Intrinsic value of CryoLife - CRY

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$18.25

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$18.25

 
Intrinsic value

$11.43

 
Up/down potential

-37%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CRY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  23.29
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.88
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.99
Revenue, $m
  180
  188
  197
  207
  217
  227
  238
  250
  262
  274
  288
  302
  317
  332
  349
  366
  384
  403
  423
  444
  466
  489
  513
  539
  565
  594
  623
  654
  687
  721
  757
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  147
  146
  153
  161
  169
  177
  186
  195
  205
  215
  226
  237
  249
  261
  274
  288
  302
  317
  333
  349
  367
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  68
  69
  71
  73
  75
  77
  78
  80
  82
  84
  87
  89
  91
  93
  96
  98
  100
  103
  106
  108
  111
  114
  116
  119
  122
  125
  129
  132
  135
  138
Total operating expenses, $m
  159
  167
  172
  179
  186
  193
  200
  207
  215
  223
  231
  233
  242
  252
  262
  273
  284
  295
  308
  321
  334
  348
  363
  377
  393
  410
  427
  446
  465
  484
  505
Operating income, $m
  22
  22
  25
  28
  31
  35
  38
  42
  47
  51
  56
  69
  74
  80
  86
  93
  100
  107
  115
  123
  132
  141
  151
  161
  172
  184
  196
  209
  222
  236
  252
EBITDA, $m
  30
  34
  37
  41
  44
  48
  52
  56
  61
  66
  71
  77
  82
  89
  95
  102
  110
  117
  126
  134
  144
  153
  164
  175
  186
  198
  211
  225
  239
  255
  271
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Earnings before tax, $m
  18
  18
  21
  23
  26
  30
  33
  37
  41
  45
  49
  62
  67
  72
  78
  84
  90
  97
  104
  112
  120
  128
  137
  147
  157
  168
  179
  191
  203
  217
  231
Tax expense, $m
  7
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  17
  18
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
Net income, $m
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  66
  71
  76
  82
  87
  94
  100
  107
  115
  122
  131
  139
  148
  158
  168

