Intrinsic value of Ceragon Networks - CRNT

Previous Close

$2.09

  Intrinsic Value

$0.52

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-75%

  Value-price divergence*

+63%

Previous close

$2.09

 
Intrinsic value

$0.52

 
Up/down potential

-75%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+63%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CRNT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -15.76
  26.70
  24.53
  22.58
  20.82
  19.24
  17.81
  16.53
  15.38
  14.34
  13.41
  12.57
  11.81
  11.13
  10.52
  9.96
  9.47
  9.02
  8.62
  8.26
  7.93
  7.64
  7.37
  7.14
  6.92
  6.73
  6.56
  6.40
  6.26
  6.14
  6.02
Revenue, $m
  294
  372
  464
  569
  687
  819
  965
  1,125
  1,298
  1,484
  1,683
  1,894
  2,118
  2,353
  2,601
  2,860
  3,131
  3,413
  3,707
  4,013
  4,332
  4,663
  5,006
  5,364
  5,735
  6,121
  6,523
  6,940
  7,375
  7,827
  8,299
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  356
  443
  544
  657
  783
  923
  1,075
  1,240
  1,418
  1,609
  1,811
  2,024
  2,250
  2,486
  2,734
  2,993
  3,263
  3,544
  3,837
  4,141
  4,457
  4,786
  5,128
  5,483
  5,852
  6,236
  6,635
  7,050
  7,483
  7,933
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  276
  356
  443
  544
  657
  783
  923
  1,075
  1,240
  1,418
  1,609
  1,811
  2,024
  2,250
  2,486
  2,734
  2,993
  3,263
  3,544
  3,837
  4,141
  4,457
  4,786
  5,128
  5,483
  5,852
  6,236
  6,635
  7,050
  7,483
  7,933
Operating income, $m
  18
  16
  20
  25
  30
  36
  42
  49
  57
  65
  74
  83
  93
  104
  114
  126
  138
  150
  163
  177
  191
  205
  220
  236
  252
  269
  287
  305
  324
  344
  365
EBITDA, $m
  28
  20
  25
  31
  37
  45
  52
  61
  71
  81
  92
  103
  115
  128
  141
  156
  170
  186
  202
  218
  236
  254
  272
  292
  312
  333
  355
  378
  401
  426
  451
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  0
  2
  5
  8
  11
  15
  20
  24
  29
  35
  40
  47
  53
  60
  67
  75
  83
  91
  99
  108
  118
  127
  137
  148
  158
  170
  181
  193
  206
  219
Earnings before tax, $m
  13
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  43
  47
  50
  55
  59
  63
  68
  72
  77
  82
  88
  93
  99
  105
  111
  117
  124
  131
  138
  146
Tax expense, $m
  2
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
Net income, $m
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  53
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  36
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  244
  264
  328
  402
  486
  580
  683
  796
  918
  1,050
  1,191
  1,340
  1,499
  1,665
  1,841
  2,024
  2,216
  2,416
  2,624
  2,840
  3,066
  3,300
  3,543
  3,796
  4,059
  4,332
  4,616
  4,912
  5,219
  5,539
  5,873
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  208
  264
  328
  402
  486
  580
  683
  796
  918
  1,050
  1,191
  1,340
  1,499
  1,665
  1,841
  2,024
  2,216
  2,416
  2,624
  2,840
  3,066
  3,300
  3,543
  3,796
  4,059
  4,332
  4,616
  4,912
  5,219
  5,539
  5,873
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.413
  1.409
  1.415
  1.415
  1.414
  1.412
  1.413
  1.413
  1.414
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
Average production assets, $m
  31
  39
  48
  59
  71
  85
  100
  117
  135
  154
  175
  197
  220
  245
  270
  297
  326
  355
  386
  417
  451
  485
  521
  558
  596
  637
  678
  722
  767
  814
  863
Working capital, $m
  95
  96
  120
  147
  178
  212
  250
  291
  336
  384
  436
  491
  548
  610
  674
  741
  811
  884
  960
  1,039
  1,122
  1,208
  1,297
  1,389
  1,485
  1,585
  1,689
  1,797
  1,910
  2,027
  2,149
Total debt, $m
  17
  30
  64
  104
  149
  199
  254
  314
  379
  450
  525
  605
  689
  778
  872
  970
  1,072
  1,179
  1,290
  1,406
  1,526
  1,651
  1,781
  1,916
  2,056
  2,202
  2,354
  2,512
  2,676
  2,847
  3,025
Total liabilities, $m
  128
  141
  175
  215
  260
  310
  365
  425
  490
  561
  636
  716
  800
  889
  983
  1,081
  1,183
  1,290
  1,401
  1,517
  1,637
  1,762
  1,892
  2,027
  2,167
  2,313
  2,465
  2,623
  2,787
  2,958
  3,136
Total equity, $m
  116
  123
  153
  188
  227
  270
  318
  371
  428
  489
  555
  625
  698
  776
  858
  943
  1,032
  1,126
  1,223
  1,324
  1,429
  1,538
  1,651
  1,769
  1,891
  2,019
  2,151
  2,289
  2,432
  2,581
  2,737
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  244
  264
  328
  403
  487
  580
  683
  796
  918
  1,050
  1,191
  1,341
  1,498
  1,665
  1,841
  2,024
  2,215
  2,416
  2,624
  2,841
  3,066
  3,300
  3,543
  3,796
  4,058
  4,332
  4,616
  4,912
  5,219
  5,539
  5,873
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.147
  0.240
  0.420
  0.550
  0.660
  0.740
  0.800
  0.850
  0.890
  0.920
  0.950
  0.970
  0.990
  1.000
  1.020
  1.030
  1.040
  1.050
  1.060
  1.060
  1.070
  1.070
  1.080
  1.080
  1.090
  1.090
  1.090
  1.100
  1.100
  1.100
  1.110
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.385
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  53
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  10
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  24
  27
  30
  33
  35
  39
  42
  45
  48
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
Funds from operations, $m
  38
  16
  18
  21
  23
  26
  30
  34
  38
  42
  46
  51
  56
  61
  67
  73
  79
  85
  91
  98
  105
  112
  120
  128
  136
  145
  154
  163
  172
  182
  193
Change in working capital, $m
  12
  20
  24
  27
  31
  34
  38
  41
  45
  48
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  117
  122
Cash from operations, $m
  26
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -2
  0
  3
  5
  8
  12
  15
  19
  23
  27
  31
  35
  40
  45
  50
  55
  60
  65
  71
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -81
New CAPEX, $m
  -8
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -8
  -11
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -36
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -130
Free cash flow, $m
  18
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -49
  -50
  -51
  -52
  -52
  -53
  -53
  -54
  -54
  -55
  -56
  -57
  -58
  -59
  -60
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -18
  30
  35
  40
  45
  50
  55
  60
  65
  70
  75
  80
  85
  89
  94
  98
  102
  107
  111
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  158
  164
  171
  178
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  14
  17
  20
  23
  26
  28
  31
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  42
  43
  43
  44
  44
  45
  45
  45
  45
  46
  46
  46
  47
  47
  48
  48
  49
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -18
  44
  52
  60
  68
  76
  83
  91
  98
  105
  112
  118
  125
  130
  136
  141
  145
  151
  155
  161
  165
  170
  175
  181
  186
  192
  199
  205
  212
  219
  227
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  28
  32
  37
  42
  47
  52
  57
  61
  66
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  148
  154
  161
  167
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -13
  -26
  -30
  -35
  -39
  -44
  -48
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -138
  -143
  -149
  -155
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  19
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  21
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  20
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  90.8
  82.7
  75.8
  69.7
  64.6
  60.1
  56.3
  52.9
  50.0
  47.5
  45.3
  43.3
  41.6
  40.1
  38.7
  37.5
  36.4
  35.4
  34.5
  33.7
  33.0
  32.3
  31.7
  31.1
  30.6
  30.1
  29.6
  29.2
  28.8
  28.4

