Intrinsic value of Corvel - CRVL

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$44.00

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$44.00

 
Intrinsic value

$28.58

 
Up/down potential

-35%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CRVL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.23
  3.20
  3.38
  3.54
  3.69
  3.82
  3.94
  4.04
  4.14
  4.23
  4.30
  4.37
  4.44
  4.49
  4.54
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.88
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
Revenue, $m
  504
  520
  538
  557
  577
  599
  623
  648
  675
  703
  734
  766
  800
  836
  874
  914
  956
  1,001
  1,048
  1,097
  1,149
  1,204
  1,262
  1,323
  1,387
  1,455
  1,525
  1,600
  1,678
  1,761
  1,847
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  472
  487
  505
  523
  543
  564
  587
  611
  637
  664
  689
  720
  752
  786
  822
  860
  900
  943
  987
  1,034
  1,084
  1,136
  1,190
  1,248
  1,309
  1,372
  1,439
  1,510
  1,584
  1,662
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  458
  472
  487
  505
  523
  543
  564
  587
  611
  637
  664
  689
  720
  752
  786
  822
  860
  900
  943
  987
  1,034
  1,084
  1,136
  1,190
  1,248
  1,309
  1,372
  1,439
  1,510
  1,584
  1,662
Operating income, $m
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  161
  168
  177
  185
EBITDA, $m
  66
  64
  67
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  180
  189
  198
  208
  218
  229
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
Earnings before tax, $m
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  75
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  141
  147
  154
  162
  169
  178
Tax expense, $m
  17
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
Net income, $m
  29
  35
  37
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  55
  57
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  107
  113
  118
  124
  130

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  33
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  220
  193
  200
  207
  214
  222
  231
  240
  250
  261
  272
  284
  297
  310
  324
  339
  355
  371
  389
  407
  427
  447
  468
  491
  515
  540
  566
  594
  623
  653
  685
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  187
  193
  200
  207
  214
  222
  231
  240
  250
  261
  272
  284
  297
  310
  324
  339
  355
  371
  389
  407
  427
  447
  468
  491
  515
  540
  566
  594
  623
  653
  685
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.695
  2.694
  2.690
  2.691
  2.696
  2.698
  2.697
  2.700
  2.700
  2.693
  2.699
  2.697
  2.694
  2.697
  2.698
  2.696
  2.693
  2.698
  2.694
  2.695
  2.691
  2.694
  2.697
  2.695
  2.693
  2.694
  2.694
  2.694
  2.693
  2.697
  2.696
Average production assets, $m
  59
  61
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  128
  134
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  187
  196
  206
  216
Working capital, $m
  43
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
Total debt, $m
  0
  3
  6
  9
  13
  17
  21
  25
  30
  35
  40
  46
  52
  58
  65
  72
  79
  87
  95
  104
  113
  122
  133
  143
  154
  166
  179
  192
  205
  220
  235
Total liabilities, $m
  88
  91
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  113
  118
  123
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
  160
  167
  175
  183
  192
  201
  210
  221
  231
  242
  254
  267
  280
  293
  308
  323
Total equity, $m
  132
  102
  106
  109
  113
  118
  122
  127
  132
  138
  144
  150
  157
  164
  171
  179
  188
  196
  206
  215
  226
  236
  248
  260
  272
  286
  299
  314
  329
  346
  363
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  220
  193
  200
  206
  214
  223
  231
  240
  250
  261
  272
  284
  297
  310
  324
  339
  355
  371
  389
  407
  427
  446
  469
  491
  514
  540
  566
  594
  622
  654
  686
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.030
  0.060
  0.090
  0.110
  0.140
  0.170
  0.200
  0.230
  0.250
  0.280
  0.300
  0.330
  0.350
  0.380
  0.400
  0.420
  0.440
  0.460
  0.480
  0.500
  0.520
  0.540
  0.550
  0.570
  0.580
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.640
  0.650
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  29
  35
  37
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  55
  57
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  107
  113
  118
  124
  130
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  20
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
Funds from operations, $m
  52
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  114
  119
  124
  130
  137
  143
  150
  157
  165
  173
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
Cash from operations, $m
  51
  49
  53
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  70
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
New CAPEX, $m
  -17
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -17
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -46
  -49
  -51
Free cash flow, $m
  34
  35
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  50
  51
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -27
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -27
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  7
  38
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  49
  51
  54
  56
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  33
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  68
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
  107
  113
  118
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  65
  35
  34
  33
  32
  31
  30
  29
  28
  26
  24
  23
  21
  19
  18
  16
  14
  13
  11
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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CorVel Corporation provides medical cost containment and managed care services to address the medical costs of workersÂ’ compensation and auto claims. The company offers network solutions, including automated medical fee auditing, preferred provider services, retrospective utilization review, independent medical examinations, and inpatient bill review services; directed care networks for CT and bone scans, diagnostic imaging, physical and occupational therapy, independent medical evaluations, durable medical equipment, and transportation and translation services; pharmacy and clearinghouse services; and medicare solutions. It also provides a range of patient management services comprising claims management, case management, 24/7 nurse triage, utilization management, vocational rehabilitation, life care planning, disability management, liability claims management, and auto claims management services. It serves insurers, third party administrators, self-administered employers, government agencies, municipalities, state funds, and various other industries. CorVel Corporation was founded in 1987 and is based in Irvine, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Corvel (CRVL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 29.7
Price to Sales 1.7
Price to Book 6.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 25.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -26.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 13.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.7%
Return On Total Capital 22.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.5%
Return On Equity 22.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.5%
Asset Turnover 2.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 20.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.2%
EBITDA Margin 13.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.8%
Operating Margin 9.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Net Profit Margin 5.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Effective Tax Rate 37%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

