&Systems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Computer Programs&Systems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CPSI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CPSI are equal to 25.3%.

Life of production assets of 11.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Computer Programs&Systems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CPSI is equal to 6.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $158 million for Computer Programs&Systems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 13.483 million for Computer Programs&Systems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Computer Programs&Systems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for July 5th   [Jul-05-17 10:07AM  Zacks]
▶ CPSI Launches New Solution at Annual User Conference   [May-15-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Computer Programs and Systems posts 1Q profit   [May-04-17 04:58PM  Associated Press]
▶ CPSI Announces First Quarter 2017 Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Evident, TruBridge Solutions Selected by Kansas Hospital   [Apr-13-17 10:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ TruCode and CPSI Announce Partnership   [09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ 8 High-Yield Stocks With Falling Prices   [Feb-21-17 05:51PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Evident Highest Ranked EHR Vendor for 7th Consecutive Year   [Feb-14-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Computer Programs and Systems posts 4Q profit   [Feb-09-17 04:37PM  Associated Press]
▶ CPSI Launches Rural ACOs in Partnership with Caravan Health   [Jan-09-17 10:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Evident EHR Selected by Oklahoma Childrens Hospital   [Jan-05-17 02:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Is Computer Programs & Systems, Inc. (CPSI) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-13-16 01:47PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ These 2 Dividend Stocks Could Slash Their Payouts   [Dec-02-16 06:21PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ CPSI Announces Third Quarter 2016 Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ American HealthTech Rolls out Development Partner Program   [Nov-02-16 02:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ CPSI Names William J. Hayes, M.D., Medical Director   [Oct-13-16 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ 3 Stocks That Are Nothing but Dividend-Yield Traps   [Sep-20-16 02:17PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ 3 High-Yielding Healthcare Stocks I'm Not Buying   [Aug-20-16 09:01AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ 10 Highest Healthcare Dividend Stocks   [Aug-18-16 04:21PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ QVC, Realogy Top Fridays 52-Week Low Club   [04:04PM  at 24/7 Wall St.]
Stock chart of CPSI Financial statements of CPSI Annual reports of CPSI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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