Intrinsic value of Crawford Cl B - CRD-B

Previous Close

$12.05

  Intrinsic Value

$0.30

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-97%

  Value-price divergence*

-81%

Previous close

$12.05

 
Intrinsic value

$0.30

 
Up/down potential

-97%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-81%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CRD-B stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -5.15
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,178
  1,202
  1,229
  1,261
  1,296
  1,336
  1,379
  1,426
  1,476
  1,531
  1,590
  1,653
  1,720
  1,791
  1,867
  1,948
  2,033
  2,124
  2,219
  2,320
  2,427
  2,539
  2,658
  2,783
  2,914
  3,053
  3,199
  3,353
  3,515
  3,685
  3,864
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,224
  1,252
  1,284
  1,320
  1,360
  1,403
  1,451
  1,502
  1,558
  1,617
  1,671
  1,739
  1,811
  1,888
  1,970
  2,056
  2,147
  2,244
  2,346
  2,454
  2,568
  2,687
  2,814
  2,947
  3,087
  3,235
  3,391
  3,554
  3,726
  3,907
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,105
  1,224
  1,252
  1,284
  1,320
  1,360
  1,403
  1,451
  1,502
  1,558
  1,617
  1,671
  1,739
  1,811
  1,888
  1,970
  2,056
  2,147
  2,244
  2,346
  2,454
  2,568
  2,687
  2,814
  2,947
  3,087
  3,235
  3,391
  3,554
  3,726
  3,907
Operating income, $m
  72
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
EBITDA, $m
  113
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
Interest expense (income), $m
  8
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
Earnings before tax, $m
  63
  -30
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
Tax expense, $m
  25
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  36
  -30
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  82
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  736
  667
  683
  700
  720
  742
  766
  792
  820
  850
  883
  918
  955
  995
  1,037
  1,082
  1,129
  1,179
  1,232
  1,288
  1,347
  1,410
  1,476
  1,545
  1,618
  1,695
  1,776
  1,862
  1,952
  2,046
  2,146
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  654
  667
  683
  700
  720
  742
  766
  792
  820
  850
  883
  918
  955
  995
  1,037
  1,082
  1,129
  1,179
  1,232
  1,288
  1,347
  1,410
  1,476
  1,545
  1,618
  1,695
  1,776
  1,862
  1,952
  2,046
  2,146
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.801
  1.802
  1.799
  1.801
  1.800
  1.801
  1.800
  1.801
  1.800
  1.801
  1.801
  1.801
  1.801
  1.800
  1.800
  1.800
  1.801
  1.802
  1.801
  1.801
  1.802
  1.801
  1.801
  1.801
  1.801
  1.801
  1.801
  1.801
  1.801
  1.801
  1.801
Average production assets, $m
  210
  214
  219
  224
  231
  238
  245
  254
  263
  273
  283
  294
  306
  319
  332
  347
  362
  378
  395
  413
  432
  452
  473
  495
  519
  543
  569
  597
  626
  656
  688
Working capital, $m
  135
  55
  57
  58
  60
  61
  63
  66
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  162
  170
  178
Total debt, $m
  188
  198
  212
  228
  245
  265
  286
  309
  334
  361
  390
  421
  454
  489
  527
  566
  608
  653
  700
  750
  802
  858
  916
  978
  1,043
  1,111
  1,183
  1,259
  1,339
  1,423
  1,511
Total liabilities, $m
  582
  592
  606
  622
  639
  659
  680
  703
  728
  755
  784
  815
  848
  883
  921
  960
  1,002
  1,047
  1,094
  1,144
  1,196
  1,252
  1,310
  1,372
  1,437
  1,505
  1,577
  1,653
  1,733
  1,817
  1,905
Total equity, $m
  154
  75
  76
  78
  81
  83
  86
  89
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  209
  219
  229
  240
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  736
  667
  682
  700
  720
  742
  766
  792
  820
  850
  883
  918
  955
  994
  1,037
  1,081
  1,128
  1,179
  1,232
  1,288
  1,347
  1,410
  1,475
  1,545
  1,618
  1,695
  1,776
  1,862
  1,952
  2,046
  2,145
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.221
  2.660
  2.770
  2.900
  3.040
  3.180
  3.330
  3.480
  3.640
  3.790
  3.940
  4.100
  4.240
  4.390
  4.540
  4.680
  4.810
  4.940
  5.070
  5.200
  5.320
  5.430
  5.540
  5.650
  5.750
  5.850
  5.950
  6.040
  6.130
  6.210
  6.290
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.110
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  36
  -30
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  41
  38
  39
  40
  40
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  47
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
Funds from operations, $m
  102
  9
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  7
  7
  7
  7
  6
  6
  6
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
Cash from operations, $m
  99
  7
  7
  7
  7
  6
  6
  6
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
New CAPEX, $m
  -29
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -33
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
Free cash flow, $m
  66
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -132
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -39
  11
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  55
  58
  62
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -41
  42
  46
  49
  51
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  73
  68
  72
  76
  81
  86
  91
  97
  102
  108
  115
  120
  127
  135
  142
  149
  158
  167
  176
  185
  195
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  20
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  57
  60
  64
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -40
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -107
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  81
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  68
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  65
  -12
  -11
  -10
  -10
  -9
  -9
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  90.3
  81.5
  73.5
  66.3
  59.6
  53.6
  48.2
  43.3
  38.8
  34.8
  31.8
  29.0
  26.5
  24.1
  21.9
  19.9
  18.0
  16.3
  14.8
  13.3
  12.0
  10.8
  9.8
  8.8
  7.9
  7.1
  6.4
  5.7
  5.1
  4.6

