Intrinsic value of CryoLife - CRY

Previous Close

$19.50

  Intrinsic Value

$7.97

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-59%

Previous close

$19.50

 
Intrinsic value

$7.97

 
Up/down potential

-59%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CRY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  23.29
  2.10
  2.39
  2.65
  2.89
  3.10
  3.29
  3.46
  3.61
  3.75
  3.88
  3.99
  4.09
  4.18
  4.26
  4.34
  4.40
  4.46
  4.52
  4.56
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  180
  184
  188
  193
  199
  205
  212
  219
  227
  235
  244
  254
  265
  276
  287
  300
  313
  327
  342
  357
  374
  391
  410
  429
  449
  471
  493
  517
  542
  568
  596
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  97
  99
  101
  104
  107
  110
  114
  118
  122
  126
  123
  128
  134
  139
  145
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  190
  199
  208
  218
  228
  239
  251
  263
  275
  289
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  68
  69
  71
  73
  75
  77
  78
  80
  82
  84
  87
  89
  91
  93
  96
  98
  100
  103
  106
  108
  111
  114
  116
  119
  122
  125
  129
  132
  135
  138
Total operating expenses, $m
  159
  165
  168
  172
  177
  182
  187
  192
  198
  204
  210
  210
  217
  225
  232
  241
  250
  259
  269
  279
  289
  301
  313
  324
  337
  350
  364
  380
  395
  410
  427
Operating income, $m
  22
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  44
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  68
  73
  79
  85
  91
  97
  105
  112
  120
  129
  138
  148
  158
  169
EBITDA, $m
  30
  32
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  58
  62
  67
  71
  76
  82
  88
  94
  101
  108
  115
  123
  132
  141
  151
  161
  172
  184
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
Earnings before tax, $m
  18
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  39
  42
  45
  48
  52
  56
  60
  65
  70
  75
  81
  87
  94
  101
  108
  116
  124
  133
  143
  153
Tax expense, $m
  7
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  38
  41
Net income, $m
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  21
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  55
  59
  64
  68
  73
  79
  85
  91
  97
  104
  111

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  57
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  316
  264
  271
  278
  286
  295
  304
  315
  326
  339
  352
  366
  381
  397
  414
  432
  451
  471
  492
  514
  538
  563
  589
  617
  647
  677
  710
  744
  780
  818
  857
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  259
  264
  271
  278
  286
  295
  304
  315
  326
  339
  352
  366
  381
  397
  414
  432
  451
  471
  492
  514
  538
  563
  589
  617
  647
  677
  710
  744
  780
  818
  857
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.695
  0.697
  0.694
  0.694
  0.696
  0.695
  0.697
  0.695
  0.696
  0.693
  0.693
  0.694
  0.696
  0.695
  0.693
  0.694
  0.694
  0.694
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.694
  0.696
  0.695
  0.694
  0.696
  0.694
  0.695
  0.695
  0.694
  0.695
Average production assets, $m
  59
  60
  61
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
  74
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  116
  122
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  185
  194
Working capital, $m
  117
  66
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  187
  196
  205
  215
Total debt, $m
  72
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
  128
  135
  143
  150
  159
  168
  177
  187
  197
  208
  220
  232
  245
  258
  272
  287
  303
Total liabilities, $m
  107
  104
  107
  110
  113
  116
  120
  124
  129
  133
  139
  144
  150
  156
  163
  170
  178
  185
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
  243
  255
  267
  280
  293
  307
  322
  338
Total equity, $m
  209
  160
  164
  168
  173
  179
  185
  191
  198
  205
  213
  222
  231
  240
  251
  262
  273
  285
  298
  312
  326
  341
  357
  374
  392
  410
  430
  451
  473
  496
  520
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  316
  264
  271
  278
  286
  295
  305
  315
  327
  338
  352
  366
  381
  396
  414
  432
  451
  470
  492
  515
  538
  563
  589
  617
  647
  677
  710
  744
  780
  818
  858
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.344
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.540
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.587
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  21
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  55
  59
  64
  68
  73
  79
  85
  91
  97
  104
  111
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
Funds from operations, $m
  20
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  49
  52
  56
  60
  64
  69
  74
  79
  85
  91
  97
  104
  111
  118
  126
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
Cash from operations, $m
  20
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  63
  67
  72
  77
  83
  89
  95
  102
  109
  116
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
New CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -74
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -23
Free cash flow, $m
  -54
  17
  17
  17
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  56
  60
  65
  70
  75
  81
  87
  93
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  74
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  73
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  19
  19
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  28
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  53
  57
  62
  66
  71
  77
  82
  88
  95
  102
  109
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -54
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  52
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  68
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  20
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  63
  68
  73
  79
  85
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  65
  14
  13
  13
  12
  12
  11
  11
  11
  10
  9
  9
  8
  8
  8
  7
  7
  6
  6
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

