Intrinsic value of CARBO Ceramics - CRR

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$6.87

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CRR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -63.21
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  103
  105
  107
  110
  113
  117
  121
  125
  129
  134
  139
  145
  150
  157
  163
  170
  178
  186
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
  243
  255
  267
  280
  293
  307
  322
  338
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  128
  130
  134
  138
  142
  146
  151
  157
  162
  169
  175
  182
  190
  198
  206
  215
  225
  235
  245
  257
  269
  281
  294
  308
  323
  339
  355
  372
  390
  409
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  110
  112
  115
  118
  121
  124
  127
  130
  134
  137
  140
  144
  148
  151
  155
  159
  163
  167
  171
  175
  180
  184
  189
  194
  198
  203
  208
  214
  219
  224
Total operating expenses, $m
  229
  238
  242
  249
  256
  263
  270
  278
  287
  296
  306
  315
  326
  338
  349
  361
  374
  388
  402
  416
  432
  449
  465
  483
  502
  521
  542
  563
  586
  609
  633
Operating income, $m
  -126
  -132
  -135
  -139
  -142
  -146
  -150
  -154
  -158
  -162
  -167
  -171
  -176
  -180
  -185
  -191
  -196
  -202
  -208
  -214
  -220
  -226
  -233
  -240
  -247
  -254
  -262
  -270
  -278
  -287
  -295
EBITDA, $m
  -78
  -78
  -80
  -82
  -84
  -86
  -87
  -89
  -91
  -93
  -95
  -96
  -98
  -100
  -102
  -103
  -105
  -106
  -108
  -109
  -111
  -112
  -113
  -115
  -116
  -117
  -118
  -119
  -120
  -121
  -122
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
Earnings before tax, $m
  -131
  -135
  -138
  -141
  -145
  -149
  -153
  -157
  -161
  -165
  -170
  -174
  -179
  -184
  -190
  -195
  -201
  -207
  -213
  -219
  -226
  -232
  -239
  -247
  -254
  -262
  -270
  -278
  -287
  -296
  -305
Tax expense, $m
  -51
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -80
  -135
  -138
  -141
  -145
  -149
  -153
  -157
  -161
  -165
  -170
  -174
  -179
  -184
  -190
  -195
  -201
  -207
  -213
  -219
  -226
  -232
  -239
  -247
  -254
  -262
  -270
  -278
  -287
  -296
  -305

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  92
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  723
  645
  659
  676
  695
  716
  740
  765
  792
  821
  853
  887
  923
  961
  1,002
  1,045
  1,091
  1,139
  1,190
  1,245
  1,302
  1,362
  1,426
  1,493
  1,563
  1,638
  1,716
  1,799
  1,885
  1,977
  2,073
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  631
  645
  659
  676
  695
  716
  740
  765
  792
  821
  853
  887
  923
  961
  1,002
  1,045
  1,091
  1,139
  1,190
  1,245
  1,302
  1,362
  1,426
  1,493
  1,563
  1,638
  1,716
  1,799
  1,885
  1,977
  2,073
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.163
  0.163
  0.162
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.164
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
Average production assets, $m
  520
  281
  287
  295
  303
  312
  322
  333
  345
  358
  372
  387
  402
  419
  437
  456
  476
  497
  519
  543
  568
  594
  622
  651
  682
  714
  748
  784
  822
  862
  904
Working capital, $m
  182
  53
  54
  55
  57
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  127
  133
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
Total debt, $m
  81
  69
  71
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  110
  115
  121
  128
  134
  141
  149
  157
  165
  174
  184
  193
  204
  215
  226
  238
  251
  265
  279
Total liabilities, $m
  107
  95
  97
  99
  102
  105
  109
  112
  116
  121
  125
  130
  136
  141
  147
  154
  160
  167
  175
  183
  191
  200
  210
  219
  230
  241
  252
  264
  277
  291
  305
Total equity, $m
  617
  550
  562
  577
  593
  611
  631
  652
  676
  701
  728
  756
  787
  820
  854
  891
  930
  972
  1,015
  1,062
  1,110
  1,162
  1,216
  1,273
  1,334
  1,397
  1,464
  1,534
  1,608
  1,686
  1,768
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  724
  645
  659
  676
  695
  716
  740
  764
  792
  822
  853
  886
  923
  961
  1,001
  1,045
  1,090
  1,139
  1,190
  1,245
  1,301
  1,362
  1,426
  1,492
  1,564
  1,638
  1,716
  1,798
  1,885
  1,977
  2,073
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.131
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.834
  0.853
  0.853
  0.853
  0.853
  0.853
  0.853
  0.853
  0.853
  0.853
  0.853
  0.853
  0.853
  0.853
  0.853
  0.853
  0.853
  0.853
  0.853
  0.853
  0.853
  0.853
  0.853
  0.853
  0.853
  0.853
  0.853
  0.853
  0.853
  0.853
  0.853