Ceragon Networks Ltd. provides wireless backhaul solutions that enable cellular operators and other wireless service providers to deliver voice, data, and multimedia services worldwide. Its wireless backhaul solutions use microwave technology to transfer telecommunication traffic between base stations, small sells, and the core of the service provider’s network. The company also provides wireless fronthaul solutions that use microwave technology for communication between LTE/LTE-advanced base band digital unit stations and remote radio heads. In addition, it offers IP-20 Platform solutions for various short-haul and long-haul applications, including FibeAir IP-20G and IP-20GX, FibeAir IP-20N/IP-20A, FibeAir IP-20C, FibeAir IP-20S, FibeAir IP-20E, FibeAir IP-20C HP, FibeAir IP-20LH, Evolution IP-20 LH, and PointLink. Further, the company provides network management system for managing large scale wireless back haul networks; and network and radio planning, site survey, solutions development, network rollout, maintenance, training, and other services. Ceragon Networks Ltd. provides its services to smart-phone applications, such as Internet browsing, social networking, image sharing, music, and video applications; oil and gas companies; public safety network operators; business and public institutions; broadcasters; energy utilities; and private communications networks. The company sells its products through direct sales, original equipment manufacturers, resellers, distributors, and system integrators. The company was formerly known as Giganet Ltd. and changed its name to Ceragon Networks Ltd. in September 2000. Ceragon Networks Ltd. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Tel Aviv, Israel.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ceragon Networks (CRNT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 14.8
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -15.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 60%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 14.7%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.9%
Return On Total Capital 8.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.6%
Return On Equity 10%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.4%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 33.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.6%
EBITDA Margin 8.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Operating Margin 6.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.1%
Net Profit Margin 3.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.5%
Effective Tax Rate 15.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

CRNT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CRNT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $294 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ceragon Networks. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ceragon Networks. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CRNT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 26.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CRNT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ceragon Networks, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ceragon Networks.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CRNT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CRNT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.7% for Ceragon Networks.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ceragon Networks. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CRNT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CRNT are equal to 10.4%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ceragon Networks operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CRNT is equal to 25.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $116 million for Ceragon Networks - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 78.364 million for Ceragon Networks is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ceragon Networks at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Ceragon posts 2Q profit   [Aug-07-17 11:55PM  Associated Press]
▶ How Ceragon Networks Ltd. Fell 11.7% in May   [Jun-07-17 10:00AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Ceragon posts 1Q loss   [07:46AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ceragon Networks Ltd. : May 1, 2017   [May-01-17 03:49PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Why Ceragon Networks Ltd. Stock Fell 11% in March   [Apr-10-17 07:24PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Ceragon Networks Announces Filing of Shelf Registration   [Apr-07-17 11:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 5 of the Best Stocks Under $10 for 2017   [Mar-02-17 01:42PM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for February 23rd   [Feb-23-17 07:04AM  Zacks]
▶ Ceragon posts 4Q profit   [07:26AM  Associated Press]
▶ Ceragon posts 2Q profit   [07:17AM  AP]
▶ Ceragon posts 1Q profit   [07:17AM  AP]
Stock chart of CRNT Financial statements of CRNT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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