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  57
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  316
  271
  284
  298
  312
  327
  342
  359
  376
  395
  414
  434
  456
  478
  502
  526
  552
  580
  608
  638
  670
  703
  738
  775
  814
  854
  897
  941
  988
  1,037
  1,089
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  259
  271
  284
  298
  312
  327
  342
  359
  376
  395
  414
  434
  456
  478
  502
  526
  552
  580
  608
  638
  670
  703
  738
  775
  814
  854
  897
  941
  988
  1,037
  1,089
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.695
  0.694
  0.694
  0.695
  0.696
  0.694
  0.696
  0.696
  0.697
  0.694
  0.696
  0.696
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.696
  0.696
  0.695
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.695
  0.695
  0.694
  0.696
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
Average production assets, $m
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  159
  167
  175
  184
  193
  203
  213
  223
  234
  246
Working capital, $m
  117
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
  139
  145
  153
  160
  168
  176
  185
  194
  204
  214
  225
  236
  248
  260
  273
Total debt, $m
  72
  72
  77
  82
  88
  94
  100
  106
  113
  121
  128
  136
  145
  153
  163
  172
  183
  193
  205
  217
  229
  242
  256
  270
  286
  302
  318
  336
  354
  374
  394
Total liabilities, $m
  107
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  156
  163
  171
  180
  188
  198
  207
  218
  228
  240
  252
  264
  277
  291
  305
  321
  337
  353
  371
  389
  409
  429
Total equity, $m
  209
  164
  172
  180
  189
  198
  208
  218
  228
  239
  251
  263
  276
  290
  304
  319
  335
  351
  369
  387
  406
  426
  447
  470
  493
  518
  543
  570
  599
  629
  660
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  316
  271
  284
  297
  312
  327
  343
  359
  376
  395
  414
  434
  456
  478
  502
  526
  553
  579
  609
  639
  670
  703
  738
  775
  814
  855
  896
  941
  988
  1,038
  1,089
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.344
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.600
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.587
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  66
  71
  76
  82
  87
  94
  100
  107
  115
  122
  131
  139
  148
  158
  168
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
Funds from operations, $m
  20
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  53
  57
  61
  66
  70
  76
  81
  87
  93
  99
  106
  113
  121
  129
  137
  146
  156
  166
  176
  187
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
Cash from operations, $m
  20
  50
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  48
  51
  55
  60
  64
  69
  74
  79
  85
  91
  98
  104
  112
  119
  127
  136
  145
  154
  164
  175
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
New CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -74
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -18
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
Free cash flow, $m
  -54
  43
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  35
  36
  39
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  63
  68
  73
  78
  84
  90
  97
  104
  111
  119
  127
  136
  145
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  74
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  73
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  19
  48
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  34
  36
  39
  43
  44
  47
  51
  55
  60
  64
  69
  74
  80
  85
  91
  98
  105
  112
  120
  128
  136
  145
  155
  165
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -54
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  52
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  92
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  31
  32
  34
  38
  41
  45
  48
  52
  57
  61
  66
  71
  77
  83
  89
  95
  102
  109
  117
  125
  134
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  88
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  15
  15
  14
  14
  13
  12
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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CryoLife, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes medical devices worldwide. It also processes and distributes implantable human tissues for use in cardiac and vascular surgeries. The company operates in two segments, Medical Devices and Preservation Services. It offers surgical sealants and hemostats, including BioGlue Surgical Adhesive, an agent for cross-linking proteins for cardiac, vascular, pulmonary, and general surgical applications; BioFoam Surgical Matrix, which is used as an adjunct in sealing abdominal parenchymal tissues, as well as an adjunct for hemostasis in cardiovascular surgery; and PerClot, an absorbable powdered hemostat for use in surgical procedures, including cardiac, vascular, orthopedic, neurological, gynecological, ENT, and trauma surgeries. The company also provides cardiac laser therapy products, which include laser console system and single-use, as well as fiber-optic hand-pieces for the treatment of coronary artery disease in patients with severe angina; and On-X heart valves for aortic and mitral indications. In addition, it distributes ProCol vascular bioprosthesis, a biological graft that provides vascular access for end-stage renal disease in hemodialysis patients; and PhotoFix, a bovine pericardial patch for use in cardiac and vascular repairing activities. Further, it distributes CryoValve SG pulmonary heart valves and CryoPatch SG pulmonary cardiac patch tissues that are processed using its proprietary SynerGraft technology; and vascular preservation services, such as CryoVein and CryoArtery tissues to treat various vascular reconstructions, such as peripheral bypass, hemodialysis access, and aortic infections. The company serves physicians, hospitals, and other healthcare facilities, as well as cardiac, vascular, thoracic, and general surgeons. CryoLife, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Kennesaw, Georgia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CryoLife (CRY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 54.5
Price to Sales 3.3
Price to Book 2.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 30
Price to Free Cash Flow 42.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 23.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 11
Current Ratio 1
LT Debt to Equity 32.1%
Total Debt to Equity 34.4%
Interest Coverage 10
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Return On Total Capital 5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Equity 6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 66.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 63.7%
EBITDA Margin 15.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Operating Margin 11.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 10%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Net Profit Margin 6.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Effective Tax Rate 38.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

CRY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CRY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $180 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CryoLife. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of CryoLife. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CRY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CRY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CryoLife, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CryoLife.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CRY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 52.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $66 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CRY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.6% for CryoLife.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CryoLife. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CRY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CRY are equal to 32.5%.

Life of production assets of 12.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CryoLife operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CRY is equal to 36.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $209 million for CryoLife - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.806 million for CryoLife is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CryoLife at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to CryoLife, Inc. : May 22, 2017   [May-22-17 01:31PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CryoLife, Inc. : May 8, 2017   [May-08-17 04:21PM  Capital Cube]
▶ CryoLife, Inc. Value Analysis (NYSE:CRY) : April 28, 2017   [Apr-28-17 04:44PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Why CryoLife Inc. Jumped Higher   [01:20PM  Motley Fool]
▶ CryoLife posts 1Q profit   [Apr-26-17 07:18PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CryoLife, Inc. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 04:35PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Cryolife 4Q Revenues Missed Street Estimates   [Feb-17-17 02:15PM  Investopedia]
▶ CryoLife beats 4Q profit forecasts   [Feb-15-17 07:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CryoLife, Inc. : February 3, 2017   [Feb-03-17 10:35AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Is Cryolife Inc (CRY) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-04-16 10:41PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ James W. Bullock Joins CryoLife Board of Directors   [Oct-25-16 05:20PM  PR Newswire]
Stock chart of CRY Financial statements of CRY Annual reports of CRY
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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