Crawford & Company (Crawford) is an independent provider of claims management solutions to insurance and self-insured entities. The Company's Crawford Solution offers claims services, business process outsourcing and consulting services for various product lines, including property and casualty claims management; workers' compensation claims and medical management, and legal settlement administration. Crawford conducts its operations through four segments: U.S. Services, which primarily serves the property and casualty insurance company markets in the United States; International, which serves the property and casualty insurance company, and self-insurance markets outside the United States; Broadspire, which serves the self-insurance marketplace, primarily in the United States, and Garden City Group, which serves the class action, regulatory, mass tort, bankruptcy and other legal settlement markets, primarily in the United States.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Crawford Cl B (CRD-B)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18.7
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 4.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 9.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -12.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 82
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 121.4%
Total Debt to Equity 122.1%
Interest Coverage 9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Return On Total Capital 10.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Return On Equity 26.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Asset Turnover 1.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 27.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.4%
EBITDA Margin 9.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Operating Margin 6.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Net Profit Margin 3.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Effective Tax Rate 39.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
Payout Ratio 38.9%

CRD-B stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CRD-B stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1178 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Crawford Cl B. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Crawford Cl B. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CRD-B stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CRD-B is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Crawford Cl B, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Crawford Cl B.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CRD-B stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 101.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CRD-B stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.7% for Crawford Cl B.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Crawford Cl B. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CRD-B stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CRD-B are equal to 17.8%.

Life of production assets of 7.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Crawford Cl B operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CRD-B is equal to 4.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $154 million for Crawford Cl B - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 50.949 million for Crawford Cl B is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Crawford Cl B at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Crawford & Co. : October 13, 2017   [Oct-13-17 10:39AM  Capital Cube]
▶ The Crawford 360° Claims Evolution   [Sep-25-17 06:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Crawford & Co. : September 22, 2017   [Sep-22-17 11:07AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Crawford posts 2Q profit   [Aug-09-17 10:22PM  Associated Press]
▶ Rahul Patel Joins Crawford & Company® Board of Directors   [Aug-02-17 05:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Crawford & Company® Announces Earnings Conference Call   [Jul-26-17 06:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Benedict Burke awarded Insurance Personality of the Year   [Jul-07-17 09:40AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Crawford & Company® Announces Leadership Change   [May-26-17 05:04PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Crawford & Co. : May 11, 2017   [May-11-17 04:24PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Crawford posts 1Q profit   [May-08-17 08:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Crawford & Company® Announces Earnings Conference Call   [Apr-25-17 06:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Crawford posts 4Q profit   [07:51AM  Associated Press]
▶ Crawford & Co. acquires majority interest in WeGoLook for $36M   [Dec-07-16 08:20AM  at bizjournals.com]
Financial statements of CRD-B
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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