CRVL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CRVL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $504 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Corvel. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Corvel. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CRVL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CRVL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Corvel, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Corvel.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CRVL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CRVL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Corvel.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Corvel. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CRVL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CRVL are equal to 11.7%.

Life of production assets of 4.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Corvel operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CRVL is equal to 2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $132 million for Corvel - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 19.239 million for Corvel is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Corvel at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ CorVel Announces Expansion of Stock Repurchase Program   [Feb-07-17 05:06PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CorVel Announces Revenues and Earnings   [06:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CorVel Announces Quarterly Earnings Release Webcast   [Jan-17-17 05:20PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is CorVel Corporation (CRVL) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-10-16 09:34PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ CorVel Announces Revenues and Earnings   [06:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CorVel Announces Quarterly Earnings Release Webcast   [Oct-20-16 05:27PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CorVel Announces Revenues and Earnings   [06:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CorVel Announces Earnings Release Webcast   [Jul-26-16 03:37PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CorVel Announces Revenues and Earnings   [06:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CorVel Announces Fiscal Earnings Release Webcast   [May-18-16 03:33PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CorVel Announces Revenues and Earnings   [06:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CorVel Announces Quarterly Earnings Release Webcast   [Jan-19-16 06:56PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Crazy About Silver Spring Networks Inc (SSNI)   [Nov-26  10:56AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ CorVel Announces Expanded Stock Repurchase Plan   [Nov-12  07:03PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CorVel Announces Revenues and Earnings   [06:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CorVel Announces Quarterly Earnings Release Webcast   [Oct-16  07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CorVel Announces Telehealth Services   [Aug-26  08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 10-Q for CorVel Corp.   [Aug-09  08:13PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ CorVel Announces Revenues and Earnings   [06:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CorVel Announces Earnings Release Webcast   [Jul-20  07:16PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 10-K for CorVel Corp.   [Jun-13  08:09PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ CorVel Announces Revenues and Earnings   [06:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CorVel Announces Fiscal Earnings Release Webcast   [May-14  07:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 10-Q for CorVel Corp.   [Feb-07  07:07PM  Company Spotlight]
▶ CorVel Announces Revenues and Earnings   [06:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CorVel Announces Quarterly Earnings Release Webcast   [Jan-14  05:00PM  PR Newswire]
Stock chart of CRVL Financial statements of CRVL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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