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -80
  -135
  -138
  -141
  -145
  -149
  -153
  -157
  -161
  -165
  -170
  -174
  -179
  -184
  -190
  -195
  -201
  -207
  -213
  -219
  -226
  -232
  -239
  -247
  -254
  -262
  -270
  -278
  -287
  -296
  -305
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  48
  54
  56
  57
  59
  60
  62
  65
  67
  69
  72
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  91
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  120
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
Funds from operations, $m
  45
  -80
  -82
  -84
  -86
  -88
  -90
  -92
  -94
  -96
  -98
  -100
  -102
  -104
  -106
  -108
  -109
  -111
  -113
  -115
  -116
  -118
  -120
  -121
  -123
  -124
  -126
  -127
  -129
  -130
  -131
Change in working capital, $m
  63
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
Cash from operations, $m
  -18
  -348
  -83
  -86
  -88
  -90
  -92
  -94
  -96
  -99
  -101
  -103
  -105
  -107
  -109
  -111
  -113
  -115
  -117
  -119
  -121
  -123
  -125
  -127
  -129
  -131
  -132
  -134
  -136
  -137
  -139
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -53
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -7
  -59
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -208
Free cash flow, $m
  -25
  -406
  -144
  -148
  -153
  -157
  -162
  -167
  -172
  -178
  -183
  -189
  -195
  -201
  -207
  -214
  -221
  -228
  -235
  -243
  -250
  -258
  -267
  -276
  -285
  -294
  -304
  -314
  -324
  -335
  -347
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -8
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  337
  154
  160
  166
  172
  179
  185
  192
  198
  206
  213
  220
  228
  236
  244
  253
  262
  271
  281
  291
  301
  312
  323
  335
  347
  359
  372
  386
  400
  414
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  37
  339
  156
  162
  169
  175
  182
  189
  196
  202
  211
  218
  225
  234
  242
  250
  260
  269
  279
  289
  299
  310
  321
  333
  345
  358
  371
  384
  399
  413
  428
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  13
  -404
  -142
  -146
  -150
  -154
  -159
  -164
  -168
  -173
  -179
  -184
  -190
  -195
  -201
  -208
  -214
  -221
  -227
  -235
  -242
  -250
  -258
  -266
  -274
  -283
  -292
  -302
  -312
  -322
  -332
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  25
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  79
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  52.8
  37.7
  26.8
  19.0
  13.4
  9.4
  6.7
  4.7
  3.3
  2.3
  1.6
  1.2
  0.8
  0.6
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

CARBO Ceramics Inc., an oilfield services technology company, manufactures and sells ceramic proppants, resin-coated ceramic, and resin-coated sand proppants for use in the hydraulic fracturing of natural gas and oil wells in the United States and internationally. The company offers ceramic proppants, including CARBOHSP and CARBOPROP designed for use in deep oil and gas wells; CARBOLITE used in medium depth oil and gas wells; CARBOECONOPROP, a low-density ceramic proppant; CARBOHYDROPROP to enhance performance in slickwater fracture treatments; and CARBOBOND LITE, a resin-coated ceramic for oil and natural gas wells that are subject to the risk of proppant flow-back. Its ceramic proppants also comprise CARBO NORTHERN WHITE, a frac sand that is used by operators that value quality; CARBONRT, a detectable proppant used to assist operators in determining the locations of fractures in natural gas and oil wells; KRYPTOSPHERE HD, a ceramic proppant engineered to deliver increased conductivity and durability in the highest closure stress wells; and SCALEGUARD, a porous ceramic proppant that is infused with scale-inhibiting chemicals and placed throughout the fracture as part of the hydraulic fracturing process. The company also provides fracture simulation software under the FracPro brand, as well as offers hydraulic fracture design and consulting services under the StrataGen brand. In addition, it provides for spill prevention, containment, and countermeasure systems for the oil and gas industry. The company principally sells its products and services to operators of oil and natural gas wells, and oilfield service companies. CARBO Ceramics Inc. was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CARBO Ceramics (CRR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2.3
Price to Sales 1.8
Price to Book 0.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -10.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -7.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -63.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -88.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -41.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 7
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 10.9%
Total Debt to Equity 13.1%
Interest Coverage -25
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -9.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.3%
Return On Total Capital -11.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.1%
Return On Equity -12.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -7%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin -82.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -24.9%
EBITDA Margin -75.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -30.6%
Operating Margin -122.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -55.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -127.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -57.1%
Net Profit Margin -77.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -36.1%
Effective Tax Rate 38.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

CRR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CRR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $103 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CARBO Ceramics. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of CARBO Ceramics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CRR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CRR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CARBO Ceramics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CARBO Ceramics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CRR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 121.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $107 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CRR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.6% for CARBO Ceramics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CARBO Ceramics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CRR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CRR are equal to 267.5%.

Life of production assets of 5.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CARBO Ceramics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CRR is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $617 million for CARBO Ceramics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 25.305 million for CARBO Ceramics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CARBO Ceramics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.


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Stock chart of CRR Financial statements of CRR Annual reports of CRR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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