CryoLife, Inc. (CryoLife) is a medical device manufacturer and processor, and is engaged in the distribution of medical devices and implantable human tissues used in cardiac surgical procedures. The Company operates through two segments: Medical Devices and Preservation Services. The Medical Devices segment includes medical devices, such as BioGlue Surgical Adhesive, BioFoam Surgical Matrix, On-X Life Technologies Holdings, Inc. valves and surgical products, CardioGenesis cardiac laser therapy product line, PerClot and PhotoFix. PhotoFix is a pericardial patch stabilized using a dye-mediated photo-fixation process that requires no glutaraldehyde. The Preservation Services segment includes external services, such as preservation of cardiac and vascular tissues. The cardiac and vascular human tissues distributed by CryoLife include the CryoValve SG pulmonary heart valve and the CryoPatch SG pulmonary cardiac patch, both of which are processed using CryoLife's SynerGraft technology.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CryoLife (CRY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 58.3
Price to Sales 3.6
Price to Book 3.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 32
Price to Free Cash Flow 45.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 23.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 11
Current Ratio 1
LT Debt to Equity 32.1%
Total Debt to Equity 34.4%
Interest Coverage 10
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Return On Total Capital 5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Equity 6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 66.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 63.7%
EBITDA Margin 15.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Operating Margin 11.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 10%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Net Profit Margin 6.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Effective Tax Rate 38.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

CRY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CRY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $180 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CryoLife. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of CryoLife. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CRY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CRY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CryoLife, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CryoLife.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CRY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 52.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $66 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CRY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.6% for CryoLife.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CryoLife. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CRY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CRY are equal to 32.5%.

Life of production assets of 12.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CryoLife operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CRY is equal to 36.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $209 million for CryoLife - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.446 million for CryoLife is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CryoLife at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to CryoLife, Inc. : November 13, 2017   [Nov-13-17 12:07PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CryoLife, Inc. : November 3, 2017   [Nov-03-17 12:04PM  Capital Cube]
▶ CryoLife, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [06:05AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ CryoLife posts 3Q profit   [Oct-30-17 06:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ Investor Network: CryoLife, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Oct-11-17 07:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ CryoLife Announces Definitive Agreement to Acquire JOTEC   [Oct-10-17 05:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Jeffrey H. Burbank Joins CryoLife Board of Directors   [Oct-02-17 08:04AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CryoLife, Inc. : August 14, 2017   [Aug-14-17 04:26PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CryoLife, Inc. : August 4, 2017   [Aug-03-17 08:04PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Investor Network: CryoLife, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Jul-25-17 06:00AM  Accesswire]
▶ CryoLife posts 2Q profit   [Jul-24-17 10:12PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CryoLife, Inc. : June 26, 2017   [Jun-26-17 03:42PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CryoLife, Inc. : June 6, 2017   [Jun-06-17 11:39AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CryoLife, Inc. : May 22, 2017   [May-22-17 01:31PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CryoLife, Inc. : May 8, 2017   [May-08-17 04:21PM  Capital Cube]
▶ CryoLife, Inc. Value Analysis (NYSE:CRY) : April 28, 2017   [Apr-28-17 04:44PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Why CryoLife Inc. Jumped Higher   [01:20PM  Motley Fool]
▶ CryoLife posts 1Q profit   [Apr-26-17 07:18PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CryoLife, Inc. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 04:35PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Cryolife 4Q Revenues Missed Street Estimates   [Feb-17-17 02:15PM  Investopedia]
▶ CryoLife beats 4Q profit forecasts   [Feb-15-17 07:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CryoLife, Inc. : February 3, 2017   [Feb-03-17 10:35AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Is Cryolife Inc (CRY) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-04-16 10:41PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of CRY
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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